MI-11 Democratic nominee?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Jeremy Moss is most likely to be the MI-11 Democratic nominee, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Jeremy Moss appears to be the frontrunner with significant fundraising and endorsements.
- Andy Levin has name recognition but trails in fundraising and endorsements.
- The MI-11 District is an open contest, increasing competitive dynamics.
- No public polling data is available for the 2026 primary race.
- A late consolidation of challengers may shift primary momentum.
- Other candidates are running but lack significant recognition or resources.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Moss | 93.0% | 88.5% | Jeremy Moss leads in fundraising and has secured key endorsements from prominent state officials, including Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. |
| Dave Woodward | 0.6% | 0.5% | No specific justifications or significant campaign activity were reported for Dave Woodward. |
| Andy Levin | 6.3% | 5.3% | Andy Levin has name recognition and may appeal to progressive voters due to his criticism of Israeli policy. |
| Aisha Farooqi | 6.0% | 5.7% | No specific justifications or significant campaign activity were reported for Aisha Farooqi. |
Current Context
Jeremy Moss is the clear frontrunner in the MI-11 Democratic primary. The primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026, and features six candidates [^]. Prediction markets currently give Moss 79% odds to win the nomination [^]. He holds a significant financial advantage, having raised over $1 million and reporting $510,000 cash-on-hand as of December 31, 2025, leading the field in fundraising [^][^]. Moss also benefits from prominent endorsements, including Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (secured in November 2025), Jocelyn Benson, Dana Nessel, and over 60 other officials [^][^][^].
This primary contest is for an open seat in a Democratic-leaning district. The incumbent, Haley Stevens, is running for Senate, leaving the MI-11 seat open [^]. The district has a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of D+9, indicating a strong Democratic leaning [^]. Prediction markets favor a Democratic victory in the general election with 91% odds [^]. As of May 2026, no primary results have been released, and live results pages show no data for the August 4, 2026 contest [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The price chart for the "MI-11 Democratic nominee?" market indicates a strong and strengthening belief that Jeremy Moss will be the nominee. The market opened with the contract trading at a high probability of 81.0% and has since trended upward, establishing a trading range between 81.0% and its current price of 93.0%. A significant price movement was detected on or around May 07, 2026, when the price jumped 12 percentage points from 81.0% to 93.0%. However, the provided context and research do not offer a specific event or news catalyst that would explain this sharp increase in perceived probability. The price of 81.0% acted as a clear support level for a period before this spike.
Market sentiment has been consistently bullish on a "YES" outcome, reflecting reports that Moss is the frontrunner with a significant fundraising advantage. The high starting price and subsequent rally to 93.0% suggest that traders view his nomination as a highly probable event. The total volume of 3,301 contracts traded over the market's history shows a moderate level of activity. The price jump to the new high of 93.0% indicates a solidifying of market conviction, pricing in an even greater likelihood of Moss securing the nomination for the August primary.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 May 07, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 81.0% to 93.0%
Outcome: Jeremy Moss
What happened: The provided web research does not confirm a 12.0 percentage point price spike for Jeremy Moss in the "MI-11 Democratic nominee?" market on May 07, 2026 [^]. The available sources, which primarily detail candidate information for the August 4, 2026 primary [^][^], do not contain information about specific prediction market movements or their underlying causes on that date. Without confirmation of the reported price movement, it is not possible to identify a primary driver from social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors. Therefore, the role of social media in this unconfirmed market movement cannot be determined.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" resolution occurs if Jeremy Moss wins the Democratic Party's nomination for the 2026 MI-11 House seat; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market will close either after Moss secures the nomination or by November 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM EST, with projected payouts 30 minutes after closing. The outcome is verified using information from the Democratic and Republican Party organizations.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Moss | $0.92 | $0.10 | 93% |
| Andy Levin | $0.05 | $0.99 | 6% |
| Aisha Farooqi | $0.08 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Dave Woodward | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
The Democratic primary election for Michigan's 11th Congressional District is scheduled for August 4, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Four candidates have declared their intention to run: Aisha Farooqi, Jeremy Moss, John Paul Torres, and Don Ufford [^][^][^]. Prediction markets currently identify Jeremy Moss as the most likely Democratic nominee, with an 81% prediction market share, for a district considered "Solid Democratic" [^][^][^].
5. What fundraising data and key endorsements establish Jeremy Moss as the frontrunner in the MI-11 Democratic primary?
| Polymarket Nominee Prediction | Jeremy Moss at 79% (ahead of Aug. 4, 2026 primary resolution) [^] |
|---|---|
| Cash on Hand | $510,263 (as of Dec. 31, 2025) [^] |
| Key Endorsements | Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Attorney General Dana Nessel [^][^][^] |
Jeremy Moss shows a strong lead in MI-11 primary predictions. Prediction markets indicate he is positioned as a leading contender in the MI-11 Democratic primary, with Polymarket showing Moss holding 79% for the nominee outcome, significantly ahead of Andy Levin at 11%, in advance of the August 4, 2026 primary [^].
Moss also holds a significant fundraising and cash-on-hand advantage. His campaign reports raising over $1 million for the cycle and maintaining a commanding cash-on-hand lead among Democratic primary candidates [^]. Ballotpedia data for the MI-11 Democratic primary, as of December 31, 2025, details Jeremy Moss with $780,835 in receipts, $270,572 in disbursements, and a cash-on-hand balance of $510,263. These figures are considerably larger compared to most other listed candidates with available financial data [^]. Quiver Quantitative further supports his superior cash position with a reported $482,068 committee cash-on-hand in a quarterly snapshot [^].
High-level institutional support further solidifies Moss's frontrunner position. Jeremy Moss has secured key endorsements from prominent Michigan Democratic leaders, including Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, and Attorney General Dana Nessel [^][^][^]. This backing, alongside various other state, county, and local officials, highlights strong support within Michigan's Democratic establishment [^][^][^].
6. What potential catalysts or campaign missteps could shift momentum between Jeremy Moss and Andy Levin before the August 4th primary?
| Potential Momentum Shift | Andy Levin consolidating anti-establishment lane [^] |
|---|---|
| Early Optics Issue for Moss | Not living in MI-11 at announcement time [^] |
| Moss Campaign Strength | Over $1M raised and institutional endorsements [^] |
A late consolidation could significantly shift primary momentum. Currently, Jeremy Moss benefits from a fragmented field, but a late swing in vote share could trigger significant volatility if a single credible challenger successfully consolidates the anti-establishment lane. Andy Levin’s name recognition is specifically identified as a plausible vehicle for this consolidation [^][^][^].
Moss faces scrutiny regarding residency and Israel policy. He encountered an early-stage optics issue when it was reported he launched his U.S. House bid for MI-11 while not residing in the district at the time of his announcement, a detail Moss stated he planned to rectify but did not disclose publicly [^]. Furthermore, a potential clash over Israel policy could re-emerge in a primary contest between Moss and Levin, referencing prominent divisions from the 2022 matchup between Stevens and Levin, including Levin’s 'Uncommitted' advocacy [^].
Moss boasts strong fundraising and institutional endorsements. His campaign site asserts that he leads the entire field in fundraising, reporting over $1 million raised. He also claims a significant institutional endorsement slate, including Governor Whitmer, Secretary of State Benson, Attorney General Nessel, and more than 60 local and state officials. Any misstep by Moss would carry greater consequence if it were to erode this broad base of support [^].
7. How do Jeremy Moss and Andy Levin compare on policy platforms and appeal to key voter demographics within the 11th District?
| Moss Polymarket prediction | approximately 79% (Polymarket) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Levin Polymarket prediction | approximately 11% (Polymarket) [^][^] |
| Moss's stance on Israel | staunch supporter of Israel [^][^] |
Jeremy Moss and Andy Levin offer differing policy platforms and voter appeals. Moss's campaign prioritizes gun safety laws, the protection of reproductive freedom and abortion rights, measures for the workplace and housing, and expanded ballot access [^][^]. In contrast, Levin is identified as the progressive candidate and has been a vocal critic of Israeli policy [^][^][^][^]. These distinct approaches shape their appeal to various voter demographics within Michigan's 11th congressional district.
Their positions on Israel are a significant point of divergence. This topic is a crucial factor for Jewish voters in the Detroit suburbs [^][^]. Levin has openly criticized Israeli policy, supported the 'Uncommitted' campaign, and introduced the 'Two-State Solution Act' during the 2022 MI-11 Democratic primary [^][^][^]. Conversely, Moss is described as a 'staunch supporter of Israel,' aligning more with previous representatives while still framing the U.S.-Israel relationship [^][^][^].
Current prediction markets indicate Jeremy Moss leads in the primary. Polymarket shows Moss at approximately a 79% likelihood of winning the Democratic nominee in MI-11, compared to Levin at around 11% [^]. Similarly, Kalshi's market frames Moss winning the Democratic nomination as a 'Yes' outcome [^].
8. What public polling data is available for the 2026 MI-11 Democratic primary, and which firms are likely to release polls before August?
| Public Polling Results | None surfaced for 2026 MI-11 Democratic primary as of 2026-05-08 [^] |
|---|---|
| Primary Date | August 4, 2026 [^] |
| Likely Polling Firm | Glengariff Group (general Michigan Democratic Primary Survey, MI-11 specific not confirmed) [^] |
No public polling data exists for the 2026 MI-11 Democratic primary. As of May 8, 2026, no public polling results have been found for the 2026 Michigan's 11th Congressional District Democratic primary, which is scheduled for August 4, 2026. Ballotpedia reports the primary date and lists several candidates, but the retrieved sources do not surface any public polling results for this specific primary [^].
Future polling by specific firms remains unconfirmed for this primary. While the Glengariff Group is identified as a likely source for additional primary polling before August 4, due to their past work on a "Michigan August 2026 Democratic Primary Survey" for the Detroit Regional Chamber, the retrieved excerpt does not confirm MI-11-specific polling [^]. Additionally, an ELLIS Insight tag page includes an example of a poll involving Rep. Haley Stevens, but the accessible text does not clearly document it as a 2026 MI-11 Democratic primary poll for the August 4 nomination field, thus it is not considered sufficient evidence of publicly available polling [^].
9. How does the combined fundraising and endorsement strength of challengers like Andy Levin and Dave Woodward compare to that of Jeremy Moss?
| Jeremy Moss Fundraising | Exceeding $1.5 million (Polymarket) [^] |
|---|---|
| Jeremy Moss Polymarket Implied Percentage | Approximately 78.5% [^] |
| Key Endorsements for Moss | Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Sec. of State Jocelyn Benson, AG Dana Nessel, EMILYs List (Multiple sources) [^][^][^] |
Jeremy Moss significantly leads challengers in fundraising and endorsement strength. Predictive markets imply Moss holds a strong advantage with an approximate 78.5% chance of winning, according to one listing [^]. This places him considerably ahead of challenger Andy Levin at approximately 10.5% and Dave Woodward at around 2.8%, with the combined percentages of his challengers remaining far below Moss's [^].
Moss has demonstrated substantial fundraising and secured high-profile endorsements. His campaign materials report he has raised "over $1 million" in the current election cycle [^], while a predictive market event description suggests his lead is attributable to fundraising "exceeding $1.5 million" [^]. Moss has garnered significant endorsements, including from Governor Gretchen Whitmer [^][^], Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson [^], and Attorney General Dana Nessel [^]. Additionally, his campaign lists support from "more than 60" local officials [^], and a predictive market event description also mentions endorsements from EMILYs List and local unions [^].
Challengers Andy Levin and Dave Woodward lack comparable public data. Specific fundraising totals and individual endorsements for Levin and Woodward are not provided in the available information. A predictive market event description further indicates that challengers like Dave Woodward suffer from "low name recognition" and possess weaker resources despite their ballot status, highlighting a considerable disparity between Moss and his competitors [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The 2026 elections for Michigan's 11th Congressional District present an open seat, as the current U.S. Representative, Haley Stevens (D), is not seeking re-election to her House seat in 2026, opting instead to run for the U.S. Senate in Michigan [^][^][^]. This makes the district an open contest [^]. The 11th Congressional District is considered a strong Democratic stronghold, rated "Solid Democratic" by the Cook Political Report and "Safe Democratic" by Sabato's Crystal Ball, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+9 [^]. The primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^], leading to the general election on November 3, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Four Democratic candidates are currently running in the primary for Michigan's 11th Congressional District: Aisha Farooqi, Jeremy Moss, John Paul Torres, and Don Ufford [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . The outcome of this primary will be a significant factor. Key deadlines for the August 4, 2026, Primary include voter registration applications by online and mail by July 20, 2026 [^][^], and in-person by August 4, 2026 [^][^]. Absentee ballot requests sent by mail must be received by July 31, 2026 [^], with in-person requests accepted until August 3, 2026 [^]. All absentee ballots must be received by August 4, 2026 [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2026
- Closes: November 03, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The 2026 elections for Michigan's 11th Congressional District present an open seat, as the current U.S.
- Trigger: Representative, Haley Stevens (D), is not seeking re-election to her House seat in 2026, opting instead to run for the U.S.
- Trigger: Senate in Michigan [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This makes the district an open contest [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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