Indiana Republican Secretary of State nominee?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Incumbent Diego Morales leads in delegate commitments, making him the candidate to beat.
- Morales faces an ethics investigation and criticism for a pattern of negligence.
- Beau Bayh leads all competitors in fundraising with over $200,000 raised.
- Amy Shelton received a notable endorsement from former Secretary of State Charlie Lawson.
- David Shelton's campaign raised less than $50,000, trailing leading contenders.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Morales | 89.0% | 82.4% | Diego Morales is the incumbent, favored with a strong lead in delegate commitments due to insider politics. |
| David Shelton | 14.0% | 13.0% | David Shelton received a notable endorsement from former Secretary of State Charlie Lawson, positioning him as a challenger. |
| Jamie Reitenour | 5.0% | 4.6% | Jamie Reitenour is an active candidate seeking the Republican Secretary of State nomination. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Diego Morales
📉 April 27, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 90.0% to 80.0%
📈 April 22, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 75.0% to 87.0%
Outcome: David Shelton
📉 April 23, 2026: 9.1pp drop
Price decreased from 19.0% to 9.9%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A YES resolution for the Diego Morales market is triggered if Diego Morales wins the 2026 Indiana Secretary of State Republican primary, with verification from the State of Indiana. Conversely, a NO resolution occurs if he does not win. The market opens for trading on February 22, 2026, closes after the outcome occurs or by May 5, 2027, and is eligible for accelerated determination based on a consensus of media projections.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Morales | $0.89 | $0.15 | 89% |
| David Shelton | $0.15 | $0.86 | 14% |
| Jamie Reitenour | $0.01 | $1.00 | 5% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. How Many Indiana Republican County Chairs Endorse Diego Morales?
| Specific Endorsement Data | Not available in provided research [^] |
|---|---|
| Morales's Reelection Campaign Announced | Seeking 2026 Republican nomination [^] |
| Number of Indiana Republican County Party Chairs | 92 [^] |
6. What Is Conservative Group Success in Indiana Delegate Elections?
| Delegate Election Method | Elected in Republican primary elections within each county and district [^] |
|---|---|
| Organized Delegate Endorsements | Indiana Precinct Committeemen Project endorsed 12 candidates in Marion County [^] |
| Jamie Reitenour's Candidacy | Candidate for Republican nomination for Indiana Secretary of State for 2026 election [^] |
7. What Criticisms and Controversies Face Indiana Secretary of State Diego Morales?
| GOP Criticism | Accused of a "pattern of negligence" by a top GOP election official [^] |
|---|---|
| Ethics Referral | Referred for an ethics investigation by Marion County election board [^] |
| Renomination Status | Reportedly favored for renomination at the convention [^] |
8. Did David Shelton Receive Significant Indiana GOP Contributions?
| Shelton's Campaign Funds | Less than $50,000 (As of April 15, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Significant Contribution Threshold | Over $100,000 [^] |
| Beau Bayh's Campaign Funds | More than $200,000 (As of April 15, 2026) [^] |
9. What are the second-ballot projections for Indiana's Secretary of State convention?
| Diego Morales First Ballot Position | Favored candidate, strong lead [^] |
|---|---|
| Amy Shelton Endorsement | Endorsed by former Secretary of State Charlie Lawson [^] |
| Second-Ballot Projections | Not detailed in available research [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 05, 2027
- Closes: May 05, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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