NY-04 Republican nominee?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Brian Miller to be the NY-04 Republican nominee, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Nassau County GOP signals strong support for D'Esposito's 2026 candidacy.
- D'Esposito is the only candidate to file with the FEC for 2026.
- No other credible primary challengers have emerged for the nomination.
- No significant national PAC opposition targets D'Esposito's nomination.
- Don Clavin and Patricia Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick show no intent to run.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony D’Esposito | 0.4% | 20.0% | Model higher by 19.6pp |
| Don Clavin | 3.6% | 1.0% | Market higher by 2.6pp |
| Patricia Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick | 2.0% | 1.0% | Market higher by 1.0pp |
| Dennis McGrath | 14.0% | 18.0% | Model higher by 4.0pp |
| Brian Miller | 22.0% | 28.2% | Model higher by 6.2pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market exhibits a stable and sideways price trend, indicating a lack of significant new information or speculative interest. The probability has remained within an extremely narrow range, trading between a low of 0.1% and a high of 0.5%. The current price of 0.4% is very close to the starting price, reinforcing the observation of a dormant market with no clear directional bias. Given the provided context, the minor fluctuations within this channel are not attributable to any specific news or events. The price points of 0.5% and 0.1% have served as a functional resistance and support, respectively, though these levels are a product of low activity rather than strongly defended positions.
The trading volume is very low, with a total of 898 contracts traded over the market's lifetime. This light volume, often punctuated by periods of no trading activity, suggests a lack of conviction from market participants. Such patterns are common in long-term markets where there is no immediate catalyst for trading. Overall, the chart suggests that market sentiment is one of disinterest and that traders are assigning a very low, almost negligible, probability to this outcome at this early stage. The price action reflects a "wait-and-see" approach, with no significant capital being deployed to express a strong opinion.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if Brian Miller wins the Republican Party nomination for the 2026 NY-4 House seat, with the outcome verified by the Republican Party's official website (gop.com). Conversely, it resolves to "No" if he does not secure the nomination by the market's closing date. The market opened on April 3, 2026, 8:00 PM EDT, and will close either upon the outcome's occurrence or by November 3, 2026, 10:00 AM EST, with payouts expected 30 minutes after closing. Trading is prohibited for various individuals, including those with material non-public information, employees of relevant source agencies, political campaigns, polling organizations, major media decision desks, and staff from all branches of the US federal government.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Miller | $0.23 | $0.99 | 22% |
| Dennis McGrath | $0.14 | $0.99 | 14% |
| Marvin Suber Williams | $0.12 | $0.99 | 13% |
| Martin Smithmyer | $0.10 | $0.99 | 12% |
| Don Clavin | $0.04 | $0.99 | 4% |
| Patricia Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Anthony D’Esposito | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
The market currently indicates Brian Miller as the leading contender for the NY-04 Republican nomination with 22%, followed by Marvin Suber Williams (13%) and Martin Smithmyer (12%). The key discussion point highlights that Anthony D’Esposito will not be the nominee, as he reportedly missed the primary registration deadline. This solidifies a consensus among traders that D'Esposito is out of the running.
4. Who is Nassau County GOP backing for 4th Congressional District?
| Nassau GOP CD4 Stance | Signaling support for Anthony D'Esposito's anticipated run, no official nomination [^] |
|---|---|
| D'Esposito's Intentions | Reportedly intends to seek the 4th Congressional District seat [^] |
| Primary Challengers | No verified reports of Chairman recruiting challengers to D'Esposito [^] |
Nassau GOP signals support for Anthony D'Esposito's anticipated congressional candidacy. Although the Nassau County Republican Committee has not officially named a candidate for the 4th Congressional District (CD4), Chairman Joseph Cairo and the committee are signaling support for Anthony D'Esposito's expected run against Laura Gillen [^]. D'Esposito reportedly intends to seek the congressional seat he previously lost to Gillen [^]. As of early January 2026, the Nassau GOP is anticipating D'Esposito's own candidacy for the seat [^].
No verified reports exist of Cairo recruiting D'Esposito primary challengers. There are no verified reports indicating that Nassau County Republican Committee Chairman Joseph Cairo is actively recruiting potential primary challengers, such as Hempstead Town Supervisor Don Clavin, to contest Anthony D'Esposito for the CD4 nomination [^]. While Clavin was previously cross-endorsed for a judgeship in 2021, the available information does not mention him as a current challenger to D'Esposito in the congressional race [^].
5. Are Law Enforcement Unions Re-evaluating Support for Anthony D'Esposito?
| Union Re-evaluation Status | No public statements from law enforcement unions about re-evaluating support for D'Esposito's 2024 congressional run (No provided sources) [^] |
|---|---|
| Nassau County PBA Support | Affirmed support for D'Esposito in September 2023 [^] |
| Basis for Criticism | Criticisms from "some conservatives" for specific votes, not cited by unions as a basis for re-evaluation [^] |
No evidence suggests law enforcement unions are re-evaluating D'Esposito's 2024 support. Available web research indicates that specific law enforcement unions, including the NYC PBA or the Nassau County Detectives Association, have not publicly stated they are re-evaluating their support for D'Esposito. The Nassau County Police Benevolent Association (PBA) explicitly reaffirmed its support for D'Esposito in September 2023 amid ethics allegations, stating they "stand by" him [^]. While Nassau police unions did back D'Esposito's bid to lead the DEA under a potential Trump administration, this action is distinct from any re-evaluation of congressional endorsements [^].
D'Esposito has faced criticism, but not from unions for re-evaluation. Some sources note that D'Esposito has faced criticism from "some conservatives" for specific votes, such as his vote to expel George Santos or censure Representative Rashida Tlaib [^]. However, these criticisms are not attributed to law enforcement unions as a basis for re-evaluating their endorsement. D'Esposito received endorsements from the Nassau County PBA and the Detectives Association for his previous congressional run [^], but the provided sources do not mention any subsequent re-evaluation of this support for the 2024 election cycle based on roll-call votes or meetings with other candidates.
6. Can Challengers' NY-04 Funding Be Compared to D'Esposito's Q4 2025?
| Q4 2025 FEC Filing Status | Data for activities up to December 31, 2025, due late January 2026 [^], [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Challenger Candidacy Declaration | Don Clavin and Patricia Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick have not formally declared for 2026 NY-04 congressional race [^], [^] |
| Federal Campaign Finance Data | No federal campaign committees or FEC filings exist for undeclared challengers [^], [^] |
Q4 2025 financial data remains unavailable for federal candidates. It is currently not possible to determine if any declared challenger will report higher 'cash on hand' or a greater percentage of total funds from individual donors residing within NY-04 ZIP codes compared to Representative D'Esposito by the Q4 2025 FEC filing deadline. Financial data for Q4 2025, which covers activity through December 31, 2025, is not yet public, with filings typically due in late January 2026 [^], [^], [^]. While relevant FEC links for the 2026 election cycle and D'Esposito's candidate overview are available, they will only contain this specific financial information once it has been publicly filed [^], [^].
No federal candidacy declarations from potential challengers are apparent. Furthermore, research indicates that potential challengers such as Don Clavin or Patricia Canzoneri-Fitzpatrick have not formally declared their candidacy for the 2026 NY-04 congressional race. Don Clavin is currently noted as the Town of Hempstead Supervisor [^], and although his state-level campaign finance data is available for local offices, this is distinct from federal campaign filings required for a congressional race [^]. Without a formal declaration of candidacy, these individuals would not establish federal campaign committees or file financial reports with the FEC, precluding a direct financial comparison to D'Esposito's federal filings at this time [^], [^], [^].
7. Are National Conservative PACs Opposing Representative Anthony D'Esposito?
| Club for Growth Foundation Score | 63% (118th Congress) [^] |
|---|---|
| Club for Growth PAC Opposition Spending | None documented [^] |
| Club for Growth PAC Endorsements | Not among endorsed candidates [^] |
National ideological PACs show no significant opposition spending targeting D'Esposito. Web research did not find direct evidence of organizations like Club for Growth or House Freedom Action specifically targeting Representative Anthony D'Esposito's voting record with opposition spending or research. Representative D'Esposito received a score of 63% from the Club for Growth Foundation Scorecard for the 118th Congress, indicating a moderate alignment with the organization's conservative fiscal principles [^]. A review of Club for Growth's Political Action Committee (PAC) records on OpenSecrets.org revealed no independent expenditures targeting D'Esposito [^]. Information regarding House Freedom Action or similar PACs specifically targeting D'Esposito with opposition spending or research was not available in the provided sources.
Club for Growth has neither endorsed D'Esposito nor a challenger. The Club for Growth PAC has not listed D'Esposito among its endorsed candidates [^], nor do the provided sources indicate any direct contributions from their PAC to his campaigns [^]. While D'Esposito's 63% Club for Growth score suggests he is not fully aligned with the most conservative wing of the Republican party as defined by that organization, the absence of reported opposition spending or endorsements for primary challengers from prominent national ideological PACs in the available data means there is no direct evidence from these sources indicating a belief that he is vulnerable to a significant challenge from the right flank of the party based on such expenditures.
8. Are Potential Challengers Filing for New York's 4th Congressional District in 2026?
| Incumbent D'Esposito's 2026 Filing | Filed Statement of Candidacy, active committee 'DESPOSITO FOR NEW YORK' [^] |
|---|---|
| Don Clavin's 2026 Filing Status | No formal exploratory committee or candidacy filed with FEC [^] |
| Primary Poll Data Availability | No credible poll data testing a primary matchup against D'Esposito is available [1-7] [^] |
Incumbent D'Esposito is the only candidate to file for NY-4, 2026. Anthony D'Esposito, the incumbent for New York's 4th Congressional District, has officially filed a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) for the 2026 election cycle, operating under his active committee, 'DESPOSITO FOR NEW YORK' [^]. As of the current research, no other potential candidates, including Don Clavin, have filed a formal exploratory committee or a Statement of Candidacy with the FEC for the 2026 election cycle [^]. Public profiles for Donald X. Clavin indicate his focus on local government roles and do not show any federal campaign filings for 2026 [^].
No credible primary polling against D'Esposito has been identified. The available research does not contain any information about a credible poll testing a primary matchup against D'Esposito, commissioned by a potential challenger [1-7]. Additionally, there is no mention within the provided sources of any such poll results being leaked to major New York political media outlets, such as Newsday or the New York Post [1-7].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2026
- Closes: November 03, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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