Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Jerri Green to be the Tennessee Democratic Governor nominee in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Jason Kurtz's detailed progressive platform energizes the Democratic primary base.
  • Jerri Green shows strong fundraising capabilities and local grassroots support.
  • Tharon Cyr exhibits the least documented progressive cultural policy positions.
  • Carnita Atwater lacks specific distinguishing advantages in the primary race.
  • No candidate has secured specific key endorsements by early 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Jerri Green 86.0% 76.7% Market higher by 9.3pp
Adam Kurtz 11.0% 11.3% Model higher by 0.3pp
Carnita Atwater 13.0% 11.4% Market higher by 1.6pp
Tim Cyr 1.0% 0.7% Market higher by 0.3pp

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, concerning the 2026 Tennessee Democratic Governor nominee, exhibits a completely static price history. The probability has remained unchanged at its opening price of 13.0% since the market's inception. There have been no price spikes, drops, or any fluctuations whatsoever, resulting in a perfectly sideways trend. This lack of price movement indicates that no new information has been priced into the market by traders.
The key factor influencing this market's stability is the complete absence of trading activity. With zero contracts traded, the current price is not a reflection of market consensus but simply the initial price set by the market maker. Without any volume, it's impossible to gauge trader conviction or identify any meaningful patterns. The lack of trading suggests that participants are either uninterested in this long-term political event or are awaiting further developments, such as the emergence of potential candidates, before committing capital.
Due to the zero-volume environment, no technical support or resistance levels have been established. The 13.0% mark is the only price point on the chart, but it has not been tested by either buying or selling pressure. Consequently, the chart indicates a dormant market sentiment. The current price does not represent a collective forecast but rather an unanswered opening question, reflecting a state of inactivity and illiquidity far ahead of the 2026 primary election cycle.

3. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if Jerri Green wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 Tennessee Governorship, with the outcome verified by the State of Tennessee election results; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market closes upon the outcome or by August 6, 2027, at 10:00am EDT, with payouts projected 5 minutes thereafter. Trading is prohibited for specific groups, including public office holders, campaign staffers, and employees of certain polling or media organizations.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Jerri Green $0.89 $0.13 86%
Carnita Atwater $0.07 $0.98 13%
Adam Kurtz $0.10 $0.98 11%
Tim Cyr $0.05 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

4. Which 2026 TN Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates Lead In-State Fundraising?

Identified CandidatesAtwater, Cyr, Green, and Kurtz for 2026 TN Democratic primary [^]
Specific Financial DataNot available for in-state vs. total haul for candidates [^]
Jerri Green FundraisingDemonstrated strong fundraising capabilities but specific breakdowns not detailed [^]
Specific in-state fundraising for candidates cannot be determined by Q1 2026. It is not possible to ascertain which of the 2026 Tennessee Democratic gubernatorial primary candidates—Carnita Atwater, Tharon Cyr, Jerri Green, or Jason Kurtz—will have raised the most money specifically from in-state Tennessee donors by the Q1 2026 campaign finance filing deadline, nor what percentage of their total contributions this represents [^].
Campaign finance details for in-state contributions are largely unavailable. While Memphis Councilwoman Jerri Green is recognized for her "strong fundraising capabilities" and her campaign's emphasis on "strong local grassroots support," public summaries do not explicitly detail specific breakdowns of in-state versus out-of-state contributions for her most recent period [^]. For candidates Carnita Atwater, Tharon Cyr, and Jason Kurtz, the provided research does not include any specific campaign finance data, such as total contributions or a breakdown of in-state Tennessee donors [^]. Therefore, a comparative assessment of in-state fundraising and its proportion of their total haul cannot be made due to the absence of this specific financial data in the available sources.

5. Have Tennessee Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates Secured Key Endorsements?

Current Democratic Legislator EndorsementsNone (as of March 31, 2026) [^]
Major City Mayor EndorsementsNone (as of March 31, 2026) [^]
Assessment DeadlineMarch 31, 2026 [^]
No candidate secured specific endorsements by March 31, 2026. As of the March 31, 2026 deadline, no Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Tennessee has publicly obtained endorsements from any current Democratic state legislators or the mayors of Tennessee's four largest cities: Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, or Chattanooga [^]. While numerous candidates are actively campaigning and soliciting support, no official endorsements meeting these precise criteria had been announced by the specified date [^].
Several announced endorsements fall outside the specified criteria. For instance, candidate Jerri Green received an endorsement in January 2026 from a former Republican House Speaker; however, this does not align with the criteria of current Democratic state legislators or the stipulated city mayors [^]. Additionally, endorsements such as those for Mark Proctor for State House District 59 by former Governor Phil Bredesen and Rep. Caleb Hemmer are for a State House race, not the gubernatorial election, and therefore do not satisfy the question's requirements [^]. Consequently, based on the available information, no candidate has met the specified endorsement criteria by the March 31, 2026 deadline [^].

6. Which 2026 Tennessee Democratic Candidate Targets Suburban Voters Most?

Specific Voter TargetingNo specific information available for 2026 Democratic candidates targeting suburban voters in collar counties [^], [^], [^]
Candidate Jerri Green FocusPublic education, reproductive freedom, common-sense gun safety (platform mentioned) [^]
Candidate Adam Kurtz FocusUniversal Basic Income, Medicare for All, legalizing cannabis (platform mentioned) [^]
The current research does not identify a candidate targeting suburban voters. An analysis of the candidates' paid media strategies and public appearances does not provide specific details on which Democratic candidate for the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial primary is most heavily focusing their messaging on suburban voters in the collar counties around Nashville and Memphis. The available sources discuss general candidate platforms but lack specific analyses of media strategies or public appearance messaging tailored to these particular demographics [^], [^], [^].
Candidate platforms outline general policy priorities, not targeted outreach. Candidates such as Jerri Green and Adam "Ditch" Kurtz have outlined their policy priorities. Green's platform includes public education, reproductive freedom, and gun safety [^], while Kurtz advocates for Universal Basic Income, Medicare for All, and cannabis legalization [^]. However, the provided research does not specify whether these policy discussions are part of a targeted outreach strategy aimed at suburban voters in the critical collar counties around Nashville and Memphis [^], [^].
General election overviews do not provide specific targeting details. The collected information primarily offers general overviews of the election, candidate lists, and broad platform discussions [^], [^], [^], [^], [^], [^]. While challenges for Democrats in Tennessee are noted, and the general need to mobilize voters is mentioned, granular details about individual candidates' specific efforts to appeal to swing demographics like suburban voters are absent. Therefore, identifying which candidate is most concentrating their messaging on this particular segment is not possible from the given research [^].

7. Does Tim Cyr Hold Progressive Stances on National Cultural Issues?

Tim Cyr's Progressive StanceLeast documented on national cultural issues [^]
Adam Kurtz's Progressive StanceAdvocates for abortion access, cannabis legalization, anti-vouchers [^]
Carnita Atwater's Progressive StanceSupports Roe v. Wade, assault weapon bans, LGBTQ+ equality [^]
Tim Cyr demonstrates the least documented progressive stance on national cultural issues. His campaign materials and public statements emphasize economic development, job creation, and improvements to infrastructure and public education within Tennessee [^]. Documentation from available sources does not indicate specific progressive-coded stances from Cyr on national cultural issues such as abortion rights, LGBTQ+ protections, or gun control, beyond general calls for improvement and prosperity [^].
Other candidates explicitly articulate progressive positions on various cultural issues. Adam "Ditch" Kurtz advocates for "The Right to Choose," supports cannabis legalization, and opposes school vouchers [^]. Carnita Atwater's platform includes supporting Roe v. Wade, banning assault weapons, raising the minimum age for gun purchases, prohibiting gender discrimination, and advocating for single-payer healthcare [^]. Similarly, Jerri Green's platform clearly states support for codifying abortion access, protecting LGBTQ+ rights, advocating for common-sense gun safety laws, and fully funding public education while opposing vouchers [^]. Thus, Tim Cyr's documented history lacks the specific progressive-coded positions on national cultural issues found in the other candidates' platforms.

8. What is the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial primary filing deadline?

Candidate Filing DeadlineApril 3, 2026, 12:00 PM (noon) Central Standard Time [^]
Primary Election DateAugust 6, 2026 [^]
Pre-Deadline Predictive EventsNo information found regarding influential caucuses or straw polls [^]
The filing deadline for the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial primary is April 3, 2026. Candidates seeking to run for Governor in the August 6, 2026, State Primary Election must submit their qualifications by 12:00 PM (noon) Central Standard Time on this date [^]. A key part of the qualification process for aspiring candidates involves gathering a specific number of signatures on nominating petitions [^].
No influential pre-primary party events were identified in the research. The available research does not contain information regarding influential state or local party caucuses or straw polls that have historically predicted the eventual nominee before the April 3, 2026, filing deadline [^]. The scope of the research primarily covers official election procedures, crucial dates, and general election details, rather than focusing on pre-primary political events.

9. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis unavailable.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: August 06, 2027
  • Closes: August 06, 2027

10. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.

12. Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.