Tennessee Democratic Governor nominee?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Jason Kurtz's detailed progressive platform energizes the Democratic primary base.
- Jerri Green shows strong fundraising capabilities and local grassroots support.
- Tharon Cyr exhibits the least documented progressive cultural policy positions.
- Carnita Atwater lacks specific distinguishing advantages in the primary race.
- No candidate has secured specific key endorsements by early 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jerri Green | 86.0% | 76.7% | Market higher by 9.3pp |
| Adam Kurtz | 11.0% | 11.3% | Model higher by 0.3pp |
| Carnita Atwater | 13.0% | 11.4% | Market higher by 1.6pp |
| Tim Cyr | 1.0% | 0.7% | Market higher by 0.3pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Jerri Green wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 Tennessee Governorship, with the outcome verified by the State of Tennessee election results; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market closes upon the outcome or by August 6, 2027, at 10:00am EDT, with payouts projected 5 minutes thereafter. Trading is prohibited for specific groups, including public office holders, campaign staffers, and employees of certain polling or media organizations.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jerri Green | $0.89 | $0.13 | 86% |
| Carnita Atwater | $0.07 | $0.98 | 13% |
| Adam Kurtz | $0.10 | $0.98 | 11% |
| Tim Cyr | $0.05 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Which 2026 TN Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates Lead In-State Fundraising?
| Identified Candidates | Atwater, Cyr, Green, and Kurtz for 2026 TN Democratic primary [^] |
|---|---|
| Specific Financial Data | Not available for in-state vs. total haul for candidates [^] |
| Jerri Green Fundraising | Demonstrated strong fundraising capabilities but specific breakdowns not detailed [^] |
5. Have Tennessee Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates Secured Key Endorsements?
| Current Democratic Legislator Endorsements | None (as of March 31, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Major City Mayor Endorsements | None (as of March 31, 2026) [^] |
| Assessment Deadline | March 31, 2026 [^] |
6. Which 2026 Tennessee Democratic Candidate Targets Suburban Voters Most?
| Specific Voter Targeting | No specific information available for 2026 Democratic candidates targeting suburban voters in collar counties [^], [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Candidate Jerri Green Focus | Public education, reproductive freedom, common-sense gun safety (platform mentioned) [^] |
| Candidate Adam Kurtz Focus | Universal Basic Income, Medicare for All, legalizing cannabis (platform mentioned) [^] |
7. Does Tim Cyr Hold Progressive Stances on National Cultural Issues?
| Tim Cyr's Progressive Stance | Least documented on national cultural issues [^] |
|---|---|
| Adam Kurtz's Progressive Stance | Advocates for abortion access, cannabis legalization, anti-vouchers [^] |
| Carnita Atwater's Progressive Stance | Supports Roe v. Wade, assault weapon bans, LGBTQ+ equality [^] |
8. What is the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial primary filing deadline?
| Candidate Filing Deadline | April 3, 2026, 12:00 PM (noon) Central Standard Time [^] |
|---|---|
| Primary Election Date | August 6, 2026 [^] |
| Pre-Deadline Predictive Events | No information found regarding influential caucuses or straw polls [^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: August 06, 2027
- Closes: August 06, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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