MN-02 Democratic nominee?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Incumbent Representative Craig is not endorsing any MN-02 successor.
- Major DFL labor groups have not endorsed any MN-02 candidate.
- No MN-02 campaign has hired a proven primary-winning manager yet.
- Superior grassroots support for named candidates cannot be determined now.
- No named candidate shows strong differentiating factors; the field is open.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Little | 69.0% | 76.4% | Matt Little is a key candidate for the Democratic nomination in MN-02. |
| Matt Klein | 12.0% | 14.4% | Matt Klein benefits from his State Senate role, providing name recognition and an established political network. |
| Kaela Berg | 9.1% | 9.3% | Kaela Berg is an active candidate seeking the Democratic nomination in MN-02. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 22, 2026: 30.0pp spike
Price increased from 43.0% to 73.0%
Outcome: Matt Little
📈 April 16, 2026: 41.6pp spike
Price increased from 4.4% to 46.0%
Outcome: Matt Little
📉 April 15, 2026: 48.6pp drop
Price decreased from 53.0% to 4.4%
Outcome: Matt Little
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "Yes" resolution occurs if Matt Little wins the Democratic (DFL) Party nomination for the 2026 MN-02 House seat; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opens on July 2, 2025, at 10:00am EDT, and closes either upon Matt Little's nomination or by November 3, 2026, at 10:00am EST, with payout projected 30 minutes after closing. The outcome will be verified by the Democratic Party, and the event is noted as mutually exclusive.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Little | $0.70 | $0.31 | 69% |
| Matt Klein | $0.13 | $0.88 | 12% |
| Kaela Berg | $0.14 | $0.94 | 9% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Has Rep. Angie Craig endorsed a successor for her MN-02 seat?
| Angie Craig Re-election Status | Not seeking re-election for U.S. House in 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Angie Craig Senate Bid Announcement | April 2025 [^] |
| MN-02 Successor Endorsement | No public endorsement or private signal [^] |
6. Can MN-02 Candidate Grassroots Support Be Directly Compared?
| Direct Donor Comparison Feasibility | Not definitively possible from provided sources [^] |
|---|---|
| Required Data for Analysis | Detailed itemized individual contribution filings from FEC [^] |
| Initial Step for Comparison | Identify relevant zip codes within Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District [^] |
7. Have SEIU MN and AFL-CIO Endorsed 2026 MN-02 Nominee?
| SEIU MN State Council 2026 Endorsements | No candidate listed for MN-02 [^] |
|---|---|
| SEIU MN State Council 2025 Endorsements | No endorsement for MN-02 race [^] |
| MN AFL-CIO Angie Craig Endorsement | Issued October 2024 for re-election, not explicitly 2026 [^] |
8. Have MN-02 DFL 2026 Campaigns Hired Proven Primary Winning Managers?
| MN-02 DFL 2026 Candidates | Kaela Berg, Matt Klein, Matt Little [^] |
|---|---|
| Campaign Manager/Firm Details | Not available for listed candidates' campaigns [^] |
| Identified Non-Qualifying Roles | Alyse Maye Quade (MN DFL Coordinated Campaign Director) [^], Daniel Cox (Erin Murphy for Senate Campaign Manager) [^], Bowen Cochran (City Council Campaign Manager) [^] |
9. What are the latest updates for Minnesota's 2026 Governor Election?
| Walz's Initial Stance | Bullish about a third term [^] |
|---|---|
| Walz's 2026 Decision | Will not seek re-election [^] |
| Klobuchar's 2026 Bid | Will run for Minnesota Governor [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2026
- Closes: November 03, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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