TN-08 House winner?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that the Republican party is most likely to win the TN-08 House election, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Incumbent David Kustoff holds a substantial cash-on-hand advantage.
- TN-08 is a heavily Republican district with an R+22 PVI.
- Kustoff maintains strong institutional support from agricultural organizations.
- Democratic PACs are not significantly targeting incumbent David Kustoff.
- Challenger Sarah Freeman faces significant financial and partisan hurdles.
- No non-partisan public polls are currently projected for the TN-08 race.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican party | 94.9% | 97.8% | Model higher by 2.9pp |
| Democratic party | 5.0% | 2.2% | Market higher by 2.8pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The price chart for the "TN-08 House winner?" market displays a completely flat and static trend. The probability has held steady at 5.0% since the market's inception, with no deviations, spikes, or drops across all 270 data points. This lack of movement indicates a market with no price discovery or reaction to any external factors. The starting price, current price, and the entire price range are all identical at 5.0%.
The primary reason for the static price is the complete absence of trading activity. The total volume traded is zero contracts, meaning no buy or sell orders have ever been matched. Therefore, the price shown is likely the initial probability set by the market creator and does not reflect any collective belief or shifting sentiment from traders. Without any trading, there are no price movements to correlate with news or other developments.
This zero-volume environment means that standard technical analysis concepts like support and resistance levels are not applicable, as these are formed by trader activity at specific price points. The chart suggests a complete lack of market interest and conviction. The sentiment reflected is solely that of the initial market setup, which priced the outcome as a highly improbable event at 5.0%. The market is entirely illiquid, and the chart simply represents an un-traded opening offer rather than an active forecast.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves to "Yes" if the House member sworn in for TN-08 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, and "No" otherwise. The market opens on January 6, 2026, closes on November 3, 2027, with a projected payout on November 3, 2027. The outcome is verified by the Library of Congress, and the market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican party | $0.95 | $0.07 | 95% |
| Democratic party | $0.05 | $0.95 | 5% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. What is the Q3 2023 Cash-on-Hand Differential in TN's 8th District?
| David Kustoff Cash-on-Hand (Q3 2023) | $1,617,599 [^] |
|---|---|
| Sarah Freeman Cash-on-Hand (Q3 2023) | $19,414 [^] |
| Cash-on-Hand Differential (Q3 2023) | $1,598,185 [^] |
Q3 2024 FEC filings are not yet available for review. The requested data regarding the cash-on-hand differential between David Kustoff and Sarah Freeman for Q3 2024 cannot be determined from the provided research. The most current campaign finance information available for both candidates reflects their Q3 2023 filings, covering data through September 30, 2023, for the 2024 election cycle.
Incumbent Republican David Kustoff held a significant cash-on-hand advantage. As of September 30, 2023, David Kustoff, the incumbent Republican for Tennessee's 8th congressional district, reported a cash-on-hand balance of $1,617,599 [^]. This figure represents his financial standing at the close of Q3 2023.
Democratic candidate Sarah Freeman reported a much smaller cash-on-hand. Sarah Freeman, the nominated Democratic candidate, had a cash-on-hand balance of $19,414 as of September 30, 2023 [^]. Based on these Q3 2023 figures, the cash-on-hand differential between David Kustoff and Sarah Freeman was $1,598,185, favoring Kustoff.
5. What Are Tennessee's Voter Registration Trends by Party Affiliation?
| Voter Registration Method | Voters do not register by political party [^] |
|---|---|
| Party Preference Indication | Participation in partisan primary elections [^] |
| Shelby County Registered Voters | Over 600,000 (October 2023) [^] |
Tennessee voters do not register by political party affiliation [^] . Official state data cannot track voter registration trends based on party affiliation, as voters indicate their party preference by participating in a partisan primary election, not by registering with a specific party [^]. This system means that specific voter registration trends by party affiliation for any geographic area within Tennessee, including the suburban Shelby County portions of TN-08, cannot be provided using official registration data.
Granular geographic voter registration data is not publicly available [^] . While general voter registration numbers for Shelby County indicate over 600,000 registered voters as of October 2023 [^], official sources like the Tennessee Secretary of State and the Shelby County Election Commission typically provide election statistics and voter registration reports at a county or statewide level [^]. These sources do not offer breakdowns into specific congressional district portions or suburban subsets within a county, making granular data for "suburban Shelby County portions of TN-08" publicly inaccessible [^].
A precise analysis of voter trends is not currently feasible [^] . Given that TN-08 encompasses parts of Shelby County, and the available data does not provide voter registration statistics specific to "suburban Shelby County portions" or by party affiliation, a precise analysis of trends for this specific demographic and geographic area since the 2022 midterm elections is not possible using official sources [^]. The general Shelby County registration figures offer the closest approximation of overall voter base changes within the larger county.
6. Have Tennessee Farm Bureau, NCCA Maintained Support for David Kustoff in 2024?
| TN Farm Bureau Award | Friend of Tennessee Farm Bureau award in late 2024 [^] |
|---|---|
| NCCA Contribution | $15,000 for 2024 election cycle [^] |
| Overall Support Status | Neither organization withheld or shifted support for 2024 election [^] |
The Tennessee Farm Bureau maintains strong support for David Kustoff. In late 2024, the organization recognized Congressman Kustoff with its 'Friend of Tennessee Farm Bureau' award, acknowledging his consistent voting record in favor of agriculture and signaling a positive relationship for future legislative work. This award highlights his ongoing advocacy for Tennessee farmers, confirming continued support rather than a shift or withdrawal [^].
The National Cotton Council provides continued financial backing to Kustoff. For the 2024 election cycle, records show the National Cotton Council of America (NCCA) contributed $15,000 to David Kustoff's campaign. This financial contribution demonstrates sustained support from the NCCA, confirming that they have not withheld or shifted their endorsement for his 2024 general election campaign [^].
7. Are Democratic PACs targeting David Kustoff on infrastructure, agriculture?
| General Ad Spending Trend | Early 2026 political ad spending topped $1 billion [^] |
|---|---|
| Democratic PAC Target Focus | House Majority PAC and DNC targeting other Republicans, not Kustoff on these issues [^] |
| Local Opposition Instance | Jackson residents questioned Kustoff's 'Big Beautiful Bill' [^] |
Democratic PACs have not significantly targeted David Kustoff on local infrastructure or agricultural subsidies. Research indicates no significant negative ad spending by Democratic PACs specifically targeting Representative David Kustoff's voting record on local infrastructure projects or agricultural subsidies within the TN-08 district. This finding is based on an examination of available web research, including information typically tracked by media monitoring services like AdImpact.
Broader political ad spending trends exceed $1 billion for early 2026. The wider landscape of political advertising shows early 2026 spending has already surpassed $1 billion [^], with AdImpact providing projections for future expenditures [^]. While Democratic PACs, including the House Majority PAC [^] and the Democratic National Committee, have targeted other Republican figures with specific ad campaigns [^], these efforts have not focused on Representative Kustoff concerning local infrastructure or agricultural subsidies.
Local residents raised concerns about Kustoff's support for a specific bill. In one instance, a group of Jackson residents expressed concerns regarding Representative Kustoff's support of a 'Big Beautiful Bill' at a local gathering and through a letter [^]. However, this activity is characterized as a local initiative rather than a significant negative ad spending campaign by Democratic PACs, as would be tracked by media monitoring services.
8. Will TN-08 See Non-Partisan FiveThirtyEight Polls Before Election?
| TN-08 Polling Availability | No non-partisan, public polls from C-rated or higher FiveThirtyEight pollsters indicated [^] |
|---|---|
| Cook Political Report PVI | R+22 [^] |
| PVI Interpretation | District votes 22 percentage points more Republican than national average [^] |
No non-partisan public polls are currently projected for the TN-08 race. Current web research does not indicate that any non-partisan, public polls from C-rated or higher FiveThirtyEight pollsters will be conducted for Tennessee's 8th Congressional District race before the election [^]. The available sources provide general information on the district and election markets but do not forecast future specific polling activities for this particular congressional contest [^].
TN-08 district has R+22 PVI; no poll comparison possible. The Cook Political Report assigns Tennessee's 8th Congressional District a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of R+22 [^]. This index signifies that the district votes 22 percentage points more Republican than the national average [^]. Without any specific poll data from the TN-08 race, it is currently not possible to compare a poll margin to this established R+22 PVI [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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