NY-17 Democratic nominee?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing: Cait Conley at 33.0% model vs 50.0% market, suggesting a more cautious assessment of her prospects for the NY-17 Democratic nomination.
1. Executive Verdict
- Josh Chatzky led Q1 2026 fundraising with strong small-dollar support.
- Cait Conley was second in Q1 2026 fundraising with robust local support.
- Beth Davidson held a commanding 41% lead in January 2026 public polling.
- Mondaire Jones and Liz Gereghty significantly trailed in January 2026 polling.
- George Latimer lacks public polling and fundraising data despite debate participation.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beth Davidson | 43.0% | 28.8% | Identified as a relevant candidate with significant evidence for evaluation in early research. |
| Cait Conley | 50.0% | 33.0% | Identified as a relevant candidate with significant evidence for evaluation in early research. |
| Peter Chatzky | 5.3% | 8.1% | Identified as a relevant candidate with significant evidence for evaluation in early research. |
| Effie Phillips-Staley | 12.0% | 13.4% | Lacked sufficient positive evidence to be considered a strong contender in early assessments. |
| Jessica Reinmann | 3.0% | 3.6% | No specific evaluation details were provided for this candidate in the research context. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the provided chart data, the prediction market for the NY-17 Democratic nominee has been trading in a relatively stable, sideways pattern. The price has been confined to a 15-point range between 42.0% and 57.0%, starting at 52.0% and currently sitting at 50.0%. This indicates a lack of a strong, sustained trend in either direction. The most significant price movement was a sharp 12-percentage-point spike on April 27, 2026, when the probability jumped from 42.0% to 54.0%. However, this gain was not sustained, and the price has since drifted back to the midpoint of its trading range.
The provided context does not offer a specific news event or development to explain the cause of the sharp price increase on April 27. The total trading volume of 857 contracts over 177 data points, along with zero-volume days in the sample data, suggests that market activity may be inconsistent. This can sometimes lead to significant price swings on relatively small trades. The historical price action has established a support level around 42.0% and a resistance level near 57.0%. The current price of 50.0% is a key psychological level, suggesting the market is highly uncertain and views the outcome as a toss-up. Overall market sentiment appears indecisive, reflecting a lack of consensus on who will ultimately secure the nomination.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Cait Conley
📈 April 27, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 42.0% to 54.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Beth Davidson
📉 April 16, 2026: 29.0pp drop
Price decreased from 67.0% to 38.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 15, 2026: 54.0pp spike
Price increased from 13.0% to 67.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Cait Conley wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 NY-17 House seat, with the outcome verified by the Democratic Party; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on September 11, 2025, at 10:00 AM EDT and will close either upon Cait Conley securing the nomination or by November 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM EST, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cait Conley | $0.54 | $0.52 | 50% |
| Beth Davidson | $0.43 | $0.64 | 43% |
| Effie Phillips-Staley | $0.14 | $0.88 | 12% |
| Peter Chatzky | $0.02 | $1.00 | 5% |
| John Cappello | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Mike Sacks | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Jessica Reinmann | $0.01 | $1.00 | 3% |
| John Sullivan | $0.04 | $1.00 | 3% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. How Did NY-17 Candidates Fundraise in Q1 2026 Filings?
| Josh Chatzky Total Raised | $350,000 (Q1 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Cait Conley Total Raised | $280,000 (Q1 2026) [^] |
| Cait Conley In-District Small-Dollar Percentage | 23.2% ($65,000) [^] |
Josh Chatzky and Cait Conley led Q1 2026 NY-17 primary fundraising. In the first quarter of 2026, these two candidates emerged as the top fundraisers in New York's 17th Congressional District Democratic primary, according to FEC filings [^]. Chatzky's campaign reported total receipts of approximately $350,000, while Conley's campaign recorded approximately $280,000 for the same period [^].
Conley sourced a larger percentage from in-district small-dollar donors. Contributions from in-district small-dollar donors (under $200) amounted to approximately $65,000 for Conley's campaign, representing 23.2% of her total Q1 2026 receipts [^]. In comparison, Chatzky's campaign raised an estimated $70,000 from donors within NY-17, accounting for 20.0% of his total [^].
Chatzky received a higher percentage of out-of-state PAC contributions. Funds originating from out-of-state Political Action Committees show that Chatzky's campaign received an estimated $25,000, comprising 7.1% of his total Q1 2026 fundraising [^]. Conley's campaign drew a smaller proportion from these sources, with approximately $15,000, or 5.4%, of her Q1 2026 funds coming from out-of-state PACs [^].
6. Has the New York WFP endorsed a candidate for NY-17 Democratic primary?
| WFP NY-17 Primary Endorsement Status | Not formally endorsed a specific candidate [^] |
|---|---|
| NY-17 Democratic Primary Date | June 23, 2026 [^] |
| Official Endorsement Sources Checked | WFP's "Our 2026 Candidates" page [^] and Ballotpedia [^] |
The WFP has not endorsed a candidate for NY-17 primary. The New York Working Families Party (WFP) has not formally endorsed a specific candidate for the New York's 17th Congressional District Democratic primary, which is scheduled for June 23, 2026 [^]. Neither the WFP's official "Our 2026 Candidates" page [^] nor Ballotpedia's comprehensive list of WFP endorsements in New York [^] currently indicate an endorsement for this particular race. An endorsement for the NY-17 Democratic primary for 2026 has also not been publicly announced or listed among other available sources [^].
The WFP regularly endorses, but not for this specific race. While the WFP routinely issues endorsements for various federal, state, and local offices, including early endorsements in some cases [^], an official decision for this specific district and primary election cycle has yet to be made or publicly disclosed. The party's endorsement process typically aims to consolidate progressive votes in crowded Democratic primaries.
7. Which Candidate Spends Most on Direct Voter Contact in NY-17?
| Direct Voter Contact Analysis | Not possible due to inaccessible FEC financial data [^] |
|---|---|
| Required Data for Analysis | Payroll for field staff, canvassing materials, GOTV digital advertising (Specific figures unavailable) [^] |
| NY-17 Democratic Primary Candidates | Cait Conley, Beth Davidson, Effie Phillips-Staley (Spending details not provided) [^] |
Detailed analysis of direct voter contact spending is not currently possible. A comprehensive analysis of campaign expenditures for direct voter contact, encompassing payroll for field staff, canvassing materials, and get-out-the-vote (GOTV) digital advertising, cannot be conducted. This is because the necessary detailed financial data from Federal Election Commission (FEC) disclosure forms is not accessible within the research results [^]. Direct access to and review of the full content of these FEC disclosure forms is required to specify allocations for these items.
Candidate FEC filings are identified, but specific spending details are missing. While candidates such as Cait Conley, Beth Davidson, and Effie Phillips-Staley are identified as running in the 2026 New York's 17th Congressional District Democratic primary, and their FEC filings are noted, the actual line-item financial data within these reports was not provided [^]. Therefore, a comparison of their direct voter contact spending is not feasible without direct access to and review of these complete financial reports.
8. Does Polling Show a Geographic Split in NY-17 Democratic Primary?
| Overall Lead | Beth Davidson (41%) [^] |
|---|---|
| Westchester County Lead | Beth Davidson (41%) [^] |
| Rockland County Lead | Beth Davidson (41%) [^] |
No public or leaked internal polling indicates a significant geographic split in NY-17 voter preferences. Available data does not show one candidate dominating decisively in Westchester County while a different candidate leads in Rockland County; instead, polling indicates a consistent lead for the same candidate across both counties [^].
Beth Davidson consistently leads the Democratic Primary across both counties, according to recent polling. A public memo from EMILY's List, referencing a Change Research poll conducted from January 24-29, 2026, revealed Beth Davidson holds a commanding lead in the Democratic Primary with 41% of the overall vote [^]. This poll specifically indicated Beth Davidson leading with 41% in Westchester County and an identical 41% in Rockland County among likely Democratic primary voters, demonstrating a unified lead rather than divided preferences between the major counties [^].
Endorsement discussions do not indicate a geographic polling split, despite some local committee deliberations. While local Democratic committees have engaged in endorsement processes, such as the Westchester Democrats choosing not to endorse due to a close race between Davidson and Conley [^], these discussions do not reflect a geographic split in voter preference suggested by polling data. The most direct polling information available consistently points to one leading candidate across both counties [^].
9. When and Where Were NY-17 Democratic Primary Debates Held?
| Westchester Debate Date | April 14, 2026 (Yonkers) [^] |
|---|---|
| Rockland Debate Date | April 15, 2026 (Haverstraw) [^] |
| Participating Candidates | Mondaire Jones, Liz Gereghty, George Latimer [^] |
Two primary debates were sanctioned by county Democratic committees in April 2026 for New York's 17th Congressional District. The Westchester County Democratic Committee hosted a debate on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, in Yonkers [^]. The following day, Wednesday, April 15, 2026, the Rockland County Democratic Committee hosted another debate in Haverstraw [^]. These events were highlighted as the "two significant debates this week" for the district's Democratic primary contenders [^].
Three leading candidates participated in both sanctioned primary debates for the district. Mondaire Jones, Liz Gereghty, and George Latimer participated in both the Westchester and Rockland County Democratic Committee debates [^]. While sources referred to these individuals as "leading candidates" and "frontrunners" [^], there was no explicit detail regarding specific polling or fundraising thresholds required for their participation. Their inclusion in these debates, organized by the respective county Democratic committees, implies they met the organizers' criteria for involvement [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2026
- Closes: November 03, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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