2028 Republican VP nominee
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Donald Trump repeatedly and explicitly endorsed JD Vance as a 2028 successor.
- JD Vance demonstrated significant national fundraising appeal in 2026 midterms.
- JD Vance dominated 2026 and 2028 CPAC presidential straw polls.
- Donald Trump frequently mentioned Marco Rubio for a potential 2028 ticket.
- Research lacks specific endorsements or detailed roles for Youngkin and Stefanik.
- Research does not identify a consensus compensatory VP candidate for 2028.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | 27.0% | 29.9% | Frequently mentioned by Donald Trump as a potential 2028 running mate. |
| J.D. Vance | 6.3% | 11.7% | Donald Trump has explicitly endorsed him as a 'likely heir apparent' and potential Vice President. |
| Erika Kirk | 7.4% | 8.4% | Specific supporting evidence is not available in the provided research. |
| Donald J. Trump | 4.6% | 5.3% | Specific supporting evidence is not available in the provided research. |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 3.0% | 3.5% | Specific supporting evidence is not available in the provided research. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to 'Yes' if Marco Rubio accepts the 2028 Republican Vice Presidential nomination, with the outcome verified by the Republican Party; otherwise, it resolves to 'No' as the event is mutually exclusive. It opened on December 4, 2024, and closes upon the Republican party's acceptance of a Presidential nominee or by November 7, 2028, at 10:00 am EST. Payout occurs 30 minutes after closing, and employees of the Republican Party are prohibited from trading.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | $0.27 | $0.75 | 27% |
| Erika Kirk | $0.07 | $0.95 | 7% |
| J.D. Vance | $0.07 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | $0.06 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Glenn Youngkin | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Donald J. Trump | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Elise Stefanik | $0.04 | $0.98 | 4% |
| Katie Britt | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | $0.05 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | $0.03 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Brian Kemp | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Byron Donalds | $0.04 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Greg Abbott | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Ted Cruz | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Josh Hawley | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Nikki Haley | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| John Thune | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Ron DeSantis | $0.03 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Matt Gaetz | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Elon Musk | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Who Did Donald Trump Endorse as Potential 2028 Successors?
| Top Individual Endorsement | JD Vance as "Most Likely" MAGA Heir (August 2025) [^] |
|---|---|
| Key Joint Endorsement | Vance-Rubio ticket "hard to be beaten" (Explicit) [^] |
| Vance's Role Designation | "Vice President JD Vance" in charge of "FRAUD" [^] |
5. What Fundraising Role Did JD Vance Play in 2026 Midterms?
| JD Vance RNC Fundraisers | Multiple events in FL, WY, MT (January 2026, July 2025) [^] |
|---|---|
| JD Vance Fundraising Initiative | Launched National Fundraising Tour (ahead of Congressional Elections) [^] |
| President Trump NRCC Dinner | Raised $36.8 million (March 25, 2026) [^] |
6. Which Republican VP Candidate Compensates for Frontrunner Weakness in 2028?
| Potential VP Candidate with Regional Appeal | JD Vance (Rust Belt appeal) [^] |
|---|---|
| Other Potential VP Candidate | Marco Rubio [^] |
| Another Potential VP Candidate | Glenn Youngkin [^] |
7. Can 2028 Nominee Guest Appearances on Fox News and Newsmax Be Tracked?
| Requested Data Timeframe | January 2027 through end of 2028 presidential primary season (Data not available) [^] |
|---|---|
| Potential Nominees Identified | JD Vance, Elise Stefanik [^], [^] |
| Available Data Examples | JD Vance 2024 [^], [^], [^], [^] and April 2026 [^]; Elise Stefanik November 2024 [^] and April 2025 [^] |
8. Do CPAC Straw Polls Show VP Nomination Trends (2025-2028)?
| CPAC VP Straw Poll Data (2025-2028) | Not available in provided research for Vice Presidential nomination [^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 CPAC Presidential Straw Poll Winner | J.D. Vance [^] |
| 2028 CPAC Presidential Straw Poll Leader | J.D. Vance (53%), Marco Rubio (35%) [^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 07, 2028
- Closes: November 07, 2028
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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