How many House seats will Democrats win in Alabama?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing for Democrats winning 0 House seats in Alabama, with an 84.0% model probability versus 12.0% market probability. This suggests the market may be underestimating the likelihood of the congressional map reverting to a 6R-1D configuration, which could reduce Democratic representation.
1. Executive Verdict
- Alabama Republicans are actively working to implement a new congressional map.
- State motions filed in May 2026 may vacate the current federal injunction.
- The SCOTUS Callais ruling strengthens the state's position for a 6R-1D map.
- Kalshi market data shows notable drop in confidence for the AL-02 Democrat.
- Alabama's 7th Congressional District appears consistently solid Democratic.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0% | 84.0% | State motions to vacate the injunction and significant risk to AL-02 may lead to zero Democratic wins. |
| Above 2 | 3.0% | 9.9% | The provided research does not describe a scenario where Democrats win above two House seats. |
| 1 | 0.0% | 3.0% | Successful state motions could revert the map to a 6R-1D configuration, leading to one Democratic seat. |
| 2 | 0.0% | 3.0% | The federal injunction maintains the 5R-2D map, locking two Democratic seats until post-2030. |
Current Context
Democrats are projected to win only one House seat in Alabama. Current district-level expectations for Alabama's 2026 House elections indicate that Democrats are likely to secure only one of the state's seven congressional seats. Districts AL-01, AL-03, AL-04, AL-05, and AL-06 are consistently rated as safely Republican [^][^][^]. The sole Democratic-held district anticipated to be retained is AL-02, currently represented by Rep. Terri Sewell [^][^][^]. This outlook implies a 1/7 Democratic outcome for Alabama's House delegation [^][^][^].
Key political analyses confirm Alabama's projected single Democratic House seat. According to 270toWin's analysis, which incorporates Cook Political Report ratings, the expectation of one Democratic seat in Alabama is further supported [^][^]. Specifically, AL-01, represented by Barry Moore (R), is listed as safe Republican [^][^]. AL-03, held by Mike Rogers (R), along with several other Alabama districts, are also categorized as safe Republican [^][^]. Meanwhile, AL-02, with Shomari Figures (D) noted as the Democratic candidate, is positively rated as a Democratic seat [^][^]. These ratings collectively underpin the assumption that Democrats will win one House seat from Alabama [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price action has been entirely static, showing no movement since trading began. The probability has remained fixed at 12.0%, establishing a completely flat, sideways trend. There have been no price spikes, drops, or any volatility whatsoever. Consequently, while 12.0% is the only price point on the chart, no meaningful support or resistance levels have been established due to the absence of trading activity that would test this price. The market has seen minimal engagement, with a total volume of only 50 contracts traded, suggesting very low participation and conviction from traders.
The stable price of 12.0% directly reflects the consensus outlined in the provided context. Political analysis projects that Democrats are likely to secure only one of Alabama's seven House seats. The market price suggests a low probability that Democrats will win an additional seat beyond the one they are expected to hold. The lack of any price movement indicates that no news or developments have occurred to alter this initial assessment. Market sentiment appears to be locked in agreement with the external projections, viewing the outcome as highly predictable and not warranting active trading.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Democrats win 2 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Alabama, otherwise it resolves to "No". A seat is considered "won" when a candidate of the specified party is declared elected by the relevant authority, and legal challenges are resolved or the member takes office; party affiliation is determined at the time of election.
The market opens on May 5, 2026, closes after the outcome occurs or by November 3, 2027, and may close early if the outcome is certain. If the election is postponed beyond one year or cancelled, the market resolves to the last fair market price.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | $0.12 | $0.89 | 12% |
| Above 2 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| 1 | $0.40 | $0.61 | 0% |
| 2 | $0.45 | $0.56 | 0% |
4. What do the latest Cook Political Report ratings and historical voting margins indicate for the Democratic Party's hold on Alabama's 2nd and 7th districts in 2026?
| AL-02 2026 Cook Political Report Rating | Solid D [^][^] |
|---|---|
| AL-02 Black Population | 52% [^][^][^] |
| AL-07 2026 Cook Political Report Rating | Solid Democratic [^] |
For the 2026 election cycle, Alabama's 2nd Congressional District is expected to remain solidly Democratic. The Cook Political Report rates this district "Solid D" [^][^]. This district was recently redrawn due to a Supreme Court decision, establishing a second district where Black voters have a strong opportunity to elect their preferred candidate [^][^][^][^][^]. The new district now encompasses a 52% Black population and has a Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of D+5, indicating it leans 5 percentage points more Democratic than the national average [^][^][^][^]. Shomari Figures, a Democrat elected in 2024, is currently running unopposed in the Democratic primary for 2026, which further reinforces the Democratic Party's expected hold on the seat [^][^][^][^][^].
Alabama's 7th District is a historically strong Democratic stronghold. This district is also firmly Democratic, rated "Solid Democratic" by the Cook Political Report and "Safe Democratic" by Sabato's Crystal Ball for the 2026 election [^]. It has consistently been a majority nonwhite, predominantly African-American district since redistricting in the 1990s [^][^][^]. With a D+13 Cook PVI, it stands as the most Democratic district in Alabama, performing 13 percentage points more Democratic than the national average [^][^]. Incumbent Terri Sewell, a Democrat, has represented the 7th District since 2010 and has consistently won re-election, including in 2024, effectively holding this Black-majority seat [^][^][^].
5. How might the national political environment, specifically the sitting President's approval rating in mid-2026, impact Democratic performance in Alabama's marginal districts?
| President Trump National Net Approval | -18.9 (May 8, 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Probability of National Democratic House Control | 85% [^][^] |
| Alabama Democratic House Seats Won (Kalshi Forecast) | 2 out of 7 [^] |
President Trump's low approval ratings project Democratic gains nationally. The national political environment in mid-2026 indicates a strong likelihood of Democratic gains in the U.S. House. As of May 8, 2026, President Trump's national approval rating stood at 37% approve and 59% disapprove, resulting in a net disapproval of -18.9 [^][^]. This widespread disapproval is associated with an 85% probability for national Democratic control of the House [^][^].
Alabama's AL-02 district represents the only competitive House race. Within Alabama, the AL-02 district stands out as the sole competitive contest, having been decided by a 9.2% margin in the 2024 election [^]. Forecasts from Kalshi assign a 55% probability for Democrats to retain AL-02, with other market analyses placing this likelihood at 58% [^][^][^]. All other congressional districts in Alabama are considered safe for their incumbent parties [^].
Democrats are likely to secure two House seats in Alabama. Considering these factors, Kalshi's state forecast predicts that Democrats will secure 2 out of the 7 House seats in Alabama [^].
6. How do the fundraising totals and cash-on-hand of the Democratic and Republican candidates in Alabama's 2nd Congressional District compare as of the latest FEC filing deadline?
| Shomari Figures Raised | $145,000 (as of May 7, 2026 FEC Pre-Primary reporting) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Shomari Figures Cash-on-Hand | $317,000 (as of May 7, 2026 FEC Pre-Primary reporting) [^][^][^] |
| Hampton Harris Total Receipts | $209,000 (as of May 7, 2026 FEC Pre-Primary reporting) [^][^][^] |
Democratic candidate Shomari Figures reported a significant cash-on-hand balance. As of the FEC Pre-Primary reporting deadline on May 7, 2026, Figures had raised approximately $145,000 and maintained $317,000 in cash-on-hand [^][^][^]. This financial data reflects activity from January through March 2026, leading up to the May 19, 2026, Alabama primary election [^][^][^].
Republican candidate Hampton Harris out-raised Figures but held less cash. During the identical reporting period covering January through March 2026, Harris recorded total receipts of about $209,000 [^][^][^]. However, he reported approximately $204,000 in cash-on-hand at the May 7, 2026, filing deadline [^][^][^].
7. What is the historical availability and accuracy of public polling for U.S. House races in Alabama during past midterm cycles?
| General Election Polls (2018, 2022) | None listed for Alabama House districts (Wikipedia) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| 2014 AL-06 GOP Primary Poll vs. Actual | Cygnal polls: Palmer 18%, DeMarco 20%. Actual: Palmer ~33% in first round [^] |
| 2022 National House Generic Ballot Inaccuracy | Polls overstated Democrats by ~5 points (actual Republicans led by 2.8 points) [^] |
Public polling for Alabama U.S. House general election races is notably limited. During recent midterm cycles, no public general election polls were recorded for Alabama House districts in either 2018 or 2022 [^][^]. While general election polls are scarce, some primary polls have been conducted, such as for the 2014 AL-06 GOP primary [^]. Despite the limited public general election data, several local pollsters, including The Alabama Poll, Cygnal, ALG Research, and JMC Analytics, are active in Alabama politics [^][^][^].
When polling has occurred, its accuracy has shown variability. For example, in the 2014 AL-06 GOP primary, Cygnal polls indicated candidate Palmer at 18% and DeMarco at 20%, yet Palmer ultimately secured approximately 33% of the vote in the first round and won the runoff [^]. However, a subsequent July runoff poll by Cygnal accurately predicted Palmer's victory [^]. On a national level, 2022 House generic ballot polls showed Democrats leading by 2.4 to 3.2 points, but Republicans actually led by 2.8 points, suggesting an approximate 5-point overstatement for Democrats [^]. The Alabama U.S. House delegation has consistently maintained a 6 Republican to 1 Democrat split in midterms from 2014-2022, with AL-07 being reliably Democratic and other districts safely Republican [^][^][^]. Current polls for the 2026 AL-01 race indicate a significant proportion of undecided voters, ranging from 44% to 64%, with one candidate, Carl, polling between 20% and 28% [^][^].
8. What potential legal challenges or legislative actions regarding Alabama's congressional map could be initiated before the 2026 filing deadline?
| Primary Filing Deadline | January 23, 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Current Map Status (locked) | 5R-2D (until post-2030) [^][^][^] |
| Special Session Date | May 4-8, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
Alabama seeks to overturn its federally mandated congressional map before the 2026 filing deadline. A federal injunction issued in 2025 currently mandates Alabama's congressional map, establishing a 5R-2D configuration, and is intended to remain in effect until after 2030 [^][^][^]. The primary filing deadline for the 2026 House elections in Alabama was January 23, 2026 [^][^][^]. In May 2026, the state initiated legal actions by filing motions to vacate this injunction [^][^]. This move followed the Supreme Court's Callais ruling in April 2026, which stipulated that Section 2 map challenges now necessitate proof of intentional discrimination rather than merely discriminatory effects [^][^]. Should the state's attempts to revert the map prove successful, the pre-Milligan map, which would likely be reinstated, is projected to result in a 6R-1D congressional outcome [^][^].
State lawmakers passed special primary legislation, prompting immediate plaintiff opposition. During a special session convened from May 4-8, 2026, a bill was enacted to provide for special primaries, which would become effective if courts permit the congressional map to revert prior to the general election [^][^][^][^]. In direct response to these developments, plaintiffs in the redistricting case filed an emergency motion for a status conference on special session compliance on May 5, 2026 [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Alabama Republicans are actively working to implement a new congressional map that could allow them to reclaim the 2nd district, potentially reducing Democratic representation [^] [^] [^] . This effort is largely in response to a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling that "narrowed the Voting Rights Act" [^][^]. Court decisions regarding Alabama's congressional maps are critical and could occur at any point leading up to the elections [^][^][^].
If courts permit Alabama Republicans to adopt a new map that diminishes the Black voting-age population in the 2nd district, it would be a significant setback for Democrats and could result in them losing that seat [^] [^] [^] . For example, on Kalshi, a prediction market, the Democratic candidate for Alabama's 2nd Congressional District in 2026 has a 58% win probability as of May 5, 2026, though this represents a notable drop in confidence, suggesting the seat is no longer considered a "safe hold" for Democrats [^].
The upcoming U.S. House elections will be held on November 3, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^]. Primary elections are scheduled for May 19, 2026, with potential runoffs on June 16, 2026 [^][^]. However, there is legislation under consideration that could alter these primary dates and require new primaries if a court allows a revised GOP-drawn district map [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Alabama Republicans are actively working to implement a new congressional map that could allow them to reclaim the 2nd district, potentially reducing Democratic representation [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This effort is largely in response to a recent U.S.
- Trigger: Supreme Court ruling that "narrowed the Voting Rights Act" [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Court decisions regarding Alabama's congressional maps are critical and could occur at any point leading up to the elections [^] [^] [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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