Who will run for public office in 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Dan Bilzerian to run for public office in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Graham Platner is the sole candidate who filed for the 2026 election.
- Virginia Governor Youngkin faces term limits, ruled out 2026 Senate run.
- Mark Cuban and Dan Patrick engaged political campaign staff or pollsters.
- No new Super PACs are heavily funding specific candidates currently.
- 2026 primary filing deadlines vary by state; some still months away.
- Market probability for a run dropped 89.5 points on April 28, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew McConaughey | 10.0% | 4.1% | The provided background research does not include any information regarding Matthew McConaughey's potential run for office in 2026, meaning there is no specific evidence to shift the 4.1% debiased probability, suggesting the current market price is based on historical speculation rather than new developments. |
| Casey DeSantis | 19.0% | 9.4% | There is no public evidence, official statements, filings, or credible rumors indicating Casey DeSantis plans to run for public office in 2026, making the existing market price speculative without current foundation. |
| Mark Cuban | 9.9% | 4.0% | The provided background research contains no specific evidence or citations regarding Mark Cuban's potential candidacy in 2026, while the market's current price (4.0%) likely incorporates general public awareness of his past public profile and political musings. |
| Paul Finebaum | 5.9% | 2.2% | The provided background research contains no information or indication regarding Paul Finebaum's intent to run for public office in 2026, supporting the neutral position that the debiased 2.2% probability is fair, while the market could be accounting for the general, albeit remote, possibility of any public figure declaring candidacy. |
| Glenn Youngkin | 5.5% | 1.5% | Glenn Youngkin is term-limited and cannot seek re-election as Governor in 2026, which removes a primary pathway for him to run for public office and supports the market's low probability, though the incomplete information about a U.S. Senate seat leaves other possibilities open. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has demonstrated no price movement since its inception. The perceived probability of a "YES" outcome has remained static at its starting point of 4.0%. The chart displays a completely flat, sideways trend, with no price fluctuations whatsoever. As there have been no price spikes, drops, or any other significant movements, the chart does not reflect any reaction to external news or events. The market's price history is entirely stable.
The most critical technical observation is the complete absence of trading activity, with a total volume of zero contracts traded. This indicates a highly illiquid and inactive market. The lack of volume suggests there is no market conviction behind the current price; the 4.0% level represents an initial price that has not been challenged or validated by any trading. Consequently, no support or resistance levels have been established. The chart does not reflect any active market sentiment, but rather a dormant market awaiting its first participants.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 April 28, 2026: 89.5pp drop
Price decreased from 95.0% to 5.5%
Outcome: Glenn Youngkin
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if Joe Kent publicly announces their candidacy for an elected public office in the 2026 election, including for a party's nomination, between the market's issuance and November 3, 2026. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." This announcement, reported by specified news sources, must come from Kent or their official campaign; filing paperwork or forming exploratory committees without a formal public declaration is insufficient. The market will close early if a qualifying announcement is made, or by November 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM EST.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Kent | $0.44 | $0.66 | 90% |
| Jake Paul | $0.29 | $0.74 | 24% |
| Casey DeSantis | $0.18 | $0.86 | 19% |
| Matt Gaetz | $0.13 | $0.90 | 13% |
| Matthew McConaughey | $0.07 | $0.98 | 10% |
| Mark Cuban | $0.16 | $0.91 | 10% |
| Nicki Minaj | $0.07 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Paul Finebaum | $0.06 | $0.97 | 6% |
| Glenn Youngkin | $0.06 | $0.99 | 6% |
| Danica Patrick | $0.11 | $0.96 | 4% |
Market Discussion
Traders show high confidence that Joe Kent will run for public office, with a 90.1% probability. For Jake Paul, opinions are mixed, with some expressing skepticism about him running while others note his interview with Trump as a potential signal, despite his current 24% probability. The discussion also reveals a broader interest in unconventional candidates, with users mentioning figures like Dan Bilzerian, Nikki Minaj, and Trisha Paytas for other potential markets.
5. Which Candidates Filed for 2026 Election Since January 2024?
| Graham Platner Candidacy Filing Date | February 12, 2024 [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Graham Platner Committee Filing Date | February 12, 2024 [^], [^] |
| Joshua Joseph Weil Candidacy Filing Date | November 8, 2023 [^] |
Graham Platner is the only candidate meeting the specified filing criteria. Platner filed a Statement of Candidacy (FEC Form 2) with the Federal Election Commission on February 12, 2024, for the 2026 election cycle [^], [^]. On the same date, February 12, 2024, a Statement of Organization (FEC Form 1) was also submitted for the committee "GRAHAM FOR MAINE," identified by FEC ID C00916437 [^], [^]. These filings make Platner the sole individual among those researched to have initiated campaign paperwork since January 1, 2024.
Joshua Joseph Weil's filing predates the specified timeframe. Weil filed a Statement of Candidacy (FEC Form 2) for the 2026 election cycle on November 8, 2023 [^]. Since this filing date occurred before January 1, 2024, it does not satisfy the requirement for campaign paperwork submitted within the specified post-January 1, 2024, period.
6. What Political Futures Do Youngkin and Gaetz Face in 2026?
| Glenn Youngkin Term Limit | Cannot seek re-election as Governor in 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Youngkin 2026 Senate Bid | Ruled out U.S. Senate bid, open to presidential campaign [^] |
| Matt Gaetz Potential Office | Potential candidate for 2026 Florida Attorney General election [^] |
Glenn Youngkin faces term limits and has ruled out a 2026 Senate run. Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin is term-limited and ineligible for re-election in 2026, as state law restricts governors to a single consecutive term [^]. While a U.S. Senate seat will be available in Virginia in 2026, Youngkin has publicly stated he has "ruled out" a Senate bid [^]. He has, however, left open the possibility of a future presidential campaign [^].
Florida features open gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races in 2026. Florida is also scheduled to hold both gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections in 2026 [^]. U.S. Representative Matt Gaetz is identified as a potential candidate for the 2026 Florida Attorney General election, aligning with a specific statewide office [^]. The research does not specify any known office for Florida's First Lady, Casey DeSantis, though both Governor and U.S. Senator are available federal and statewide offices in the state.
7. Which Celebrities Have Hired Political Campaign Staff or Pollsters?
| Mark Cuban Political Polling | Hired national political polling firm for potential presidential run [^] |
|---|---|
| Dan Patrick Staff Experience | Operates with staff experienced in statewide and presidential campaign management [^] |
| Other Celebrities (McConaughey, Minaj, Paul) | No verifiable information on hiring political staff or polling firms for their own political aspirations [^]. |
Mark Cuban and Dan Patrick show verifiable political staffing or polling firm engagement. Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks, verifiably hired a national political polling firm to investigate a potential presidential run in 2020. This was done to assess his performance against Donald Trump and Joe Biden [^]. Similarly, Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, who served as President Trump's Texas State Chairman in 2016, operates with staff experienced in statewide and presidential campaign management. He has also announced his re-election campaign for 2026 [^].
No verifiable information exists for McConaughey, Minaj, or Paul's political hires. The provided research does not contain verifiable evidence indicating that Matthew McConaughey, Nicki Minaj, or Jake Paul have hired staff with prior presidential or statewide campaign management experience. Furthermore, there is no information showing they have retained national political polling firms for their own potential political aspirations. While Nicki Minaj did serve as a surrogate for the Trump administration, the sources do not indicate she hired staff or a polling firm for any political runs of her own [^].
8. Are Newly Registered Super PACs Funding Specific Candidates with Large Seed Money?
| Mark Cuban-related political entities | None identified as Super PACs or 527s with specific fundraising language or seed funding exceeding $250,000 [^] |
|---|---|
| Casey-related political entities | BOB CASEY FOR SENATE INC [^], VICTORY NOW FOR CASEY [^], and Committed to MN-04 [^] are mentioned, but not confirmed as newly registered Super PACs or 527s with initial seed funding over $250,000 from major donors. |
| Newly registered Super PACs/527s with specified funding criteria | No explicit evidence found matching all criteria from the provided web research [^]. |
No new Super PACs or 527s met all specified criteria. Web research did not identify any newly registered Super PACs or 527 organizations with fundraising language explicitly or implicitly naming individuals such as 'Draft Mark Cuban' or 'Ready for Casey.' Furthermore, no specific initial seed funding exceeding $250,000 from known major political donors was found for such entities. While Mark Cuban was mentioned in the context of a sports fund with $450 million in commitments, this is not a political action committee or 527 organization [^]. No listed political action committees explicitly or implicitly named Mark Cuban or included 'Draft Mark Cuban' in their fundraising language.
Organizations linked to 'Casey' did not meet all research parameters. Several organizations related to 'Casey' were identified, including BOB CASEY FOR SENATE INC [^], VICTORY NOW FOR CASEY (FEC Committee ID C00867135) [^], and the 'Committed to MN-04' website [^]. BOB CASEY FOR SENATE INC appears to be a principal campaign committee and was not confirmed as a newly registered Super PAC or 527 [^]. For VICTORY NOW FOR CASEY, details on its registration date, classification as a Super PAC or 527, or any initial seed funding exceeding $250,000 from known major political donors were not available [^]. The 'Committed to MN-04' website is a campaign site and was not identified as a Super PAC or 527; no funding information was provided [^].
9. What Are the Key 2026 Primary Filing Deadlines and Campaign Launches?
| Florida 2026 Primary Filing | April 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Texas 2026 Primary Filing Deadline | December 2025 [^], [^] |
| Virginia 2026 Filing Details | Not explicitly detailed [^], [^] |
Candidate filing deadlines for the 2026 primaries vary by state. In Florida, the qualifying period for non-judicial federal, state, and multi-county offices is generally expected to occur during April 2026 [^]. Texas primary elections typically take place in March, with the filing period for Republican or Democratic candidates usually opening in November or December of 2025 and often closing in December 2025 [^], [^]. However, specific filing deadlines for federal and statewide offices in Virginia for the 2026 primaries were not explicitly detailed in the available research [^], [^].
Specific speaking engagements for potential contenders remain undetermined through Q2 2025. The available sources do not provide information on scheduled speaking engagements that could serve as unofficial campaign launches during this period. While several individuals have been identified as potential contenders for 2026 races, including Alexander Gaaserud (West Virginia, US Senate) [^], Merle Travis Rutledge (West Virginia, US Senate) [^], Amanda Chase (Virginia, former State Senator) [^], and Gulrez Khan (Texas, US Senate) [^], their speaking engagements at major national political gatherings or state party conventions were not listed. Although the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) is noted as a significant event with speakers listed for its DC 2025 gathering [^], specific appearances by these potential contenders at CPAC 2025 or other relevant events through Q2 2025 were not detailed in the provided information.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2026
- Closes: November 03, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXRUNBYMIDTERM-26NOV03-DBIL: YES (Apr 11, 2026)
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