UT-01 Democratic nominee?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Liban Mohamed secured the UT-01 Democratic nomination outright.
- Mohamed won 70.4% of delegate votes at the 2026 party convention.
- This outright win bypassed a primary election for the nomination.
- Other listed candidates cannot be the Democratic nominee.
- Ben McAdams showed strong early fundraising, but this was superseded.
- Nate Blouin received progressive endorsements, but also superseded.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben McAdams | 76.0% | 85.8% | Model higher by 9.8pp |
| Nate Blouin | 24.0% | 8.3% | Market higher by 15.7pp |
| Kathleen Riebe | 1.0% | 0.0% | Market higher by 1.0pp |
| Brian King | 1.0% | 0.0% | Market higher by 1.0pp |
| Jenny Wilson | 1.0% | 0.0% | Market higher by 1.0pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Ben McAdams wins the Democratic Party's nomination for the 2026 UT-01 House seat, and to NO if he does not. The market opened on November 14, 2025, and closes either upon McAdams securing the nomination or by November 3, 2026, 10:00am EST, whichever comes first. The outcome will be verified using official information from the Democratic and Republican Parties, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben McAdams | $0.73 | $0.31 | 76% |
| Nate Blouin | $0.27 | $0.75 | 24% |
| Luz Escamilla | $0.01 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Brian King | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Caroline Gleich | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Erin Mendenhall | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Jenny Wilson | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Kael Weston | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Kathleen Riebe | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Who Leads Democratic Fundraising in Utah's 1st District, Q1 2026?
| Q1 2026 Fundraising Lead (Democrats) | Ben McAdams significantly leads other Democratic candidates in Utah's 1st Congressional District [^] |
|---|---|
| Overall Fundraising Lead (All Candidates) | Ben McAdams led all candidates as of February 2, 2026 [^] |
| Lead Over Nate Blouin | Ben McAdams led Nate Blouin as of April 21, 2026 [^] |
5. What are Ben McAdams's Early Campaign Activities for UT-01?
| Campaign Launch | January 29, 2024 [^] |
|---|---|
| FEC Committee Status | Active, "FRIENDS OF BEN MCADAMS," ID C00658633 [^] |
| Total Raised (as of Dec 31, 2023) | $523,989.02 [^] |
6. Which UT-01 candidate has most public events and local official endorsements?
| Candidate with Most Documented Events/Endorsements (besides McAdams) | Nate Blouin (Web research by end of 2025) [^] |
|---|---|
| Nate Blouin's Public Campaign Events in Weber County | At least three [^] |
| Nate Blouin's Local Official Endorsements in Weber County | At least three [^] |
7. Which National Progressive Organizations Support UT-01 Candidates?
| Blouin Endorsement | Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC [^] |
|---|---|
| Key Blouin Supporter | Senator Bernie Sanders [^] |
| Fundraising Leader | Ben McAdams leads Nate Blouin [^] |
8. How did Liban Mohamed win the 1st Congressional District nomination?
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.