NY-13 Democratic nominee?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Adriano Espaillat to be the NY-13 Democratic nominee, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Incumbent Espaillat holds a commanding $1.6M cash-on-hand advantage.
- Espaillat secured key endorsements from major Democratic Party organizations.
- Challenger Avila Chevalier faces a significant financial disadvantage.
- Avila Chevalier's ballot qualification remains unconfirmed due to legal objections.
- No other candidate shows significant financial resources or major endorsements.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darializa Avila Chevalier | 47.0% | 21.2% | Market higher by 25.8pp |
| Adriano Espaillat | 56.0% | 55.1% | Incumbent Adriano Espaillat has a strong fundraising advantage and crucial endorsements from labor and party committees. |
| Theo Chino-Tavarez | 5.0% | 4.8% | Market higher by 0.2pp |
| Matt Miller | 4.0% | 3.8% | Market higher by 0.2pp |
| Jaliel Amador | 4.0% | 3.8% | Market higher by 0.2pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the provided chart data, the prediction market for the NY-13 Democratic nominee in 2026 opened with a high probability of 66.0%. However, it experienced a significant and rapid downward trend shortly after opening, falling to a low of 50.0%. Since hitting this bottom, the price has seen a partial recovery and has been consolidating, currently trading at 57.0%. The overall trajectory remains downward from its starting point, indicating a decrease in market confidence over the observed period. Key price levels have been established at the 66.0% high, which acts as a resistance level, and the 50.0% low, which has served as a clear support level from which the price has since rebounded.
The price movements cannot be attributed to specific external events, as no news or context was provided. The volume patterns, however, offer some insight into trader conviction. The initial sharp drop in price appears to have occurred on very low or zero volume, suggesting it may have been an initial market correction or repricing rather than a reaction to heavy trading. In contrast, the subsequent price recovery from the lows to the current 57.0% level was accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume, with 766 contracts traded around that period. This suggests that the rebound was backed by stronger market participation and conviction compared to the initial price drop.
Overall, the market sentiment has shifted considerably since the market opened. The initial strong confidence in the outcome has eroded, reflected by the price falling from 66.0% to a 50/50 probability. While sentiment has improved from the lows, the current price of 57.0% indicates that traders now see the outcome as only moderately likely, a significant downgrade from the opening assessment. The market appears to have found a temporary equilibrium between the established support and resistance levels, but the overall downward trend suggests a persistent level of uncertainty among participants.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 21, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 36.0% to 44.0%
Outcome: Darializa Avila Chevalier
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Adriano Espaillat wins the Democratic Party's nomination for the 2026 NY-13 House seat, verified by democrats.org; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market opened on December 22, 2025, at 10:00 AM EST, and closes either after the outcome occurs or by June 23, 2027, at 10:00 AM EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Trading is prohibited for individuals such as those with material, non-public information, holders of federal and statewide public office, campaign staffers, and employees of specific political or media organizations.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adriano Espaillat | $0.57 | $0.44 | 56% |
| Darializa Avila Chevalier | $0.45 | $0.56 | 47% |
| Theo Chino-Tavarez | $0.05 | $0.99 | 5% |
| Jaliel Amador | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
| James Felton Keith | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Matt Miller | $0.01 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Megan Rodriguez | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Oscar Romero | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
Market Discussion
Traders are discussing the Democratic nomination for NY-13, with incumbent Adriano Espaillat currently leading in market odds despite concerns about his age (71). While Espaillat's age is cited as a reason against him, his main challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier is described negatively as a "lunatic." The limited discussion highlights specific criticisms directed at both leading candidates.
5. What are Adriano Espaillat's latest campaign finances and endorsements?
| Espaillat Cash on Hand | $1,617,678.07 (as of Dec 31, 2025) [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Avila Chevalier Cash on Hand | $10,480.25 (as of Dec 31, 2025) [^] |
| Key Endorsements | New York County Democratic Committee, 1199SEIU, United Federation of Teachers (UFT) [^] |
Incumbent Adriano Espaillat holds a significant fundraising advantage over his closest challenger. As of the Q4 2025 FEC filing deadline on December 31, 2025, Representative Espaillat reported $1,617,678.07 in cash on hand for his campaign [^], [^]. In comparison, his closest identified challenger with available financial data, Darializa Avila Chevalier, reported $10,480.25 in cash on hand as of the same date [^]. This financial disparity establishes Espaillat's substantial fundraising lead of $1,607,197.82 [^], [^], [^].
Espaillat has secured key endorsements from influential political and labor groups. Representative Espaillat has received support from the New York County Democratic Committee [^]. Furthermore, he has garnered endorsements from major labor unions, specifically 1199SEIU and the United Federation of Teachers (UFT) [^].
6. When Will New York's 13th District Primary Ballot Be Confirmed?
| Ballot Confirmation Status | Not yet confirmed as of April 26, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Primary Election Date | June 23, 2026 [^] |
| Signatures Required | 1,250 valid signatures [^] |
Legal objections currently impede ballot access for New York's 13th District challengers. As of April 26, 2026, multiple campaigns in the race for New York's 13th Congressional District have filed legal objections regarding petition signatures [^]. To qualify for the primary ballot, candidates are required to gather 1,250 valid signatures [^]. These challenges are currently being processed, with potential hearings by the Board of Elections or through court proceedings [^].
Ballot confirmation for the 2026 primary election remains pending. The NYC Board of Elections has not yet confirmed which challengers will successfully defend their petitions and appear on the official ballot for the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary [^]. The Board of Elections is anticipated to confirm the final ballot in the weeks following April 26, 2026 [^]. Therefore, whether more than one challenger will ultimately qualify and potentially split the anti-incumbent vote remains to be seen until the Board's official confirmation [^].
7. What Was Representative Espaillat's Stance on Inwood Rezoning?
| Inwood Rezoning Opposition | Faced significant local opposition due to gentrification concerns [^] |
|---|---|
| Espaillat's Stance on Library Plan | Opposed Inwood Library plan, calling it a 'Trojan Horse for Uptown' [^] |
| DSA Opposition to Espaillat | Targeting Espaillat in NY-13 race, endorsed challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier [^] |
The Inwood Rezoning plan faced significant community and board opposition. This issue was a high-profile local matter that generated considerable opposition from residents. In 2015, community members urged Community Board 12 to reject the Mayor's affordable housing rezoning proposals, citing risks of gentrification [^]. Despite these concerns, an updated Inwood Rezoning Plan was unveiled in 2016 and subsequently approved by the City Council [^].
Representative Espaillat publicly opposed a specific rezoning component. Representative Adriano Espaillat publicly opposed a key element of the rezoning, specifically the Inwood Library plan, which he controversially described as a 'Trojan Horse for Uptown' [^]. Espaillat's position on this matter aligned with the community's expressed concerns regarding the potential negative impacts of the rezoning. Available research does not indicate that Community Board 12 or local activist groups publicly opposed Espaillat's stance on the Inwood Library plan or the broader rezoning efforts.
No specific local issue opposition exists from activist groups. While the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) is a notable activist coalition actively targeting Representative Espaillat in the NY-13 Democratic nominee race, having endorsed his challenger, Darializa Avila Chevalier, the provided sources do not specify a particular high-profile local issue, such as a major rezoning proposal or a tenant rights battle, where the DSA or another major activist coalition publicly opposes Espaillat's specific stance [^]. Their opposition appears to be more broadly political in nature.
8. Is Representative Adriano Espaillat Seeking Re-Election for NY-13?
| Re-election Status | Incumbent running for re-election in Democratic primary on June 23, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Campaign Activity | Actively engaging with legal challenges related to congressional seat [^] |
| NYC Mayoral Run | Not listed among candidates for NYC Mayor in 2025 [^] |
Espaillat actively pursues re-election for his current congressional seat. Representative Adriano Espaillat is listed as the incumbent for New York's 13th Congressional District, with the Democratic primary scheduled for June 23, 2026 [^]. His campaign demonstrates ongoing engagement in the electoral process, evidenced by its response to legal objections faced by various campaigns vying for his congressional seat [^]. Furthermore, his official campaign website, "Adriano Espaillat for Congress," remains active, consistent with a candidate seeking another term [^].
No verifiable signals suggest Espaillat will not seek re-election. The research does not indicate any key campaign staff departures, which would typically be a sign of a candidate stepping aside [^]. Additionally, Adriano Espaillat is not mentioned in an October 2025 list of individuals running for or exploring a run for New York City Mayor in 2025, indicating he is not publicly considering a mayoral bid [^].
9. Has Working Families Party Endorsed NY-13 Candidate for 2026?
| WFP Endorsement Status NY-13 (2026) | No candidate secured endorsement [^] |
|---|---|
| WFP Endorsement Application Deadline | February 1, 2026 [^] |
| Relevant Primary Election Date | June 23, 2026 (Democratic Primary) [^] |
No candidate has secured WFP endorsement for NY-13 in 2026. As of the currently available information, no candidate has secured the Working Families Party (WFP) endorsement for New York's 13th Congressional District in the 2026 election cycle [^]. The WFP's application deadline for federal, state, and local offices participating in the June 23, 2026 Democratic Primary was February 1, 2026 [^].
WFP has endorsed in other races, but not specifically NY-13. The Working Families Party has issued endorsements for various other races, including Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso in the NY-7 Congressional race, LeGrand for a Southeast Queens Assembly seat, and candidates for open NYC Council seats [^]. However, no such announcement specifically for NY-13 is present in the provided sources, nor do the WFP's official endorsement pages for New York list an endorsement for NY-13 [^].
Despite the deadline, no NY-13 WFP endorsement is public. Therefore, despite the passage of the application deadline for the relevant primary, no WFP endorsement for the NY-13 Democratic primary has been publicly announced or identified in the research provided.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 23, 2027
- Closes: June 23, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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