Democratic Sweep
Market Model 41.0% 34.2%
Republican Sweep
Market Model 28.0% 20.6%
2028 Markets
Active Markets (8)
Yes
Market Model 92.5% 96.6%
Before Jul 1, 2027
Market Model 42.0% 34.8%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 9.0% 7.6%
Yes
Market Model 53.0% 58.9%
Before Election Day
Market Model 25.0% 16.9%
Before 2028
Market Model 14.0% 9.4%
Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance
Market Model 12.0% 10.1%
JD Vance defeats Gavin Newsom
Market Model 12.0% 17.2%
Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Market Model 5.0% 8.1%
Jon Ossoff and Andy Beshear
Market Model 4.0% 6.5%
Republican party
Market Model 37.0% 36.2%
Democratic party
Market Model 62.0% 63.8%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2028: Who will win the Presidency, House, and Senate? Top outcome: Democratic Sweep | 41.0% | 34.2% | High | $221,678.3 | Refresh |
| Will the 2028 presidential election occur? Yes refers to: In 2028 | 92.5% | 96.6% | Med | $58,353.85 | Refresh |
| When will Marco Rubio announce his presidential candidacy? Top outcome: Before Jul 1, 2027 | 42.0% | 34.8% | Med | $608 | Refresh |
| Will Rubio and Vance run for President? Yes refers to: JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican | 53.0% | 58.9% | Med | $4,431.31 | Refresh |
| Will Trump run for a third term? Top outcome: Before Election Day | 25.0% | 16.9% | High | $87,086.32 | Refresh |
| 2028 Presidential race: exact outcome Top outcome: Gavin Newsom defeats JD Vance | 12.0% | 10.1% | High | $11,744.01 | Refresh |
| 2028 Democratic Presidential ticket Top outcome: Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 5.0% | 8.1% | High | $1,856.41 | Refresh |
| 2028 Presidential Election winner? (Party) Top outcome: Republican party | 37.0% | 36.2% | High | $398,853.22 | Refresh |
