Pennsylvania's 10th District margin of victory
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for Republicans winning Pennsylvania's 10th District by 2+ points (14.0% model vs 27.0% market), driven by evidence of a reduced likelihood of a Republican victory due to fundraising leads and significant Democratic Party targeting.
1. Executive Verdict
- Janelle Stelson significantly outraised Scott Perry in the 2026 election cycle's first quarter.
- The Democratic Party appears to be heavily targeting PA-10 for a flip.
- PA-10 is a highly competitive and nationally targeted Democratic flip opportunity.
- External predictions and models suggest a Democratic victory is now more likely.
- Scott Perry's 2024 victory margin significantly narrowed compared to 2022.
- The Democratic primary on May 19, 2026 is crucial for the general election.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans, 5+ pts | 16.0% | 8.0% | Janelle Stelson's fundraising lead and Democratic targeting suggest a wide Republican victory is less likely. |
| Republicans, 8+ pts | 9.8% | 4.9% | External predictions and Democratic targeting indicate a large Republican victory is less probable. |
| Republicans, 2+ pts | 27.0% | 14.0% | Cumulative evidence from fundraising and party targeting suggests a Republican victory is less likely. |
Current Context
Scott Perry achieved narrow victories in recent Pennsylvania's 10th District elections. In the 2024 election, Perry secured 50.6% of the vote (205,567 votes) compared to Janelle Stelson's 49.4% (200,434 votes), representing a slim margin of 5,133 votes [^][^][^]. This followed a wider win in 2022, where Perry defeated Shamaine Daniels with 53.8% to 46.2% [^][^]. The district is rated "tilt Republican" by Gonzales and holds a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+3, indicating it leans Republican by 3 percentage points nationally [^][^]. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has identified this district as a competitive seat they aim to flip [^][^].
The 2026 election features key dates and competitive primary races. The general election for Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District will take place on November 3, 2026, preceded by the primary election on May 19, 2026 [^][^]. Important voter deadlines include May 4, 2026, for primary voter registration, and May 12, 2026, for requesting a primary mail-in or absentee ballot [^][^]. For the general election, the voter registration deadline is October 19, 2026, with mail-in or absentee ballot requests due by October 27, 2026 [^]. Incumbent Republican Scott Perry is seeking re-election and will run in the Republican primary [^][^]. On the Democratic side, Janelle Stelson, Perry's 2024 challenger, is running again as a front-runner, backed by endorsements from Governor Josh Shapiro and several labor unions [^][^][^][^]. Justin Douglas is also contending in the Democratic primary, positioning himself as a grassroots alternative, notably having led the Dauphin County Board of Commissioners to Democratic control in 2023 [^][^][^][^].
Prediction markets show varying probabilities for party victory margins. As of May 5, 2026, one market indicates a 57% chance of Democrats winning by 4 percentage points or more, and a 44% chance of them winning by 7 percentage points or more in the 2026 election [^]. Conversely, the same market assigns a 27% chance of Republicans winning by 2 percentage points or more, and a 17% chance of them winning by 5 percentage points or more [^]. These market predictions are resolved based on the certified margin of victory [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market, which speculates on a Republican margin of victory of two or more points in Pennsylvania's 10th District, has experienced a dramatic upward trend. The price began at a low of 1.0%, indicating minimal confidence in this outcome. However, on May 05, 2026, the market saw a significant spike of 23 percentage points, jumping from 1.0% to 24.0%. Since this event, the price has continued to consolidate and has recently settled at 27.0%. The initial price of 1.0% served as a support level before the breakout, and the price has since held above the 24.0% mark, which may now act as a new floor.
The direct cause for the 23-point price spike on May 05, 2026 is not identified in the provided context, which notes a lack of correlating news or other market factors. This suggests the sharp repricing may not be tied to a specific public event. The total trading volume for the market is relatively low at 242 contracts. The sample data shows zero volume on the day of the spike and the days immediately following, which indicates the price change may have occurred on very light trading activity. Low volume can sometimes suggest that price movements reflect the actions of a small number of participants rather than a broad shift in market conviction.
Despite the low volume, the chart indicates a significant shift in market sentiment. Initially, traders assigned a very low probability to a Republican victory of this magnitude. The current price of 27.0% reflects a substantial increase in the perceived likelihood of this outcome. The market is now pricing in roughly a 1-in-4 chance of the event occurring, a stark contrast to its starting point. This suggests that participants who are active in the market have reassessed the race as being potentially more favorable to the Republican candidate than previously thought, though the lack of heavy trading volume implies this sentiment has not yet been rigorously tested.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 May 05, 2026: 23.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 24.0%
Outcome: Republicans, 2+ pts
What happened: Web research does not identify any social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors correlating with a 23.0 percentage point spike in the "Pennsylvania's 10th District margin of victory" market for "Republicans, 2+ pts" on May 05, 2026. Ballotpedia outlines the 2026 election schedule for Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District but does not report any such margin movement or catalyst on the specified date [^][^]. Additionally, a national poll reported on May 6, 2026, discusses broader political trends but explicitly states it does not provide district-specific data for PA-10 or a relevant 23.0pp event [^]. Based on the available sources, social media activity was not a primary driver, a contributing accelerant, or relevant to this reported price movement.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Pennsylvania's 10th District by 2 percentage points or more; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market opened on May 5, 2026, and will close after certified election results are published, or by November 3, 2027, with payouts expected 30 minutes after closing. The margin of victory is calculated without rounding, based on the difference in vote percentages, and verified by the official election authority.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans, 2+ pts | $0.28 | $0.73 | 27% |
| Republicans, 5+ pts | $0.17 | $0.84 | 16% |
| Republicans, 8+ pts | $0.10 | $0.90 | 10% |
Market Discussion
Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District "tilts Republican" [^], with Republican incumbent Scott Perry defeating Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson by a slim 50.6% to 49.4% margin in 2024 [^], after a 53.8% victory in 2022 [^]. For the 2026 Democratic primary, Stelson, who has a significant fundraising advantage, is contesting against Justin Douglas [^]. Prediction markets suggest a 57% chance for Democrats to win by 4 percentage points or more, while Republicans have a 27% chance to win by 2 percentage points or more [^].
5. How do Scott Perry's and Janelle Stelson's fundraising reports compare for the 2026 election cycle?
| Stelson's Q1 Fundraising Advantage | Approximately $661,886 [^] |
|---|---|
| Stelson's Q1 Cash on Hand Advantage | Roughly $878,608 [^] |
| Janelle Stelson Q1 Funds Raised | $1,467,227 [^] |
Janelle Stelson significantly outraised Scott Perry in the first quarter. For the 2026 election cycle's first-quarter reporting period, Janelle Stelson reported raising $1,467,227 and concluded with $3,174,188 cash on hand [^]. In contrast, Scott Perry's fundraising for the same period totaled $805,341, leaving him with $2,295,580 cash on hand [^]. This demonstrates Stelson outraised Perry by approximately $661,886 and held about $878,608 more cash on hand at the end of the quarter [^].
Additional reports contextualize overall fundraising efforts for both candidates. A news roundup indicated Janelle Stelson had accumulated $4.37 million in total raised and possessed $3.17 million on hand leading up to the May 19 primary rematch against Perry [^]. For Scott Perry, the FEC's candidate overview shows total receipts of $4,016,106.33 and an ending cash on hand of $2,295,580.18 for the coverage period from January 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026 [^].
6. Which outside groups, like the DCCC, are targeting the PA-10 race, and what does their spending level signal about the district's competitiveness?
| DCCC Target | PA-10 identified as a flip target for Democrats in 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| House Majority PAC Investment | Approximately $3.5 million planned against U.S. Rep. Scott Perry in PA-10 [^] |
| Race Rating | Toss Up (Quiver Quantitative fundraising tracker) [^] |
The PA-10 congressional race is a highly competitive, nationally targeted Democratic flip opportunity. The district is drawing significant national Democratic attention aimed at flipping the seat. This assessment is supported by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's (DCCC) inclusion of PA-10 on its 2026 "Districts in Play" list as a designated flip target [^].
Outside Democratic groups are making significant financial commitments in PA-10. House Majority PAC has made substantial financial commitments to the district, publicly allocating approximately $3.5 million for advertisements specifically targeting U.S. Rep. Scott Perry in PA-10 [^]. This targeted spending is part of a broader $20 million investment by the PAC across four competitive Pennsylvania House districts [^]. Further indicating its competitive nature, a Quiver Quantitative fundraising tracker independently rates the PA-10 race as a "Toss Up" [^].
7. How might the outcome of the May 19, 2026 Democratic primary affect Scott Perry's general election prospects?
| Stelson's 2024 Loss Margin | approximately 1 percentage point [^] |
|---|---|
| Stelson vs. Perry General Election Projection | 67% chance of winning (The Hill and DDHQ model) [^] |
| District Partisan Voter Index | R+3 [^] |
The May 19, 2026 Democratic primary is crucial for Scott Perry's general election. Should Janelle Stelson, considered the frontrunner, win the primary, Scott Perry's general election outlook could be significantly affected [^]. Stelson, who narrowly lost to Perry by approximately one percentage point in 2024 [^], is favored by Democrats due to Perry's "hard-right" voting record, the district's redrawing to be more competitive, and the expected boost from Governor Shapiro on the 2026 ballot without a presidential race [^]. She also benefits from endorsements by Governor Josh Shapiro and nearly 20 unions [^]. A current model by The Hill and DDHQ projects Stelson with a 67% chance of winning the general election against Perry [^].
Perry faces vulnerability regardless of the Democratic nominee. If Justin Douglas, campaigning as a grassroots alternative and less nationally recognized, secures the primary victory [^], the available research does not provide specific information on how this would directly impact Scott Perry's general election prospects or Douglas's projected chances. Regardless, Scott Perry is widely identified as one of the most vulnerable House Republicans nationwide for the 2026 midterm election [^][^]. The district is rated "tilt Republican" by Gonzales [^] and has a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+3, indicating a slight Republican lean based on past presidential elections [^]. General election market data as of May 5, 2026, shows Democrats with a 57% chance of winning by 4+ percentage points and a 44% chance of winning by 7+ percentage points [^]. Republicans have a 27% chance of winning by 2+ percentage points and a 17% chance of winning by 5+ percentage points [^].
8. What do historical voting patterns since the 2022 redistricting indicate about the baseline Republican margin in PA-10?
| 2022 Republican Victory Margin | 7.6 percentage points [^] |
|---|---|
| 2024 Republican Victory Margin | Just over a point (5,133 votes) [^] |
| PA-10 Partisan Voter Index (PVI) | R+3 [^] |
Since the 2022 redistricting, actual election outcomes in PA-10 have shown significant variability. In the 2022 election, the Republican candidate secured a victory with a margin of 7.6 percentage points [^]. However, the 2024 election proved to be a much tighter contest, with the Republican candidate winning by "just over a point," which amounted to a margin of 5,133 votes [^].
This variability in election results contrasts with the district's underlying partisan lean, which suggests a more consistent Republican advantage. The Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index (PVI) rates PA-10 as R+3, indicating that the district typically performs three percentage points more Republican than the national average [^]. Based on current boundaries, this also suggests a hypothetical Republican advantage of 4.1 percentage points [^].
9. How did Scott Perry's 2024 performance compare to his 2022 victory, and what demographic shifts explain the narrowed margin?
| 2024 Victory Margin | Approximately 2 percentage points [^][^] |
|---|---|
| 2022 Victory Margin | 7.6 percentage points [^] |
| 2024 Vote Difference | Around 6,000 votes [^][^][^] |
Scott Perry's 2024 victory margin significantly narrowed compared to 2022. His win in Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District marked his closest contest since first being elected in 2013 [^][^]. He defeated Democrat Janelle Stelson by approximately two percentage points in 2024 [^][^]. This represents a substantial decrease from his 7.6 percentage point lead over Democrat Shamaine Daniels in 2022, when he secured 53.8% of the vote to Daniels' 46.2% [^][^][^][^]. The district, encompassing areas around Harrisburg and York, is considered Republican-leaning but became more competitive following redistricting in 2018 [^][^].
Janelle Stelson proved a formidable challenger in the 2024 election. A first-time candidate and former local TV news anchor who had previously been a Republican before identifying as a Democrat, Stelson came closer than any of Perry's previous opponents [^][^]. The 2024 general election saw Perry defeat Stelson on November 5, 2024, by approximately two percentage points, or around 6,000 votes, indicating a substantially tighter race [^][^][^].
Demographic shifts do not directly explain Perry's narrowed 2024 margin. While broader trends in Pennsylvania's 2024 elections showed Democrats losing ground among various demographic groups compared to 2020, following a "blue wave" across the state in the 2023 off-year elections, the provided research does not specifically detail how these shifts directly account for the narrowed margin within Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District [^][^][^]. A June 2024 poll in PA-10 revealed that voters in the district were more critical of President Biden than the state's average and held generally unfavorable views of both presidential candidates [^]. Although the district has an increasing foreign-born population, significant Black or African American and Asian communities, alongside a higher homeownership rate and average commute time compared to the national average, the direct causal link of these specific demographic factors to the 2024 outcome remains unquantified by the available facts [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The 2026 primary election for Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District is scheduled for May 19, 2026, with the general election following on November 3, 2026 [^] . There is no PA-10 general election on 2027-11-03 in the sources retrieved [^]. The Polymarket "PA-10 House Election Winner" market is scheduled to resolve on or around November 4, 2026 [^].
In the 2024 PA-10 general election, Scott Perry received 205,567 votes compared to Janelle Stelson's 200,434 votes, indicating a relatively narrow margin of 5,133 votes [^] . Currently, the Polymarket "PA-10 House Election Winner" market (party-of-winner) shows a crowd-implied probability of 74% for the Democratic Party and 25% for the Republican Party [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The 2026 primary election for Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District is scheduled for May 19, 2026, with the general election following on November 3, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: There is no PA-10 general election on 2027-11-03 in the sources retrieved [^] .
- Trigger: The Polymarket "PA-10 House Election Winner" market is scheduled to resolve on or around November 4, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: In the 2024 PA-10 general election, Scott Perry received 205,567 votes compared to Janelle Stelson's 200,434 votes, indicating a relatively narrow margin of 5,133 votes [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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