LA-02 Democratic nominee?
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Troy Carter holds over $1.6M cash-on-hand, indicating strong funding.
- Incumbent Troy Carter secured robust institutional and national party endorsements.
- Renada Collins lacks FEC filings, finances, and organizational campaign structure.
- John Day shows minimal campaign presence, lacking finances and endorsements.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renada Collins | 4.0% | 2.3% | Renada Collins lacks campaign finance data or institutional endorsements, indicating severe viability issues. |
| Troy Carter | 95.2% | 97.7% | Incumbent Troy Carter has a significant financial advantage and strong institutional endorsements. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Troy Carter wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 LA-02 House seat; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The outcome is verified by the Democratic and Republican Party websites. The market opened on February 26, 2026, and will close after the outcome occurs, or by November 3, 2027, if the outcome is not determined by then. Individuals employed by the specified "Source Agencies" are prohibited from trading.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Carter | $0.99 | $0.05 | 95% |
| Renada Collins | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Which Candidates Hold Endorsements in LA-02 Democratic Primary?
| Troy Carter 2026 Endorsements | Orleans Parish Democratic Executive Committee (OPDEC), Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DSCC) [^] |
|---|---|
| Renada Collins 2026 Endorsements | None identified from key organizations or prominent leaders [^] |
| Troy Carter 2021 Endorsements | Louisiana AFL-CIO, Congressional Black Caucus PAC [^] |
5. What are the 2026 campaign finance details for Troy Carter and Renada Collins?
| Troy Carter Cash-on-Hand | $1,617,219.86 (as of December 31, 2025) [^] |
|---|---|
| Troy Carter 2026 Operating Expenditures | $28,665.48 (as of December 31, 2025) [^] |
| Renada Collins 2026 Financial Data | No financial data on file with FEC [^] |
6. What are LA-02 Democratic Candidates' Stances on Crime and Infrastructure?
| Troy Carter's Crime Focus | Securing federal funding for criminal justice initiatives (New Orleans) [^] |
|---|---|
| Renada Collins's Platform | Comprehensive approach to crime (root causes, law enforcement) and federal investment in modernizing infrastructure (roads, bridges, public transit, broadband) [^] |
| John Day's Platform | Addressing systemic issues contributing to crime (community policing, prevention) and federal investment in repairing infrastructure (roads, bridges, ports, renewable energy) [^] |
7. Are Internal Polls for LA-02 Showing Incumbent Deviations?
| LA-02 Internal Polling Data | No information available regarding non-public or local polling data [^] |
|---|---|
| Deviation from Incumbent Support (LA-02) | No significant deviations from expected incumbent support reported among specific voter blocs [^] |
| Public Polling on LA-02 Election | Not reported; public poll pertained to a Louisiana Senate primary race [^] |
8. What is the Ad Buy Advantage for Carter and Collins in LA-02?
| TV Ad Schedule | Specific details for final 21 days not available [^] |
|---|---|
| Digital Ad Volume | Specific details for final 21 days not available [^] |
| Ad Messaging Focus | Specific details for New Orleans market not available [^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.