CA-11 House winner? (Person)
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Scott Wiener leads in endorsements and fundraising, securing DCCC support.
- Scott Wiener also leads early polling, despite a lack of statewide consensus.
- Saikat Chakrabarti shows significant mobilization efforts but lacks party endorsements.
- Marie Hurabiell and Marjan Philhour struggle with low polling and endorsements.
- Matt Haney shows no federal campaign finance filings, indicating inactive candidacy.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saikat Chakrabarti | 37.0% | 30.9% | Chakrabarti faces a competitive field for the nomination in this district. |
| Scott Wiener | 62.0% | 60.0% | Senator Wiener is considered the leading candidate with significant established support. |
| Connie Chan | 6.0% | 5.5% | Chan is a contender, but has less established support compared to other candidates. |
| Marie Hurabiell | 5.0% | 3.6% | Hurabiell's campaign seeks to build momentum against more prominent candidates. |
| Matt Haney | 0.0% | 0.0% | Haney is considered an outside challenger in the current political landscape. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Saikat Chakrabarti
📉 April 27, 2026: 20.0pp drop
Price decreased from 49.0% to 29.0%
📈 April 17, 2026: 20.0pp spike
Price increased from 17.0% to 37.0%
Outcome: Scott Wiener
📉 April 18, 2026: 16.0pp drop
Price decreased from 73.0% to 57.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Scott Wiener wins the CA-11 House election in 2026, with the outcome verified by the California Secretary of State; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on April 14, 2026, with the election beginning November 3, 2026, and will close and payout approximately 30 minutes after the outcome occurs, or by November 3, 2027, at the latest. Settlement can be accelerated if a consensus of media organizations projects the winner, and persons employed by Source Agencies are prohibited from trading.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Wiener | $0.63 | $0.38 | 62% |
| Saikat Chakrabarti | $0.37 | $0.65 | 37% |
| Connie Chan | $0.08 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Marie Hurabiell | $0.03 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Matt Haney | $0.04 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Did Scott Wiener secure DCCC endorsement for U.S. House?
| Scott Wiener's Weighted Votes | 13,010 [^] |
|---|---|
| Marjan Philhour's Weighted Votes | 1,607 [^] |
| Wiener's Vote Percentage | 87% (exceeding 60% threshold) [^] |
6. What are the Latest Federal Campaign Finance Details for Scott Wiener?
| Scott Wiener Cash-on-Hand | $1,465,586.20 (as of December 31, 2023) [^] |
|---|---|
| Scott Wiener Net Cash Increase | $284,904.79 (Q3 to Q4 2023) [^] |
| Matt Haney Federal Filings | No federal campaign filings found [^], [^] |
7. How Do Canvassing Efforts Compare in Sunset vs. Mission Districts?
| Volunteer Canvassing Shifts (Sunset vs. Mission) | No specific comparative data available [^] |
|---|---|
| Doors Knocked (Sunset vs. Mission) | No specific comparative data available [^] |
| Chakrabarti Westside Volunteers (April 2026) | Over 50 volunteers for Mega Canvass [^] |
8. Does Marie Hurabiell Have Key Endorsements and Broad Support?
| Major Business Endorsements | No evidence from SF Chamber of Commerce or similar groups [^] |
|---|---|
| Scott Wiener Supporter Second Choice | No polling data shows >30% for Hurabiell; one poll shows "single digits" overall [^] |
| Political Stance | Self-identifies as "moderate Democrat" criticizing city's "leftward political direction" [^] |
9. What Were the Key Outcomes of the CADEM Region 4 Caucus?
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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