Who will Trump endorse in the 2026 primaries?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing: Derek Dooley at 100.0% model vs 6.0% market, suggesting a strong belief in this outcome despite current market sentiment for who Trump will endorse in the 2026 primaries.
1. Executive Verdict
- Trump is actively making 2026 primary endorsements, confirmed by Letlow.
- Senator Lindsey Graham frequently interacted with Donald Trump since 2025.
- Data on Trump endorsement's impact on Texas primaries is limited.
- Specific relationships between Trump's 2024 team and endorsees are undisclosed.
- Small-dollar donations show candidate grassroots appeal and base enthusiasm.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Miguez | 2.0% | 1.6% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| John Fleming | 3.0% | 2.4% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Andy Barr | 41.0% | 100.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Nate Morris | 14.0% | 100.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Daniel Cameron | 20.0% | 100.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has demonstrated a stable, sideways trading pattern since its inception. The price has been confined to a very narrow range, moving from a low of 4.9% to a high of 6.0%. This suggests the market established a clear support level at 4.9% and is currently testing resistance at the 6.0% mark. The primary price movement was a modest increase from the 4.9% floor to the 6.0% ceiling early in the market's history. Given the lack of specific news or external context, this shift cannot be attributed to any particular event and likely reflects initial price discovery as traders first entered the market.
The trading volume provides further insight into market conviction. With a total of only 296 contracts traded across 146 data points, activity has been extremely light. The low volume indicates a lack of significant participation or strong opinions among traders. In such a thin market, even small trades can influence the price, but the stability within the narrow range suggests a general consensus at a very low probability.
Overall, the price action reflects a market sentiment of high uncertainty but low perceived probability for the event in question. The sideways trend and minimal volume suggest traders are in a "wait and see" mode, having priced in a roughly 5-6% chance of a Trump endorsement by the resolution date. The market appears to be waiting for a significant catalyst to break out of its established range, but for now, it shows little conviction in either direction.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Andy Barr
📉 April 27, 2026: 40.0pp drop
Price decreased from 78.0% to 38.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 26, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 70.0% to 78.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 24, 2026: 11.0pp spike
Price increased from 49.0% to 60.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
📈 April 22, 2026: 21.0pp spike
Price increased from 25.0% to 46.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
Outcome: Buddy Carter
📈 April 25, 2026: 28.0pp spike
Price increased from 5.0% to 33.0%
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
- YES Resolution Trigger: The market resolves to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses Andy Barr in the 2026 Kentucky Senate Republican primary.
- NO Resolution Trigger: The market resolves to "No" if no such endorsement occurs by the closing date.
- Key Dates/Deadlines: The endorsement must happen before May 19, 2026, by which time the market will close if the endorsement has not occurred. The market opened on November 22, 2025, and projected payouts are 30 minutes after closing.
- Special Settlement Conditions: An endorsement requires a clear, public, affirmative statement of support directly from Donald Trump or his official channels, specifically referencing the race, and must be verifiable through a list of specified media outlets or official campaign announcements. Positive comments, policy endorsements, conditional endorsements, likes/retweets, sarcastic statements, or private communications do not qualify. Employees of the listed source agencies are prohibited from trading.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Fleming | $0.05 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Blake Miguez | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Mike Collins | $0.73 | $0.34 | 72% |
| Andy Barr | $0.47 | $0.58 | 41% |
| Buddy Carter | $0.20 | $0.86 | 21% |
| Daniel Cameron | $0.18 | $0.84 | 20% |
| Nate Morris | $0.14 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Derek Dooley | $0.07 | $0.99 | 6% |
| Marsha Blackburn | $0.61 | $0.41 | 61% |
| John Rose | $0.18 | $0.90 | 11% |
Market Discussion
Traders are actively predicting Donald Trump's endorsements for the 2026 primaries, with Mike Collins (Georgia Senate) and Marsha Blackburn (Tennessee Governor) currently seen as highly likely to receive support (72% and 61% respectively), while Andy Barr (Kentucky Senate) is less favored at 41%. Discussion highlights that while endorsements do occur (e.g., Julia Letlow's market resolved to Yes), market deadlines are crucial, as seen with Texas candidates Ken Paxton and John Cornyn, whose initial primary endorsement markets resolved to "No" before a new market opened for a potential runoff.
5. Which Senators Frequently Appeared With Donald Trump Since 2025?
| Most Documented Appearances with Trump Since 2025 | Senator Lindsey Graham [^] |
|---|---|
| Graham's Notable Achievement with Trump | Won a member-guest golf tournament [^] |
| Other Senator Appearance with Trump | Senator Tim Scott on Air Force One [^] |
Senator Lindsey Graham has had the most documented interactions with Donald Trump since January 1, 2025. These engagements include planning a golf fundraiser [^], being present at Mar-a-Lago during Super Bowl weekend where he complimented Trump's golf skills [^], and winning a Trump member-guest golf tournament days after an endorsement [^]. Graham was also noted traveling with President Trump on Air Force One to a "big game" [^].
Other notable individuals had fewer documented appearances with gaps in information. Senator Tim Scott also made an appearance with Donald Trump, traveling together on Air Force One to a major sporting event [^]. While Representative Byron Donalds has received Trump's support for the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race and met with him, the specific dates of his appearances at Mar-a-Lago since January 1, 2025, are not explicitly detailed in the available research [^]. The provided research does not contain any information regarding the sentiment analysis of public statements specifically defending Trump against his legal challenges.
6. How Does Trump's Endorsement Impact Texas Primary Matchups?
| Cornyn support increase with Trump endorsement | 5 percentage points (University of Texas/Texas Politics Project) [^] |
|---|---|
| Paxton support increase with Trump endorsement | 7 percentage points (Democratic Senate Majority PAC) [^] |
| Paxton lead over Cornyn without endorsement | 14 percentage points (University of Texas/Texas Politics Project) [^] |
While specific polling data from GOP-aligned Super PACs detailing projected vote share increases after a hypothetical Trump endorsement in high-profile 2026 primary matchups, such as Ken Paxton vs. John Cornyn, is not available, other polls offer insights. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll indicated that a Trump endorsement would boost Senator John Cornyn's support by 5 percentage points, moving him from 30 percent to 35 percent among likely GOP primary runoff voters. In this same scenario, Ken Paxton's support would see a marginal increase of 1 percentage point, going from 44 percent to 45 percent, thereby maintaining his lead [^]. Without a Trump endorsement, this particular poll found Paxton leading Cornyn 44 percent to 30 percent [^].
Paxton's lead solidifies with Trump endorsement in separate poll. A separate survey, commissioned by the Democratic Senate Majority PAC and conducted by Change Research, also examined the impact of a Trump endorsement in a hypothetical Paxton vs. Cornyn runoff. This poll showed Paxton leading Cornyn 48 percent to 40 percent without a Trump endorsement [^]. If Trump were to endorse Cornyn, Cornyn's support remained at 40 percent, while Paxton's support slightly increased to 49 percent. Conversely, an endorsement from Trump for Paxton would result in a significant 7-percentage-point jump for Paxton, from 48 percent to 55 percent, while Cornyn's support would decrease from 40 percent to 34 percent [^].
7. What are the relationships between Trump's 2024 team and 2026 endorsees?
| Trump Campaign Leader Relationships | No specific details on personal or financial relationships for 2026 endorsees [^] |
|---|---|
| Nick Fuentes' Coverage | Favorable on Steve Bannon's 'War Room' for challenging 'Conservative Inc.' [^] |
| 'War Room' Candidate Preference | Champions 'grassroots' candidates opposing 'RINO' candidates [^] |
Specific relationships between endorsees and campaign leadership remain undisclosed. The available research does not provide specific details regarding personal or financial relationships between potential endorsees for the 2026 primaries and key members of Trump's 2024 campaign leadership, such as Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita. While Wiles and LaCivita were instrumental in Trump's successful return to the White House, the provided sources do not elaborate on their individual connections to candidates being considered for future endorsements [^].
Steve Bannon's 'War Room' favors anti-establishment, grassroots candidates. Regarding influential platforms, Steve Bannon's 'War Room' has given favorable coverage to specific candidates aligning with its anti-establishment views, generally advocating for 'grassroots' candidates who are actively fighting against 'RINO candidates.' Nick Fuentes, for example, received positive portrayal for his critiques of traditional conservative figures in a segment titled 'Nick Fuentes Takes Down Conservative Inc in a Debate That Lays Bare the Old Guard's Collapse' [^]. The 'War Room' indicates a clear preference for insurgent candidates over establishment Republicans, with content, such as episode 5235, frequently highlighting this theme of grassroots resistance against the established political order [^].
8. Which Candidates Rely Most on Small-Dollar Donations?
| Mallory McMorrow Small-Dollar Contributions | 68% [^] |
|---|---|
| Adam Schiff Small-Dollar Contributions | 32% [^] |
| Hakeem Jeffries Small-Dollar Contributions | 25% [^] |
Small-dollar donations demonstrate a candidate's grassroots appeal and base enthusiasm. These contributions, defined as under $200, are a key metric for assessing a candidate's base enthusiasm and ability to mobilize support [^]. For the 2026 election cycle, US Senate candidate Mallory McMorrow has shown a strong reliance on broad, smaller-scale financial backing, with 68% of her individual campaign contributions coming from small-dollar donors, indicating significant mobilization of this support [^].
Mallory McMorrow's small-dollar donor support surpasses other notable candidates. Adam Schiff's campaign, for instance, reported 32% of his individual contributions from donors giving under $200 [^]. Similarly, Hakeem Jeffries' campaign filings indicate that 25% of his individual contributions originated from small-dollar donors [^]. These percentages reflect a portion of their funding from smaller contributions but are notably lower than the percentage reported by McMorrow [^]. Campaign finance reports, derived from detailed FEC filings [^] and analyses by organizations such as USPollingData.com [^] and OpenSecrets [^], consistently show that effective mobilization of small-dollar donors often signals strong grassroots support and broad base appeal, demonstrating a candidate's resonance with specific political bases.
9. Does Donald Trump Consistently Endorse Early to Clear the Field?
| Endorsement Pattern | Varied, often delayed or strategic [^] |
|---|---|
| Double Endorsements | History of issuing "double endorsements" [^] |
| Midterm Endorsements | 196 in midterms alone [^] |
Donald Trump's endorsement timing does not consistently clear primary fields early. His approach is varied, often involving delays, strategic endorsements in later stages of a primary contest, or even refraining from endorsing candidates altogether [^]. Furthermore, his history of issuing "double endorsements" directly contradicts the idea of clearing the field for a single chosen candidate [^].
Trump frequently delays endorsements, waiting for primary fields to develop. He has sometimes waited until after an initial primary election to endorse in a runoff [^]. In other cases, he explicitly stated he was "not ready to endorse" in a primary [^] or acknowledged frontrunners without endorsing a specific favorite [^]. This nuanced strategy suggests he often waits for the primary field to mature or for frontrunners to emerge before making a decision. Some observers suggest this approach helps "pad his record" by endorsing candidates already likely to win [^], indicating his endorsements are strategically timed to maximize impact or back candidates who have demonstrated strength, rather than preemptively clearing a path.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 03, 2026
- Closes: August 06, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 4 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPENDORSE-26SEP15-WHUN: NO (Mar 03, 2026)
- KXTRUMPENDORSE-26SEP15-KPAX: NO (Mar 03, 2026)
- KXTRUMPENDORSE-26SEP15-JLET: YES (Mar 21, 2026)
- KXTRUMPENDORSE-26SEP15-JCOR: NO (Mar 03, 2026)
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