Spain GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Spain's GDP growth rate QoQ for Q1 2026 to be Above -0.1%, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Spain's Q1 2026 GDP growth confirmed at 0.6% QoQ.
- This growth rate exceeded market expectations of 0.5%.
- Resilient private consumption and employment drove the Q1 2026 GDP growth.
- Spain led major Eurozone economies in Q1 2026 growth.
- Early 2026 high-frequency indicators suggest cooling economic momentum.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.0% | The confirmed GDP growth of 0.6% is below the 1.3% threshold. |
| Above -0.1% | 99.0% | 100.0% | Spain's Q1 2026 GDP growth was confirmed at 0.6% QoQ, which is above -0.1%. |
| Above 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% | The confirmed GDP growth of 0.6% is below the 1.1% threshold. |
| Above 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% | The confirmed GDP growth of 0.6% is below the 1.2% threshold. |
| Above -0.0% | 99.0% | 100.0% | Spain's Q1 2026 GDP growth was confirmed at 0.6% QoQ, which is above 0.0%. |
Current Context
Spain's GDP growth moderated slightly in Q1 2026. The Spanish economy expanded by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, which represents a slight slowdown from the 0.8% growth recorded in the previous quarter of Q4 2025 [^][^][^]. Concurrently, the year-on-year GDP growth for Spain in Q1 2026 registered at 2.7% [^][^][^].
Domestic demand, especially household consumption, drove Q1 growth. Economic expansion during Q1 2026 was predominantly propelled by robust domestic demand, particularly the spending by private households [^][^][^]. Conversely, growth in investment showed moderation, and the contribution from net exports to the overall economic performance was mixed [^][^][^].
Experts see a resilient Spanish economy, tempered by uncertainties. Expert analyses generally describe the Spanish economy as resilient despite ongoing challenges [^][^]. However, projections for 2026 growth are being tempered by factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, specifically conflict in the Middle East, sustained high energy prices, and the impact of tighter monetary policy [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market's chart shows no price action or trading history. The price has remained static at a 99.0% probability for a "YES" outcome since its inception. Consequently, there are no trends, significant movements, price spikes, or drops to analyze. The chart is a flat line, indicating that the market opened with a price reflecting near-absolute certainty about the resolution.
The lack of activity is further confirmed by a total trading volume of zero contracts. This suggests a complete absence of market participation and conviction, as no traders have taken a position. Without any trading, no support or resistance levels have been established; the 99.0% mark is the only price point in the market's history. The market sentiment, as represented by this high and unchanging price, indicates that the outcome is considered a foregone conclusion. This aligns with the provided context, where it is reported that Spain's economy expanded by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026. The market price appears to be a direct reflection of this publicly available data rather than a result of speculative trading.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves Yes if Spain's Q1 2026 GDP growth rate QoQ is above 0.6%, and No if it is 0.6% or below, with the outcome verified by Trading Economics. The market opened April 30, 2026, and will close early upon the release of economic data, or by June 25, 2026, if data is not released. Payouts are projected 30 minutes after closing, and insider trading by relevant personnel is prohibited.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.0% | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| Above -0.1% | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 0.1% | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 0.2% | $0.99 | $0.04 | 94% |
| Above 0.3% | $0.99 | $0.06 | 94% |
| Above 0.4% | $0.99 | $0.06 | 93% |
| Above 0.5% | $0.98 | $0.12 | 93% |
| Above 0.6% | $0.23 | $0.87 | 22% |
| Above 1.0% | $0.04 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Above 1.1% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 1.2% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 1.3% | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 0.7% | $0.07 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 0.8% | $0.06 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 0.9% | $0.06 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Spain's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, slightly exceeding the consensus market expectation of 0.5% and following a 0.8% growth rate in Q4 2025 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This expansion was predominantly driven by resilient domestic demand and private consumption, with net exports also making a positive contribution due to a greater decline in imports than exports, despite a moderation in investment growth [^][^][^][^]. Economic commentary highlights the economy's resilience amidst headwinds like geopolitical tensions, though some indicators suggest a potential moderation in growth for Q2 2026 [^][^][^].
4. What do forward-looking tourism and travel sector bookings for Q1 2026 indicate about the strength of Spain's service economy?
| International tourist arrivals increase | 2.5% year-on-year (Q1 2026) [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Tourism-related employment rise | 5.3% (Q1 2026) [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Spain's GDP growth | 0.6% quarter-on-quarter (Q1 2026) [^][^][^][^][^] |
While specific forward-looking tourism and travel sector bookings for Q1 2026 are not available, Spain's Q1 2026 service economy was significantly boosted by tourism. The tourism sector substantially bolstered the service economy during this period. International tourist arrivals increased by 2.5% year-on-year, and tourism-related employment saw a 5.3% rise [^][^][^][^][^]. Despite domestic inflationary pressures and reduced spending by Spanish residents moderating overall tourism spending growth, international tourism remained robust, partly attributed to travelers diverting from Middle Eastern conflict zones [^][^][^].
Spain's GDP grew, with services contributing despite external challenges. Spain's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026 [^][^][^][^][^]. The service sector continued its strong contribution to this economic growth. However, the overall GDP expansion faced constraints from a decline in external demand and weaker investment momentum [^][^][^][^][^].
5. How does Spain's projected Q1 2026 economic growth compare to that of Germany, France, and Italy?
| Spain Q1 2026 GDP Growth | 0.6% [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Germany Q1 2026 GDP Growth | 0.3% [^][^] |
| France Q1 2026 GDP Growth | 0.0% [^][^] |
Spain led major Eurozone economies in Q1 2026 growth. Spain's economy experienced a significant quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 0.6% in the first quarter of 2026 [^][^][^]. This robust performance enabled Spain to outperform its major Eurozone peers, including Germany, France, and Italy, during this period [^][^].
Germany, Italy, and France showed lower, varied growth. Among other large Eurozone economies, Germany's GDP expanded by 0.3% in Q1 2026, while Italy's GDP saw an increase of 0.2% [^][^]. France, in contrast, recorded a stagnant growth rate of 0.0% during the same quarter [^][^]. Italy's economic performance surpassed that of France but remained lower compared to both Spain and Germany [^].
6. What do high-frequency indicators like the HCOB Spain Composite PMI from Q4 2025 and early 2026 suggest about economic momentum?
| Spain GDP Growth Rate Q1 2026 | 0.6% quarter-on-quarter [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| HCOB Spain Composite PMI February 2026 | 51.5 [^][^][^][^] |
| Spain GDP Growth Rate Q4 2025 | 0.8% quarter-on-quarter [^][^][^] |
High-frequency indicators from early 2026 suggest a cooling of economic momentum in Spain. The HCOB Spain Composite PMI, a key indicator, showed a decline from 55.6 in December 2025 to 52.9 in January and 51.5 in February 2026 [^][^][^][^]. This trend indicates an easing of momentum within the services sector and a contraction in manufacturing [^][^][^][^].
This cooling trend aligns with Spain's decelerating GDP growth. Official GDP growth for Q1 2026 was reported at 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, a decrease from 0.8% in Q4 2025 [^][^][^]. While domestic private consumption helped sustain growth, exports and investment encountered challenges [^][^][^]. Broader concerns persist regarding the underlying momentum in the European economy, partly due to higher energy prices [^][^]. These economic pressures are compounded by consumer uncertainty about the economic outlook, employment, and geopolitical tensions [^].
7. How are Spain's major financial institutions, such as BBVA and CaixaBank, factoring geopolitical risks and energy price volatility into their 2026 GDP forecasts?
| BBVA Estimated GDP Reduction | 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points (for every 10% sustained increase in imported fuel costs over two years) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| CaixaBank 2026 GDP Forecast (Revised) | 2.1% (down from 2.4%) [^][^][^] |
| Spain Q1 2026 GDP Growth (QoQ) | 0.6% [^][^][^] |
Spanish financial institutions integrate geopolitical and energy risks into forecasts. Major institutions, including BBVA and CaixaBank, actively incorporate geopolitical risks and energy price volatility when developing their 2026 GDP forecasts. They specifically identify energy price volatility as the primary mechanism through which geopolitical conflicts influence economic outlooks. These institutions employ scenario-based modeling, adjusting their GDP growth expectations based on the projected duration of conflicts and their potential impacts on energy markets, such as a prolonged blockade leading to significantly higher energy prices, reduced external demand, and a decline in consumer and business confidence [^][^][^][^].
Specific forecasts reflect the potential economic impact of these risks. For example, BBVA estimates that a sustained 10% increase in imported fuel costs would reduce cumulative GDP growth by 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points over a two-year period [^][^]. Reflecting these considerations, CaixaBank revised its 2026 GDP forecast downwards from an initial 2.4% to 2.1% [^][^][^]. Spain's actual GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2026 was 0.6% on a quarter-on-quarter basis [^][^][^].
8. How might the European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions in late 2025 impact Spain's consumer spending and investment in Q1 2026?
| ECB Deposit Facility Rate (late 2025) | 2.00% [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Spain GDP Growth Q1 2026 | 0.6% quarter-on-quarter [^][^][^][^] |
| Spain Investment Growth Q1 2026 | 0.1% q/q [^][^][^] |
The European Central Bank's monetary policy decisions in late 2025, which maintained its deposit facility rate at 2.00%, had a limited immediate impact on Spain's consumer spending and investment in Q1 2026. The ECB's approach was data-dependent, focusing on stability amid global uncertainties [^][^]. During this period, Spain's economic performance was more heavily influenced by other factors, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East affecting energy prices and trade, as well as domestic fiscal measures [^][^]. Additionally, consumer uncertainty regarding economic growth and employment prospects contributed to the overall environment [^].
Spain's Q1 2026 GDP grew, primarily driven by domestic demand. The Spanish economy expanded by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026. This growth was largely propelled by strong domestic demand, particularly private consumption, which also grew by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter [^][^][^][^]. In contrast, investment growth experienced a notable slowdown, with gross capital formation increasing by only 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, reflecting a technical moderation despite showing resilience year-on-year [^][^][^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Spain's economy showed resilience with a 0.6% QoQ GDP growth in Q1 2026, surpassing the market expectation of 0.5% [^] [^] [^] . This performance was driven by resilient private consumption and employment [^][^][^]. However, recent economic outlooks have moderated full-year 2026 GDP growth forecasts to between 2.1% and 2.4% due to deteriorating international conditions and supply chain disruptions [^].
Key bearish risks include geopolitical instability, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, rising energy prices, and structural low labor productivity [^] [^] [^] . Spain">[^]. Additionally, consumer uncertainty regarding the outlook for economic growth and employment, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, presents a challenge [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: July 02, 2026
- Closes: June 25, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Spain's economy showed resilience with a 0.6% QoQ GDP growth in Q1 2026, surpassing the market expectation of 0.5% [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This performance was driven by resilient private consumption and employment [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: However, recent economic outlooks have moderated full-year 2026 GDP growth forecasts to between 2.1% and 2.4% due to deteriorating international conditions and supply chain disruptions [^] .
- Trigger: Key bearish risks include geopolitical instability, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, rising energy prices, and structural low labor productivity [^] [^] [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 15 markets in this series
Outcomes: 7 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXESGDPQOQF-26APR30-T1.3: NO (Apr 30, 2026)
- KXESGDPQOQF-26APR30-T1.2: NO (Apr 30, 2026)
- KXESGDPQOQF-26APR30-T1.1: NO (Apr 30, 2026)
- KXESGDPQOQF-26APR30-T1: NO (Apr 30, 2026)
- KXESGDPQOQF-26APR30-T0.9: NO (Apr 30, 2026)
