Jet fuel prices for the week ending April 24, 2026

Q1 2026 crude oil futures indicated sharply elevated prices. Crude oil and petroleum product prices experienced a sharp increase in the first quarter of 2026 ^{[^]}. Forward curves for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil futures reflected this elevated pricing. Specifically, WTI crude oil futures for March 2026 were approximately $94.60 per barrel ^{[^]}, while Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 were priced around $99.98 per barrel ^{[^]}. The overall shape of the crude oil forward curve demonstrated front-end strength, yet showed softness in longer-dated contracts ^{[^]}.

These prices reflected market expectations of tight supply or strong demand. The market potentially factored in a continuation of disciplined supply management by OPEC+. However, significant OPEC+ decisions in March 2026 included adding 206,000 barrels per day (b/d) to production ^{[^]}. This decision, occurring towards the end of Q1, likely influenced the subsequent flattening and slump in futures observed by April 2026 ^{[^]}. The market adjusted to this increased supply following an initial "war-driven spike" ^{[^]}.

Global Available Seat Kilometers (ASKs) showed robust year-over-year growth early in 2026. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global ASKs increased by 4.2% in January 2026 compared to January 2025 ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}. This upward trend continued into February 2026, with a 5.7% rise in global ASKs year-over-year ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}. Overall, the average year-over-year growth for the first two months of 2026 was approximately 4.95%.

Major airlines have varied capacity impacts from fleet adjustments. For example, Delta Air Lines has revised its fleet plans, now expecting the delivery of 27 Boeing 737 MAX 10 aircraft to commence in 2027, rather than the previously anticipated 2026 ^{[^]}. This deferral is projected to temper Delta's overall capacity growth. In contrast, Lufthansa's fleet strategy includes the scheduled delivery of new wide-body aircraft, such as Airbus A350s and Boeing 787s, during the first half of 2026 ^{[^]}. These additions are intended to support long-haul expansion and contribute to an increase in Lufthansa's ASKs.

The futures market offers mechanisms to price the jet fuel crack spread, specifically for delivery in Q1 2026. Contracts such as the Singapore Jet Kerosene (Platts) vs. Dubai (Platts) Crack Spread Swap Futures and the Jet Fuel Crack – Singapore Jet Kerosene Cargoes (Platts) vs Dubai 1st Line (Platts) Future are traded on exchanges like CME Group and ICE ^{[^]}. These instruments facilitate the pricing of the margin between jet fuel and crude oil for future dates. Additionally, Jet Fuel Cargoes CIF NWE (Platts) Crack Spread futures contracts are also available ^{[^]}. While these platforms allow for Q1 2026 delivery pricing, the provided sources do not contain specific pricing data for that future quarter.

The global refinery landscape is set to undergo significant shifts by Q1 2026, characterized by both closures and capacity expansions. In the U.S., refinery closures are anticipated to tighten fuel stocks in 2026 amidst rising demand ^{[^]}. Globally, there are ongoing reports of refinery rationalization, with some facilities facing potential closure by 2026 ^{[^]}. Conversely, the industry also expects scheduled capacity additions and upgrades, such as the upgrade project completed by INA at its Rijeka refinery, which aims to increase output ^{[^]}. This dynamic environment of facility closures and new or expanded capacity indicates a rebalancing of global refining infrastructure that will impact fuel supply by Q1 2026 ^{[^]}.

ReFuelEU mandates a 2% Sustainable Aviation Fuel blend by 2026. Under the EU's ReFuelEU Aviation initiative, a minimum of 2% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) must be made available for all flights departing from EU airports for the 2026 compliance year ^{[^]}. This initial requirement is part of a broader strategy to incrementally increase SAF blending, aiming for 70% by 2050 ^{[^]}. The mandated 2% volume directly correlates with the overall jet fuel demand in 2026.

SAF production costs remain significantly higher than traditional jet fuel. The estimated cost of SAF is 2 to 5 times greater than conventional jet fuel, influenced by the chosen feedstock and production pathway ^{[^]}. Specifically for 2026, Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) SAF is forecast to cost between $1.50 and $3.50 per gallon, while Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) SAF is projected to range from $2.00 to $4.50 per gallon, prior to any subsidies or tax credits ^{[^]}. This substantial cost disparity poses a significant economic challenge for widespread SAF adoption without robust policy support.

Global SAF production capacity will fall short of demand by 2026. Projected global SAF production capacity is expected to reach approximately 2 to 3 billion gallons per year by 2026 ^{[^]}. However, this volume constitutes less than 1% of the total global jet fuel demand, which surpasses 100 billion gallons annually ^{[^]}. Industry experts, including the International Air Transport Association (IATA), have observed a deceleration in SAF production growth, underscoring the necessity for intensified investment to bridge the potential gap between mandated volumes and available capacity by 2026, particularly as more advanced e-SAF mandates approach ^{[^]}.

U.S. jet fuel stocks are projected to reach 37.8 million barrels by the end of Q1 2026. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from April 2026, U.S. stocks of 'Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel' are specifically forecasted to total 37.8 million barrels for March 2026 ^{[^]}. These projections offer an outlook on expected petroleum product inventory levels as the first quarter concludes ^{[^]}.

Historical data shows a five-year average of 39.95 million barrels for end-of-quarter stocks. The 5-year average for 'Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel' stocks at the end of March, covering the period from 2020 to 2024, is approximately 39.95 million barrels ^{[^]}. This average is derived from the EIA's historical monthly stock data, with individual March figures ranging from 41.76 million barrels in 2020 to 38.71 million barrels in 2024 ^{[^]}.

The forecast anticipates a 5.4% decrease compared to the historical average. The projected U.S. 'Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel' stock level of 37.8 million barrels for the end of Q1 2026 is approximately 2.15 million barrels lower than the 5-year historical average for March, which is 39.95 million barrels ^{[^]}. This suggests the EIA expects jet fuel inventories to be roughly 5.4% below the average levels observed at the end of the first quarter over the most recent five complete years of historical data ^{[^]}.

Catalyst analysis unavailable.