CPI in April

Forward-looking rent indices provided differing projections for year-over-year growth by late 2025. The Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) indicated a 3.4% year-over-year increase in rent for December 2025, suggesting a cooling yet still positive growth trend, marking 15 consecutive months of decelerating annual rent growth ^{[^]}. In contrast, the Apartment List National Rent Index reported national median rents were approximately 0% year-over-year in December 2025, with modest growth of 1-2% anticipated nationally in 2026 ^{[^]}.

The CPI Shelter component reflects market rents with a significant lag. There is an established 12-18 month lag between changes in market rents and their full incorporation into the official BLS CPI Shelter component ^{[^]}. This implies that market rent trends observed in late 2025 would primarily impact the CPI Shelter component in late 2026 or early 2027. Consequently, the CPI Shelter component for April 2026 would reflect market rent conditions from approximately October 2024 to April 2025, rather than the more recent figures from late 2025 ^{[^]}. However, if the deceleration or flatness in market rents seen in late 2025 was indicative of an earlier trend, the April 2026 CPI Shelter component could still show significantly reduced inflation ^{[^]}.

Corporate surveys project stable, elevated salary increases through 2026. US employers anticipate sustained, yet stable, salary increases extending through 2025 and 2026, according to analyses from major compensation firms. Mercer's March 2025 US Compensation Planning Survey reported an average salary increase budget of 3.8% for 2025, with projections holding steady at 3.8% for 2026 ^{[^]}. Similarly, Willis Towers Watson (WTW) forecasts a 3.4% average increase to salary budgets for 2026 ^{[^]}. These figures indicate a consistent and elevated pace of wage growth, maintaining the current pressure on compensation budgets ^{[^]}.

Anticipated wage growth signals sustained pressure on Supercore inflation. These stable and elevated wage growth expectations are crucial for forecasting economic indicators such as the Employment Cost Index (ECI), which measures comprehensive changes in compensation costs ^{[^]}. With Mercer and WTW projecting average salary increases ranging from 3.4% to 3.8% through 2026, the underlying wage growth reflected in the ECI is expected to remain high. Strong ECI growth is a primary determinant of the 'Core Services ex-Housing' (Supercore) inflation component ^{[^]}. Therefore, the consistent compensation budgets anticipated by employers through 2026 suggest that persistent wage pressures will continue to contribute to Supercore inflation, potentially impacting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April 2026 ^{[^]}.

Used vehicle values rose consistently in Q1 2026, signaling inflation. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI), which tracks wholesale used vehicle prices, showed a clear upward trend throughout the first quarter of 2026. Cox Automotive reported consistent increases, attributing them to a 'healthy spring bounce' that elevated used-vehicle values ^{[^]}. This upward momentum was observed monthly, with increases noted in January ^{[^]}, February ^{[^]}, and March 2026 ^{[^]}. This sustained rise in wholesale prices, particularly from February to March 2026, directly signals inflationary pressure. Given that the used cars and trucks component of the April 2026 CPI print primarily reflects price changes from March 2026, this continuous MUVVI increase points to an inflationary directional contribution from the category.

Despite minor stability, overall wholesale data indicates inflationary pressure. While one report indicated that 'car prices held' during the March 2026 CPI surge, which saw energy prices explode by 10.9% ^{[^]}, this likely suggests relative stability or a more modest increase compared to other categories, rather than a decline. The overarching trend from wholesale auction data, specifically the Manheim Index, confirms that used vehicle values were generally moving upward in early 2026. This pronounced increase throughout Q1 2026 ^{[^]} is therefore the primary driver for the expected inflationary contribution to the April 2026 CPI print from the used cars and trucks category.

Crude oil futures indicate potential stability for late 2025 and early 2026. For delivery during this period, crude oil futures curves suggest potential stability or even softness in pricing, with market analysis noting a 'long-dated softness' within the curve ^{[^]}. Specifically, crude oil futures for April 2026 have experienced a slump, contributing to a flattening curve after earlier spikes driven by geopolitical events ^{[^]}. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) offers both short-term and long-term energy market outlooks, including the Annual Energy Outlook 2026, which details projected trends and pricing ^{[^]}. Market expectations, which account for these supply and demand dynamics, are currently reflected in RBOB gasoline futures for January 2026 and February 2026 ^{[^]}.

U.S. energy policy post-2024 election could significantly impact gasoline prices. A substantial variable affecting gasoline prices in late 2025 and early 2026 is the potential for shifts in U.S. energy policy following the 2024 presidential election. A new administration might prioritize increasing domestic oil and gas production through deregulation and streamlined permitting, which could enhance crude oil supply and potentially lower prices ^{[^]}. Furthermore, the management of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) could also change, particularly since the Biden administration concluded its replenishment efforts in November 2024 ^{[^]}. Future administrations may adjust the SPR's role through additional releases or aggressive replenishment strategies, thereby influencing market supply and prices throughout late 2025 and early 2026 ^{[^]}.

The BLS will update CPI component weights in early 2026. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to implement its biennial update of Consumer Price Index (CPI) component weights in early 2026. This adjustment will take effect in February with the release of the January 2026 CPI data ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}. The BLS will incorporate consumer expenditure data from 2023 and 2024, reflecting current spending patterns, as part of its regular process to update the "relative importance" of various goods and services within the CPI basket ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}.

Housing and Transportation weights are projected to shift significantly. Analysis of projected consumer expenditure shifts anticipates notable changes in relative importance for several categories. Housing, specifically the Shelter component, is projected to see a significant weight increase, potentially rising several percentage points from its December 2024 weight of 34.425% ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}. Conversely, the Transportation category is projected to experience a decrease in its weight, possibly by a few percentage points from its December 2024 weight of 15.654% due to evolving spending habits ^{[^]}, ^{[^]}.

Weight adjustments are projected to slightly increase the overall CPI. The mathematical adjustment of these weights is projected to result in a "slightly higher" overall CPI reading compared to prior weightings ^{[^]}. This is primarily because categories that have recently experienced higher inflation, such as Housing, are gaining increased weight, while categories with relatively lower inflation or disinflation, like Transportation, see their weights reduced. This re-weighting structure will mathematically contribute to a higher overall CPI compared to what would have been observed under the previous scheme ^{[^]}.

Catalyst analysis unavailable.