Elon Musk net worth on April 30 (Bloomberg)
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- SpaceX valuation reached $800 billion by December 2025.
- Discussions explored a $1.75-2 trillion SpaceX IPO valuation.
- SpaceX's revaluation provides strong positive impetus to net worth.
- Tesla robotaxi deployment delays negatively impact Musk's net worth.
- X secured a $32 billion valuation in its latest funding round.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $670 billion | 15.0% | 24.7% | SpaceX's significant revaluation and potential IPO strongly boost Elon Musk's net worth. |
| Above $600 billion | 99.0% | 99.3% | SpaceX's significant revaluation and potential IPO strongly boost Elon Musk's net worth. |
| Above $700 billion | 9.0% | 11.4% | SpaceX's significant revaluation and potential IPO strongly boost Elon Musk's net worth. |
| Above $620 billion | 98.0% | 98.5% | SpaceX's significant revaluation and potential IPO strongly boost Elon Musk's net worth. |
| Above $660 billion | 14.0% | 24.7% | SpaceX's significant revaluation and potential IPO strongly boost Elon Musk's net worth. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above $640 billion
📈 April 21, 2026: 41.0pp spike
Price increased from 57.0% to 98.0%
📈 April 15, 2026: 17.0pp spike
Price increased from 43.0% to 60.0%
Outcome: Above $620 billion
📈 April 20, 2026: 26.0pp spike
Price increased from 72.0% to 98.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk's net worth is reported as above $650 billion in the Bloomberg Billionaires Index update for April 30, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to No. The market opened on March 31, 2026, 5:00 PM EDT, and will close and expire early if the economic data is released, or by April 30, 2026, 5:25 PM EDT at the latest. Projected payout occurs 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $600 billion | $1.00 | $0.05 | 99% |
| Above $620 billion | $0.98 | $0.62 | 98% |
| Above $630 billion | $0.98 | $0.56 | 98% |
| Above $640 billion | $0.97 | $0.86 | 98% |
| Above $650 billion | $0.75 | $0.54 | 75% |
| Above $680 billion | $0.76 | $0.99 | 20% |
| Above $690 billion | $0.47 | $0.98 | 19% |
| Above $670 billion | $0.16 | $0.85 | 15% |
| Above $660 billion | $0.16 | $0.86 | 14% |
| Above $700 billion | $0.09 | $0.98 | 9% |
| Above $610 billion | $0.98 | $0.32 | 98% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What was SpaceX's valuation and Starlink's ARR multiple prior to Q1 2026?
| SpaceX Implied Valuation | $800 billion (prior to Q1 2026) [^], [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO Plans | Confirmed for 2026 [^], [^] |
| Starlink ARR Multiple (Private Round) | Not specified for this funding round [^], [^], [^], [^], [^] |
6. Did Tesla Launch Level 4/5 Robotaxis in 5 Cities by Q4 2025?
| Nevada DMV Approval | All-Clear" for robotaxi by November 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| San Francisco Bay Area Service | Service brought to area by July 2025 [^] |
| Robotaxi Launch Pushback | Reported in April 2026 for five US cities [^] |
7. How Many TSLA Shares Did Elon Musk Pledge for Loans?
| Pledged TSLA Shares | 278,393,314 shares (as of April 2023 proxy statement) [^] |
|---|---|
| Collateral Maintenance Ratio | No less than four to one (4:1) of the total principal loan amount [^] |
| Source Proxy Statement Date | April 28, 2023 [^] |
8. What Was X's Valuation in its Latest Funding Round?
| New Equity Financing | Close to $1 billion (March 2025) [^] |
|---|---|
| Company Valuation | $32 billion (March 2025) [^] |
| Performance Ratchets for Musk's Equity | Not detailed in available information [^] |
9. What is SpaceX's 409A Valuation After Starship Full Launch?
| Starship Full Orbital Launch & Recovery Status | Has not yet occurred [^] |
|---|---|
| SpaceX Overall Valuation | Exceeds $350 billion [^] |
| 409A Valuation Purpose | Internal assessment for stock option grants [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 07, 2026
- Closes: April 30, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 5 markets in this series
Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXMUSKNW-26MAR31-T700: NO (Mar 31, 2026)
- KXMUSKNW-26MAR31-T680: NO (Mar 31, 2026)
- KXMUSKNW-26MAR31-T660: NO (Mar 31, 2026)
- KXMUSKNW-26MAR31-T640: YES (Mar 31, 2026)
- KXMUSKNW-26MAR31-T620: YES (Mar 31, 2026)
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.