Cut 25bps
Market Model 3.0% 2.1%
Fed maintains rate
Market Model 96.0% 93.9%
Fed Markets
Active Markets (13)
0
Market Model 57.0% 43.3%
4
Market Model 6.0% 17.8%
Exactly 0
Market Model 30.0% 35.4%
Exactly 1
Market Model 32.2% 33.0%
Yes
Market Model 14.5% 9.5%
Above 3.75%
Market Model 2.0% 1.6%
Above 3.50%
Market Model 97.0% 95.3%
Above 3.50%
Market Model 83.0% 68.9%
Above 3.75%
Market Model 23.0% 13.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 20.0% 20.1%
Before July 2026
Market Model 2.0% 2.2%
Yes
Market Model 49.2% 48.0%
Above 3.50%
Market Model 42.0% 21.8%
Above 3.25%
Market Model 54.0% 30.5%
Hike >25bps
Market Model 4.0% 4.7%
Cut 25bps
Market Model 16.0% 12.3%
0 cuts
Market Model 90.1% 80.9%
1 cuts
Market Model 8.2% 11.1%
Exactly 0 cuts
Market Model 54.1% 11.0%
Exactly 2 cuts
Market Model 12.0% 21.5%
Yes
Market Model 27.0% 18.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decision in Jun 2026? Top outcome: Cut 25bps | 3.0% | 2.1% | High | $7,563,100.63 | Refresh |
| How many dissenting votes at the next Fed meeting? Top outcome: 0 | 57.0% | 43.3% | High | $27,545.36 | Refresh |
| Number of Fed rate changes before 2027 Top outcome: Exactly 0 | 30.0% | 35.4% | High | $19,243.24 | Refresh |
| Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year? Yes refers to: In 2026 | 14.5% | 9.5% | Med | $264,158 | Refresh |
| Fed funds rate after Jun 2026 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.75% | 2.0% | 1.6% | High | $266,346.59 | Refresh |
| Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.50% | 83.0% | 68.9% | High | $34,252.65 | Refresh |
| Next Fed rate hike? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 20.0% | 20.1% | Med | $610,251.31 | Refresh |
| Fed rate cut before 2027? Yes refers to: Cuts | 49.2% | 48.0% | Med | $104,789.29 | Refresh |
| Fed funds rate after Apr 2027 meeting? Top outcome: Above 3.50% | 42.0% | 21.8% | Med | $65,263.43 | Refresh |
| Fed decision in Sep 2027? Top outcome: Hike >25bps | 4.0% | 4.7% | High | $936 | Refresh |
| Number of emergency rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: 0 cuts | 90.1% | 80.9% | Med | $67,451 | Refresh |
| Number of rate cuts in 2026? Top outcome: Exactly 0 cuts | 54.1% | 11.0% | Med | $1,258,867 | Refresh |
| Will the Fed have an emergency meeting in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 27.0% | 18.5% | Med | $72,743 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (4)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $85,276.58 | ||
| — | — | Med | $201,833 | ||
| — | — | High | $11,022,727 | ||
| — | — | Med | $226,656 |
