How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the price of fertilizer to get above $550 this year, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- World Bank and Rabobank consistently forecast significant price increases for 2026.
- Geopolitical disruptions and low inventories drive expected high fertilizer prices.
- Strait of Hormuz closure or China export policies may impact supply chains.
- Natural gas prices likely significantly influence US fertilizer production costs.
- CME Futures settlements offer timely data for tracking US urea prices.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $1200 | 5.0% | 10.0% | The World Bank and Rabobank forecast significant price increases due to geopolitical disruptions and low inventories. |
| Above $1000 | 78.0% | 83.8% | The World Bank and Rabobank forecast significant price increases due to geopolitical disruptions and low inventories. |
| Above $1100 | 25.0% | 36.3% | The World Bank and Rabobank forecast significant price increases due to geopolitical disruptions and low inventories. |
| Above $1300 | 34.0% | 7.0% | The World Bank and Rabobank forecast significant price increases due to geopolitical disruptions and low inventories. |
| Above $1500 | 31.0% | 4.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
Current Context
Fertilizer prices are set to significantly increase in 2026 due to various global factors. The World Bank forecasts an overall 31% rise in fertilizer prices for the year, with urea experiencing a 60% surge, influenced by a projected 24% increase in energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict [^][^]. Early 2026 already saw urea prices jump from $500 to over $650 per ton, with March alone recording a monthly increase between 26% and 46% [^][^][^].
Supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions are major drivers of these price hikes. A blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is impacting one-third of global fertilizer trade, and China has temporarily halted urea exports until August 2026, further tightening supply [^][^][^]. Rabobank indicates that while poor affordability might pressure demand, prices are expected to remain elevated throughout the second half of 2026 [^][^]. Farmdoc scenarios suggest that urea could peak between $782 per ton in a quick reopening scenario and $996 per ton if an extended conflict persists in 2026 [^].
High prices carry substantial risks for global food security, according to various analyses. A prediction market indicates a 75% probability that the average U.S. urea price will exceed $1000 per ton by the end of 2026 [^]. Sustained high fertilizer costs could lead to a 10-15% drop in global grain yields and push an additional 45 million people into food insecurity [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market shows a general downward trend, with the probability of fertilizer prices reaching the specified high mark declining from a starting point of 87.0% to a current price of 78.0%. The market has traded within a 20-point range, between 70.0% and 90.0%. This period has been marked by significant volatility, including two sharp drops in late April. The first was an 11.0 percentage point drop on April 26. This was followed by another 11.0 percentage point decline on April 30, which appears to be a reaction to the U.S. government's announcement of initiatives to increase domestic fertilizer production. This bearish sentiment was counteracted by a 10.0 percentage point spike on May 05, reportedly driven by an article analyzing the impact of the Iran conflict on fertilizer costs, which aligned with broader World Bank forecasts of price surges.
The market has established key price levels, with 90.0% acting as a point of resistance in late April before the subsequent declines. The mid-70s, specifically 75.0%, appears to have served as a support level, from which the price rebounded in early May. The total trading volume of 5,209 contracts indicates active participation and a reasonable degree of conviction among traders throughout the market's history. Overall, the price action suggests that market sentiment remains confident that a significant price hike will occur, as indicated by the current 78.0% probability. However, the downward trend from the market's opening and its sharp reactions to news events show that traders are weighing bullish factors like geopolitical tension and energy costs against bearish factors like potential increases in domestic supply.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above $1100
📈 May 07, 2026: 30.0pp spike
Price increased from 62.0% to 92.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the fertilizer price prediction market spike on May 07, 2026, appears to be escalating geopolitical conflicts involving Iran and their impact on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz [^][^]. These disruptions caused significant supply chain issues, contributing to an approximately 30% increase in anhydrous ammonia prices since late February 2026, with Illinois prices already reported at $1,123 per ton by April 17, 2026 [^][^][^]. The provided information contains no evidence of social media activity influencing this price movement. Social media was irrelevant.
📉 May 01, 2026: 21.0pp drop
Price decreased from 72.0% to 51.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not identify a primary driver for the 21.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market outcome "Above $1100" on May 01, 2026. All available information points to upward pressure on fertilizer prices. For instance, the World Bank forecast on April 28, 2026, predicted a 31% rise in fertilizer prices for 2026, including a 60% surge for urea [^], while a May 01, 2026, analysis attributed recent spikes to the Iran conflict, noting anhydrous ammonia reached $1,123/ton by April 17, 2026 [^]. No social media activity was identified in the provided sources. Based on the given information, social media was irrelevant, and the primary driver for this specific price drop remains unidentifiable.
Outcome: Above $1200
📈 May 06, 2026: 15.0pp spike
Price increased from 35.0% to 50.0%
What happened: No social media activity was identified as a driver for this price movement. The primary driver appears to be the publication of the "Fertilizer Cost Increases Resulting from the Iran Conflict" report by farmdoc daily, dated May 05, 2026 [^]. This traditional news source reported current anhydrous ammonia prices at $1,123/ton as of May 1, 2026, nearing the $1200 threshold, and attributed cost increases to the Iran conflict (which started February 2026) and its impact on the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global fertilizer trade [^][^]. This analysis directly coinciding with the market spike provided a clear fundamental rationale for the "Above $1200" outcome. Therefore, traditional news, specifically expert analysis linking geopolitical events to immediate market prices, was the primary driver.
Outcome: Above $1000
📈 May 05, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 79.0% to 89.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 10.0 percentage point spike on May 05, 2026, appears to be the timely release of traditional news and analysis. A farmdoc daily article, published on May 05, 2026, discussed "Fertilizer Cost Increases Resulting from the Iran Conflict," linking geopolitical tensions and potential crude oil price increases to rising fertilizer costs [^]. This announcement coincided with anhydrous ammonia already trading above $1,100 per metric ton in mid-April [^][^][^] and a reported World Bank projection forecasting a 31% rise in global fertilizer prices for 2026, citing Middle East disruption [^]. Based on the provided information, social media activity was irrelevant as no related posts or viral narratives were identified.
📉 April 30, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 86.0% to 75.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 11.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market on April 30, 2026, was the U.S. government's announcement in late April 2026 of initiatives to increase domestic fertilizer production [^]. This official policy aimed to counter rising costs and supply chain disruptions, thus decreasing the market's expectation of prices staying above $1000 [^]. While an early May 2026 announcement regarding safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz also reportedly lowered urea prices, the U.S. initiative's timing directly coincided with the market movement [^][^]. Social media was irrelevant, as no related activity from key figures or viral narratives was present in the available information.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the average price of Urea (46-0-0) fertilizer, as reported by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Illinois Production Cost Reports, exceeds $1000 per ton after the contract's issuance and before January 1, 2027; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on March 20, 2026, and will close early if the price condition is met, or by December 31, 2026, at 11:59pm EST, with projected payouts 30 minutes after closing. Insider trading by employees of the source agencies or individuals with material, non-public information is prohibited.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $1000 | $0.79 | $0.82 | 78% |
| Above $1300 | $0.74 | $0.98 | 34% |
| Above $1500 | $0.94 | $0.98 | 31% |
| Above $1600 | $0.98 | $0.80 | 27% |
| Above $1400 | $0.98 | $0.98 | 26% |
| Above $1100 | $0.92 | $0.78 | 25% |
| Above $1200 | $0.43 | $0.95 | 5% |
Market Discussion
Despite some initial projections for a modest decline, fertilizer prices surged in 2025 and continued to increase, with sharp rises observed in early 2026 due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This upward trend is further fueled by supply disruptions, such as China's potential halt of urea exports until August 2026, high input costs, and strained logistics [^][^][^][^]. Consequently, prices are expected to remain high and volatile throughout 2026, pressuring farm profitability and increasing the risk of global food inflation [^][^][^][^].
5. What potential escalations in the Strait of Hormuz or changes to China's export policies could most significantly impact fertilizer supply chains before year-end 2026?
| Strait of Hormuz closure | February 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Urea price surge post-closure | 30-60% [^] |
| China's potential supply removal | 40 million metric tons [^][^][^][^] |
The Strait of Hormuz closure severely impacts global fertilizer supply chains. This critical maritime chokepoint, through which approximately one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade passes, has been closed since February 2026 [^]. The closure has resulted in a significant 30-60% surge in urea prices and left millions of tons of fertilizer stranded [^]. The Persian Gulf, which relies on the Strait, accounts for 40% of global traded urea exports and 44% of seaborne sulfur used in phosphate production [^][^]. Price projections for 2026 indicate that urea prices, which were $470 per short ton pre-crisis, could reach $636/st in a quick reopening scenario, $733-784/st under a contested disruption, and $989-1000/st if the disruption is extended [^][^].
Prolonged disruptions risk significant global grain yield drops and food insecurity. Such extended disruptions could lead to a 10-15% reduction in global grain yields and potentially push an additional 45 million people into food insecurity by the end of 2026 [^]. Fertilizer prices are anticipated to be 15-46% higher in the first half of 2026, with elevated prices expected to persist even after the immediate resolution of the crisis [^][^].
China's export bans further exacerbate global fertilizer supply pressures. Concurrently with the Strait of Hormuz situation, China implemented extensive export bans and restrictions on urea, phosphates, and NPK fertilizers in March 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Should these restrictions be extended beyond August, up to 40 million metric tons of fertilizer supply could be removed from the international market, intensifying existing supply chain challenges [^][^][^][^].
6. What underlying data on farm economics and global inventories validates the high-price forecasts for H2 2026 from the World Bank and Rabobank?
| World Bank 2026 Fertilizer Price Increase | 31% in 2026 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Rabobank Affordability Index | Lowest in 18 years [^][^] |
| Asian Urea Inventories | 3-12 weeks of supply [^][^] |
Global conflict and low inventories drive high fertilizer price forecasts. High fertilizer price forecasts for the second half of 2026 are validated by anticipated supply disruptions and historically low global inventories. The World Bank projects fertilizer prices to increase by 31% in 2026, with urea prices specifically rising by 60%, primarily due to the Middle East conflict, which is also expected to raise energy prices by 24% [^][^]. Rabobank anticipates that prices will remain elevated through the second half of 2026 and into 2027, noting that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could remove 0.8 million metric tons of fertilizers per month from the market [^][^]. This situation is compounded by global urea inventories reaching historic lows, with Asian stocks holding only 3-12 weeks of supply and facing shortages during planting [^][^].
Farmer affordability challenges threaten fertilizer demand despite high prices. Despite the projected high prices, farmers face significant affordability challenges that could suppress demand. The Rabobank Affordability Index currently stands at its lowest point in 18 years, and a negative 12-month average suggests a potential drop in demand for 2026 [^][^]. Furthermore, U.S. farm income is projected to decrease by 0.7% to $153.4 billion in 2026, as grain producers contend with tight margins due to elevated input costs [^][^].
7. How do the Farmdoc Daily price scenarios for 2026 differ from the World Bank's outlook based on their core assumptions about conflict duration and supply disruptions?
| Urea Peak (Quick Reopening) | ~$782/short ton in June 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Urea Peak (Extended Conflict) | ~$996/short ton in October 2026 [^] |
| World Bank Urea Price Increase | 60% in 2026 [^][^] |
Farmdoc Daily details urea price peaks based on Strait of Hormuz disruption. Their 2026 price scenarios for urea are specifically differentiated by the duration of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which dictates the timing and magnitude of price peaks. The "Quick Reopening" scenario anticipates urea prices reaching approximately $782/short ton in June 2026. Under the "Contested Transit" scenario, prices are projected to peak around $784/short ton in July 2026, with prices remaining above $700/short ton through November. The "Extended Conflict" scenario forecasts a later and higher peak, reaching about $996/short ton in October 2026, implying continued market tightness into the fall booking window [^].
The World Bank projects significant overall fertilizer price increases for 2026. Conversely, the World Bank's April 2026 outlook forecasts a more general increase in fertilizer prices, attributing these rises to broader Middle East conflict impacts. This outlook projects overall fertilizer prices to be up 31% in 2026, with urea prices specifically increasing by 60% [^][^]. The World Bank's core assumptions about conflict duration encompass the persistence of the energy-to-food transmission shock, alongside maritime and production constraints, all contributing to these elevated average price levels for 2026. They also indicate that fertilizer price pressure would intensify under prolonged periods of significant shipping constraints and a slow recovery of the energy system [^].
8. Which specific USDA and CME Group reports provide the most timely data for tracking the US urea prices relevant to this market's 2026 resolution?
| CME Urea FOB US Gulf Futures settlement time | 14:30 CT market data [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| USDA AMS Fertilizer Market Reports frequency | weekly or bi-weekly [^] |
| USDA AMS Iowa Production Cost Report example | $520-$728/ton avg $624 as of April 3, 2026 [^][^] |
CME Futures settlements offer the most timely daily US urea data. The CME Urea FOB US Gulf Futures settlements are the most timely source for daily US urea price data relevant to the 2026 prediction market resolution. These settlements are determined daily, utilizing market data from 14:30 CT. Their value is derived from a monthly average of daily midpoints, specifically from ICIS Granular Barges Spot FOB USG 0-30 Days and Profercy U.S. Gulf $/ton fob 30 days [^][^][^]. This daily frequency makes CME settlements a primary resource for tracking urea prices [^][^].
USDA AMS reports offer essential weekly and bi-weekly urea price insights. Additional pertinent reports are provided by the USDA AMS for broader market tracking. The USDA AMS Fertilizer Market Reports, such as ams_3657.pdf, offer weekly or bi-weekly FOB urea prices, covering both national and regional observations, as seen in May 2026 [^]. These USDA AMS weekly FOB averages are particularly prioritized for monitoring domestic retail prices for the 2026 resolution [^][^][^]. Furthermore, the USDA AMS Iowa Production Cost Report (ams_2863.pdf) contributes bi-weekly urea ask prices, an example being a range of $520-$728/ton with an average of $624 as of April 3, 2026 [^][^].
9. How are projected 2026 natural gas prices from the EIA and CME Group expected to influence US fertilizer production costs and final market prices?
| Variable Cost of Ammonia/Urea Production | 70-90% from natural gas [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Projected 2026 Henry Hub Natural Gas Price | $3.67/MMBtu (EIA average) [^][^][^] |
| US Urea Retail Price (March-April 2026) | $650-$823/ton [^][^] |
Natural gas prices significantly impact US fertilizer production costs. Natural gas accounts for 70-90% of the variable costs for US ammonia and urea production [^][^]. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects the Henry Hub average natural gas price for 2026 to be $3.67/MMBtu, representing a 4% increase from the 2025 price of $3.53 [^][^][^]. Separately, CME Group Henry Hub Natural Gas December 2026 futures settled at $4.367/MMBtu on April 6, 2026 [^].
Global disruptions are driving US fertilizer market prices. Despite domestic natural gas price projections, global disruptions in regions such as Hormuz and the Middle East are reported as key drivers for US fertilizer prices [^][^][^]. These global factors have led to substantial increases in retail urea prices, with US urea retail prices ranging from $650-$823/ton in March and April 2026, indicating an increase of 30-42% [^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Shipping constraints, particularly those tied to the Strait of Hormuz, are repeatedly identified as a core transmission mechanism for price elevation [^] . Approximately one-third of global fertilizer trade transits the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions in this region could raise fertilizer, transport, and production costs [^].
Rabobank expects the fertilizer affordability index to remain constrained throughout 2026, with only limited recovery anticipated in the second half, implying continued price risk rather than a rapid normalization [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The World Bank projects fertilizer prices to increase by 31% in 2026, driven by an approximately 60% jump in urea prices [^] .
- Trigger: Recent levels show urea retail averaged $858/ton for the week of April 13–17, 2026, and the global benchmark urea was reported around $857/ton as of May 6, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Shipping constraints, particularly those tied to the Strait of Hormuz, are repeatedly identified as a core transmission mechanism for price elevation [^] .
- Trigger: Approximately one-third of global fertilizer trade transits the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions in this region could raise fertilizer, transport, and production costs [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 8 markets in this series
Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXFERT-26-900: YES (Apr 17, 2026)
- KXFERT-26-800: YES (Mar 20, 2026)
- KXFERT-26-700: YES (Mar 20, 2026)
- KXFERT-26-650: YES (Mar 20, 2026)
- KXFERT-26-625: YES (Mar 20, 2026)
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