How high will gas prices in New York get this year?

Maritime insurance underwriters significantly increased war risk premiums for Strait of Hormuz transits. Driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, underwriters, notably within the Lloyd's of London market, raised premiums throughout 2026 ^{[^]}. In early March 2026, war risk coverage surged from an approximate 0.05% of a vessel's hull value to as high as 0.25% for a typical seven-day transit ^{[^]}. For a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) valued at $100 million, this increase translated to a single transit premium rising from about $50,000 to approximately $250,000 ^{[^]}. Heightened underwriter concerns were already evident when the Lloyd's Market Association Joint War Committee (JWC) classified the Gulf as a high-risk area in February 2026 ^{[^]}.

War risk premiums further escalated for Q2-Q3 sailings, indicating a deepening crisis. For Q2 2026 sailings, and likely extending into Q3, premiums have remained elevated and experienced further increases. As of mid-April 2026, war risk premiums for a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) averaged between $500,000 and $1 million per voyage through the Strait of Hormuz ^{[^]}. This represents a considerable escalation compared to the initial surge earlier in the year, which pushed premiums for a $100 million VLCC to approximately $250,000 for a seven-day transit ^{[^]}. The sustained and higher average premiums for Q2-Q3 reflect a persistent and potentially intensified risk assessment by the insurance market, as underwriters grapple with the unpredictable nature and duration of the ongoing crisis when setting rates ^{[^]}.

PADD 1 refineries anticipate extensive maintenance work in 2026. U.S. refineries, including those supplying PADD 1, are preparing for "some of the most extensive turnaround work in years" in 2026 ^{[^]}. As of January 2024, PADD 1 comprises eight operable petroleum refineries with a total capacity of 780,500 barrels per calendar day ^{[^]}. PBF Energy, a significant operator in PADD 1 with facilities like the Delaware City refinery, has indicated plans for turnaround work at most of its sites during 2026; however, specific dates within the May-August peak demand period are not publicly detailed ^{[^]}.

Specific PADD 1 maintenance details for May-August 2026 remain largely undisclosed. While the broad outlook for 2026 suggests extensive maintenance, explicit scheduled or unscheduled maintenance details for PADD 1 refineries during the May-August 2026 period are not available in the provided research. Historical data for Phillips 66's Bayway refinery illustrates potential events, such as an "ongoing" planned turnaround in 2025 ^{[^]} and an unscheduled reduction in gasoline unit rates in August 2025 due to a fire ^{[^]}. However, these examples relate to 2025 and do not offer comprehensive, specific plans for 2026.

The anticipated maintenance scope for 2026 is above the 5-year average. The qualitative assessment of the anticipated scope for 2026 suggests significant capacity outages compared to previous years ^{[^]}. This extensive maintenance follows a period of high utilization, with U.S. refinery utilization nearing multi-year seasonal highs in February 2026, indicating a potential drive for long-term operational integrity after intense usage ^{[^]}. Such a maintenance surge could notably impact PADD 1 refinery utilization, which typically experiences fluctuations ^{[^]}.

Managed money net long positions are significantly elevated in RBOB gasoline futures. As of April 9, 2024, managed money in NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures held an aggregate net long position of 56,536 contracts ^{[^]}. This current positioning stands at 90% of its 52-week range, indicating it is near the top observed over the past year ^{[^]}. For comparison, the 52-week average net position for managed money is 32,596 contracts, suggesting an elevated level of bullish sentiment among participants compared to recent historical averages ^{[^]}.

Current net long positions are elevated but below historical peak levels. While the current net long position is robust and elevated within its past year's range, it has not yet reached the absolute historical extremes that have sometimes preceded more significant price corrections ^{[^]}. For instance, managed money net long positions peaked at over 100,000 contracts in early 2022 ^{[^]}. Although periods of heightened managed money long positioning have historically been followed by price softening or corrections, the current level of 56,536 contracts is not at those all-time peaks ^{[^]}. Nonetheless, being at 90% of its 52-week range signifies a highly extended long position within the recent trading environment, which could imply increased vulnerability to market shifts ^{[^]}.

D6 RIN prices are approximately $0.75 as EPA finalizes new standards. As of early April 2026, the market price for D6 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits stands at approximately $0.75 to $0.755 per RIN, with 2026 vintage contracts specifically reported around $0.75 to $0.7540 ^{[^]}. Concurrently, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has finalized its Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS) for 2026 and 2027, establishing total renewable fuel volumes at 22.33 billion gallons annually for both years ^{[^]}.

EPA acknowledges challenges, as refiners anticipate record-breaking compliance costs. Despite finalized standards, the EPA has recognized that increasing advanced biofuel volumes will create compliance challenges and could lead to price increases ^{[^]}. Refiners and industry groups are projecting significantly higher RFS compliance costs for 2026. For example, CVR Energy's CEO expects 2026 compliance costs to "increase substantially" and "break all historical records" ^{[^]}. Valero reported $1.4 billion in RFS compliance expenses for 2025 and foresees the program remaining a significant cost factor in 2026 ^{[^]}. Similarly, the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) predicts record-breaking costs that will ultimately be transferred to consumers ^{[^]}.

East Coast gasoline inventory days of supply remain stable. East Coast (PADD 1) gasoline inventory levels, measured in 'days of supply,' have recently shown stability, consistently hovering between 29 and 31 days. As of the latest available data on May 31, 2024, the region held 30.6 days of total gasoline supply ^{[^]}. Throughout May 2024, these levels fluctuated within a narrow range, specifically from 29.3 days to 31.0 days, indicating a stable trend rather than a significant upward or downward movement ^{[^]}. This 'days of supply' metric is calculated by dividing total inventories by the average daily product supplied over the preceding five weeks ^{[^]}.

No specific inventory threshold triggers significant NY Harbor price increases. While low inventory levels are generally understood to contribute to market volatility and potential price increases, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) sources do not identify a specific 'days of supply' threshold that historically triggers significant price hikes in the NY Harbor spot market ^{[^]}. EIA data focuses primarily on reporting stock levels, supply, and demand metrics, and typically does not provide explicit predictive thresholds for market price triggers.

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