US gas prices this week
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that US gas prices will be Above 4.340 this week, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Elevated crude oil prices drive significant increases in gasoline costs.
- Refinery issues are contributing to continued upward pressure on gas prices.
- EIA data indicates a tightening trend in commercial crude oil supply.
- National average gasoline prices recently surged $0.27 week-over-week.
- Oil prices above $100/barrel, Strait of Hormuz risks, inflate costs.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.460 | 98.0% | 98.5% | Elevated crude oil prices, refinery issues, and strong market sentiment suggest continued upward pressure on gas prices. |
| Above 4.480 | 96.0% | 96.9% | Elevated crude oil prices, refinery issues, and strong market sentiment suggest continued upward pressure on gas prices. |
| Above 4.420 | 99.0% | 99.2% | Elevated crude oil prices, refinery issues, and strong market sentiment suggest continued upward pressure on gas prices. |
| Above 4.620 | 51.0% | 56.1% | Elevated crude oil prices, refinery issues, and strong market sentiment suggest continued upward pressure on gas prices. |
| Above 4.600 | 43.0% | 64.2% | Elevated crude oil prices, refinery issues, and strong market sentiment suggest continued upward pressure on gas prices. |
Current Context
US national average gas prices show slight variations in early May. As of May 4, 2026, AAA reported the national average for regular gasoline at $4.457 per gallon [^]. Another early-May report, citing GasBuddy data on May 2, 2026, indicated the national average was $4.43 per gallon [^]. Furthermore, AAA's national average for early May 2026 was also noted as approximately $4.39 per gallon as of a Friday during that period [^].
Future forecasts suggest a decline in gas prices for 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected in January 2026 that retail US gasoline prices would decrease by 6% in 2026 compared to 2025, with a subsequent 1% rise anticipated for 2027 [^]. This context is relevant for prediction markets, such as Kalshi's "Kxaaagasm 26may31," which will resolve "Yes" if the US average regular gas price strictly exceeds $4.90 per gallon on May 31, 2026, according to AAA data [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a stable, sideways trend within a very narrow and high-probability range of 93.0% to 99.0%. The market opened at 97.0% on May 4th and quickly moved to 99.0% on the same day, where it has remained. This price of 99.0% appears to be a firm resistance level that has now turned into a support ceiling, indicating extremely high confidence in a "YES" outcome. The lack of significant volatility suggests that traders entered the market with a strong consensus from the outset.
The price action is directly correlated with the provided news context. The market's likely resolution metric, inferred from its title (KXAAAGASW-26MAY11-4.340), is whether the US national average gas price will be above $4.340 on May 11, 2026. The initial price of 97.0% and the rapid move to 99.0% were driven by reports from early May showing the national average was already between $4.39 and $4.457 per gallon. Since these reported prices were comfortably above the $4.340 threshold, the market priced in a very high probability of a "YES" resolution.
The trading volume provides strong evidence of this market conviction. A significant portion of the total volume, over 563 contracts, was traded on the first day. The subsequent drop-off in volume, with later data points showing zero trades, indicates that an early consensus was reached and has not been challenged. Overall, the chart reflects a market with an overwhelmingly confident sentiment, viewing the "YES" outcome as a near certainty based on publicly available gas price data leading up to the resolution date.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the average regular gas price for the United States is strictly greater than $4.620 on May 11, 2026, as verified by AAA; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on May 4, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT, closes on May 10, 2026, at 11:59 PM EDT, with a projected payout on May 11, 2026, at 10:05 AM EDT.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.340 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 4.360 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 4.380 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 4.400 | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| Above 4.420 | $1.00 | $0.02 | 99% |
| Above 4.440 | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| Above 4.460 | $0.98 | $0.03 | 98% |
| Above 4.480 | $0.96 | $0.05 | 96% |
| Above 4.500 | $0.91 | $0.10 | 90% |
| Above 4.520 | $0.87 | $0.14 | 85% |
| Above 4.540 | $0.79 | $0.24 | 79% |
| Above 4.560 | $0.75 | $0.26 | 75% |
| Above 4.580 | $0.69 | $0.37 | 64% |
| Above 4.620 | $0.51 | $0.50 | 51% |
| Above 4.640 | $0.45 | $0.58 | 45% |
| Above 4.600 | $0.61 | $0.55 | 43% |
| Above 4.660 | $0.42 | $0.59 | 42% |
Market Discussion
US national regular gasoline prices have seen a significant weekly surge, reaching $4.446 by May 3, 2026, the highest level since July 2022 after increasing over $0.30 in one week [^]. This rise is attributed to crude oil strength and uncertainty regarding the Strait of Hormuz reopening; continued closure, combined with low inventories, could drive prices higher until demand contracts [^]. Related prediction markets show strong confidence that gas prices will reach $4.45 by the end of May [^].
4. What potential supply-side shocks, from OPEC+ policy or US refinery operations, could significantly alter gas prices before the summer 2026 driving season?
| OPEC+ May 2026 production increase | +206k bpd [^][^] |
|---|---|
| US refinery unplanned outages (April 2026) | 150k bpd [^] |
| California gasoline supply by May | 9-10 days [^][^] |
OPEC+ plans to increase crude supply, but market conditions could alter policy. The alliance has signaled a planned increase in global crude supply, adding +206,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May 2026 and an additional +188,000 bpd for June 2026 [^][^]. However, OPEC+ retains the flexibility to reverse these adjustments should market conditions necessitate a change in their production strategy [^][^].
US refinery outages and planned maintenance threaten gasoline supply. Before the summer 2026 driving season, US refinery capacity faces ongoing disruptions that could significantly alter gas prices. April 2026 saw substantial unplanned outages of 150,000 bpd and planned outages totaling 670,000 bpd, contributing to gasoline prices nearing $4.18 per gallon on April 28 [^]. Looking ahead, Exxon Beaumont is scheduled for a coker overhaul from May to June 2026, affecting 60,000 bpd of capacity [^][^]. California faces potential gasoline shortages by May, with inventories at just 9-10 days supply, partly due to the Valero Benicia closure in April 2026 [^][^]. Furthermore, drought conditions in Corpus Christi, Texas, pose a threat of water shortages that could impact major refineries in the region [^].
Refinery restarts offer some relief amid ongoing supply challenges. On a more positive note for supply, Valero Port Arthur is restarting a large crude distillation unit (CDU) in early May after a prior explosion [^]. The facility projects its second-quarter utilization to be between 92% and 95% [^]. These various US refinery operational changes, combined with OPEC+ policy, present a complex outlook for gasoline prices leading into the summer driving season.
5. How does the EIA's January 2026 forecast for lower annual gasoline prices compare to the pricing implied by NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures for spring 2026 delivery?
| EIA Q2 2026 Retail Gasoline Forecast | $3.02 per gallon (January 2026 forecast) [^] |
|---|---|
| NYMEX RBOB May 2026 Futures | $3.73 per gallon (approximate) [^] |
| National Average Regular Fuel | $4.46 per gallon (May 4, 2026) [^] |
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in January 2026 forecast significantly lower gasoline prices for 2026, citing decreased crude oil costs. Specifically, the EIA projected an average retail gasoline price of $3.02 per gallon for the second quarter of 2026 [^]. Their Short-Term Energy Outlook also anticipated an annual average retail gasoline price of $2.92 per gallon for 2026, which would mark an 18 cents per gallon decrease from 2025. This projection was primarily attributed to an expected decline in Brent crude oil prices, forecasted to average $56 per barrel in 2026 [^].
Futures market prices for spring 2026 delivery significantly exceed the EIA's forecast. NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures for spring 2026 delivery were notably higher than the EIA's projections. The May 2026 contract was trading at approximately $3.73 per gallon, while the June 2026 contract was around $3.58 to $3.59 per gallon [^]. This divergence between the EIA's forecast and the futures market pricing could be influenced by evolving market dynamics since the January forecast, including current crude oil prices and geopolitical events [^].
Recent market observations and predictions indicate significantly higher gasoline prices. As of May 4, 2026, the national average for regular fuel had climbed to $4.46 per gallon [^]. Furthermore, prediction markets suggest a 50% chance that average regular gas prices for the U.S. will be strictly greater than $4.600 on May 11, 2026 [^]. Other forecasts suggest a 95% probability of prices exceeding $4.60 and a 78% probability of exceeding $4.80 during 2026 [^].
6. What has been the typical spread and volatility between AAA's and GasBuddy's reported national average gas prices throughout Q1 2026?
| AAA Mar 5, 2026 National Average | $3.251 per gallon [^] |
|---|---|
| GasBuddy Mar 5, 2026 National Average | $3.246 per gallon [^][^] |
| AAA Mar 26, 2026 National Average | $3.981 per gallon [^] |
Comprehensive Q1 2026 gas price spread and volatility cannot be determined. The typical spread and overall volatility between AAA and GasBuddy national average gasoline prices for Q1 2026 cannot be determined with high confidence. This is primarily because available research sources do not provide a complete week-by-week series of national average figures from both AAA and GasBuddy in a consistent format for the entire quarter [^][^].
Specific Q1 2026 gas price figures are available. While a full-quarter volatility calculation is not possible, some specific national average gas price figures for Q1 2026 have been reported. On March 5, 2026, AAA reported a national average of $3.251 per gallon [^], closely followed by GasBuddy's figure of $3.246 per gallon on the same day [^][^]. Later in the quarter, on March 26, 2026, AAA's national average reached $3.981 per gallon [^]. GasBuddy reported its national average at $3.95 per gallon on March 30, 2026 [^].
7. What do weekly crude oil inventory reports from the EIA and API indicate about supply trends in the weeks leading up to May 11, 2026?
| EIA Commercial Crude Inventory (Apr 17, 2026) | 465.7 million barrels [^][^] |
|---|---|
| EIA Commercial Crude Inventory (Apr 24, 2026) | 459.5 million barrels [^][^] |
| EIA Refinery Crude Oil Input (Apr 24, 2026) | 16.1 million b/d [^] |
EIA data indicates a tightening crude oil supply trend. Commercial crude oil inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, stood at 465.7 million barrels for the week ending April 17, 2026. This figure decreased by 6.2 million barrels to 459.5 million barrels by the week ending April 24, 2026. Despite this decline, inventories remained approximately 1% above the five-year average for that time of year, signaling a tightening supply scenario leading into early May 2026 [^][^].
Increased refinery activity contributed to the crude oil inventory draw. Consistent with the reduction in crude stocks, the EIA's highlight release for April 24, 2026, reported that crude oil input to refineries averaged 16.1 million barrels per day for the week. This suggests a stronger demand for crude from refiners during that period [^].
Recent API crude stock changes were unavailable for precise analysis. While API-linked sources provided examples of weekly crude stock changes for earlier periods, such as a 10.263 million barrel increase for the week ending March 27, 2026, specific API figures for the weeks immediately preceding May 11, 2026, were not available. Therefore, the direction of the supply trend from API for that exact window could not be confirmed [^][^].
8. What do recent price trends in high-cost states like California and low-cost states like Texas suggest about the trajectory of the AAA national average for May 2026?
| National Average Price (late March 2026) | Exceeded $4.00 per gallon [^] |
|---|---|
| California Average Price (May 4, 2026) | $6.114 per gallon for regular fuel [^][^] |
| Prediction for Later 2026 | 71% chance of prices exceeding $5.00 (Kalshi, May 4, 2026) [^] |
Gasoline prices have notably increased nationwide, driven by crude oil costs. Both California and Texas, along with the national average, have experienced notable increases in fuel costs over the past week and month [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Nationally, gas prices rose from approximately $4.059 to $4.111 a week prior, and from around $4.104 to $4.110 a month ago [^][^][^]. This surge pushed national gas prices above $4.00 per gallon in late March, a benchmark not seen since August 2022 [^]. As of May 4, 2026, California continues to report the nation's highest gasoline prices, averaging $6.114 per gallon for regular fuel, an increase from $5.949 a week earlier [^][^][^]. In contrast, Texas reported an average price of $3.925 per gallon for regular gasoline on the same date [^][^][^]. This consistent upward trend across diverse markets is primarily attributed to elevated crude oil prices, which have climbed above $100 per barrel amidst an unresolved conflict in the Middle East and concerns about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Future projections suggest a continued upward trajectory for national average fuel prices. These trends, stemming primarily from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over crude oil supply, indicate that the AAA national average will continue its upward trajectory [^][^][^][^][^][^]. A prediction market on May 4, 2026, indicated a 95% chance of prices exceeding $4.60, a 78% chance of exceeding $4.80, and a 71% chance of exceeding $5.00 later in 2026 [^]. Furthermore, a separate market for May 31, 2026, suggests a 36% probability that the national average will be strictly greater than $4.90 [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Recent reports from AAA show the national average regular gasoline price at $4.300 on April 30, 2026, a significant increase of $0.27 week-over-week, with prices cited as "going back up again" due to oil above $100/bbl and Strait of Hormuz risks [^] . This follows an earlier price of $4.031 in mid/late April [^]. The immediate future holds a key resolution for a Kalshi-style prediction market (Kxaaagasw-26may04), which will settle on May 4, 2026, based on whether the AAA US average regular price is strictly greater than $4.460 [^]. Other prediction markets, such as those on Coinbase and Robinhood, are tied to the AAA-reported average on May 31, 2026, marking the end-of-month weekly print as a critical settlement date for longer-term positions [^][^].
Beyond these immediate price points and prediction market resolutions, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides crucial data and forecasts that can act as significant catalysts. EIA's weekly retail gasoline estimates, which reflect Monday's pump levels, are published around 10:00 a.m. ET every Tuesday [^]. A major macroeconomic and forecast catalyst is the release of EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for May, scheduled for May 12, 2026 [^]. This outlook provides a baseline for gasoline price expectations, with EIA forecasting retail gasoline prices to average $3.70/gallon in 2026, and mentioning a higher April peak near $4.30/gallon on their STEO landing page [^][^]. This forecast could serve as a bearish anchor against any rally in prediction markets driven by crude oil prices or geopolitical events.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: May 11, 2026
- Expiration: May 18, 2026
- Closes: May 11, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Recent reports from AAA show the national average regular gasoline price at $4.300 on April 30, 2026, a significant increase of $0.27 week-over-week, with prices cited as "going back up again" due to oil above $100/bbl and Strait of Hormuz risks [^] .
- Trigger: This follows an earlier price of $4.031 in mid/late April [^] .
- Trigger: The immediate future holds a key resolution for a Kalshi-style prediction market (Kxaaagasw-26may04), which will settle on May 4, 2026, based on whether the AAA US average regular price is strictly greater than $4.460 [^] .
- Trigger: Other prediction markets, such as those on Coinbase and Robinhood, are tied to the AAA-reported average on May 31, 2026, marking the end-of-month weekly print as a critical settlement date for longer-term positions [^] [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXAAAGASW-26MAY04-4.470: NO (May 04, 2026)
- KXAAAGASW-26MAY04-4.450: YES (May 04, 2026)
- KXAAAGASW-26MAY04-4.640: NO (May 04, 2026)
- KXAAAGASW-26MAY04-4.620: NO (May 04, 2026)
- KXAAAGASW-26MAY04-4.600: NO (May 04, 2026)
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.
