TSA avg check-ins from Apr 27 to May 3, 2026?

Premier aviation analysts did not provide specific Q2 2026 domestic ASM growth projections. Research did not yield consolidated Q2 2026 domestic Available Seat Mile (ASM) growth projections from premier aviation analysts like Cirium or OAG for American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, and Southwest Airlines, specifically relative to their Q2 2024 actual domestic ASMs. While OAG and Cirium offer analyses of the U.S. domestic market and general capacity outlooks, they do not present these granular, carrier-specific Q2 2026 domestic ASM growth figures in the provided sources ^{[^]}. For example, Cirium noted strong U.S. domestic capacity trends, indicating that capacity surpassed 2019 levels in 2023 and anticipating continued robust demand, but it did not detail Q2 2026 projections at the individual airline and domestic ASM level ^{[^]}.

An analyst projected general industry-wide capacity growth for the full year 2026. This projection suggests a conservative industry-wide capacity growth of 2% to 3% for the full year 2026 ^{[^]}. The same projection indicates that Delta and United could potentially achieve closer to 5% capacity growth for that year ^{[^]}. However, these projections are not explicitly from Cirium or OAG, nor are they specifically defined as domestic ASM, nor are they broken down by quarter, such as Q2 2026, or compared directly to Q2 2024 actuals ^{[^]}. Other research sources generally focused on historical ASM data for the broader U.S. market or provided general national forecasts for total available seat miles, without breaking down the information by specific carriers, domestic-only focus, or by quarter from the requested analysts ^{[^]}.

Global business travel volume nears 2019 levels; North America forecast unspecified. According to recent outlook reports, global business travel trip volume is projected to reach approximately 96% of its 2019 pre-pandemic levels by 2026 ^{[^]}. These forecasts consistently offer a global perspective, but the available research does not specify a distinct percentage recovery for North America's business travel volume by Q2 2026.

Factors contributing to volume's slower recovery include costs, hybrid work, uncertainty. The trajectory for business travel volume recovery is notably slower than that of spending ^{[^]}. Several factors contribute to the projected 4% shortfall, preventing a full return to 100% of 2019 volume levels by 2026. These include an anticipation of increased travel costs, the ongoing prevalence of hybrid work arrangements, and persistent economic and geopolitical uncertainties ^{[^]}.

Global business travel spending will recover fully and exceed 2019 levels. In contrast, global business travel spending is expected to achieve full recovery by late 2024 and subsequently exceed its 2019 figures in the years that follow ^{[^]}.

EIA forecasts U.S. jet fuel prices averaging $2.65 per gallon for H1 2026. Based on projections available at the end of 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates the average price of U.S. jet fuel for the first half of 2026 to be approximately $2.65 per gallon ^{[^]}. This outlook was revised upward in the EIA's December 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), attributed to persistent supply issues and robust demand ^{[^]}. For specific quarters, prices are expected to average around $2.70 per gallon in Q1 2026 and $2.60 per gallon in Q2 2026 ^{[^]}. While these figures represent a general U.S. average, strong export activity from the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) is projected to contribute to firm prices in that region, driven by robust demand from Latin America and Europe ^{[^]}.

Goldman Sachs also holds a bullish outlook for 2026 refined oil products. In their 'Commodity Views 2026 Outlook,' Goldman Sachs expresses a bullish stance on refined oil product cracks ^{[^]}. This suggests an expectation of strong margins between crude oil and refined products, indicating higher jet fuel prices. Goldman Sachs specifically anticipates strong demand for distillates, which include jet fuel, throughout 2026 ^{[^]}. This perspective aligns with the EIA's upward revision, supporting a consensus view of elevated jet fuel prices for the first half of 2026.

No city-wide conventions exceeding 75,000 attendees are confirmed for April 27 - May 3, 2026. Based on available web research of major U.S. convention centers, no city-wide conventions with a projected attendance over 75,000 are confirmed to overlap with the specified period. The AATS 106th Annual Meeting, a medical conference, is scheduled from April 26-29, 2026, which falls within the target timeframe. However, its projected attendance is not stated to be over 75,000 in the provided sources ^{[^]}.

Other significant conventions are scheduled outside the target dates. For instance, the ACT Expo is scheduled for May 4-7, 2026, in Las Vegas, beginning after the requested period ^{[^]}. Similarly, the National Restaurant Association Show is slated for May 16-19, 2026, also falling outside the required dates ^{[^]}. These events do not overlap the April 27 - May 3, 2026 timeframe.

Several other events lack confirmed details within the period. The IEEE PES T&D Conference & Exposition in Chicago ^{[^]}, the NAB Show ^{[^]}, and Heart Rhythm 2026 ^{[^]} do not have specific 2026 dates in the available sources that confirm an overlap with April 27 - May 3, 2026. Furthermore, these sources do not specify projected attendance figures above 75,000 for these events. Therefore, no confirmed city-wide conventions meet both the date and attendance thresholds.

The Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) lacks a specific Real PCE growth projection. The SEP outlines economic forecasts from its Board and Bank presidents, covering various indicators such as real GDP change, unemployment rate, and PCE inflation ^{[^]}. However, the document does not explicitly provide a median projection for "Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) growth" as a distinct category ^{[^]}.

Overall economic growth for 2025 aligns with the longer-run estimate. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) growth, while not a distinct projection, is an important component of the broader "Change in real GDP." According to the Federal Reserve's final SEP for 2024, released in December 2024, the median projection for "Change in real GDP" for year-end 2025 was 1.8 percent [1, Table 1]. This 2025 projection matches the 'longer run' median estimate for "Change in real GDP," which was also 1.8 percent [1, Table 1]. This indicates that the projected growth for the overall economy in 2025 is consistent with its estimated long-term sustainable growth rate.

Catalyst analysis unavailable.