US housing starts for March 2026

Major economic surveys generally forecast 6.3% for Q1 2026 mortgage rates. Several prominent economic surveys anticipate the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to average 6.3% during the first quarter of 2026. Fannie Mae's housing and economic forecasts for January and March 2026 both project this rate ^{[^]}. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) also aligns with this outlook, predicting an average 30-year fixed rate of 6.3% for Q1 2026 ^{[^]}. Furthermore, Wells Fargo's U.S. Economic Outlook, published in January 2026, corroborates these predictions ^{[^]}.

Information is unavailable for March 2026 Federal Funds Rate. Regarding the implied Federal Funds Rate for the March 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the available research does not provide this specific information. The provided sources discussing the CME FedWatch Tool primarily reference probabilities and rate expectations for near-term FOMC meetings, such as April or March of the current year, rather than specifically for March 2026 ^{[^]}. Consequently, a direct comparison or alignment between the forecasted 30-year fixed mortgage rates for Q1 2026 and the implied Federal Funds Rate for the March 2026 FOMC meeting cannot be established from the provided data.

Based on their Q4 2025 earnings calls and reports, U.S. public homebuilders provided varied guidance for Q1 2026 new orders. Lennar Corporation was the sole top-five builder to offer specific Q1 2026 new order projections, forecasting between 16,000 and 16,500 new orders for the quarter ^{[^]}. Other major homebuilders, including D.R. Horton, PulteGroup, and Toll Brothers, did not provide explicit Q1 2026 new order guidance. Instead, D.R. Horton projected 92,000-95,000 homes closed for the full fiscal year 2026 ^{[^]}, PulteGroup anticipated Q1 2026 home sale closings between 6,000 and 6,400 units ^{[^]}, and Toll Brothers expected Q1 2026 deliveries of 1,900 to 2,000 homes ^{[^]}. NVR's Q4 2025 reporting did not include specific forward-looking guidance for new orders in Q1 2026 ^{[^]}.

No homebuilders provided precise Q1 2026 community count growth percentages. However, several builders offered outlooks for the broader fiscal year 2026. PulteGroup anticipates its full fiscal year 2026 community count to increase by 5% to 10% from its Q4 2025 ending count of 1,325 communities ^{[^]}. Lennar expects its active communities at the end of fiscal year 2026 to range between 1,200 and 1,250, an increase from 1,179 communities active in Q4 2025 ^{[^]}. Toll Brothers projects an average of 380 to 390 communities for fiscal year 2026, up from 370 active selling communities in Q4 2025 ^{[^]}. D.R. Horton generally expressed a focus on continuing to grow community count ^{[^]}, while NVR did not provide specific community count guidance for either Q1 2026 or the full fiscal year 2026 ^{[^]}.

Softwood lumber's PPI declined in December 2025, diverging from overall trends. In December 2025, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for softwood lumber experienced a dip, despite an overall increase of 0.5% in the broader PPI for the month ^{[^]}. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released these findings for December 2025 on January 30, 2026 ^{[^]}. However, the available research does not provide detailed month-over-month percentage changes for softwood lumber in October and November 2025 ^{[^]}.

Ready-mix concrete lacked specific month-over-month trend data for Q4 2025. Specific month-over-month trend information for ready-mix concrete during Q4 2025 is not available in the provided sources ^{[^]}. While detailed trends for this period are unavailable, the BLS does track PPI data for the Ready-Mix Concrete Manufacturing industry ^{[^]}.

Year-over-year comparisons for Q4 2024 are not possible with current data. The research does not contain any month-over-month trends or specific data points for either softwood lumber or ready-mix concrete for Q4 2024 [1-10]. Consequently, direct year-over-year comparisons with Q4 2025 cannot be made based on the information provided.

The Federal Reserve's January 2026 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) indicates a notable easing of lending standards for commercial real estate. While a specific combined category for "construction and land development loans for multifamily properties" is not distinctly reported, the survey provides data for closely related segments. Specifically, a net 10.3% of domestic banks reported easing standards for construction and land development loans, and a net 7.3% of banks reported easing standards for loans secured by multifamily residential properties ^{[^]}.

These figures represent a significant shift from prior periods, indicating a trend away from tightening. The previous quarter, for instance, saw a net 13.9% of banks tightening standards for general construction and land development loans ^{[^]}. The current results suggest an overall movement toward looser credit conditions within these commercial real estate market segments, including both the development and acquisition of multifamily properties ^{[^]}. This shift signals a change in banks' willingness to lend in these areas compared to earlier periods ^{[^]}.

Official U.S. Census Bureau housing permit data is not yet available. The seasonally adjusted total housing permits data for December 2025, January 2026, and February 2026 has not been released by the U.S. Census Bureau. These figures are crucial leading indicators for housing starts.

Data release follows a standard approximate one-month lag. The U.S. Census Bureau typically reports this data with about a one-month delay after the reference period ^{[^]}. For example, the data for February 2026 would generally become accessible in March 2026. Consequently, the official statistics for these recent months are not currently accessible.

Monitor Census Bureau releases for forthcoming housing data. Interested parties should consult the Census Bureau's New Residential Construction Press Releases and release schedules for updates on when these official figures will become available ^{[^]}.

Catalyst analysis unavailable.