TSA avg check-ins from May 4 to 10, 2026?
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for TSA average check-ins to be Above 1.8 million between May 4 and 10, 2026, with 99.8% model probability versus 0.0% market probability. This divergence is driven by recent TSA checkpoint data suggesting a slightly higher projected average for the full week compared to market consensus.
1. Executive Verdict
- Initial TSA data projects a higher weekly average despite economic headwinds.
- May 2026 consumer travel spending is expected to be positive but restrained.
- U.S. travel demand for Q2 2026 shows robust growth, especially air travel.
- Geopolitical tensions may increase oil prices, affecting domestic travel costs.
- Upcoming economic data releases could influence global currencies and markets.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.5 million | 2.0% | 25.0% | Early TSA checkpoint data, against historical averages, projects a slightly higher full-week average. |
| Above 2.45 million | 6.0% | 29.3% | Early TSA checkpoint data, against historical averages, projects a slightly higher full-week average. |
| Above 2.4 million | 98.0% | 78.0% | Early TSA checkpoint data, against historical averages, projects a slightly higher full-week average. |
| Above 2.6 million | 10.0% | 11.0% | Early TSA checkpoint data, against historical averages, projects a slightly higher full-week average. |
| Above 2.7 million | 10.0% | 4.0% | Early TSA checkpoint data, against historical averages, projects a slightly higher full-week average. |
Current Context
TSA checkpoint data shows varied daily traveler volumes at week's start. For May 4, 2026, the Transportation Security Administration recorded 2,540,806 travelers. On May 5, 2026, there were 2,040,845 travelers, and on May 6, 2026, the count was 2,251,410 travelers [^]. The TSA consistently updates its daily passenger travel numbers Monday through Friday by 9 a.m. [^].
The economy shows mixed signals with job growth and inflation concerns. In April, the U.S. economy added 115,000 new jobs, surpassing forecasts, although wage growth was slightly subdued at 3.6% [^]. The March Jobs report also exceeded expectations with 178,000 new jobs added, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% [^]. Despite a reported fall in U.S. job openings by 56,000 to 6.87 million in March 2026, this figure still exceeded market expectations [^][^]. The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.0% seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q1 2026, primarily driven by robust business fixed investment, particularly in AI-related expenditures [^][^]. Corporate earnings for Q1 2026 have materially surpassed expectations, achieving a blended year-over-year growth rate of 15.1% as of late April [^]. However, inflation remains a concern, partly due to elevated oil prices linked to the ongoing conflict in Iran [^][^]. The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates, with expectations that they will likely remain stable for most, if not all, of 2026, possibly with two rate cuts later in the year [^][^][^][^].
Geopolitical risks persist, yet the U.S. economy continues to demonstrate resilience. Concerns regarding geopolitical uncertainty, especially the Iran conflict, contribute to volatile energy prices and potential market fluctuations [^][^][^]. One economist issued an "8-week recession ultimatum," correlating it with the reopening of a crucial global oil route and highlighting slowing growth and rising unemployment as potential warning signs [^]. Despite these risks, there is a prevailing view that the U.S. economy remains resilient [^], underscored by the strong corporate earnings power being realized in reported results [^]. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for April also constituted a significant economic data release [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has demonstrated very little price movement, trading in a narrow band between 90% and 91%. The price started at 90% and has since climbed slightly to its current level of 91%, establishing a sideways trend with a slight upward bias. The price of 90% appears to have acted as a support level early in the period. The market's high starting probability suggests traders already anticipated strong travel figures, likely influenced by broader economic data such as reports of consistent job growth in March and April.
The minor price increase from 90% to 91% can be attributed to the release of official TSA checkpoint data for the first three days of the resolution period. With reported traveler volumes of 2.54 million, 2.04 million, and 2.25 million for May 4, May 5, and May 6 respectively, the average was already tracking well above the likely threshold for a "YES" resolution. This confirmation of strong travel numbers appears to have reduced the small amount of remaining uncertainty, firming up the market price.
Despite the high probability, the trading volume is zero contracts. This indicates a complete lack of market activity and suggests an overwhelming consensus on the outcome. The absence of trading implies that there are no participants willing to bet against the prevailing sentiment at the current price. The chart therefore reflects a market with very high, but untested, conviction that the average TSA check-in numbers will meet the contract's resolution criteria.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2.45 million for the week ending May 10, 2026, as verified by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA); otherwise, it resolves to "No." Trading closes at 11:59 PM EDT on May 10, 2026. The contract expires at the sooner of 9:00 AM following the release of the TSA data for May 10, 2026, or one week after May 10, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.4 million | $0.98 | $0.04 | 98% |
| Above 2.6 million | $0.01 | $1.00 | 10% |
| Above 2.7 million | $0.09 | $1.00 | 10% |
| Above 2.65 million | $0.10 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Above 2.75 million | $0.08 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Above 2.8 million | $0.08 | $1.00 | 9% |
| Above 2.45 million | $0.10 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Above 2.5 million | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Above 2.55 million | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Above 1.8 million | $1.00 | $0.09 | 0% |
| Above 1.85 million | $1.00 | $0.02 | 0% |
| Above 1.9 million | $1.00 | $0.09 | 0% |
| Above 1.95 million | $1.00 | $0.07 | 0% |
| Above 2 million | $1.00 | $0.03 | 0% |
| Above 2.05 million | $1.00 | $0.01 | 0% |
| Above 2.1 million | $1.00 | $0.10 | 0% |
| Above 2.15 million | $1.00 | $0.05 | 0% |
| Above 2.2 million | $1.00 | $0.10 | 0% |
| Above 2.25 million | $1.00 | $0.10 | 0% |
| Above 2.3 million | $1.00 | $0.10 | 0% |
| Above 2.35 million | $1.00 | $0.03 | 0% |
Market Discussion
The Kalshi market resolves based on whether the weekly average TSA airport screenings from May 4 to 10, 2026, are above 2.45 million, according to TSA data [^]. Polymarket's analogous market for total passengers during May 4 to May 10, 2026, shows leading outcomes of 16.5–17m and 17–17.5m (each at 27%), suggesting traders anticipate an average near Kalshi's 2.45 million threshold [^]. Early daily throughputs for May 4, 2026, and May 5, 2026, were 2,540,806 and 2,040,845, respectively [^].
4. How do TSA checkpoint passenger volumes for the second week of May 2026 compare to the same period in 2025 and 2024?
| May 2025 Passenger Volume | 1.48% decline compared to May 2024 [^] |
|---|---|
| 2025 Annual Domestic Air Travel | 2.57 million passenger increase compared to 2024 [^] |
| May 3, 2026 Passenger Volume | 1.62% decrease compared to May 3, 2025 [^] |
Specific passenger volume data for early May 2026 is unavailable. While precise passenger volume data for May 4-10, 2026, is not yet available, comparative trends can be observed from previous years. During the period of May 4-10, 2025, daily TSA checkpoint volumes fluctuated between 2,106,478 and 2,904,785 passengers [^]. For the corresponding week in 2024, May 4-10, daily figures ranged from 2,135,165 and 2,827,787 passengers [^].
Broader trends show a slight decline in early May. This observed pattern in daily volumes aligns with a general trend indicating that May 2025 experienced a 1.48% decrease in passenger volumes compared to May 2024 [^]. Despite this monthly reduction, 2025 ultimately achieved a new annual record for domestic air travel, increasing by 2.57 million passengers over 2024 [^]. Early indicators for 2026 also suggest a downward trend; preliminary data for May 3, 2026, shows a 1.62% year-over-year decrease compared to May 3, 2025, and a more significant 6.53% decrease compared to May 3, 2024 [^].
5. What impact will the April 2026 Jobs Report and recent Federal Reserve commentary have on consumer travel spending projections for May 2026?
| US Travel Spending Growth 2026 | about 1% (inflation-adjusted) [^] |
|---|---|
| Expected Unemployment Rate (April Jobs) | 4.3% [^] |
| Federal Funds Target Range | 3.5%-3.75% [^][^][^] |
May 2026 consumer travel spending will be positive but restrained. Projections, influenced by the April 2026 Jobs Report and recent Federal Reserve commentary, indicate a positive but modest outlook. The U.S. Travel outlook, published May 7, 2026, forecasts an approximately 1% growth in total U.S. travel spending for 2026 after adjusting for inflation, signifying resilient domestic demand partially offsets existing economic pressures [^]. This suggests consumer travel in May 2026 will likely neither surge nor collapse following recent economic news.
A cooling labor market and stable Fed policy support continued demand. The labor market shows signs of cooling without significant deterioration, supporting continued travel demand into May. CNN's preview for the April jobs report anticipated the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% with hiring in the tens of thousands, reducing the likelihood of a sharp drop in travel [^]. Concurrently, Federal Reserve communications from their April 28–29, 2026 meeting emphasized maintaining the federal funds target range at 3.5%–3.75%. Their assessment of elevated uncertainty generally suggests an environment where the economy is not "overheating," leading to restrained discretionary spending growth rather than a contraction [^][^][^].
Market sentiment aligns with modest positive travel spending expectations. This outlook is consistent with current market sentiment, as evidenced by Polymarket's co-leaders for "Number of TSA passengers May 4 - May 10?". Predictions for 16.5–17 million and 17–17.5 million passengers each hold 27% of the total predictions, suggesting a consensus among traders for a mid-range outcome [^]. This further supports expectations for modest positive travel spending in May, rather than a scenario of collapse driven by job market trends or Federal Reserve policy decisions.
6. What do leading travel industry indicators, such as airline booking trends and hotel occupancy rates for Q2 2026, suggest about the strength of U.S. travel demand?
| Domestic Air Passengers (March 2026) | 57 million, up 6.5% YoY [^] |
|---|---|
| TSA Daily Check-ins (late April/early May 2026) | 2.6 million average [^] |
| Hotel Occupancy (March 2026) | 64.9%, up 2.0% YoY [^] |
U.S. travel demand for Q2 2026 shows robust growth, particularly in air travel. Domestic air passenger volumes in March 2026 reached 57 million, marking a 6.5% year-over-year increase with an 81.3% load factor [^]. Daily TSA check-ins averaged approximately 2.6 million in late April and early May 2026, often peaking near 2.75 million on Fridays [^]. In anticipation of record-high summer travel, the TSA is deploying over 1,000 additional officers to manage projected daily passenger volumes of 2.8 million to 3 million [^].
The U.S. hotel industry is also demonstrating positive trends and growth. March 2026 saw hotel occupancy at 64.9%, a 2.0% year-over-year increase, with Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) growing by 5.9% [^]. Weekly hotel occupancy in late April 2026 was reported at 66.5%, up 1.2% year-over-year [^]. The full-year 2026 forecast for hotel RevPAR projects a 0.6% increase, with demand expected to rise by 0.4%, partly boosted by the FIFA World Cup in June and July [^].
7. What high-frequency data, such as credit card spending on travel from Q1 2026, is available to track near-real-time travel demand ahead of the May 4-10 period?
| TSA Daily Throughput Updates | Monday–Friday by 9 a.m. (local feed timing) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Security-Wait Observations | 184,012 over Apr 19–26, 2026 (UTC) [^] |
| Global Passenger Demand (March 2026) | up 2.1% year-over-year [^] |
Daily TSA data provides near-real-time travel demand insights. High-frequency data, including daily Transportation Security Administration (TSA) checkpoint throughputs and security-wait observations from airport-operator APIs, is available to monitor near-real-time travel demand for the May 4-10 period [^][^][^]. The TSA publishes daily checkpoint passenger totals, updated Monday through Friday by 9 a.m. (local feed timing), with data for May 4–5, 2026 already visible, enabling near-real-time monitoring [^][^]. This daily throughput information is also used by markets for resolution [^]. Furthermore, FlightQueue's “State of TSA: Spring 2026” reported 184,012 live security-wait observations across 41 major airports from April 19–26, 2026 (UTC), indicating a high-frequency congestion signal [^].
Bank card metrics offer valuable weekly travel spending insights. Bank card metrics provide insights into travel demand on a week-to-week basis. For example, the Bank of America Institute’s Q1 2026 card-data analysis illustrates how internal card data can be used to calculate daily airline transaction counts and growth in “spend per transaction” through March 28, 2026 [^]. For broader macro context on the spring travel season, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported on April 29, 2026, that global passenger demand in March 2026 increased by 2.1% year-over-year [^]. This IATA data, however, reflects a monthly rather than daily frequency.
8. How are volatile oil prices, influenced by geopolitical uncertainty in Iran, projected to affect U.S. domestic airfare and driving costs through May 2026?
| Jet Fuel Price Surge | from roughly $85-$90 to $150-$200 per barrel (Reuters, early May 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| US Gasoline Price Increase | up more than 30 cents in a week (NPR, May 3, 2026) [^] |
| Projected High Airfare Duration | through May 2026 (Reuters, CNBC) [^][^] |
Geopolitical tensions in Iran significantly disrupt oil supply and increase prices. Geopolitical uncertainty in Iran, particularly related to the U.S.-Israeli war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is causing substantial oil supply disruptions and volatile prices [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This situation has led to a significant surge in jet fuel prices, which have risen from approximately $85-$90 to $150-$200 per barrel, with some locations experiencing a doubling of prices [^][^]. The International Energy Agency's April 2026 oil market report highlighted this conflict as a major upheaval contributing to higher oil-price forecasts [^][^][^].
Higher oil prices are immediately raising U.S. airfare and driving costs. These escalating oil prices are directly impacting U.S. domestic airfare and driving expenses [^][^][^]. As of early May 2026, U.S. gasoline prices increased by more than 30 cents in a single week and are anticipated to continue rising as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed [^]. Experts foresee that inventory and logistics delays could sustain these elevated prices for weeks to months, with specific pressure on airfare projected through May 2026 [^][^][^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Several key economic data releases are scheduled for May 11-17, 2026. On Monday, May 11, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is scheduled for release, which could influence the yuan, other Asian currencies, the US dollar, and commodity markets [^][^]. An acceleration of consumer prices might prompt a tighter monetary policy from the People's Bank of China, potentially leading to yuan appreciation, while a low result could pressure the currency [^]. Tuesday, May 12, will see key inflation reports, including Germany's CPI figures and the significant US CPI data, along with the Australian Federal Budget release [^]. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) is scheduled for Wednesday, May 13, along with inflation expectations from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand [^]. Thursday, May 14, the UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and US retail sales figures will be released [^], followed by the University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday, May 15 [^].
For the broader economic outlook and market sentiment for 2026, the U.S. labor market is characterized by a 'low-hire, low-fire' dynamic, with forecasts generally anticipating modest job growth and a stable unemployment rate, though some expect job growth to pick up in the latter half of the year due to potential stimulus and easing monetary policy [^]. Inflation risks remain elevated, partly due to geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict, which are driving up energy prices [^][^]. This environment reinforces the Federal Reserve's stance of 'higher-for-longer' interest rates [^]. While J.P. Morgan Global Research projects double-digit gains for global equities in 2026, it also assigns a 35% probability of a U.S. and global recession [^]. AI investment is expected to continue driving market dynamics and supporting economic growth [^], but optimism about AI could also lead CEOs to reduce headcount, potentially impacting the labor market [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 17, 2026
- Closes: May 11, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Several key economic data releases are scheduled for May 11-17, 2026.
- Trigger: On Monday, May 11, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is scheduled for release, which could influence the yuan, other Asian currencies, the US dollar, and commodity markets [^] [^] .
- Trigger: An acceleration of consumer prices might prompt a tighter monetary policy from the People's Bank of China, potentially leading to yuan appreciation, while a low result could pressure the currency [^] .
- Trigger: Tuesday, May 12, will see key inflation reports, including Germany's CPI figures and the significant US CPI data, along with the Australian Federal Budget release [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 12 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTSAW-26MAY03-A2.80: NO (May 04, 2026)
- KXTSAW-26MAY03-A2.75: NO (May 04, 2026)
- KXTSAW-26MAY03-A2.70: NO (May 04, 2026)
- KXTSAW-26MAY03-A2.65: NO (May 04, 2026)
- KXTSAW-26MAY03-A2.60: NO (May 04, 2026)
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