Fed median dot plot in June 2026
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that the Fed median dot plot in June 2026 will be Above 3.0% is most likely, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Persistent inflation and strong labor data drive hawkish Fed expectations for June 2026.
- Q2 2026 economic data signals a hawkish shift in market expectations.
- Analysts anticipate a hawkish median dot plot above 3.5% in June 2026.
- Divergent market and FOMC expectations are noted for late 2026.
- Higher rate thresholds appear boosted by year-end rate hike likelihood.
- The June 2026 FOMC meeting includes an updated Summary of Economic Projections.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.5% | 91.0% | 94.1% | Persistent inflation and strong labor data indicate a significant hawkish shift in the Fed's projections. |
| Above 3.4% | 99.0% | 99.4% | Persistent inflation and strong labor data indicate a significant hawkish shift in the Fed's projections. |
| Above 3.6% | 14.0% | 19.3% | Strong evidence for a year-end rate hike and hawkish analyst sentiment supports higher projections. |
| Above 3.7% | 6.0% | 8.5% | Persistent inflation and increasing likelihood of a year-end rate hike signal an aggressive stance. |
| Above 3.0% | 96.0% | 99.4% | Persistent inflation and strong labor data indicate a significant hawkish shift in the Fed's projections. |
Current Context
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet on June 16–17, 2026, releasing its updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) and interest rate decision on June 17, 2026, at 2:00 p.m. ET [^][^][^][^]. This upcoming meeting marks the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, who assumed the role of Federal Reserve Chair on May 22, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Market consensus, including data from CME FedWatch, strongly anticipates the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate within the 3.50%–3.75% range, with prediction markets indicating a 96%–99% probability of a hold [^][^][^][^].
Analysts widely expect the updated dot plot to show a hawkish shift compared to the March 2026 projection [^] [^] [^] . | Blogerroom">[^][^]. This revised outlook is primarily driven by persistent rising inflation, exacerbated by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and elevated energy prices, which has diminished expectations for rate cuts in 2026 and introduced the possibility of future rate hikes [^][^][^]. Prediction markets are actively tracking the 2026 median dot plot, with over 90% confidence that the median rate projection for 2026 will remain above 3.5% [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market's price has exhibited no movement, maintaining a completely flat, sideways trend since its inception. The probability has remained static at 96.0%, which represents both the starting price and the current price. There have been no significant price spikes, drops, or any volatility whatsoever. Because the price has not changed, there are no established support or resistance levels.
The most critical feature of this market is the complete absence of trading activity, with a total volume of zero contracts traded. This indicates that the current 96.0% price is likely the initial offering price set by the market maker and does not reflect a consensus formed through buying and selling among traders. While the upcoming June 2026 FOMC meeting is a significant economic event, the market has not reacted to any news or developments because no one has traded.
The static 96.0% price suggests a very high initial expectation that the market will resolve to 'YES'. However, the lack of volume means this sentiment has not been tested or confirmed by market participants. The chart, therefore, reflects a starting proposition rather than an active, evolving consensus on the future of the Fed's median dot plot.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 June 12, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 84.0% to 93.0%
Outcome: Above 3.4%
What happened: Web research indicates that the reported 9.0 percentage point spike on June 12, 2026, in the prediction market for the Fed's June 2026 median dot plot being "Above 3.4%" appears unsupported by official documents or credible market reporting [^][^][^]. The relevant FOMC meeting and dot plot release are scheduled for June 16-17, 2026, with the dot plot released on June 17, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. As the specific price movement on June 12, 2026, lacks verifiable evidence, identifying a primary driver, including social media activity, is not possible. Therefore, social media activity is irrelevant to this unconfirmed event.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if the Federal Reserve's median dot plot for 2026 is above 3.5% at their June 17, 2026 meeting, as verified by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors; otherwise, it resolves to NO. Trading closes on June 17, 2026, at 1:55 PM EDT, with projected payouts later that day. Insider trading is prohibited, particularly for employees of source agencies or anyone holding material, non-public information regarding the underlying market.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.1% | $1.00 | $0.05 | 99% |
| Above 3.4% | $0.99 | $0.07 | 99% |
| Above 3.2% | $0.99 | $0.05 | 98% |
| Above 3.0% | $1.00 | $0.04 | 96% |
| Above 3.3% | $0.99 | $0.05 | 95% |
| Above 3.5% | $0.92 | $0.16 | 91% |
| Above 3.6% | $0.13 | $0.94 | 14% |
| Above 3.7% | $0.08 | $1.00 | 6% |
Market Discussion
Market participants widely expect the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% during the June 16-17, 2026, FOMC meeting, which will be Kevin Warsh's first as Fed Chair [^][^][^][^][^][^]. However, commentary focuses on the risk of a "hawkish" median dot plot, expected to be released on June 17, 2026 [^][^][^]. Analysts anticipate the dot plot will likely shift away from previous rate cut projections for 2026, potentially signaling no cuts or even a tightening bias due to persistent inflation and resilient economic growth, removing the easing bias previously indicated by the March 2026 dot plot [^][^][^].
5. What specific inflation or employment figures in the Q2 2026 reports could trigger a significant deviation from the March 2026 dot plot consensus?
| Annual CPI May 2026 | 4.2% [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Non-Farm Payroll Growth May 2026 | 172,000 [^][^][^] |
| Expected Fed Dot Plot Shift | Fewer/no rate cuts or potential rate hikes in 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
Q2 2026 economic data indicates a hawkish shift in market expectations. Recent inflation and employment reports for Q2 2026 have significantly shifted market expectations towards a more stringent monetary policy stance. Specifically, the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 4.2% in May, and non-farm payrolls showed robust growth of 172,000 in the same month [^][^][^]. These economic indicators have prompted a market repricing that anticipates a more hawkish approach.
A significant dot plot deviation is anticipated at the June 2026 meeting. A notable deviation from the Federal Reserve's March 2026 dot plot consensus is expected at the upcoming June 2026 meeting [^][^][^][^]. This deviation is likely to manifest as a shift in the median dot, reflecting either fewer or no rate cuts in 2026, or potentially signaling future rate hikes. This expected change is driven by the need to address persistent inflation and the observed resilience in the labor market [^][^][^][^].
6. What specific macroeconomic indicators are analysts citing as primary evidence for a hawkish median dot plot above 3.5% in June 2026?
| May 2026 CPI | 4.2% [^][^] |
|---|---|
| New FOMC Chair | Kevin Warsh [^][^][^][^] |
| Primary Inflation Driver | Energy price shock (Strait of Hormuz conflict) [^][^][^][^] |
Persistent inflation and energy shock drive hawkish June 2026 rate expectations. Analysts anticipate a hawkish median Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) dot plot and potential rate hikes through 2026, primarily due to persistent inflationary pressures and strong macroeconomic indicators [^][^][^][^]. A significant contributor to ongoing inflation is the energy price shock stemming from the Strait of Hormuz conflict [^][^][^][^]. This outlook is further supported by the May 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which registered at 4.2% [^][^].
Robust labor market and new leadership reinforce a hawkish stance. Expectations for a more restrictive monetary policy are bolstered by stronger-than-expected labor market data, including the May 2026 non-farm payrolls and employment reports [^][^][^][^]. This robust economic performance diminishes the perceived need for the Federal Reserve to implement rate cuts. Additional signals for a hawkish shift include the transition of FOMC leadership to Chair Kevin Warsh and the anticipated removal of an easing bias from the policy statement [^][^][^][^].
7. How do rate path expectations from the CME FedWatch Tool for late 2026 compare to the projections from the FOMC's March 2026 dot plot?
| Probability of 25bps hike by year-end 2026 | Over 60-70% (CME FedWatch Tool, mid-June 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| FOMC implied rate cut for year-end 2026 | One 25bps rate cut from 3.50%-3.75% (March 2026 dot plot) [^][^][^] |
| Kalshi probability of 2026 median dot plot above 3.5% | 91% (June 2026) [^] |
Market and FOMC expectations diverge significantly for late 2026. As of mid-June 2026, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a hawkish outlook among market participants, with a significant probability, over 60–70%, priced in for at least one 25-basis-point rate hike by year-end [^][^][^]. This market perspective contrasts sharply with the easing bias that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had previously projected.
The FOMC's March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, or dot plot, had previously projected an easing bias. It indicated a median federal funds rate for year-end 2026 that implied one 25-basis-point rate cut from the then-current range of 3.50%–3.75% [^][^][^]. This earlier FOMC outlook for a rate reduction is directly contradicted by the more recent market expectations reflected in the CME FedWatch Tool [^][^][^].
Prediction markets further confirm a shift from rate cut expectations. For example, prediction markets on Kalshi, concerning the June 2026 Fed median dot plot for 2026, reflect high confidence, showing a 91% probability that the median will be above 3.5% [^]. This robust market signal suggests a significant retreat from earlier anticipations of a rate cut during 2026 [^].
8. What has been the historical accuracy of the Fed's median dot plot projection two years out?
| Dot plot accuracy at 2 years | Little to no correlation with realized rates [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Long-term projections description | Equivalent to random guessing or "poking around in the fog" [^][^][^] |
| SEP update frequency | Quarterly [^][^][^] |
The Federal Reserve's long-term interest rate projections historically lack accuracy. The median dot plot projections, particularly those looking two years into the future, frequently demonstrate little to no correlation with actual realized interest rates. The accuracy of these projections substantially declines as the forecast horizon lengthens [^][^][^]. Such long-term projections have been critically characterized as equivalent to random guessing or "poking around in the fog" [^][^][^].
Short-term SEP forecasts often outperform other predictive measures, but have limitations. A 2026 Federal Reserve study highlights that while the median Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) often surpasses consensus surveys and market-based measures over shorter horizons, its performance relative to other methods is not uniform [^][^][^]. Furthermore, the practical utility of the SEP is notably constrained by the fact that it is only updated quarterly [^][^][^].
9. Beyond the median, what did the dispersion of individual dots in the March 2026 projection indicate about the level of consensus within the FOMC?
| March 2026 FOMC Consensus | Increasing level of consensus [^] |
|---|---|
| Participants Projecting Rate Cuts (March 2026) | 14 out of 19 projected no or one rate cut [^] |
| Median Interest Rate Outlook (March 2026) | Unchanged [^] |
The March 2026 dot plot revealed increasing FOMC consensus. The individual projections indicated a growing level of agreement within the Federal Open Market Committee. This was reflected in a narrower distribution of projections and more clustered views among participants compared to earlier meetings [^][^]. This increasing consensus was evident despite the median interest rate outlook remaining unchanged in March 2026 [^].
Specific projections highlighted widespread agreement among participants. Notably, 14 out of 19 FOMC participants projected either no or only one rate cut for the remainder of 2026 [^]. Furthermore, the distribution of projections for yearend 2026 was narrower than observed in the December 2025 dot plot [^][^]. The dispersion of these March 2026 projections, even with an unchanged median, remained much smaller than the average historical forecast errors observed over the past 20 years [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The FOMC meeting for June 2026 is scheduled for June 16–17, 2026, with the rate decision and updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) scheduled for release at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, June 17, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Market consensus ahead of the June 17, 2026, meeting is for the Federal Reserve to maintain the target federal funds rate in the 3.50%–3.75% range [^][^].
This meeting marks the first for new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh [^] [^] . Analysts expect the updated dot plot to provide significant market volatility, with potential hawkish revisions compared to the March 2026 projections [^][^]. The March 2026 median dot plot projection indicated a year-end 2026 federal funds rate of 3.4%, effectively penciling in one 25 basis point rate cut for the remainder of 2026 [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 24, 2026
- Closes: June 17, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The FOMC meeting for June 2026 is scheduled for June 16–17, 2026, with the rate decision and updated Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) scheduled for release at 2:00 p.m.
- Trigger: ET on Wednesday, June 17, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Market consensus ahead of the June 17, 2026, meeting is for the Federal Reserve to maintain the target federal funds rate in the 3.50%–3.75% range [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This meeting marks the first for new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
