Gas prices in the US in May 2026?

Gasoline price forecasts for May 2026 show significant divergence among sources. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects summer 2026 gasoline prices around $3.70/gal, with an annual average of $3.70/gal for 2026, representing a 19% increase from the $3.10/gal estimated for 2025 ^{[^][^][^]}. In contrast, GasBuddy anticipates a May 2026 average of $3.12/gal and an annual forecast of $2.97/gal for 2026, which would mark a 4% decrease from 2025 ^{[^][^][^]}. AAA does not provide an explicit May 2026 forecast; however, their current April 2026 average is approximately $4.30, noted amidst crude oil prices exceeding $100/bbl ^{[^][^]}. These differing projections highlight varied analytical approaches to future market conditions.

Distinct methodologies underpin the varying 2026 gasoline price projections. The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) models incorporate crude oil prices, which account for roughly 50% of the total price, alongside refining costs and global supply and demand dynamics ^{[^][^]}. GasBuddy, on the other hand, relies on an independent analysis of trends, supply chains, and seasonality. This approach has demonstrated historical accuracy, with a 1.48% error noted in 2024 ^{[^][^]}. The contrasting outlooks from the EIA and GasBuddy reflect these differing analytical frameworks.

Disruption of the Strait of Hormuz poses a key upside risk to U.S. gas prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) explicitly warns that assumptions regarding crude and petroleum can materially influence energy prices, indicating that geopolitical crude shocks pose plausible upside tail risks for gas-linked markets before May 2026 ^{[^]}. A scenario involving a Strait of Hormuz disruption, which could remove approximately 20% of global oil supplies in Q2 2026, is projected by Dallas Federal Reserve research to result in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices reaching about $98 per barrel in Q2 2026, alongside a material decrease in global real GDP growth ^{[^]}. However, during early 2026 events involving Iranian forces declaring the Strait “closed” and attacking ships, U.S. natural gas prices remained relatively flat, showing only about a 7% increase around February 27–March 2, in contrast to larger increases observed in Asia and Europe ^{[^]}.

Reinstatement of OPEC+ production cuts also represents an upside risk. Reuters reports that OPEC anticipates a narrower supply deficit for 2026, primarily because OPEC+ is increasing production by unwinding cuts faster than previously scheduled ^{[^]}. This indicates that a reversal of this trend, such as the reinstatement of production cuts, could lead to a tighter-supply upside shock for crude oil, subsequently impacting gas prices ^{[^]}.

GasBuddy projects significantly lower gasoline prices in 2026. GasBuddy forecasts a national average gasoline price of $2.97 per gallon in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline and the lowest annual average since 2020 ^{[^][^][^][^][^][^]}. This outlook is supported by the unwinding of post-pandemic market distortions, expanding global refining capacity, more stable supply chains, and U.S. crude production reaching record levels of 13.5 million barrels per day ^{[^][^][^]}.

The EIA also forecasts reduced prices due to supply-demand dynamics. They anticipate a 6% decrease in U.S. retail gasoline prices in 2026 compared to 2025 ^{[^][^]}. The EIA projects global crude oil supply will continue to exceed demand, pushing Brent crude prices to an annual average of $55 per barrel, which would be the lowest since 2020 ^{[^][^][^][^]}. Key factors influencing this include an expected reduction in gasoline consumption due to increasing fleetwide fuel economy and stable U.S. crude oil production at 13.6 million barrels per day through 2025 and 2026 ^{[^][^]}.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases are not a primary bearish driver. While SPR releases can influence prices, the available information indicates a relatively minor SPR decrease of 1.7 million barrels for the week ending April 3, 2026, which was primarily in response to geopolitical tensions ^{[^]}. This research does not suggest that sustained SPR releases are a major factor underpinning the bearish 2026 price outlooks from GasBuddy or the EIA ^{[^]}.

Crude oil price changes pass through to gasoline prices over 2.5 months. Changes in crude oil spot prices generally translate fully to U.S. average retail gasoline prices within approximately 2.5 months ^{[^]}. The initial stages of this pass-through are rapid, with around 50% of a price alteration reflected in retail prices within about two weeks, and roughly 80% within four weeks. These figures can exhibit regional variations ^{[^]}.

U.S. gasoline prices correlate more with Brent than WTI since 2010. A 2014 study by the EIA highlighted that the ability to explain U.S. gasoline price fluctuations depends on the specific crude oil benchmark used ^{[^]}. This research indicated that U.S. gasoline prices have been more closely linked to Brent crude oil than to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) since a divergence occurred after 2010. Following this period, WTI's effectiveness in explaining U.S. gasoline price changes was found to have declined ^{[^]}.

The spring 2026 refinery maintenance season significantly impacts U.S. fuel supply. May is historically a month when seasonal gas prices tend to peak, influenced by an extensive spring refinery maintenance season ^{[^][^][^]}. During these planned turnarounds, sections of refineries are taken offline, which reduces gasoline output and tightens fuel supply ^{[^][^][^][^][^]}. For instance, Midwest refineries had an average of 378,000 barrels per day offline for maintenance in April 2026, and an unplanned power outage at a major BP refinery in northwest Indiana was expected to cause substantial, localized price spikes ^{[^][^][^]}. By May, the projected offline capacity was expected to decrease to approximately 0.5 million barrels per day ^{[^]}.

The transition to summer-blend gasoline further strains fuel supply. Another significant factor contributing to price increases is the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s mandated transition to summer-blend gasoline ^{[^][^]}. Refineries typically begin producing this blend in March and April, with fuel terminals generally required to sell only summer-blend by May 1 ^{[^][^][^][^]}. This blend requires additional refining processes, resulting in lower gasoline yields and potentially adding 10 to 30 cents per gallon to pump prices ^{[^][^][^][^][^]}. Regulatory deadlines can also lead to temporary drawdowns in inventories, as highlighted by Florida's waiver for winter-blend sales due to supply circumstances ^{[^][^][^]}. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions, such as those involving the U.S. and Iran, contributed to higher crude oil prices and market volatility in early 2026, amplifying seasonal increases ^{[^][^][^]}.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects an average U.S. retail gasoline price of $3.70 per gallon for 2026 ^{[^][^][^]}. This outlook is generally consistent with the NY Harbor RBOB Gasoline May 2026 futures contract (RBK26) which has been quoted around $3.77 per gallon, suggesting a market-implied May 2026 price level in the mid-to-high $3 range, subject to daily fluctuations and differences between futures and retail prices ^{[^][^]}.

Key catalysts that could drive prices higher include geopolitical disruptions, specifically a potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, as highlighted in prediction markets [^] [^] . | Manifold">[^]^{[^]}. Additionally, refinery-related constraints are identified by the EIA as a source of potential volatility that could impact gasoline prices ^{[^][^]}.

Conversely, bearish catalysts involve a moderation in crude oil prices and an improvement in Strait of Hormuz conditions [^] [^] . | Manifold">[^]^{[^]}. This aligns with the EIA's broader view, as referenced in prediction markets, that prices will be "mostly moderate for the rest of 2026" if these conditions hold ^{[^][^]}.