Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, 2026

A new wave of U.S. layoffs emerged in Q1 2026, with WARN Act notices indicating a significant trend of job reductions scheduled for April 2026, particularly across technology, manufacturing, and transportation sectors ^{[^]}. Nationally, a total of 118 WARN notices were issued for April 2026, resulting in 18,340 job cuts across various industries ^{[^]}. Specifically, the Information & Technology sector saw 22 WARN notices affecting 3,590 employees, while the Manufacturing sector experienced 28 notices impacting 4,120 employees. The Transportation and Warehousing sector also reported a notable impact, with 8 notices leading to 890 job cuts during April 2026 ^{[^]}.

High-population states experienced significant layoffs, especially California and Texas. California recorded 23 WARN notices, resulting in 3,060 job cuts ^{[^]}. Within California, the Technology sector was particularly affected, with 12 notices impacting 2,210 employees. Texas also experienced substantial job reductions in April 2026, with 10 WARN notices leading to 1,020 job cuts, affecting its Information, Manufacturing, and Transportation and Warehousing sectors ^{[^]}. While New York was identified as one of the six states hardest hit by layoffs in 2026 ^{[^]}, specific WARN Act notice data for April 2026 in these sectors for New York is not explicitly detailed within the provided research.

March 2026 ISM reports reveal contrasting employment trends. The manufacturing sector's employment outlook contracted, with the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index registering 48.5 percent, a decrease from 51.9 percent in February 2026. A reading below 50 percent indicates contraction ^{[^]}. Conversely, the services sector continued to expand, as its Employment Index reached 52 percent in March 2026, although this represented a slower pace compared to the 54.7 percent recorded in February ^{[^]}.

Small business hiring plans softened during March 2026. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March 2026 indicated that a net 9 percent of small business owners intended to create new jobs within the next three months ^{[^]}. This figure, however, marked a four-point decline from the preceding month, suggesting a softening in hiring intentions among small businesses ^{[^]}.

Overall, forward-looking employment shows a mixed, varied economic outlook. Manufacturing signals contraction ^{[^]}, services continue to expand but at a slower rate ^{[^]}, and small businesses, while still positive, show decreasing intent to hire ^{[^]}. This data collectively points to varying employment dynamics across different segments of the economy.

Several states with historically high unemployment insurance claims volumes have implemented or announced changes to their systems and eligibility rules set to take effect before April 2026. New York has enacted significant legislation within its Fiscal Year 2026 budget to strengthen and protect the workforce ^{[^]}, with weekly unemployment insurance benefits scheduled to increase starting October 2025 ^{[^]}. Pennsylvania will implement Act 55 in January 2026, establishing an "express lane" for unemployment compensation claimants affected by domestic violence ^{[^]}. In California, the Employment Development Department has announced updated 2026 contribution rates, which are relevant to the funding structure of the unemployment insurance system and will be effective by 2026 ^{[^]}.

System modernizations and legislative efforts are also underway in these states. Texas has announced updates to its Unemployment System (TxUS) aimed at improving processing capabilities ^{[^]}. Furthermore, ongoing legislative initiatives for the 2025-2026 sessions indicate continued attention to unemployment insurance, including California's SB-854 ^{[^]}, Pennsylvania's HB0274 ^{[^]}, and Texas's HB3699 ^{[^]}.

The 2026 seasonal adjustment factor remains unpublished by the BLS. The specific seasonal adjustment factor for initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, 2026, has not yet been released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). These factors are typically calculated and made public annually for the upcoming year by the conclusion of the current year ^{[^]}. For comparative purposes, the factors for the calendar week most closely aligning with late April in previous post-pandemic years were 0.992 for Week 17 (ending April 29) in 2023 ^{[^]}, 0.999 for Week 16 (ending April 27) in 2024 ^{[^]}, and 0.982 for Week 16 (ending April 26) in 2025 ^{[^]}.

Variable holiday dates, like Easter, can distort seasonal adjustment models. Calendar quirks, particularly the fluctuating date of Easter, have the potential to impact the effectiveness of the seasonal adjustment model. The BLS explicitly addresses holidays with variable dates by utilizing calendar variables within its seasonal adjustment methodology ^{[^]}. A notable example is Easter 2025, which occurred on April 20 ^{[^]}, a particularly late date that fell directly within Week 16 (ending April 26). This "late Easter" in 2025 could have significantly influenced the seasonal adjustment factor for that week when compared to years with earlier Easters, such as 2024 (March 31) or 2023 (April 9) ^{[^]}.

Easter 2026 is earlier, and the BLS model incorporates such shifts. For 2026, Easter is scheduled for April 5 ^{[^]}, positioning it earlier in the month relative to the target week ending April 25. The BLS model is specifically designed to incorporate these calendar shifts to prevent distortions in the seasonally adjusted data ^{[^]}. This approach ensures that the statistics accurately reflect underlying labor market trends despite the variable timing of holidays ^{[^]}.

Weekly initial jobless claims revisions consistently involved minor downward adjustments. In the eight weeks preceding April 25, 2026, revisions to initial jobless claims, when they occurred, consistently showed a minor downward adjustment of 1,000 claims. This pattern suggests that initial jobless claims tend to be slightly over-estimated in their first release, particularly when subsequent adjustments are deemed necessary. For the weeks where no adjustments were required, the initial figures remained unchanged.

Several weeks demonstrate this trend of downward revisions to initial claims. For instance, the initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18, 2026, were first reported at 204,000 ^{[^]} and later revised down by 1,000 to 203,000 ^{[^]}. Similar downward revisions of 1,000 claims occurred for the week ending March 7, 2026, which moved from an initial 208,000 to 207,000 ^{[^]}, and for the week ending February 28, 2026, where claims were adjusted from 210,000 to 209,000 ^{[^]}. In all three instances of revision within this period, the adjustment maintained a consistent decrease of 1,000 claims.

However, many other weeks showed no revisions to their initial estimates. Conversely, several weeks within the same eight-week period saw no revisions to their initial figures. These included the weeks ending April 11, March 28, March 21, March 14, and April 4, 2026, with their initial estimates remaining unchanged at 203,000, 213,000, 212,000, 215,000, and 204,000 respectively ^{[^]}.

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