How high will gas prices in Texas get this year?

CSU forecasts a somewhat below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. On April 9, the Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project released its initial forecast, predicting a season characterized by fewer storms than average ^{[^]}. Specifically, the outlook anticipates a total of 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, which are defined as Category 3 or higher ^{[^]}.

Landfall probabilities suggest a significant risk for the U.S. Gulf Coast. The CSU team also provided landfall probabilities, indicating a 28% chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall along the broader U.S. Gulf Coast, encompassing the area from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas ^{[^]}. When considering specific regions, both the Texas Coast (from Corpus Christi to Brownsville) and the Louisiana Coast (from Intracoastal City to Morgan City) are assigned a 7% probability for a major hurricane landfall ^{[^]}. It is important to note that specific predictions from NOAA for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season are not yet available ^{[^]}.

PADD 3 expects over 1.4 million BBL/d offline in Q2-Q3 2026. Over 1.4 million barrels per day (BBL/d) of refining capacity in the U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) is projected to be offline for planned maintenance, or turnarounds, during the second and third quarters of 2026, according to energy infrastructure intelligence providers ^{[^]}. This figure represents the substantial volume of upcoming maintenance activities in the region.

PADD 3 maintenance in 2026 exceeds the five-year average by 25%. This scheduled maintenance represents a notable increase compared to historical averages for the period. The projected volume of over 1.4 million BBL/d for Q2 and Q3 2026 indicates a 25% increase over the five-year average for the same period ^{[^]}. This suggests a particularly busy period for refinery maintenance in PADD 3.

Quantified data on U.S. Gulf Coast gasoline arbitrage spreads is limited. While explicit quantification of the arbitrage spread trend between U.S. Gulf Coast conventional gasoline (CBOB) futures and landed prices in Latin American import markets, such as Mexico, is not detailed in the available research, broader market indicators point to a dynamic and potentially challenging arbitrage environment. The overall arbitrage outlook is currently seen as threatening the RBOB complex ^{[^]}. Furthermore, transatlantic (TA) gasoline arbitrages have recently experienced a significant increase, driven by stronger European Brent gasoline (EBOB) physicals and an ongoing U.S. export crunch ^{[^]}.

PADD 3 gasoline export bookings are significantly above seasonal norms. Regarding May-June 2026 cargo bookings for gasoline exports from PADD 3 (U.S. Gulf Coast), available data indicates that exports are tracking significantly above the seasonal norm. U.S. gasoline exports across May, June, and July have achieved new seasonal high records ^{[^]}. Considering that the U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) functions as a primary hub for both total product and conventional motor gasoline exports ^{[^]}, this strong performance in overall U.S. gasoline exports suggests that cargo bookings originating from this region for May-June 2026 are robust and surpassing typical seasonal volumes.

Forecasting PADD 3 gasoline inventory levels with certainty is not possible. Predicting whether Gulf Coast (PADD 3) total gasoline inventories will drop below the 5-year seasonal average for three consecutive weeks before July 1, 2026, requires forecasting future market conditions, production, and demand, which is beyond the scope of available historical data ^{[^]}. The research focuses on factual data rather than market prediction or speculation about future inventory movements.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) offers crucial data for tracking inventories. The EIA provides weekly data on Gulf Coast (PADD 3) ending stocks of total gasoline, which allows for tracking historical inventory levels and calculating the 5-year seasonal average ^{[^]}. A sustained drop below this average would signify a tightening of regional supply buffers. The EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Reports (WPSR) offer comprehensive U.S. and regional petroleum supply data, including for PADD 3, with archived reports providing insights into past conditions ^{[^]}.

Monitoring EIA reports as they are released is essential for observing actual trends. While the original question may relate to prediction markets concerning future Texas gas prices ^{[^]}, direct observation of real-time data is necessary. Closely tracking the EIA's weekly reports will be critical for observing actual trends in PADD 3 gasoline inventories relative to their seasonal average closer to the specified timeframe ^{[^]}.

Specific 2026 regional vehicle miles traveled forecasts are unavailable in the research. The provided web research does not contain the specific year-over-year percentage change forecasts for vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the South region for AAA's official 2026 Memorial Day and Independence Day travel forecasts. Furthermore, the sources do not include any comparison to pre-release consensus estimates from energy analysts for these specific figures.

Recent AAA forecasts detail overall domestic travel volumes for 2024 and 2025. The available sources predominantly provide travel forecasts for 2025 and 2024, focusing on the total number of Americans expected to travel domestically. For instance, AAA news releases from May 2025 indicated that 45.1 million Americans were expected to travel for Memorial Day ^{[^]}, and a record 72.2 million for the July 4th week in 2025 ^{[^]}. Similarly, 2024 forecasts reported nearly 44 million travelers for Memorial Day ^{[^]}. These forecasts discuss overall travel volumes but do not detail regional VMT percentage changes, nor do they extend to 2026 or offer comparisons with energy analyst predictions.

Catalyst analysis unavailable.