Deadlift index on May 12, 2026
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the Deadlift index on May 12, 2026 to be Above 405.89, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Persistent inflation and surging energy prices likely pressure the Deadlift Index downwards.
- A hawkish Federal Reserve stance likely creates a challenging corporate environment.
- US-Iran conflict disrupts global energy markets before May 2026.
- The Truflation Deadlift Index lacks extensive historical market correlation.
- Truflation introduced the Deadlift Index framework in October 2024.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 405.89 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Persistent inflation and geopolitical conflict are likely to exert downward pressure on the Deadlift Index. |
| Above 408.39 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Persistent inflation and geopolitical conflict are likely to exert downward pressure on the Deadlift Index. |
| Above 410.89 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Persistent inflation and geopolitical conflict are likely to exert downward pressure on the Deadlift Index. |
| Above 413.39 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Persistent inflation and geopolitical conflict are likely to exert downward pressure on the Deadlift Index. |
| Above 415.89 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Persistent inflation and geopolitical conflict are likely to exert downward pressure on the Deadlift Index. |
Current Context
Recent economic data indicates persistent inflationary pressures across multiple sectors. The Deadlift index, designed to merge fitness trends, finance, and corporate performance using unique non-financial metrics, offers a novel way for investors to analyze markets [^][^][^][^][^]. Real-time data for this index is available via Truflation, though the latest 30 days require a sign-in [^]. Annually, the all-items index increased by 3.8% before seasonal adjustment, slightly surpassing the 3.7% consensus forecast [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy components, rose 0.4% in April, exceeding the anticipated 0.3% month-over-month, and advanced 2.8% over the last 12 months [^][^][^][^]. Major contributors to this inflation included energy prices, with gasoline surging 28.4% year-over-year, and shelter costs [^][^][^]. Food prices also saw a 0.5% increase in April [^][^]. Additionally, AIER's proprietary Everyday Price Index (EPI) surged significantly in April, highlighting an ongoing affordability crisis as essential goods and services continue to rise faster than incomes [^]. Small businesses continue to report labor quality as their top concern, observing both actual and planned price increases [^]. Upcoming key economic data includes the April Producer Price Index (May 13), April Retail Sales (May 14), and the University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index (May 15) [^], while the CPI for May 2026 is scheduled for release on June 10, 2026 [^].
Persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions are influencing market sentiment and central bank policy. US stock markets experienced declines, with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 dipping around 2% and the S&P 500 also lower, primarily due to a sell-off in technology and AI-linked stocks which had previously seen strong rallies [^][^]. The April CPI data is expected to heavily influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming June meeting [^]. Although incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is perceived as more open to rate cuts, persistent inflation, exacerbated by oil shocks, makes a rate cut unlikely without significantly softer inflation data [^][^][^][^]. Goldman Sachs has reportedly delayed its Fed rate-cut forecasts to December 2026 in response to these inflationary pressures [^]. Geopolitical developments, particularly escalating US-Iran tensions where President Trump stated the truce is on "life support," are driving oil prices higher, with WTI crude near $102 per barrel and Brent near $108 per barrel [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. This instability further contributes to inflation and impacts global supply chains, notably affecting air travel in China due to increased fuel costs [^][^][^][^][^][^]. In the euro area, the unemployment rate is anticipated to remain near 6.4% [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a sideways trend with very low volatility. The price began at a 2.0% probability and is currently at the same level, which has acted as a consistent support floor. The market saw a minor peak, establishing a temporary resistance at 5.0%, before returning to its starting point. Overall, the price has been confined to a narrow range, indicating a stable and low probability assigned to a "YES" resolution.
The most critical technical aspect of this market is the total trading volume of zero contracts. This lack of any trading activity signifies that the price fluctuations within the 2.0% to 5.0% range are not the result of market transactions or shifts in trader sentiment. Instead, these changes likely reflect automated adjustments in bid and ask prices. Because no trades have been executed, it is impossible to connect the price movements to the provided context regarding inflationary pressures or the nature of the Deadlift index. The chart indicates a complete absence of market conviction or participation, suggesting that traders have not yet engaged with this market to express an opinion. The current price reflects offered odds rather than a consensus formed through trading.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if the Truflation Deadlift Index on May 12, 2026, is above 405.89, and No otherwise. The market opened on May 11, 2026, and is scheduled to close by May 12, 2026, at 7:59 pm EDT, with projected payout 30 minutes after closing. The market may close and expire early if the economic data is released before the scheduled closing time.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 405.89 | $0.98 | $0.98 | 0% |
| Above 408.39 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 410.89 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 413.39 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 415.89 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 418.39 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 420.89 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 423.39 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 425.89 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 428.39 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 430.89 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 433.39 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 435.89 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 438.39 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 440.89 | $1.00 | $0.99 | 0% |
Market Discussion
A prediction market for the Truflation Deadlift Index on May 12, 2026, resolves to "Yes" if the index is above 405.89 on that date [^]. This daily index, co-authored by Pieter Levels and Truflation, posits a correlation between CEOs who deadlift and S&P 500 outperformance [^][^]. While the "Deadlift ETF" concept appears to have generated broader social media and market interest, specific discussions concerning the May 12, 2026 market were not found [^][^].
4. How might the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions in the first half of 2026 influence the corporate and consumer components of the Deadlift Index?
| Federal funds rate target range | 3-1/2%–3-3/4% (April 29, 2026 FOMC decision) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Fed monetary policy framing | Data-dependent (April 29, 2026 FOMC decision) [^][^] |
| Deadlift Index orientation | Corporate-performance/CEO-behavior oriented [^][^] |
Federal Reserve policy may influence the Deadlift Index's corporate components. The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3-1/2%–3-3/4% following its April 29, 2026 FOMC decision, with monetary policy characterized as data-dependent [^][^]. This stance during the first half of 2026 is relevant to broader equity and credit conditions [^][^]. Given that the Deadlift Index focuses on corporate performance and CEO behavior, especially for CEOs outperforming on the S&P 500, these monetary policy decisions could potentially influence the corporate elements of the index [^][^][^][^].
Insufficient data exists to assess consumer component impact from monetary policy. The public definition of the Deadlift Index primarily characterizes it as oriented toward corporate performance and CEO behavior, rather than consumer demand [^][^]. Additionally, the index's public information does not specify any splits between corporate and consumer components [^][^]. Consequently, based solely on the available facts, there is insufficient information to determine how the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions in the first half of 2026 might influence any consumer component of the Deadlift Index [^][^].
5. What is the historical correlation between the Truflation Deadlift Index and traditional market benchmarks like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite?
| Launch Date | October 2024 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Index Provider | Truflation [^][^][^][^] |
| Historical Correlation Data Availability | Not yet available (with S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite) [^][^][^] |
The Truflation Deadlift Index lacks extensive historical market correlation. This new economic indicator was launched in October 2024 by Truflation, a provider of real-time financial data [^][^][^]. Consequently, extensive historical correlation data between this index and traditional market benchmarks such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite is not yet available due to its recent introduction [^][^][^].
The index provides novel, real-time insights based on CEO fitness. It was introduced following research suggesting that CEOs who engage in weightlifting, particularly deadlifts, tend to lead companies that outperform their non-lifting counterparts on the S&P 500 [^][^][^][^]. The Deadlift Index aims to offer a novel approach to market analysis by correlating CEO fitness with corporate performance, thereby providing investors with new metrics to consider [^][^]. Furthermore, unlike traditional indices that often update at the end of a trading day, this index offers real-time updates [^][^].
6. How do the inflation baskets of the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) and AIER's Everyday Price Index (EPI) differ, and which is a better leading indicator for the Deadlift Index?
| CPI Largest Component | Housing [^][^] |
|---|---|
| EPI Primary Focus | Frequently purchased goods and services, not easily postponed or forgone [^][^][^][^] |
| Deadlift Index Holdings (as of May 8, 2026) | Amazon, NVIDIA, Apple, Goldman Sachs, Microsoft [^] |
The official Consumer Price Index (CPI) and AIER's Everyday Price Index (EPI) utilize distinct consumer spending baskets. The CPI measures a broad range of categories, including significant components like housing, alongside food and beverages, transportation, medical care, apparel, recreation, and education [^][^]. In contrast, the EPI focuses on a narrower set of goods and services that are purchased frequently, typically monthly, and are essential daily expenses that cannot be easily postponed [^][^][^][^]. The EPI notably excludes housing costs, as these are often fixed contractually, instead incorporating items such as food, household fuels and utilities, motor fuel, prescription drugs, telephone services, and certain personal care products [^][^].
The EPI's design aims to reflect price changes most relevant to families' day-to-day financial planning and their perceived inflation [^] . Due to its greater emphasis on energy and food items, the EPI typically displays more price volatility than the broader CPI [^][^][^]. Separately, the Deadlift Index tracks the financial performance of companies led by CEOs who prioritize health and fitness, based on research suggesting that weightlifting CEOs often outperform their non-lifting counterparts on the S&P 500 [^][^]. As of May 8, 2026, its holdings include prominent companies such as Amazon, NVIDIA, Apple, Goldman Sachs, and Microsoft [^].
Research lacks data to link CPI or EPI to the Deadlift Index. Based on the provided research, there is insufficient information to determine whether the CPI or the EPI serves as a better leading indicator for the Deadlift Index.
7. What specific methodologies and data sources does Truflation use to calculate the Deadlift Index, and what are the accessibility limitations for its real-time data?
| Calculation Frequency | Daily (using real-time feeds from NYSE/NASDAQ) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Methodology Steps | 7 steps [^][^] |
| Data Partners | Over 100 data partners [^][^] |
The Truflation Deadlift Index daily measures CEO performance via real-time data. This index, known as TruDead, is computed daily by incorporating real-time data feeds sourced from NYSE/NASDAQ [^][^][^]. The foundation of this index is Pieter Levels' research, which suggests that CEOs who participate in deadlifting activities tend to achieve superior performance compared to their non-lifting counterparts listed on the S&P 500 benchmark [^][^][^].
Truflation's indices use a detailed 7-step methodology with over 100 partners. The company implements a comprehensive general methodology across all its indices, which encompasses seven distinct steps and relies on contributions from more than 100 data partners [^][^]. This process incorporates a 24-hour delay specifically for quality assurance checks and establishes January 1, 2010, as its foundational base date [^][^].
Real-time Deadlift Index data faces specific accessibility limitations for users. Despite the index's utilization of real-time data, there are notable restrictions concerning its accessibility [^][^]. To obtain historical or comprehensive data through Truflation's API, users are required to purchase an access key [^][^]. Additionally, viewing the most recent 30 days of Deadlift Index data necessitates logging in to the marketplace [^][^].
8. What geopolitical scenarios involving US-Iran relations and OPEC+ production could significantly impact energy prices and the Deadlift Index before May 2026?
| US-Iran Conflict Start Date | February 2026 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Brent Crude Price | $107.50 to $110 per barrel [^][^][^] |
| Strait of Hormuz Global Flow | 27% of crude oil and 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
The US-Iran conflict significantly disrupts global energy markets, commencing in February 2026 and maintaining an unstable ceasefire as of May 2026 [^] [^] . Iran has closed and armed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for 27% of global crude oil and 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This near-total blockade, compounded by approximately $60 billion in damages to oil infrastructure from attacks, has severely restricted global supply and introduced a substantial geopolitical risk premium [^][^]. Brent crude is currently trading between $107.50 and $110 per barrel, with WTI crude around $101.40 per barrel, and experts anticipate further increases if disruptions persist [^][^][^].
OPEC+ production dynamics further influence global energy prices, alongside geopolitical tensions. In April 2026, OPEC oil production reached a two-decade low, partly attributable to the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [^]. Despite this, OPEC+ agreed in May to increase oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day to address the ongoing energy crisis [^]. The United Arab Emirates formally exited the OPEC+ alliance on May 1, 2026, seeking greater flexibility in its production strategy [^]. While the UAE's departure has a limited short-term impact due to broader supply constraints, its long-term plan to significantly increase capacity by 2027 introduces future market uncertainty [^].
Escalating energy prices affect various economic sectors and inflation, leading to higher operating costs. These rising energy costs directly increase expenses for transportation, manufacturing, and supply chains across nearly all economic sectors [^]. Additionally, surging energy prices contribute to overall inflation, which subsequently diminishes consumer purchasing power and dampens demand for various goods and services [^]. Although these economic conditions are relevant to market performance, the provided research does not establish a direct causal link between these energy price impacts and the outperformance aspect of the "Deadlift Index" [^][^][^][^][^][^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
On Kalshi’s “Truflation Deadlift Index” market for 2026-05-12, the “Yes” outcome is defined as the May 12, 2026 index being above 405.89 [^] . The Truflation Deadlift Index is described by Truflation as a daily tick-rate index and is authored by Pieter Levels & Truflation [^]. Truflation introduced the Deadlift Index framework, based on Pieter Levels’ research, in an announcement blog post dated 23 Oct 2024 [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 20, 2026
- Closes: May 12, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: On Kalshi’s “Truflation Deadlift Index” market for 2026-05-12, the “Yes” outcome is defined as the May 12, 2026 index being above 405.89 [^] .
- Trigger: The Truflation Deadlift Index is described by Truflation as a daily tick-rate index and is authored by Pieter Levels & Truflation [^] .
- Trigger: Truflation introduced the Deadlift Index framework, based on Pieter Levels’ research, in an announcement blog post dated 23 Oct 2024 [^] .
- Trigger: Separately, reporting on May 11, 2026 indicated the SEC extended review of over 20 proposed prediction market ETFs with a delayed clearance timeline for multiple issuers, with a reported delay/target date of May 18 [^] [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUFDEAD-26MAY11-T440.89: NO (May 11, 2026)
- KXTRUFDEAD-26MAY11-T438.39: NO (May 11, 2026)
- KXTRUFDEAD-26MAY11-T435.89: NO (May 11, 2026)
- KXTRUFDEAD-26MAY11-T433.39: NO (May 11, 2026)
- KXTRUFDEAD-26MAY11-T430.89: NO (May 11, 2026)
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