Clear+ members in Q2
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Clear+ members in Q2 2026 to be above 8.2 million, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Historical Q2 data reveals decelerating Active CLEAR+ member net additions.
- Macro headwinds and analyst concerns suggest Q2 2026 growth may not sustain.
- Q1 2026 active members and Q2 2025 additions project ~8.378 million.
- This projection suggests Q2 2026 members will fall below 8.4 million.
- Clear's B2B segment reported 85% year-over-year bookings growth in Q1 2026.
- Economic factors threaten CLEAR+ member acquisition and retention for Q2 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 8.6 million | 15.0% | 8.7% | Q1 2026 active members and Q2 2025 net additions project approximately 8.378 million, below 8.6 million. |
| Above 8.8 million | 4.0% | 2.3% | Q1 2026 active members and Q2 2025 net additions project approximately 8.378 million, below 8.8 million. |
| Above 8.2 million | 92.0% | 85.9% | Q1 2026 active members were 8.167 million, and Q2 typically sees net additions. |
| Above 8.4 million | 49.0% | 31.6% | Q1 2026 active members and Q2 2025 net additions project approximately 8.378 million, below 8.4 million. |
| Above 8.5 million | 31.0% | 18.6% | Q1 2026 active members and Q2 2025 net additions project approximately 8.378 million, below 8.5 million. |
Current Context
Clear Secure reported 41.0 million total CLEAR members and 8.167 million active CLEAR+ members as of March 31, 2026 [^] [^] [^] . (YOU) 10-Q Quarterly Report May 2026" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. Q2 2026 financial data was not published by June 25, 2026 [^][^][^]. For Q2 2026, the company guided revenue between $268 million and $271 million [^][^]. Total bookings guidance for Q2 is $280 million to $285 million [^][^]. Analysts' Q2 2026 revenue estimates align with company guidance, ranging from $268 million to $271 million [^][^][^].
Strategic initiatives in 2026 include the network-wide rollout of eGates, active in 43 airports as of Q1 2026 [^] [^] [^] . CLEAR Concierge expanded to 32 airports, alongside robust growth in the CLEAR1 enterprise business [^][^][^]. As of June 2026, Clear Secure (NYSE:YOU) carries a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating among analysts [^][^]. The consensus 1-year target price is approximately $60.00 [^]. Recent ratings show a mixed trend, with some firms maintaining "buy" ratings and others adjusting targets after Q1 2026 results [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has traded in a sideways pattern since its inception, establishing a clear range between 87% and 95%. The price began at 90%, tested support at 87%, and now trades near the top of its range at 92%. The resolution condition appears to be whether Clear Secure's Q2 2026 CLEAR+ membership exceeds 8,199,999. This implies a target of 8.2 million members. The price action's stability reflects the market's high confidence that the company will add the roughly 33,000 net new members required to surpass the 8.167 million reported for Q1 2026.
The provided context lacks a specific catalyst to explain the modest fluctuations within this established range, such as the dip to 87% or the subsequent recovery to 92%. The latest fundamental data point remains the Q1 earnings release, which confirmed 8.167 million members as of March 31, 2026. The market appears to be trading on sentiment and pre-existing growth expectations in the absence of new information, as Q2 results were not yet published by June 25, 2026. Total volume of 1,512 contracts suggests moderate but not deep liquidity. The price action indicates a firm market consensus that the company will meet the membership threshold.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves YES if Clear Secure Inc. reports over 8,400,000 active Clear+ members in Q2 2026, otherwise it resolves NO. The outcome will be verified from Fiscal.ai.
The market opened on May 26, 2026, and will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by September 3, 2026, at 6:00 AM EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 8.2 million | $0.93 | $0.09 | 92% |
| Above 8.3 million | $0.77 | $0.30 | 77% |
| Above 8.4 million | $0.51 | $0.53 | 49% |
| Above 8.5 million | $0.29 | $0.77 | 31% |
| Above 8.6 million | $0.21 | $0.83 | 15% |
| Above 8.8 million | $0.07 | $0.96 | 4% |
Market Discussion
Clear Secure reported 8.167 million active CLEAR+ members as of March 31, 2026 [^][^], with a prediction market tracking whether the Q2 2026 number will exceed 8.4 million [^]. The company has not yet released its Q2 2026 financial results as of June 25, 2026, though it provided Q2 guidance for revenue and total bookings [^][^][^]. Investor sentiment for Clear Secure remains positive, with analysts monitoring growth in membership [^][^][^].
4. What level of CLEAR+ member growth is implied by Clear Secure's official Q2 2026 guidance for revenue and total bookings?
| Q2 2026 Revenue Guidance | $268–$271 million [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 Total Bookings Guidance | $280–$285 million [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Q1 2026 Active CLEAR+ Members | 8.167 million [^] |
Clear Secure forecasts substantial revenue and bookings for Q2 2026. The company's official guidance for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 projects revenue to be between $268 million and $271 million. Additionally, total bookings for the same quarter are anticipated to fall within the range of $280 million to $285 million [^][^][^][^][^].
CLEAR does not directly project future CLEAR+ member counts. While the company provides forward-looking financial guidance, it does not issue explicit numerical guidance for quarterly CLEAR+ member counts [^]. Historically, the growth of CLEAR+ members has been identified as a primary driver of bookings [^]. In the preceding quarter, Q1 2026, active CLEAR+ members reached 8.167 million, an increase from 7.616 million in Q4 2025 [^].
Member growth for Q2 2026 cannot be deduced from guidance. The available revenue and bookings guidance for Q2 2026 does not provide sufficient information to determine a specific level of CLEAR+ member growth implied by these financial projections.
5. What does Clear Secure's historical data from 2024 and 2025 reveal about typical Q2 seasonality in CLEAR+ member growth?
| Q2 2024 Net Member Additions | 297,000 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2025 Net Member Additions | 211,000 [^][^] |
| Growth Phase Assessment | Maturing [^] |
Clear Secure experienced a deceleration in Q2 member growth. Historical data indicates a deceleration in the net additions of Active CLEAR+ members during the second quarter. Net additions fell from 297,000 in Q2 2024 to 211,000 in Q2 2025 [^][^]. This decline represents a slowdown in sequential net member acquisition when compared to the prior year.
Analysts interpret this trend as business maturation. Market analysts view this decrease in net member additions as evidence that the core CLEAR+ business is transitioning into a more mature phase of its growth trajectory [^].
6. How might Clear's 2026 strategic initiatives, like the eGates rollout and CLEAR Concierge expansion, impact new member acquisition in Q2 2026?
| Q1 2026 Active CLEAR+ Members | 8.167 million (source: [^][^][^][^][^][^]) |
|---|---|
| Initial CLEAR Concierge Airports | 32 (source: [^]) |
| Q2 2026 Prediction Market Benchmark | 8.3 million to 8.4 million (source: [^][^]) |
Clear's Q2 2026 member acquisition impact remains unquantified due to data gaps. The provided research offers insufficient information to determine how Clear's 2026 strategic initiatives, specifically the eGates rollout and CLEAR Concierge expansion, will impact new member acquisition in Q2 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. While Clear's management views these initiatives as crucial for enhancing member experience, sustaining growth momentum, and increasing retention and Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), the available data does not provide Q2 2026 member counts or initiative-level attribution to estimate their direct impact [^][^]. The only clearly evidenced membership data point within the provided timeframe is 8.167 million Active CLEAR+ Members for Q1 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Initiative-specific data is absent for eGates and Concierge impact. There is insufficient initiative-specific disclosure linking the eGates rollout to new CLEAR+ member acquisition in Q2 2026, with no contemporaneous operational rollout figures provided to connect them to Q2 2026 growth [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Similarly, the evidence lacks Q2 2026-relevant, Concierge-expansion-specific Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and a bridge to Q2 2026 “Clear+ members” growth [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Although CLEAR Concierge expanded in June 2026 to include a variant at Miami International Airport (MIA) open to all travelers, the sources do not include the specific information needed to claim an evidence-based impact on Q2 2026 new member acquisition [^]. Prediction markets for 'Clear+ members in Q2 2026' show fluctuating sentiment, with benchmarks around 8.3 million to 8.4 million active members [^][^].
7. How does the projected Q2 2026 growth of Clear's B2B segment (CLEAR1) compare to its core direct-to-consumer airport enrollment channel?
| CLEAR1 Q1 2026 Bookings Growth | Approximately five times Q1 2025 levels [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Active CLEAR+ Members Q1 2026 | 8.2 million [^][^] |
| Q2 2026 Total Revenue Guidance | $268–$271 million [^][^][^] |
Clear's B2B segment is experiencing significantly higher growth compared to its direct-to-consumer channel. The CLEAR1 segment reported Q1 2026 bookings at approximately five times the levels seen in Q1 2025, indicating rapid scaling for this enterprise-focused identity verification service [^][^]. In contrast, the more mature core direct-to-consumer CLEAR+ channel, which offers airport subscription services, recorded a 13.0% year-over-year growth in Active CLEAR+ members as of Q1 2026, reaching 8.2 million members [^][^].
Q2 2026 guidance projects moderate overall growth, but CLEAR1 specifics are undisclosed. Clear Secure has provided total revenue guidance for Q2 2026 in the range of $268–$271 million, with total bookings projected between $280–$285 million [^][^][^]. However, while CLEAR1 is recognized as a rapidly scaling B2B segment, specific growth projections for this segment for Q2 2026 have not been publicly disclosed [^][^]. For the consumer side, prediction markets are estimating Q2 2026 Active CLEAR+ members to be around 8.3 million to 8.4 million, suggesting moderate continued growth for this channel [^][^][^][^].
The B2B segment's rapid acceleration contrasts with the consumer channel's steady pace. Based on available information, the CLEAR1 segment is positioned for continued significant scaling, as evidenced by its Q1 performance, although specific Q2 2026 forecasts are not available [^][^]. In contrast, the core direct-to-consumer CLEAR+ channel is anticipated to demonstrate moderate growth in Q2 2026, consistent with its mature status and indicated by prediction market estimates [^][^][^][^]. This suggests a divergence in growth trajectories, with CLEAR1 significantly outperforming CLEAR+ in terms of expansion speed.
8. What potential headwinds, such as changes in air travel demand or competition from TSA PreCheck, could affect CLEAR+ member acquisition and churn rates in Q2 2026?
| Q2 2026 Projected Revenue | $268–271 million [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 Total Bookings | $280–285 million [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Global Air Travel Demand Growth Forecast | 2.1% [^][^][^][^][^] |
Economic factors threaten CLEAR+ member acquisition and retention. Potential headwinds affecting CLEAR+ member acquisition and churn rates in Q2 2026 include rising airfares, inflationary pressures, and a forecasted slowing of global air travel demand growth to 2.1% [^][^][^][^][^]. These broader economic conditions increase consumer price sensitivity, posing a potential risk to the retention of premium-priced discretionary services such as CLEAR+ [^][^][^][^][^].
Competition from PreCheck exists, but CLEAR+ projects growth. The dynamic between CLEAR+ and TSA PreCheck represents another significant factor [^][^][^][^]. While these services can be used concurrently, budget-conscious consumers are increasingly scrutinizing the value proposition of the higher-priced CLEAR+ service against the lower-cost, broader-reach TSA PreCheck, especially amid rising overall costs [^][^][^][^]. Despite these potential market challenges, Clear Secure has issued Q2 2026 revenue projections of $268–271 million and total bookings forecasts of $280–285 million. These figures represent year-over-year growth of 22.8% and 26.7% respectively at their midpoints, signaling management's confidence in sustaining growth momentum [^][^][^][^][^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
As of March 31, 2026, Clear Secure, Inc. (CLEAR) reported 8.167 million Active CLEAR+ Members and 41.0 million Total CLEAR Members [^][^][^]. A prediction market on Coinbase tracks Q2 2026 CLEAR+ membership levels, with a target threshold of 8.4 million active members; this market is set to expire on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM GMT+0 [^].
Bullish catalysts for CLEAR include growth in CLEAR1 bookings, the expansion of the CLEAR Concierge service, and ongoing improvements in member retention and acquisition [^] [^] . | BriefGlance" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. Bearish concerns center on the sustainability of double-digit CLEAR+ member growth rates [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 03, 2026
- Closes: September 03, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: As of March 31, 2026, Clear Secure, Inc.
- Trigger: (CLEAR) reported 8.167 million Active CLEAR+ Members and 41.0 million Total CLEAR Members [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: A prediction market on Coinbase tracks Q2 2026 CLEAR+ membership levels, with a target threshold of 8.4 million active members; this market is set to expire on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM GMT+0 [^] .
- Trigger: For Q2 2026, Clear Secure provided guidance for revenue of $268–$271 million, representing 22.8% year-over-year growth at the midpoint [^] [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
