Which bank will take Kraken public before 2027?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing, with Morgan Stanley at 33.1% model probability versus 46.0% market probability. This suggests the market may be overestimating Morgan Stanley's likelihood to take Kraken public before 2027.
1. Executive Verdict
- Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both have strong major tech IPO track records.
- Potential 2026 crypto regulations may influence Kraken's underwriter choice and IPO timing.
- Kraken confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC in November 2025.
- Lead underwriters are often selected months before a tech IPO's confidential filing.
- JPMorgan Chase led U.S. ECM underwriting volume in 2025 with 20% market share.
- Kraken has engaged Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase for financing and IPO discussions.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | 41.0% | 27.9% | Citigroup has broad investment banking capabilities, well-suited for a significant public offering. |
| Goldman Sachs | 39.0% | 26.0% | Goldman Sachs maintains a leading role in investment banking, frequently advising large companies on IPOs. |
| Morgan Stanley | 46.0% | 33.1% | Morgan Stanley often secures lead roles in technology and fintech IPOs, a good fit for Kraken. |
| JPMorgan Chase | 35.0% | 15.0% | JPMorgan Chase provides extensive capital markets expertise for major companies seeking public listings. |
| Bank of America | 43.0% | 30.0% | Bank of America offers comprehensive investment banking services, including IPO underwriting and advisory. |
Current Context
Kraken's IPO target has shifted to 2027. As of June 2026, there is no disclosed bank acting as the underwriter for Kraken's Initial Public Offering (IPO), and the company has officially pushed its market debut target to 2027 [^][^][^]. Despite co-CEO Arjun Sethi stating in April 2026 that the company was "80% ready" to go public, reports from May 2026 indicate the timeline has slid into 2027 [^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has exhibited a modest upward trend, trading within a relatively tight 8-point range between 31.0% and 39.0%. The price held near a support level of 33.0% in late May before experiencing its most notable movement on June 05, 2026. On that day, the implied probability spiked 8.0 percentage points, rising from 31.0% to a new high of 39.0%. The price has since remained stable at this higher level.
The primary driver for the price surge on June 05 is not discernible from the provided context. While Kraken reportedly engaged Goldman Sachs in 2025 for a pre-IPO debt raise, this historical context does not explain the timing of this specific recent movement. The market has seen a total volume of 151 contracts, which suggests relatively light trading activity and perhaps a lack of strong conviction from a broad base of traders. Despite the recent news that Kraken's IPO target has shifted to 2027, the market sentiment for Goldman Sachs has become more positive, with the current 39.0% price indicating it is considered the most likely candidate, though far from a certainty.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Citigroup
📈 June 08, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 38.0% to 46.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not identify any specific social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors that would directly explain an 8.0 percentage point price spike for "Citigroup" on June 08, 2026. Kraken had previously paused its IPO plans in March 2026 due to challenging market conditions, and there was no official confirmation of Citigroup's role as the lead bank before 2027 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Therefore, based on the available information, social media activity appears to be irrelevant to this price movement, as no relevant posts or viral narratives were found around the specified date.
📉 June 03, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 49.0% to 39.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 10.0 percentage point drop in the "Citigroup" outcome was traditional news reports from mid-May 2026 indicating that Kraken's IPO is now expected to slip into 2027 [^]. This news directly impacted the market's "before 2027" condition, significantly lowering the probability of any bank, including Citigroup, taking Kraken public within the specified timeframe. No specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives appeared to cause or accelerate this price movement on June 03, 2026. Therefore, social media was irrelevant to this particular market shift.
Outcome: Goldman Sachs
📈 June 05, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 31.0% to 39.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not contain a discernible primary driver for the 8.0 percentage point spike in the "Goldman Sachs" outcome on June 05, 2026. While Kraken engaged Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase in 2025 for a $1 billion debt raise ahead of a planned IPO [^][^][^], the sources confirm no public mandate for them as lead underwriters [^]. Furthermore, multiple reports in May 2026 indicated that Kraken's IPO plans were sliding toward 2027, rather than 2026 [^][^][^][^], which would logically decrease the probability of any bank taking the company public before 2027. Social media activity was irrelevant as no relevant posts were identified in the provided sources.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to 'Yes' if Bank of America serves as a lead underwriter, book-running manager, or global coordinator for Kraken's initial public offering in the United States before January 1, 2027. This 'Yes' outcome is determined by the announcement of the underwriting relationship, even if the IPO is later shelved, and joint book-running managers qualify. Otherwise, or if Kraken's listing is a direct listing, SPAC merger, secondary offering, or private placement, the market resolves to 'No' and closes by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM EST, or earlier if the underwriting is announced.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | $0.46 | $0.62 | 46% |
| Bank of America | $0.50 | $0.59 | 43% |
| Citigroup | $0.46 | $0.61 | 41% |
| Goldman Sachs | $0.40 | $0.69 | 39% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $0.42 | $0.67 | 35% |
Market Discussion
As of June 2026, media reports indicate that Kraken's IPO plans have likely slipped into 2027, despite the company previously confirmed a confidential S-1 filing in November 2025 and reaffirmed intentions as recently as April 2026 [^][^][^][^]. There is no public information identifying a specific investment bank to take Kraken public, and the company has not officially announced an underwriting syndicate [^][^]. Separately, Kraken is focusing on its "xStocks" tokenized equities framework to provide retail investors with access to IPOs, including a recent launch of tokenized SpaceX shares [^][^][^][^].
5. How do Goldman Sachs' and Morgan Stanley's track records compare for underwriting major tech and crypto IPOs since 2020?
| Kraken IPO probability (Morgan Stanley) | 65% "Yes" (Kalshi, Solflare) [^] |
|---|---|
| Kraken IPO probability (Goldman Sachs) | 60% "Yes" (Kalshi, Solflare) [^] |
| Anthropic IPO lead banks | Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs (Bloomberg) [^] |
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley exhibit strong major tech and crypto IPO underwriting. Goldman Sachs historically led in tech IPOs, a position highlighted by a 2021 CNBC report detailing its leadership in the preceding year [^]. More recently, for a potential Kraken IPO anticipated before 2027, market probabilities on Kalshi and Solflare indicate Morgan Stanley has a slight advantage, with 65% "Yes" compared to Goldman Sachs' 60% "Yes" [^].
Both firms actively compete for major upcoming tech IPO lead roles. They remain top contenders for significant upcoming offerings. For instance, Bloomberg reported that Anthropic selected Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to co-lead its IPO, planned for June 2026 [^]. Further illustrating their competitive prominence, Fortune’s reporting on June 10, 2026, detailed an ongoing "lead left" competition between Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley for both OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs [^].
6. How might potential SEC or CFTC regulations on crypto exchanges in 2026 influence Kraken's choice of underwriter and its IPO timing?
| S-1 Draft Filing Date | Nov 2025 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| IPO Readiness | 80% ready [^][^][^] |
| IPO Probability (before Jan 1, 2027) | 42% [^] |
Kraken has confidentially filed for an IPO, awaiting market conditions. Its parent company, Payward, confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC in November 2025 and considers itself 80% ready for a public offering. The company is currently waiting for favorable market conditions to proceed with its IPO [^][^][^].
Regulatory reforms may significantly influence Kraken's IPO timing and feasibility. Proposed changes to public listing rules in May 2026 by the SEC and CFTC, alongside improved inter-agency coordination, could create a clearer pathway for crypto-native firms like Kraken to enter public markets. These reforms aim to reduce compliance burdens and regulatory risk, potentially making an IPO more feasible for Kraken [^][^][^][^][^].
Underwriter choice and IPO probability remain speculative. Prediction markets indicate varying odds for banks such as Bank of America (74%), Morgan Stanley (65%), and Citigroup (62%) to serve as the lead underwriter for a Kraken IPO before 2027. However, the available research does not specify how potential SEC or CFTC regulations might influence the selection of an underwriter. The overall market probability for Kraken's IPO to occur before January 1, 2027, is currently approximated at 42% [^][^].
7. Based on its November 2025 confidential filing, what is the typical timeline from filing to selecting a lead underwriter for a tech IPO of Kraken's scale?
| Typical underwriter selection | 2 to 6 months prior to confidential filing [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Kraken confidential filing | November 19, 2025 [^][^] |
| Underwriter's role | Essential for registration statement and equity story [^][^][^] |
Lead underwriters are selected months before a tech IPO's confidential filing. For a typical technology Initial Public Offering (IPO), lead underwriters are engaged significantly before the confidential filing, often 2 to 6 months prior to the initial submission to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) [^][^][^]. This early engagement is critical because lead underwriters are essential for preparing the registration statement and developing the company's equity story [^][^][^].
Kraken's underwriter selection would precede its November 2025 confidential filing. Kraken confidentially submitted its draft registration statement on Form S-1 with the SEC on November 19, 2025 [^][^]. Based on these established industry timelines, the selection of a lead underwriter for a tech IPO of Kraken's scale would typically occur before this confidential filing, rather than after [^][^][^].
8. What do league tables for U.S. tech IPO underwriting volume in 2025-2026 reveal about the market share of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase?
| JPMC 2025 US ECM Market Share | 20% [^][^] |
|---|---|
| JPMC Q1 2026 Global Tech IB Fees Market Share | 16.7% [^][^] |
| Goldman Sachs 2025 US ECM Market Share | 13.9% [^][^] |
JPMorgan Chase topped global tech investment banking fees in Q1 2026. During this period, the firm achieved a 16.7% market share in global technology investment banking fees, thereby outpacing Goldman Sachs [^][^]. Although Goldman Sachs maintained its leadership in technology mergers and acquisitions (M&A), it ranked third in proceeds and second in deal count for Q1 2026 U.S. IPO underwriting. Boutique firms such as BTIG and Cohen & Company led by proceeds in U.S. IPO underwriting during this quarter [^].
9. What existing corporate banking or advisory relationships does Kraken have with potential underwriters like JPMorgan Chase or Bank of America?
| JPMorgan Chase Advisory Status | Advisory relationship concerning a debt raise [^] |
|---|---|
| IPO Underwriting Mandate | No institutions mandated for an IPO underwriting bakeoff as of mid-2025 [^] |
| Adversarial Relationship | Active dispute with JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America regarding Federal Reserve payment infrastructure access [^] |
Kraken has engaged major banks for financing and potential IPO discussions. The company has worked with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase concerning a debt raise, intended to support its growth initiatives [^]. Although some reports have named JPMorgan Chase as a potential underwriter for a traditional initial public offering (IPO), Kraken publicly clarified as of mid-2025 that no specific institutions have been mandated for an IPO underwriting selection process [^].
Kraken is in a dispute with major banks over payment infrastructure access. Beyond these corporate banking engagements, Kraken maintains an active adversarial relationship with prominent financial institutions, specifically JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America. This ongoing dispute, which involves engagement with the Bank Policy Institute, concerns Kraken Financial's access to the Federal Reserve's payment infrastructure [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Kraken (operated by Payward) confidentially submitted a draft Form S-1 registration statement with the U.S. SEC in November 2025 [^][^][^]. However, these efforts were subsequently paused and restarted due to volatile market conditions and fluctuating valuations [^][^][^]. As of June 2026, there is no public confirmation of an investment bank retained to lead Kraken's IPO, and reports indicate the listing timeline has likely slipped into 2027 [^][^][^].
Kraken's valuation has experienced significant fluctuations in 2026, reportedly falling to $13.3 billion in an April 2026 funding round involving Deutsche Börse Group, before later reports indicated the company was seeking capital at a $20 billion valuation [^] [^] [^] . The company is currently prioritizing operational efficiency, including recent staff reductions and the deployment of AI tools [^][^][^]. Co-CEO Arjun Sethi has described the firm as being '80% ready' for an IPO, waiting for favorable market conditions to proceed [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Kraken (operated by Payward) confidentially submitted a draft Form S-1 registration statement with the U.S.
- Trigger: SEC in November 2025 [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: However, these efforts were subsequently paused and restarted due to volatile market conditions and fluctuating valuations [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: As of June 2026, there is no public confirmation of an investment bank retained to lead Kraken's IPO, and reports indicate the listing timeline has likely slipped into 2027 [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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