Clear active clear+ members in 2026
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Clear active CLEAR+ members to be Above 8.4 million in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~24h): Above 8.7 million likelihood saw a significant model-led increase of +10.5pp, flipping its edge.
- The headline model-market edge flipped positively by +2.4pp, accompanied by a +1.0pp confidence score increase.
- Above 8.8 million saw its model-led edge flip, with model probability up +6.0pp.
- Conversely, the market-led edge for Above 8.5 million flipped, as market probability decreased by -3.0pp.
- Active CLEAR+ members likely exceed 8.4 million, driven by eGate expansion and new partnerships.
- Achieving above 8.8 million members faces challenges from the July 1, 2026, price increase.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 8.7 million | 65.0% | 65.7% | Model higher by 0.7pp |
| Above 8.6 million | 66.0% | 66.6% | Model higher by 0.6pp |
| Above 8.5 million | 75.0% | 76.8% | Model higher by 1.8pp |
| Above 9.1 million | 14.0% | 16.4% | Model higher by 2.4pp |
| Above 8.8 million | 39.0% | 53.6% | Model higher by 14.6pp |
Current Context
CLEAR reported strong Q1 2026 financials and significant membership growth. As of March 31, 2026, the company recorded 8.167 million Active CLEAR+ members and 41.0 million total CLEAR members [^][^]. Revenue for Q1 2026 reached $253.0 million, a 19.7% year-over-year increase. Total bookings grew 40.8% year-over-year to $291.7 million, and adjusted EBITDA stood at $80.6 million [^][^].
CLEAR raised full-year guidance and expanded its airport network. For fiscal year 2026, the company increased its free cash flow guidance to at least $465 million, up from at least $440 million [^][^]. Effective July 1, 2026, the annual cost of a CLEAR+ membership rose from $209 to $219, with American Express adjusting its cardholder statement credits to match [^]. CLEAR continued its network-wide rollout of biometric eGates across U.S. airports, with 43 airports having active coverage as of Q1 2026 [^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market is pricing the probability of CLEAR reporting more than 8.4 million Active CLEAR+ members in 2026. The contract has traded in a narrow range between 89.0% and 92.0%, indicating consistently high market confidence in a "YES" resolution. The price opened at 92.0% before settling at 89.0%, where it has remained. The key support and resistance levels are the bounds of this tight trading range.
The market's high probability pricing is anchored by strong fundamental data. As of March 31, 2026, CLEAR reported 8.167 million Active CLEAR+ members, just under the 8.4 million threshold. The company's reported Q1 2026 performance, including a 40.8% year-over-year increase in total bookings, suggests continued growth momentum that would be sufficient to exceed the target. The minor price dip from 92.0% to 89.0% is not explained by the provided context, which is uniformly positive.
Market conviction appears extremely weak. Total volume is exceptionally low, with only two contracts traded over the life of the market. This illiquidity suggests the current price has not been validated by significant capital and may not be a robust indicator of broad market sentiment. While the price implies a near-certainty, the lack of participation means the level is fragile and subject to sharp moves if meaningful volume enters.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 July 11, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 66.0% to 58.0%
Outcome: Above 8.7 million
What happened: No public report confirms an 8.0 percentage point drop in active CLEAR+ members on July 11, 2026 [^]. However, the prediction market's price movement likely stemmed from the Clear+ membership fee increase, which became effective July 1, 2026, raising the annual cost from $209 to $219 [^][^]. This recent price hike likely led market participants to anticipate slower future membership growth or potential churn, thereby reducing the perceived probability of reaching "Above 8.7 million" active members in 2026. Social media activity was not a primary driver, as no relevant posts or viral narratives are apparent in the provided information.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves "Yes" if Clear Secure Inc. reports more than 8,800,000 active Clear+ members in 2026, and "No" if they report 8,800,000 or fewer. The outcome is verified by Fiscal.ai. Trading opens on June 23, 2026, and the market closes after the outcome occurs (or by March 31, 2028, at 1:00 AM EDT), with a projected payout 30 minutes after closing; the market can also expire early if the event occurs.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 8.4 million | $0.92 | $0.14 | 89% |
| Above 8.5 million | $0.83 | $0.24 | 75% |
| Above 8.6 million | $0.77 | $0.31 | 66% |
| Above 8.7 million | $0.70 | $0.36 | 65% |
| Above 8.8 million | $0.43 | $0.65 | 39% |
| Above 8.9 million | $0.29 | $0.78 | 35% |
| Above 9 million | $0.19 | $0.82 | 25% |
| Above 9.1 million | $0.14 | $0.93 | 14% |
Market Discussion
As of March 31, 2026, Clear Secure, Inc. reported 8.167 million active CLEAR+ members, a key performance indicator tracked by traders on social media and prediction platforms [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets, including one hosted on Coinbase, have featured contracts specifically tracking active CLEAR+ members, with benchmarks such as 'above 8.4 million' for Q2 2026 results [^].
5. How might the July 1, 2026, price increase for CLEAR+ and the ongoing eGate airport expansion impact member churn and acquisition rates through year-end 2026?
| New CLEAR+ Annual Price | $219 (effective July 1, 2026) [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Projected 2026 Members | Over 8.4 million [^][^] |
| eGate Coverage Target Q2 2026 | Exceed 80% [^][^][^] |
CLEAR+ will increase its annual membership price, potentially impacting churn. Effective July 1, 2026, the annual cost for a standard CLEAR+ membership will rise from $209 to $219 [^][^][^][^][^]. This price adjustment could lead to increased member churn, as some individuals may perceive a reduced value for the service. Market sentiment suggests that such price hikes often prompt consumers to re-evaluate their subscriptions, with investors closely monitoring the impact on sales [^][^][^].
eGate expansion and strategic partnerships aim to mitigate churn. To counteract potential churn and support continued growth, CLEAR has prioritized the expansion of eGates, which covered over 50% of the network as of Q1 2026 and are projected to exceed 80% by the end of Q2 2026 [^][^][^]. This expansion is intended to enhance throughput, improve the member experience, drive higher Net Promoter Scores, and ultimately boost both member retention and acquisition [^][^][^]. Additionally, strategic partnerships, such as American Express credits that align with the price increase, are in place to help mitigate churn [^].
Despite price concerns, prediction markets forecast continued membership growth. These markets currently project overall growth for CLEAR+, suggesting active members will likely exceed 8.4 million in 2026 [^][^]. This indicates an expectation of continued expansion for the service throughout the year, despite the price adjustment.
6. Following the July 2026 price hike, how does the value proposition of CLEAR+ compare to TSA PreCheck in terms of cost, convenience, and network size for frequent travelers?
| CLEAR+ Annual Membership | $219 (as of July 1, 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| TSA PreCheck 5-Year Membership | $78-$85 [^][^] |
| CLEAR+ Expedites | ID verification [^][^] |
CLEAR+ significantly costs more than TSA PreCheck after its 2026 price hike. Effective July 1, 2026, the annual membership fee for CLEAR+ increased from $209 to $219 [^][^][^]. This makes it substantially more expensive compared to TSA PreCheck, which has a five-year membership fee ranging from approximately $78 to $85 [^][^]. However, some premium credit cards have adjusted their annual statement credits to align with the new $219 fee, helping to mitigate the higher cost for members [^].
CLEAR+ and TSA PreCheck offer distinct airport security benefits. CLEAR+ expedites the initial identity verification step at security checkpoints [^][^]. In contrast, TSA PreCheck streamlines the physical screening process by allowing travelers to keep shoes, laptops, and liquids within their carry-on bags [^][^]. Furthermore, TSA PreCheck boasts a much wider availability, operating at a significantly larger number of U.S. airports than CLEAR+, providing broader utility for most travelers [^][^][^].
Combining both services offers optimal efficiency for frequent travelers. For those who travel frequently, the most effective strategy in 2026 often involves utilizing both CLEAR+ and TSA PreCheck simultaneously [^][^]. This dual approach addresses different points of friction in airport security, thereby providing comprehensive efficiency and flexibility, which is particularly beneficial when one service lane is congested [^][^].
7. What has been the quarter-over-quarter growth trend for Active CLEAR+ Members from 2024 through Q1 2026, based on Clear Secure's historical SEC filings?
| Active CLEAR+ Members Q1 2024 | 6,798 thousand [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Active CLEAR+ Members Q1 2026 | 8,167 thousand [^][^] |
| Total increase (Q1 2024 to Q1 2026) | 1,369 thousand members [^][^] |
Clear Secure's Active CLEAR+ Members generally increased from Q1 2024 through Q1 2025. The number of Active CLEAR+ Members began at 6,798 thousand in Q1 2024, exhibiting a steady rise to 7,095 thousand in Q2 2024, 7,150 thousand in Q3 2024, and 7,187 thousand in Q4 2024 [^][^]. This upward trajectory continued into Q1 2025, reaching a total of 7,229 thousand members [^][^].
A brief decline in Q2 2025 preceded a strong recovery. A minor decrease was observed in Q2 2025, with the member count at 7,227 thousand [^][^]. Following this slight dip, Active CLEAR+ Members resumed their upward path, increasing to 7,399 thousand in Q3 2025 and further to 7,616 thousand in Q4 2025 [^][^]. The period concluded with the highest reported figure of 8,167 thousand Active CLEAR+ Members in Q1 2026, demonstrating an overall increase of 1,369 thousand members from Q1 2024 to Q1 2026 [^][^].
8. Based on the Q1 2026 earnings call, what is Clear Secure's official guidance on member retention and total bookings growth for the full year 2026?
| Full-year 2026 total bookings growth guidance | Not issued (Q1 2026 earnings call) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Full-year 2026 member retention guidance | Not issued (Q1 2026 earnings call) [^][^][^] |
| Full-year 2026 Free Cash Flow guidance | At least $465M (increased) [^][^][^] |
Clear Secure did not issue specific full-year 2026 guidance for key metrics. During its Q1 2026 earnings call, the company did not provide specific numerical guidance for either full-year 2026 total bookings growth or member retention. While financial guidance was offered for Q2 2026, the company opted not to publish explicit numerical targets for these particular performance indicators for the entire year [^][^][^].
However, Clear Secure did update other full-year financial projections. The company increased its full-year 2026 Free Cash Flow guidance to at least $465 million [^][^][^]. Management also qualitatively observed that ongoing investments aimed at enhancing the member experience are contributing to improvements in retention for CLEAR Plus members. This observation was presented as a general trend rather than a specific numerical target or forecast [^][^][^].
9. What new or expanded corporate and airline partnerships did Clear Secure launch in 2026, and what is their projected impact on member acquisition for the remainder of the year?
| Active CLEAR+ Members (Q1 2026) | 8.2 million [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Year-over-year increase (Q1 2026) | 13% [^][^][^][^] |
| Key Partnerships (2026) | Expedia, Samsung, General Dynamics Information Technology (GDIT) [^][^][^][^] |
Clear Secure launched several strategic partnerships in 2026 to expand its service offerings. These collaborations include an integration with Expedia, bringing CLEAR+ and CLEAR Concierge into the travel booking process [^][^]. Clear Secure also partnered with Samsung to introduce Samsung ID, facilitating digital identity verification [^]. Additionally, a strategic alliance was formed with General Dynamics Information Technology (GDIT) to integrate the CLEAR1 identity platform into federal healthcare and civilian applications [^].
Membership growth significantly increased, with positive projections for year-end. In Q1 2026, Clear Secure reported 8.2 million active CLEAR+ members, representing a 13% increase year-over-year [^][^][^][^]. The company anticipates this membership growth will persist into the second half of the year, supported by investments in member experience, operational leverage, and effective acquisition and retention strategies [^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets are closely monitoring Q2 2026 active CLEAR+ member counts, identifying exceeding 8.4 million members as a key indicator for the company's growth trajectory [^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Clear Secure (YOU) reported 8.167 million active CLEAR+ members and 40.986 million total CLEAR members as of March 31, 2026 [^] . A prediction market on Coinbase uses an 8.4 million threshold for a 'Yes' outcome regarding active CLEAR+ members for Q2 2026, with a market closing date of September 3, 2026 [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 31, 2028
- Closes: March 31, 2028
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Clear Secure (YOU) reported 8.167 million active CLEAR+ members and 40.986 million total CLEAR members as of March 31, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: A prediction market on Coinbase uses an 8.4 million threshold for a 'Yes' outcome regarding active CLEAR+ members for Q2 2026, with a market closing date of September 3, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Bullish catalysts include the expansion of CLEAR1 (B2B) and Concierge services, strong cash generation, and margin expansion [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Clear Secure's 2026 guidance includes Q2 revenue projections of $268–271 million [^] [^] and full-year 2026 Free Cash Flow guidance of at least $465 million [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
