First Solar Gigawatts sold in fiscal 2026
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully higher odds (67.2% vs 0.0% market) for First Solar's 2026 module volume sold to be Above 16.6 GW, driven by the company's official fiscal 2026 guidance ranging from 17.0 GW to 18.2 GW.
1. Executive Verdict
- First Solar's 2026 guidance projects module sales above 17.0 GW.
- The mean of company projections positions volume above 17.4 GW.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 17.4 GW | 58.0% | 67.0% | First Solar's 2026 guidance forecasts module sales from 17.0 GW to 18.2 GW. |
| Above 17.8 GW | 26.0% | 33.0% | First Solar's 2026 guidance forecasts module sales from 17.0 GW to 18.2 GW. |
| Above 17.6 GW | 40.0% | 50.0% | First Solar's 2026 guidance forecasts module sales from 17.0 GW to 18.2 GW. |
| Above 18.2 GW | 6.0% | 5.0% | First Solar's 2026 guidance forecasts module sales from 17.0 GW to 18.2 GW. |
| Above 16.6 GW | 0.0% | 67.2% | First Solar's 2026 guidance forecasts module sales from 17.0 GW to 18.2 GW. |
Current Context
First Solar projects 17.0 GW to 18.2 GW in 2026 sales. This range represents the company's full-year 2026 guidance for module volume [^][^][^][^][^]. In Q1 2026, First Solar sold 3.8 GW of modules, achieving record quarterly sales of $1.04 billion [^][^][^][^][^]. As of March 31, 2026, the company reported a contracted backlog of 47.9 GW, with an aggregate transaction price of $14.4 billion, extending through 2030 [^][^][^][^][^].
Financial guidance shows strong profit, despite policy uncertainties. Key financial guidance for FY 2026 includes net sales of $4.9 billion–$5.2 billion, gross profit of $2.4 billion–$2.6 billion, and Adjusted EBITDA of $2.6 billion–$2.8 billion [^][^]. Wall Street sentiment remains generally bullish, with a strong consensus "Buy" rating [^][^][^]. However, analysts noted a weak sales forecast earlier in 2026 due to U.S. policy uncertainty and tariff pressures, estimating a $125 million–$135 million impact [^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The contract tracking First Solar's 2026 module sales has priced in a high probability of the company exceeding 16.6 GW. The market opened with an 86.0% probability of a "YES" outcome and quickly moved to its current level of 92.0%. This price action directly reflects the company's official guidance. First Solar's full-year 2026 sales forecast is a range of 17.0 GW to 18.2 GW, with the low end of that range already above the market's resolution threshold.
The upward trend from 86.0% to 92.0% establishes these points as initial support and current resistance. Market sentiment, as reflected by the price, is strongly aligned with the company's own projections. However, the market has seen zero volume traded. This lack of activity suggests the current price is a theoretical assessment based on public data rather than a level established by active buying and selling. The conviction implied by the 92.0% price has not been tested by any flow of capital.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves "Yes" if First Solar Inc. reports a module volume sold above 17.6 GW TWh in its fiscal 2026 full fiscal year or Q4 earnings release, as verified by Fiscal.ai. It resolves "No" if the reported volume is 17.6 GW TWh or less. The market closes by May 2, 2027, at 1:00 am EDT, or earlier if the event occurs, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing, and insider trading is prohibited.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 17.4 GW | $0.61 | $0.42 | 58% |
| Above 17.6 GW | $0.43 | $0.58 | 40% |
| Above 17.8 GW | $0.30 | $0.71 | 26% |
| Above 18.2 GW | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Above 16.6 GW | $0.94 | $0.07 | 0% |
| Above 16.8 GW | $0.89 | $0.12 | 0% |
| Above 17 GW | $0.82 | $0.19 | 0% |
| Above 17.2 GW | $0.71 | $0.30 | 0% |
| Above 18 GW | $0.15 | $0.86 | 0% |
Market Discussion
First Solar has consistently provided official guidance for fiscal year 2026 volume sold in the range of 17.0 GW to 18.2 GW [^][^][^][^][^]. This guidance was reaffirmed in April 2026 during the first quarter 2026 earnings report, and it includes an expected U.S. component of 12.6 GW to 13.1 GW [^][^][^].
4. How might potential new U.S. tariffs on Chinese solar imports in H2 2026 affect First Solar's ability to meet its sales targets?
| 2026 Sales Volume Guidance | 17.0 GW to 18.2 GW (fiscal 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Estimated Tariff Impacts | $155 million to $175 million (2026 financial guidance) [^][^][^] |
| Ethiopia Circumvention Inquiry Determination | Around Dec. 10, 2026 (preliminary determination) [^] |
First Solar's 2026 sales guidance incorporates existing tariff impacts. The company has provided fiscal 2026 sales volume guidance ranging from 17.0 GW to 18.2 GW [^][^][^]. Within its 2026 financial guidance, First Solar has already factored in an estimated $155 million to $175 million in tariff impacts, which primarily relate to imported components [^][^][^].
Trade policy uncertainties influence First Solar's cautious booking strategy. First Solar management has adopted a cautious stance toward new U.S. bookings due to ongoing policy and trade uncertainty [^][^][^]. This includes ongoing investigations into foreign entity of concern (FEOC) rules and other potential trade enforcement actions. An example of this evolving landscape is the U.S. Department of Commerce's circumvention inquiry into solar imports from Ethiopia, initiated on July 17, 2026, a petition that First Solar supported [^]. A preliminary determination for this inquiry is anticipated around December 10, 2026 [^]. Such developments contribute to market volatility and could impact First Solar's ability to meet its sales targets through its cautious booking strategies [^][^][^].
Information is insufficient to predict direct impacts from new Chinese tariffs. The available research does not contain specific details to describe how potential new U.S. tariffs on Chinese solar imports, if implemented in the second half of 2026, might specifically affect First Solar's ability to meet its sales targets.
5. How does First Solar's contracted backlog for 2026 delivery compare to that of a major competitor like Canadian Solar in terms of volume and average selling price (ASP)?
| First Solar 2026 Module Sales Projection | 17.0 GW to 18.2 GW [^][^] |
|---|---|
| First Solar Q1 2026 U.S. Module ASP | Approximately $0.34/W [^][^][^] |
| First Solar Contracted Backlog (through 2030) | 47.9 GW, or $14.4 billion [^][^][^] |
First Solar projects significant 2026 module sales and substantial backlog. The company anticipates its 2026 module sales volume will range between 17.0 GW and 18.2 GW [^][^]. For the first quarter of 2026, First Solar’s U.S. module bookings achieved an average selling price (ASP) of approximately $0.34/W, while its India module sales recorded an ASP of about $0.20/W [^][^][^]. As of March 31, 2026, First Solar reported a robust contracted backlog of 47.9 GW, representing an aggregate transaction price of $14.4 billion for deliveries extending through 2030 [^][^][^].
Canadian Solar's reporting prevents a direct module backlog comparison for 2026. Canadian Solar’s reported contracted backlog primarily focuses on its battery storage business (e-STORAGE), which totaled $3.6 billion as of March 13, 2026 [^][^][^]. Unlike First Solar, Canadian Solar does not provide a comparable aggregate multi-GW module backlog [^][^][^]. Therefore, a direct comparison of contracted module backlog volume and average selling price specifically for 2026 deliveries between First Solar and Canadian Solar cannot be fully established from the available information.
6. Based on Q1 2026 results, what quarterly sales volume does First Solar need through year-end to reach the high end of its 18.2 GW guidance?
| 2026 Full-Year Module Volume Guidance | 17.0 GW to 18.2 GW [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Module Volume Sold | 3.8 GW [^][^][^] |
| Avg. Module Volume Needed Per Quarter (Q2-Q4 2026) | 4.8 GW [^][^] |
First Solar projects full-year 2026 module sales between 17.0 GW and 18.2 GW. The company has provided guidance anticipating total module volume sold to fall within this range for the full 2026 fiscal year [^][^][^]. During the first quarter of 2026, First Solar reported that it sold 3.8 GW of modules [^][^][^].
Achieving the high end of guidance requires substantial sales over three quarters. To reach the upper end of its 2026 guidance at 18.2 GW, First Solar must sell a combined 14.4 GW of modules across the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2026. This target necessitates an average quarterly sales volume of 4.8 GW for the remainder of the year [^][^].
7. What is the production ramp-up schedule for First Solar's new manufacturing plants, and how could delays impact total module availability for 2026?
| South Carolina Facility Operations Start | Second half of 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Module Sales Volume Guidance | 17.0 GW to 18.2 GW [^][^][^] |
| Key Strategy for US Production | Onshoring module assembly to lower tariff exposure and optimize Section 45X tax credit outcomes [^][^][^][^] |
First Solar's 2026 capacity hinges on its South Carolina finishing facility. This crucial facility is slated to begin operations in the second half of 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Its development is central to First Solar's strategy of onshoring module assembly, aimed at reducing exposure to tariffs and optimizing the benefits from Section 45X tax credits [^][^][^][^].
Delays at this facility threaten First Solar's 2026 sales targets. First Solar's official guidance for fiscal 2026 module sales volume ranges from 17.0 GW to 18.2 GW [^][^][^]. However, delays in the South Carolina facility's ramp-up or further adverse policy and tariff developments could negatively impact the company's ability to achieve the lower end of this 17.0 GW sales guidance [^][^][^]. The company's competitiveness and profitability are highly dependent on successfully transitioning production to U.S.-based facilities [^][^][^].
Broader external factors also limit 2026 module availability and sales. Beyond manufacturing ramp-ups, total module availability and sales for 2026 are constrained by issues such as U.S. permitting delays and uncertainty in trade policy, including Section 232 tariffs [^][^][^]. Furthermore, reduced demand for Series 6 modules produced in Southeast Asia has led to decreased utilization of those facilities [^][^][^].
8. How does the module efficiency and degradation rate of First Solar's Series 7 panels compare to key competitors' 2026 offerings, like JinkoSolar's TOPCon panels?
| First Solar Series 7 Efficiency | Up to 19.7% [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| JinkoSolar Tiger Neo 5.0 Efficiency | Up to 25.91% [^][^][^] |
| First Solar Series 7 Annual Degradation | 0.3% (or as low as 0.1% for advanced variants) [^][^][^][^][^] |
First Solar's Series 7 panels offer competitive efficiency and low degradation. The company's Series 7 modules (TR1/FT1) achieve module efficiencies of up to 19.7% [^][^][^][^][^]. These modules come with a warranted annual degradation rate of 0.3%, with advanced variants incorporating CuRe technology further reducing the warranted annual degradation rate to as low as 0.1% [^][^][^][^][^]. First Solar projects its fiscal year 2026 module volume sold to be between 17.0 GW and 18.2 GW [^][^][^][^].
JinkoSolar's 2026 offerings boast higher efficiency but similar degradation. In comparison, JinkoSolar's 2026 Tiger Neo 5.0 TOPCon modules demonstrate higher peak efficiencies, reaching up to 25.91% [^][^][^]. These JinkoSolar modules are specified with a first-year degradation limit of <=1% and an annual linear degradation rate of 0.35% [^][^][^]. This indicates that JinkoSolar provides higher peak efficiency, while First Solar maintains a competitive degradation profile, particularly with its advanced Series 7 variants [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
First Solar provided fiscal 2026 guidance with expected volume sold between 17.0 GW and 18.2 GW [^] [^] [^] . (FSLR) 8-K Earnings Release - Apr 2026" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^]. The company forecasts net sales for the year to range from $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion and Adjusted EBITDA to be $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion [^][^]. Section 45X tax credits are projected between $2.10 billion and $2.19 billion for fiscal 2026 [^][^].
Key market catalysts for 2026 include U.S. solar protectionist policies, Section 232 tariff investigations, and ongoing demand for domestic content, with critical regulatory decisions anticipated around mid-2026 [^][^]. The bullish outlook for First Solar is driven by a strong backlog of 47.9 GW through 2030, competitive advantages in domestic manufacturing, and potential benefits from tariffs [^][^][^]. Conversely, the bearish case centers on policy risk, margin pressure due to global competition, and the potential for polysilicon oversupply [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 02, 2027
- Closes: May 02, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: First Solar provided fiscal 2026 guidance with expected volume sold between 17.0 GW and 18.2 GW [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The company forecasts net sales for the year to range from $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion and Adjusted EBITDA to be $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Section 45X tax credits are projected between $2.10 billion and $2.19 billion for fiscal 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Key market catalysts for 2026 include U.S.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
