Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Walmart US comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 2027 to be Above 3%, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~24h): Model conviction for Above 3% growth decreased by 8.7pp, widening the market edge, model-led.
- Model-led increases for growth Above 4% (+4.0pp) and Above 3.5% (+3.1pp) compressed the edge.
- Overall confidence score decreased by 1.0pp, with the market edge widening by 3.7pp.
- Growth above 4.0% is challenged by increased analyst caution since early July 2026.
- Achieving 4.5% or more appears difficult amid declining consumer confidence between May and July 2026.
- Comparable sales growth above 3.5% remains probable, partly due to Walmart's e-commerce strength.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3% | 93.0% | 87.6% | Analyst consensus for Q2 comparable sales growth is 4.0%. |
| Above 5.5% | 13.0% | 7.5% | Achieving 5.5% comparable sales growth substantially exceeds the 4.0% consensus and analyst caution. |
| Above 5% | 22.0% | 12.9% | Exceeding the 4.0% analyst consensus by 5.0% is less probable given expressed analyst caution. |
| Above 4.5% | 36.0% | 24.8% | Analyst consensus is 4.0%; cautious sentiment makes exceeding 4.5% comparable sales growth challenging. |
| Above 3.5% | 85.0% | 75.1% | Analyst consensus for Q2 comparable sales growth is 4.0%. |
Current Context
Walmart's Q2 FY2027 comparable sales growth is not yet released. As of July 10, 2026, Walmart has not reported its U.S. comparable sales growth ex-fuel for Q2 FY2027 [^]. The company's Q2 FY2027 financial results are scheduled for release on August 20, 2026 [^][^][^]. The most recent reported quarter in available evidence is Q1 FY2027 [^].
Prediction markets are tracking Walmart's Q2 comparable sales growth. Platforms like Kalshi offer contracts on Walmart's U.S. comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) for Q2 FY2027, with specific interest in whether growth exceeds 4.0% [^]. For historical context, Walmart's U.S. comparable sales growth ex-fuel for Q2 FY2026 was 4.60% [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has maintained a stable sideways trend, with the price holding consistently around the 93.0% level since trading began. The primary price channel appears to be between 93.0% and 94.0%. Total volume traded is low at 437 contracts, indicating limited participation and conviction. The market's stability suggests a strong consensus that the outcome will be YES.
The chart shows one significant price movement: a sharp drop from 94.0% to 6.0% on July 1, 2026. However, this 88 percentage point decline occurred on zero volume. The provided context indicates this was not a market-driven event but rather an artifact related to financial data aggregation. The price promptly returned to its previous level of 93.0% by July 10, confirming the anomalous nature of the drop.
Overall market sentiment is strongly bullish on a YES resolution. The price has been anchored near 93.0% for the duration of trading, treating this level as firm support. The lack of any significant, volume-backed selling pressure implies that market participants have high confidence in the outcome ahead of Walmart's scheduled Q2 FY2027 earnings release.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 July 01, 2026: 88.0pp drop
Price decreased from 94.0% to 6.0%
Outcome: Above 3%
What happened: The reported 88.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market price appears to be primarily an artifact of financial reporting aggregators, unrelated to Walmart's actual Q2 fiscal year 2026 comparable sales results [^][^][^][^]. Walmart U.S. comparable sales (excluding fuel) for Q2 FY2026, which ended August 1, 2025, grew by 4.6%, exceeding the "Above 3%" outcome threshold [^][^][^]. This result was announced on August 21, 2025, well before the July 01, 2026 market date, suggesting the outcome was already favorable [^][^]. No social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors found correlate with a genuine 88.0 percentage point price drop for this market on July 01, 2026, and social media activity was irrelevant to this specific event.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Contract details not available.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3% | $0.98 | $0.07 | 93% |
| Above 3.5% | $0.90 | $0.15 | 85% |
| Above 4% | $0.68 | $0.37 | 62% |
| Above 4.5% | $0.41 | $0.64 | 36% |
| Above 5% | $0.23 | $0.83 | 22% |
| Above 5.5% | $0.14 | $0.92 | 13% |
Market Discussion
Walmart reported U.S. comparable sales growth (excluding fuel) of 4.1% for Q1 fiscal year 2027, which ended May 1, 2026 [^]. For the second quarter of fiscal year 2027, the company issued guidance expecting net sales to grow 4% to 5% (constant currency); however, actual U.S.
5. How did Walmart's U.S. comparable sales growth in recent quarters compare to its primary retail rivals, Target and Costco?
| Costco US Comparable Sales Growth | 9.4% (Q3 FY26, ended May 10, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Target Comparable Sales Growth | 5.6% (Q1 2026, ended May 2, 2026) [^][^][^] |
| Walmart US Comparable Sales Growth | 4.1% (Q1 FY27, ended May 1, 2026) [^][^][^] |
Costco led in recent U.S. comparable sales growth among its primary retail rivals. For the third quarter of fiscal 2026 (12 weeks ended May 10, 2026), Costco's U.S. comparable sales growth, adjusted to exclude gasoline and foreign exchange, reached 9.4% [^]. Target reported the second-highest growth, with its comparable sales increasing by 5.6% for Q1 2026, which concluded on May 2, 2026 [^][^][^]. Walmart U.S. recorded comparable sales growth of 4.1% excluding fuel for its Q1 FY27, ending May 1, 2026 [^][^][^].
Target significantly improved, while Walmart anticipates steady future growth. Target's 5.6% comparable sales growth in Q1 2026 [^][^][^] represents a notable recovery from a 2.5% comparable sales decrease experienced in the fourth quarter of 2025 [^]. Looking ahead, Walmart has provided guidance for the second quarter of fiscal 2027, projecting net sales growth between 4% and 5% in constant currency [^][^].
6. What are the consensus analyst estimates for Walmart's Q2 FY2027 comparable sales growth leading into the August 2026 earnings report?
| Q2 FY2027 U.S. Comp Sales Guidance | Not provided by Walmart [^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 FY2027 U.S. Comp Sales Analyst Consensus | Not prominently featured [^][^][^] |
| Q2 FY2027 Net Sales Growth Guidance | 4% to 5% (constant currency) [^] |
Consensus estimates for Walmart's Q2 FY2027 comparable sales are unavailable. Publicly available consensus analyst estimates specifically for Walmart's Q2 FY2027 U.S. comparable sales growth are not prominently featured in major financial news reports [^][^][^]. Furthermore, Walmart did not provide specific public guidance for comparable sales growth for this period [^]. This absence of specific guidance and prominent analyst consensus for Q2 FY2027 U.S. comparable sales growth is notable, especially when compared to Q1 figures, where a 3.85% consensus was observed [^][^][^].
Walmart's Q2 FY2027 earnings report is scheduled for August 20, 2026. Although the company did not issue specific guidance for comparable sales growth, it did provide other financial projections for the quarter [^][^]. Walmart guided for net sales growth of 4% to 5% (constant currency) and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.72 to $0.74 for Q2 FY2027 [^].
7. Which macroeconomic trends, such as consumer confidence and inflation rates between May and July 2026, are most likely to impact Walmart's Q2 sales performance?
| Headline CPI (May 2026) | 4.2% [^] |
|---|---|
| One-year-ahead inflation expectation (June 2026) | 3.7% [^][^] |
| Walmart Q2 FY27 Net Sales Growth Guidance | 4.0% to 5.0% [^][^] |
Macroeconomic conditions posed significant challenges for consumers between May and July 2026. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed to 4.2% in May, largely driven by increased gasoline prices, before moderating slightly in June [^]. Consumer confidence remained fragile, with the Conference Board index at 91.2 in June, while one-year-ahead inflation expectations reached their highest levels since 2023, standing at 3.7% by June 2026 [^][^]. The notable financial strain from rising energy costs disproportionately affected lower-income households, historically influencing Walmart's customer spending patterns [^][^].
Walmart anticipates sales growth despite challenging economic conditions. The company closely monitors key economic indicators such as CPI, job growth, and wage growth to understand consumer behavior [^]. Walmart's management has historically stated that its value proposition allows it to maintain or expand market share during periods of economic uncertainty [^]. For Q2 FY27, which concludes in July 2026, Walmart provided guidance forecasting net sales growth of 4.0% to 5.0% on a constant currency basis. This outlook reflects the company's expectation of continued momentum from its omnichannel strategy amid broader economic challenges [^][^].
8. What do alternative data sources, like foot traffic and credit card transactions, suggest about Walmart's consumer activity during the Q2 FY2027 period?
| Walmart U.S. comparable sales growth Q1 FY2027 | +4.30% [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Transactions ex fuel growth Q1 FY2027 | +3.00% [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Q2 FY2027 US comparable sales growth expectation | 4.0% to 4.2% [^][^] |
Direct Q2 FY2027 alternative data for Walmart is currently unavailable. As of 2026-07-10, direct foot-traffic or credit-card transaction data specific to Walmart's Q2 FY2027 period has not been reported, nor have any Walmart-specific credit-card transaction counts or card-spend trends been identified [^][^][^][^][^][^]. However, the most recent information from Q1 FY2027 indicates that Walmart entered the quarter with positive consumer momentum, serving as the best available proxy for the direction of Q2 [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Walmart experienced robust consumer activity during Q1 FY2027. During this period, Walmart U.S. comparable sales increased by 4.30%, transactions excluding fuel grew by 3.00%, and the average ticket excluding fuel rose by 1.10% [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This data points to strong underlying demand and increased customer visits, with management noting "accelerated customer transactions" and "increased unit volumes" [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Additionally, recent reports highlight Walmart’s implementation of price cuts on groceries and essential items to attract shoppers seeking value [^][^].
Analysts express caution for Walmart's Q2 FY2027 performance. Despite the positive momentum observed in Q1, analysts adopted a more cautious outlook for Walmart’s Q2 FY2027 performance by early July 2026 [^]. Expectations for U.S. comparable sales growth excluding fuel declined to below 4.0%, primarily due to concerns regarding low-income consumers and insights from external credit card data checks [^]. The anticipated deceleration in sales growth for Q2 FY2027 is linked to factors such as the absence of tax refunds, the lapsing of general merchandise price increases, and a general softening in the low-income consumer segment [^]. The market consensus for U.S. comparable sales growth (ex-fuel) in Q2 FY2027 is projected to be in the range of 4.0% to 4.2% [^][^].
9. How have Walmart's e-commerce sales growth rates compared against Amazon's online retail performance in North America over the past year?
| Walmart US eCommerce Growth | roughly 22% year-over-year [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Amazon NA eCommerce Growth | estimated 11% [^][^] |
| Amazon US eCommerce Market Share (2026) | approximately 38.7% to 40.5% [^][^] |
Walmart's recent e-commerce growth significantly exceeds Amazon's in North America. Over the past year through early 2026, Walmart's U.S. e-commerce sales have grown approximately 22% year-over-year, substantially outpacing Amazon's estimated North American e-commerce growth of 11% [^][^]. Despite Walmart's faster growth, Amazon maintains a considerable lead in U.S. e-commerce market share, holding between 38.7% and 40.5% as of 2026. During the same period, Walmart's share increased to approximately 7.1% to 9.2% [^][^].
Direct comparisons using specific financial metrics prove challenging for both companies. Metrics such as Walmart’s U.S. comparable sales growth excluding fuel and Amazon’s North America segment revenue do not always allow for a straightforward assessment of online retail performance [^][^][^][^]. For instance, Walmart reported a U.S. comparable sales growth excluding fuel of 4.60% in Q2 FY2026 [^][^][^][^]. While Amazon's North America segment revenue reached $100.07 billion in Q2 FY2025 and $104.14 billion in Q1 FY2026, these figures represent revenue levels rather than a direct online retail growth rate for the past year, making a precise like-for-like comparison difficult using these particular data points [^][^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Walmart's Q2 FY26 U.S. comparable sales growth, excluding fuel, was 4.6% for the fiscal period ending July 31, 2025 [^], [^]. This 4.6% ex-fuel comparable sales figure indicates solid underlying U.S. demand during Q2, with recent commentary pointing to sustained value-led traffic, price reductions, and digital momentum [^]. This financial data has been public since August 2025 [^].
A future catalyst is Walmart's Q2 FY27 earnings release, scheduled for August 20, 2026 [^] , [^] . Broader retail trends may also influence market perception; fast food same-store sales trends currently average negative 1% [^], and Bloomberg Intelligence analysts project Kroger to experience its weakest sales and profit growth of the year [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 19, 2026
- Closes: September 19, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Walmart's Q2 FY26 U.S.
- Trigger: Comparable sales growth, excluding fuel, was 4.6% for the fiscal period ending July 31, 2025 [^] , [^] .
- Trigger: This 4.6% ex-fuel comparable sales figure indicates solid underlying U.S.
- Trigger: Demand during Q2, with recent commentary pointing to sustained value-led traffic, price reductions, and digital momentum [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
