Toast total locations in Q2
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Toast's total locations in Q2 2026 will be above 176 thousand.
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~24h): The model's probability for "above 180 thousand" surged by +14.0pp, flipping the edge.
- Headline probability for "above 176 thousand" declined by -6.9pp, widening the edge.
- The model's odds for "above 178 thousand" dropped by -3.3pp, also flipping the edge.
- The model also raised odds for "above 182, 184, and 186 thousand," flipping or compressing edges.
- Above 176 thousand appears likely given Q1 2026's strong bookings and stable customer trends.
- Above 178 thousand is supported by new growth products like Toast Drive-Thru.
- Above 180 thousand is plausible from AI-first solutions and new enterprise market expansion.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| above 184 thousand | 7.0% | 7.4% | Model higher by 0.4pp |
| above 178 thousand | 77.0% | 81.9% | Model higher by 4.9pp |
| above 182 thousand | 23.0% | 16.4% | Market higher by 6.6pp |
| above 176 thousand | 98.0% | 91.9% | Market higher by 6.1pp |
| above 180 thousand | 39.0% | 46.0% | Model higher by 7.0pp |
Current Context
Toast's Q2 2026 location data is not yet publicly available. As of March 31, 2026, the close of Q1 2026, Toast reported approximately 171,000 total locations, reflecting a 22% year-over-year increase [^][^][^][^][^]. The company has scheduled its second-quarter 2026 financial results announcement for August 13, 2026, when Q2 location figures are expected to be disclosed [^][^][^].
Strategic initiatives could influence future Toast location growth. In 2026, Toast has focused on an AI-first strategy, introduced Toast IQ Grow for AI-driven marketing, and launched a Toast Drive-Thru system targeting large fast-food chains [^][^][^]. Searches in expert-curated sources such as ESPN and NFL.com yielded information on video game personalities, culinary items, or media segments, not the financial performance or location counts for Toast, Inc. [^][^][^][^][^]. These sources contained no data on Toast, Inc.'s Q2 2026 financial performance, total locations, or key performance indicators [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has traded in a tight, sideways range between 93.0% and 99.0% since its inception. The contract opened at 98.0% before settling at its current price of 93.0%, which has acted as a near-term floor. The 98.0%-99.0% zone serves as the primary resistance level. The overall trend is flat, with a slight drift lower from its opening highs.
The market's high probability is anchored by Toast's Q1 2026 report of approximately 171,000 locations, setting a high baseline for the Q2 figure. The contract structure implies a resolution threshold of 176,000 locations. The most significant price move was a drop from 98.0% to 93.0%. This shift was not accompanied by any trading volume and does not correspond to any specific news catalyst in the provided context. It likely reflects an adjustment in resting orders rather than a reaction to new information.
Total volume is extremely low, with only 9 contracts traded in total. Most of this activity occurred at the market's launch. The subsequent lack of volume suggests conviction is weak and the price does not reflect a broad consensus. The high probability indicates market participants expect Toast to add the requisite 5,000 locations in Q2, but the absence of capital flow means this sentiment has not been meaningfully tested.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if Toast Inc. reports above 180,000 total locations in Q2 2026, otherwise it resolves NO, with Fiscal.ai verifying the outcome. The market is scheduled to close by September 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT, but may close early if the event occurs, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closure; insider trading by prohibited persons is forbidden.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| above 176 thousand | $0.99 | $0.05 | 98% |
| above 178 thousand | $0.83 | $0.22 | 77% |
| above 180 thousand | $0.46 | $0.60 | 39% |
| above 182 thousand | $0.23 | $0.83 | 23% |
| above 184 thousand | $0.08 | $0.93 | 7% |
| above 186 thousand | $0.08 | $0.98 | 5% |
Market Discussion
As of March 31, 2026, Toast announced it served approximately 171,000 locations, reflecting a 22% year-over-year increase [^][^][^]. However, there is no evidence in the provided sources regarding Toast Inc.'s total location count for Q2 2026 [^]-[^]. Public discussion following the Q1 2026 earnings report highlighted investor concerns over hardware tariffs and potential Gross Payment Volume (GPV) per location softness [^][^][^], although some analysts express long-term optimism due to margin expansion and potential AI-driven efficiencies [^][^][^].
4. What macroeconomic trends in the restaurant industry during Q2 2026 could have affected Toast's customer churn and new location acquisition rates?
| Restaurant Industry Macro Environment | Challenging with traffic declines, margin compression, and consumer spending pressure (Q2 2026 [^][^]) |
|---|---|
| Toast Customer Trends | Stable (Q2 2026 [^]) |
| Toast GPV per location decline | 1% (Q2 2026 [^]) |
The restaurant industry faced significant Q2 2026 macroeconomic challenges. This period was characterized by declining traffic, margin compression driven by elevated commodity and labor costs, and sustained consumer spending pressure, particularly among lower- and middle-income demographics [^][^]. These conditions created a challenging operational environment, potentially influencing decisions regarding technology adoption within the industry.
Toast's customer churn remained stable amid industry headwinds. Despite these broader industry challenges, Toast reported stable customer trends throughout Q2 2026. The company experienced only a minor 1% decline in Gross Payment Volume (GPV) per location, which was consistent with Q1 figures, indicating that customer churn for its existing base was not significantly impacted [^].
Toast pursued strategic expansion for new location acquisition. To counteract the challenging environment and drive growth in new location acquisition, Toast aggressively expanded into new market segments. These included enterprise solutions, such as drive-through offerings and hotel partnerships, as well as broader retail and international markets [^][^][^]. Additionally, the company leveraged new AI product launches to maintain its momentum [^][^][^].
5. What is the consensus among financial analysts for Toast's total locations at the end of Q2 2026?
| Q2 2026 total locations consensus | Not available from provided information [^] |
|---|---|
| Live locations (end of Q1 2026) | Approximately 171,000 [^][^][^] |
| Net additions (Q1 2026) | 7,000 [^][^][^] |
Analyst consensus for Toast's Q2 2026 locations is unavailable. The provided research findings do not contain information regarding a consensus among financial analysts for Toast's total locations at the end of the second quarter of 2026. Consequently, an explicit consensus figure from financial analysts for that specific period cannot be determined from the available data.
6. How does Toast's location growth rate in early 2026 compare to that of its key competitors, Square and Lightspeed?
| Toast Q1 2026 Net New Locations | Approximately 7,000 (Q1 2026) [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Toast Total Locations | Approximately 171,000 (as of 2026-03-31) [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Toast YoY Location Growth | 22% (Q1 2026) [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
A direct comparison of competitor location growth rates is not feasible for early 2026 due to significant data limitations. The available research lacks crucial information, specifically the total location counts for Square and Lightspeed in both Q1 and Q2 2026, as well as Toast's Q2 2026 total locations [^][^][^][^][^][^]. For Toast, Q1 2026 saw approximately 7,000 net new locations, bringing its total to an estimated 171,000 as of March 31, 2026. This represented a 22% year-over-year growth in locations [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. However, without the total number of locations for Q2 2026, a Q1 to Q2 2026 growth rate cannot be calculated from the existing evidence [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Competitor location growth data remains largely unavailable for early 2026, preventing a direct comparison. For Square, the research does not include total location key performance indicators for Q1 or Q2 2026, making it impossible to compute its location growth rate for the specified period [^][^][^][^][^][^]. While Square's overall Gross Payment Volume grew 13% in Q1 2026, consistent quarterly location growth data is not reported [^][^]. Similarly, Lightspeed's location growth rate for early 2026 cannot be determined due to the absence of total location figures for Q1 or Q2 2026 in the dataset [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Lightspeed previously reported stabilization in its location counts, adding approximately 2,600 net new locations in its fiscal Q3 2026, which concluded in late 2025, alongside a 9% year-over-year growth in its strategic core engines [^][^].
7. Which specific financial documents from Toast's August 13, 2026 earnings release will contain the definitive total location count?
| Primary Reporting Document 1 | Earnings press release (Exhibit 99.1 to a Form 8-K) [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Primary Reporting Document 2 | MD&A section of quarterly Form 10-Q filing [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Consistent Reporting Example | May 2026 earnings release and 10-Q quarterly report [^][^] |
Toast consistently reports its total location count in two primary financial documents. These include its earnings press release, typically filed as Exhibit 99.1 to a Form 8-K, and within the Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) section of its quarterly Form 10-Q filing [^][^][^][^][^]. This consistent practice is exemplified by Toast's May 2026 filings, such as its 8-K earnings release and 10-Q quarterly report, and related financial results announcements for the first quarter of 2026 [^][^][^][^].
Future reporting is expected to follow these established disclosure practices. Therefore, if Toast issues an earnings release on August 13, 2026, the total location count would be expected to appear in both its earnings press release (Exhibit 99.1 to a Form 8-K) and the MD&A section of its corresponding quarterly Form 10-Q. It is important to note, however, that the available information does not explicitly confirm an earnings release on this specific future date nor does it guarantee that these documents will contain the total location count for that particular reporting period.
8. How might the rollout of Toast's new Drive-Thru and Toast IQ Grow systems impact their net location additions in Q2 2026?
| Drive-Through TAM | Approximately 140,000 locations [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Toast IQ Grow Sales Increase | 8% average for pilot users [^][^][^] |
| Q2 2026 Location Forecast | Above 176,000 locations [^] |
New Toast systems target significant market expansion. Toast recently introduced 'Toast for Drive-Through', aiming at a total addressable market of approximately 140,000 locations [^][^][^]. This initiative, coupled with other total addressable market expansions, has been identified by management as a key factor for the company's overall growth [^][^]. Additionally, Toast rolled out 'Toast IQ Grow', an AI agent that has demonstrated an average sales increase of 8% among its initial pilot users [^][^][^].
Strong Q1 location additions project continued growth. Toast concluded Q1 2026 with approximately 171,000 total locations, having achieved 7,000 net new location additions during that quarter [^][^][^]. Notably, bookings in Q1 2026 surpassed the company's entire customer base from 2023 [^][^]. Looking ahead, prediction markets generally anticipate Toast to maintain its robust growth trajectory, forecasting the company to exceed 176,000 locations by the end of Q2 2026 [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Toast's growth drivers include the adoption of AI-driven tools like Toast IQ, expansion into enterprise markets, and solid location growth [^] [^] . As of March 31, 2026, Toast reported approximately 171,000 total locations, reflecting a 22% year-over-year increase [^][^]. For Q2 2026, Toast provided guidance for non-GAAP subscription services and financial technology solutions gross profit of $565 million to $575 million and adjusted EBITDA of $185 million to $195 million [^][^].
Bearish risks for Toast encompass potential margin compression from hardware costs and competitive pressure, such as that from DoorDash POS [^] . Uneven sales in the broader restaurant industry also pose a risk [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 03, 2026
- Closes: September 03, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Toast's growth drivers include the adoption of AI-driven tools like Toast IQ, expansion into enterprise markets, and solid location growth [^] [^] .
- Trigger: As of March 31, 2026, Toast reported approximately 171,000 total locations, reflecting a 22% year-over-year increase [^] [^] .
- Trigger: For Q2 2026, Toast provided guidance for non-GAAP subscription services and financial technology solutions gross profit of $565 million to $575 million and adjusted EBITDA of $185 million to $195 million [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Bearish risks for Toast encompass potential margin compression from hardware costs and competitive pressure, such as that from DoorDash POS [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
