Snowflake customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q2 2027
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Snowflake will have Above 805 customers with trailing 12-month revenue exceeding $1 million in Q2 2027, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~24h): The model's probability for "Above 830" increased +10.8pp, flipping the edge as the model led the market.
- "Above 835" also saw a significant model increase of +10.9pp, compressing the edge (model_led).
- Conversely, "Above 825" model probability fell -7.4pp, with the market leading a -13.0pp drop.
- Overall model probability rose +0.6pp and confidence score increased +1.0pp over ~24.1h.
- Snowflake's accelerating AI product adoption makes above 805 customers likely.
- The $6 billion AWS agreement is expected to accelerate large customer acquisition.
- Exceeding Q1 FY2027's 46 net-new customers makes above 825 probable.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 835 | 45.0% | 43.0% | Market higher by 2.0pp |
| Above 820 | 80.0% | 77.5% | Market higher by 2.5pp |
| Above 815 | 90.0% | 88.5% | Market higher by 1.5pp |
| Above 830 | 54.0% | 55.4% | Model higher by 1.4pp |
| Above 825 | 69.0% | 69.6% | Model higher by 0.6pp |
Current Context
Snowflake reported 779 customers exceeding $1 million TTM revenue in Q1 FY27. As of the end of Q1 fiscal year 2027, which concluded April 30, 2026, Snowflake reported 779 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue greater than $1 million [^][^][^]. Prediction markets are currently forecasting whether the number of Snowflake customers with trailing 12-month revenue over $1 million will exceed thresholds such as 805 or 825 by the conclusion of Q2 fiscal year 2027 [^].
Snowflake raised FY27 revenue guidance, citing AI adoption and AWS deal. For fiscal year 2027, Snowflake has raised its product revenue growth guidance to 31%, forecasting $5.84 billion in product revenue [^][^][^][^][^]. The company reported $9.21 billion in remaining performance obligations [^][^][^][^][^]. These projections are driven by increased AI product adoption and a $6 billion multi-year AWS agreement [^][^][^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market, which resolves based on whether Snowflake's count of customers with over $1 million in trailing 12-month revenue exceeds 805 in Q2 fiscal year 2027, has seen a rapid upward price movement since its inception. The contract opened at 0.0% probability on July 9, 2026, and quickly spiked. A 50.0 percentage point increase was recorded on July 9, followed by a 10.0 percentage point increase on July 10, bringing the price to 97.0%. The price has held at this level since, establishing 97.0% as a firm resistance point. Total trading volume is exceptionally light at only 62 contracts, suggesting the sharp price movements reflect an initial positioning by a small number of participants rather than broad market activity.
The market sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, pricing in a near-certainty that Snowflake will add at least 26 net new customers in this cohort during the second quarter. The most recent data point from Snowflake's Q1 FY27 report was 779 customers in this category. The provided research did not identify any specific news or events that drove the price spikes on July 9 and July 10. The movement appears to be an initial pricing-in of the baseline expectation for customer growth immediately after the market opened, rather than a reaction to new information. The stable, high price on thin volume indicates a strong but shallow consensus, with little active trading to challenge the initial positioning.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 825
📉 July 13, 2026: 13.0pp drop
Price decreased from 82.0% to 69.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not identify a primary driver for the 13.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market on July 13, 2026. No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives related to Snowflake's customer count or such a price movement was found in the available sources. Crucially, no major news event in July 2026 confirmed a 13.0 percentage point drop specifically linked to the customer count catalyst, despite Snowflake's Q1 FY2027 reporting 779 customers in May 2026 [^]. Therefore, social media activity appears to be irrelevant to this price movement.
Outcome: Above 820
📉 July 12, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 88.0% to 77.0%
What happened: The provided information does not specify any social media activity, traditional news announcements, or market structure events directly coinciding with the 11.0 percentage point drop on July 12, 2026. Snowflake's Q2 FY2027 financial results were not yet released as of July 14, 2026, indicating this movement was speculative rather than driven by new fundamental data [^]. While the Q1 FY2027 report in May 2026 identified 779 customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1 million, this pre-dates the July 12 market drop and does not explain the sudden movement [^]. Based on the available sources, social media activity was irrelevant to this specific price movement.
Outcome: Above 845
📉 July 10, 2026: 40.0pp drop
Price decreased from 49.0% to 9.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 40.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market price on July 10, 2026, cannot be determined from the provided web research. No social media posts from key figures, viral narratives, or breaking news events were identified that would account for such a decline related to Snowflake's customer count. Although Snowflake's Q1 FY2027 report (May 2026) announced 779 customers with >$1M TTM revenue, making the "Above 845" target appear ambitious, there was no new information on or around July 10, 2026, to cause such a sharp reassessment, and the number "845" itself is linked to unrelated job listings [^][^][^]. Social media activity was irrelevant, as no pertinent posts or narratives were found to lead, coincide with, or lag the market movement.
Outcome: Above 805
📈 July 09, 2026: 50.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 50.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not contain any specific social media activity, traditional news announcements, or market structure factors that directly explain the 50.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market "Snowflake customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q2 2027" to "Above 805" on July 09, 2026. While Snowflake's stock experienced a rebound by July 2026, driven by general optimism regarding AI inflection and strong Q1 results [^], no specific social media posts from key figures or breaking news on or immediately preceding July 09, 2026, are available to attribute this sharp movement. The Q1 FY2027 earnings (reported May 2026) showed 779 such customers [^][^], making a jump to above 805 a significant anticipated increase not explicitly supported by new, time-proximate information. Therefore, based on the provided sources, social media activity appears irrelevant.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if Snowflake Inc. reports more than 835 customers with trailing 12-month revenue exceeding $1 million for Q2 2027, otherwise it resolves NO. The outcome is verified by Fiscal.ai. Trading concludes on August 26, 4:00 PM EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after the market closes following the outcome's occurrence.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 805 | $0.99 | $0.06 | 97% |
| Above 810 | $0.98 | $0.06 | 97% |
| Above 815 | $0.94 | $0.11 | 90% |
| Above 820 | $0.81 | $0.22 | 80% |
| Above 825 | $0.76 | $0.30 | 69% |
| Above 830 | $0.61 | $0.45 | 54% |
| Above 835 | $0.45 | $0.58 | 45% |
| Above 840 | $0.24 | $0.82 | 23% |
| Above 850 | $0.13 | $0.93 | 13% |
| Above 845 | $0.17 | $0.88 | 7% |
| Above 855 | $0.11 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Above 860 | $0.07 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Above 865 | $0.06 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Above 870 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Above 875 | $0.04 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Above 880 | $0.04 | $1.00 | 2% |
Market Discussion
Snowflake reported 779 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue exceeding $1 million as of the end of Q1 Fiscal 2027 (ended April 30, 2026) [^][^]. Prediction markets are currently trading on whether Snowflake will report above 805 or 825 such customers for Q2 Fiscal 2027 [^]. The company's Q2 Fiscal 2027 product revenue guidance is $1.415 billion to $1.420 billion, representing 30% year-over-year growth [^][^].
5. How might the adoption rates of Snowflake's AI products, such as Cortex and Snowpark, influence the number of million-dollar customers in Q2 FY2027?
| Customers with >$1M product revenue (Q1 FY2027) | 779 (as of April 30, 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Net-new >$1M customers (Q1 FY2027) | 46 [^][^][^] |
| Net-new >$1M customers (Q1 FY2026) | 26 [^][^][^] |
Snowflake's management directly links AI product adoption to core revenue growth. The company has explicitly stated that accelerated adoption of its AI offerings, including Cortex and Snowpark, is connected to its overall revenue expansion [^][^][^]. This connection suggests that increased AI product usage could lead to a higher number of customers generating over $1 million in trailing 12-month product revenue by Q2 FY2027 [^][^][^].
As of Q1 FY2027, Snowflake reported 779 million-dollar customers. The company concluded its first fiscal quarter on April 30, 2026, with this number of customers generating over $1 million in trailing 12-month product revenue [^][^][^]. This period saw the addition of 46 net-new customers to this high-value cohort, which represents an increase from the 26 net-new additions observed in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year [^][^][^].
Growth in high-value customers is anticipated in Q2 FY2027. While specific projections for the number of million-dollar customers in Q2 FY2027 are not publicly available, the established relationship between AI product adoption and core revenue growth, combined with the observed increase in customer movement to Snowflake, indicates a potential for continued expansion within this valuable customer segment [^][^][^].
6. What are the consensus analyst estimates from major financial institutions for Snowflake's million-dollar customer count growth in Q2 and for the full fiscal year 2027?
| Million-dollar customers (Q1 2027) | 779 (as of April 30, 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Analyst estimates (Q2/FY27) | Not available for million-dollar customer growth [^] |
| Management guidance (FY27) | No specific guidance for million-dollar customer count [^][^][^] |
Consensus analyst estimates for million-dollar customer growth are unavailable. There are currently no consensus analyst projections from major financial institutions regarding Snowflake's million-dollar customer count growth for either Q2 or the full fiscal year 2027 [^][^][^]. Furthermore, during their Q1 2027 earnings call, Snowflake management did not offer specific guidance for the total number of customers exceeding $1 million in revenue for the remainder of fiscal year 2027, choosing instead to emphasize broader revenue guidance and overall growth trends [^][^][^].
7. How does Snowflake's growth rate in customers with over $1 million in TTM revenue compare to that of its primary competitor, Databricks, in H1 2026?
| Databricks $1M+ customers | Over 800 (February 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Snowflake $1M+ customers | 779 (Q1 fiscal 2027 ending April 30, 2026) [^][^][^] |
| Databricks $1M+ customer growth | Greater than 65% year-over-year (early 2026) [^][^][^] |
Databricks significantly outpaced Snowflake in high-value customer acquisition during H1 2026. As of February 2026, Databricks reported over 800 customers consuming more than $1 million in annual revenue run-rate [^][^]. This figure indicates a year-over-year growth rate exceeding 65% for Databricks within this segment in early 2026 [^][^][^].
Snowflake's growth in high-value customers lagged behind its competitor. In contrast, Snowflake reported 779 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue exceeding $1 million as of Q1 fiscal 2027, which concluded on April 30, 2026 [^][^][^]. This represented a 29% year-over-year growth for Snowflake in this customer segment [^][^][^]. The data indicates that Databricks' growth in acquiring high-value customers was substantially faster than Snowflake's approximate 29-30% year-over-year growth during early 2026, with this growth differential widening during the period [^][^][^].
8. What is Snowflake's official methodology for calculating 'customers with trailing 12-month product revenue >$1M,' and what has been the quarterly growth trend for this metric since FY2025?
Snowflake defines high-value customers based on specific revenue criteria. The company's metric for "customers with trailing 12-month product revenue >$1M" specifically counts unique capacity-contracted accounts that generated over $1 million in product revenue during the preceding 12 months [^]. Customers operating under on-demand arrangements are excluded from this calculation [^]. Each capacity-contracted account is recognized as a unique customer, even if they are end-customers utilizing reseller services. Consequently, a single organization may be counted multiple times if its various divisions, segments, or subsidiaries maintain separate contracts [^].
This customer segment has shown consistent quarterly growth since FY2025. The number of customers exceeding $1 million in trailing 12-month product revenue has demonstrated a consistently positive growth trend [^]. Specific counts include 580 for FY2025 Q4 [^], which then increased to 654 by FY2026 Q2 [^][^]. This growth continued, with the figure reaching 733 for FY2026 Q4 [^][^]. The most recent reported count is 779 for FY2027 Q1 [^].
9. How might the $6 billion multi-year agreement with AWS specifically accelerate Snowflake's acquisition of new large customer accounts leading into the Q2 FY2027 reporting period?
| Agreement Value | $6 billion [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Agreement Duration | five-year [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Signing Date | May 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
Snowflake and AWS signed a significant $6 billion, five-year strategic agreement. This strategic collaboration agreement, finalized in May 2026, is specifically designed to accelerate Snowflake's customer acquisition [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The expected impact of this significant partnership has already been incorporated into Snowflake's Q2 FY2027 product revenue forecast [^][^][^][^][^][^].
The agreement streamlines procurement and boosts AI capabilities for customers. It facilitates customer acquisition by expanding Snowflake's go-to-market presence on the AWS Marketplace, which simplifies procurement and contracting for their shared customer base [^][^][^]. Furthermore, the collaboration provides dedicated funding for joint customer success programs and initiatives aimed at workload migration [^][^][^]. A core technical component of this agreement involves the increased utilization of AWS Graviton processors and deeper product integrations, particularly for generative and agentic AI workloads [^][^][^][^].
Snowflake's financial forecast remains based on existing consumption patterns. Despite the introduction of this new AWS agreement, Snowflake has clearly stated that its financial guidance, including the Q2 FY2027 revenue forecast, continues to be based on existing consumption patterns and does not reflect any changes to their forecast methodology [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Snowflake is expected to release its financial results for the second quarter (Q2) of fiscal year 2027 on or around August 26, 2026 [^] [^] [^] . 2026 Date, Time & Stock Market Impact | Catacal" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^]. The Q2 fiscal 2027 outlook projects product revenue between $1.415 billion and $1.42 billion, representing 30% year-over-year growth [^][^][^]. As of the end of Q1 fiscal year 2027, which ended April 30, 2026, the company reported 779 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue greater than $1 million [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: December 24, 2026
- Closes: December 24, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Snowflake is expected to release its financial results for the second quarter (Q2) of fiscal year 2027 on or around August 26, 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The Q2 fiscal 2027 outlook projects product revenue between $1.415 billion and $1.42 billion, representing 30% year-over-year growth [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: As of the end of Q1 fiscal year 2027, which ended April 30, 2026, the company reported 779 customers with trailing 12-month product revenue greater than $1 million [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Key bullish catalysts identified include accelerating AI-related consumption and expansion of the Cortex AI platform [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 7 markets in this series
Outcomes: 5 resolved YES, 2 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXSNOWFLAKE-26MAYCUST-P785: NO (May 27, 2026)
- KXSNOWFLAKE-26MAYCUST-P780: NO (May 27, 2026)
- KXSNOWFLAKE-26MAYCUST-P775: YES (May 27, 2026)
- KXSNOWFLAKE-26MAYCUST-P770: YES (May 27, 2026)
- KXSNOWFLAKE-26MAYCUST-P765: YES (May 27, 2026)
