McDonald's Corporation total systemwide restaurants in Q2 2026
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully lower odds (69.2% vs 93.0%) than the market for McDonald's total systemwide restaurants being Above 45800 in Q2 2026. This is driven by Q1 2026 results showing 45,699 restaurants, making it unlikely to exceed 45,800 by Q2 given the remaining 2,100 full-year net additions target.
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~7h): Model probability for Above 46000 declined by 26.7pp (model_led), widening the edge significantly.
- Headline model probability for Above 45800 fell 22.4pp (model_led), further widening the market edge.
- Confidence score increased by 1.0pp, suggesting higher certainty in the model's updated view.
- A Q2 2026 count above 45,800 appears unlikely given 45,699 as of March 31.
- Exceeding 45,800 is difficult with only ~157 net additions remaining for 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 45800 | 93.0% | 69.2% | McDonald's had 45,699 restaurants by March 31, 2026, leaving few additions for later quarters. |
| Above 46100 | 42.0% | 12.8% | McDonald's had 45,699 restaurants by March 31, 2026, leaving few additions for later quarters. |
| Above 46000 | 60.0% | 29.5% | McDonald's had 45,699 restaurants by March 31, 2026, leaving few additions for later quarters. |
| Above 45900 | 75.0% | 45.4% | McDonald's had 45,699 restaurants by March 31, 2026, leaving few additions for later quarters. |
| Above 46300 | 9.0% | 3.2% | McDonald's had 45,699 restaurants by March 31, 2026, leaving few additions for later quarters. |
Current Context
McDonald's Q2 2026 restaurant count is not yet publicly available. As of July 9, 2026, McDonald's has not released its Q2 2026 financial results, with an estimated earnings date of August 5, 2026 [^]. No definitive systemwide restaurant total for Q2 2026 has been disclosed in the provided evidence or any source from the last six months [^][^][^][^][^].
The most recent confirmed count is 45,699 for Q1 2026. This figure was reported as of March 31, 2026, within the company's Q1 2026 results released on May 7, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. At year-end 2025, McDonald's reported 45,356 total systemwide restaurants [^][^][^][^][^]. A dividend release on May 20, 2026, also described McDonald's as operating over 45,000 locations in more than 100 countries [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The price chart for this market is entirely static, showing a flat line at a 93.0% 'YES' probability since its inception. There have been no price movements of any kind. The lack of volatility is directly attributable to the complete absence of trading activity.
The defining feature of this market is its zero-volume state. No contracts have been traded, which indicates there is no active price discovery or market participation. The 93.0% level is not a support or resistance level established by trading, but rather the initial, untested price set by the market maker. The chart does not reflect market sentiment or conviction, as no traders have registered an opinion by buying or selling shares. The market is effectively dormant pending the release of McDonald's official Q2 2026 results, which are anticipated around August 5, 2026.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves Yes if McDonald's Corporation reports more than 46,100 total systemwide restaurants in Q2 2026, and No if it reports 46,100 or fewer. The outcome will be verified using data from Fiscal.ai. Trading is scheduled to close by September 4, 2026, at 7:00 AM EDT, though the market may close earlier if the event occurs beforehand, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 45800 | $0.95 | $0.06 | 93% |
| Above 45900 | $0.84 | $0.22 | 75% |
| Above 46000 | $0.67 | $0.40 | 60% |
| Above 46100 | $0.47 | $0.58 | 42% |
| Above 46200 | $0.23 | $0.84 | 25% |
| Above 46300 | $0.09 | $0.98 | 9% |
Market Discussion
As of March 31, 2026, McDonald's Corporation operated 45,699 systemwide restaurants worldwide [^][^][^]. The company is targeting approximately 2,600 gross restaurant openings in 2026 as part of its strategic goal to reach 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027 [^][^][^]. Prediction markets are actively trading on whether McDonald's total systemwide restaurant count will exceed 46,000 or 46,100 by the end of Q2 2026 [^][^].
4. What were McDonald's official projections and stated strategic goals for net restaurant expansion in fiscal year 2026?
| FY2026 Gross Restaurant Openings | Approximately 2,600 (gross) [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| FY2026 Net Restaurant Additions | Approximately 2,100 (net) [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Contribution to 2026 Sales Growth | Approximately 2.5% (systemwide sales growth in constant currencies) [^][^][^] |
McDonald's plans significant restaurant expansion with strategic global growth by 2026. For fiscal year 2026, the company projects approximately 2,600 gross restaurant openings and anticipates around 2,100 net restaurant additions worldwide. This expansion is a key step towards McDonald's strategic goal of achieving 50,000 restaurants globally by the end of 2027. Over 1,800 of these new establishments are expected to be opened by developmental licensees and affiliates [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Net restaurant growth is projected to boost systemwide sales. The projected net increase in restaurant units for FY2026 is expected to contribute approximately 2.5% to McDonald's systemwide sales growth in constant currencies. McDonald's strategic approach combines corporate efforts with global development, utilizing franchised and developmental partners to increase unit counts globally, while also managing anticipated closures or replacements to meet the overall net addition target [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
5. What is the consensus estimate among financial analysts for McDonald's net new restaurant openings in Q2 2026?
| Projected Net New Restaurant Additions (FY 2026) | 2,100 [^] |
|---|---|
| Projected Gross Restaurant Openings (FY 2026) | 2,600 [^][^][^] |
| Total Systemwide Restaurants (March 31, 2026) | 45,699 [^][^] |
Direct analyst consensus for Q2 2026 net new openings is unavailable. The provided information does not contain a specific analyst consensus estimate for McDonald's net new restaurant openings during the second quarter of 2026. However, the closest available consensus-style data indicates an approximate projection of 2,100 net restaurant additions for the full year 2026 [^].
McDonald's projects 2,100 net new restaurants for full-year 2026. This company forecast for 2026 is driven by an estimated 2,600 gross restaurant openings [^][^][^], which suggests roughly 4.5% unit growth for the full year [^]. These net additions contribute to the company's stated goal of achieving a total of 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027 [^]. As of March 31, 2026, McDonald's operated 45,699 total systemwide restaurants [^][^].
6. How does McDonald's recent net unit growth rate compare to that of its major competitors, Yum! Brands and Restaurant Brands International?
| McDonald's Annual Growth Target | 4–5% [^][^] |
|---|---|
| McDonald's Global Openings (2026) | approximately 2,600 [^][^] |
| McDonald's Total Restaurants (Q1 2026) | 45,699 [^][^] |
McDonald's plans aggressive expansion with a high net unit growth target. The company has initiated a growth strategy targeting 4–5% annual net new restaurant growth, with approximately 2,600 global openings projected for 2026 [^][^]. As of March 31, 2026 (Q1 2026), McDonald's total systemwide restaurant count was 45,699 [^][^]. This ambitious growth strategy sets a high bar for the company's future unit expansion.
Competitors' recent growth rates trail McDonald's, but long-term targets align. For full-year 2025, McDonald's major competitors reported lower net unit growth. Yum! Brands achieved 3% year-over-year unit growth [^], and Restaurant Brands International (RBI) reported 2.9% net restaurant growth [^][^]. However, both competitors have established long-term goals that match or exceed McDonald's current ambition; Yum! Brands targets 5% annual unit growth [^], and RBI aims for over 5% annual net restaurant growth by 2028 [^].
7. When is McDonald's scheduled to release its Q2 2026 earnings, and which specific document will contain the official restaurant count?
| Expected Q2 2026 Earnings Release | August 5, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Official Announcement Status | Not yet made [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Restaurant Count Location | Earnings press release / Form 8-K Exhibit 99.2 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
McDonald's Q2 2026 earnings release date is currently projected, but unconfirmed. McDonald's is anticipated to release its second-quarter 2026 earnings on August 5, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. However, an official announcement for this specific earnings release date has not yet been made or publicly posted in the provided evidence [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Based on the company's historical reporting patterns, the release is most likely to occur in late July to early August 2026, though this remains an inference rather than a confirmed date [^][^][^][^][^][^].
The official systemwide restaurant count will be published in multiple financial disclosures. The total systemwide restaurant count for Q2 2026 will be included in McDonald's Q2 2026 earnings press release or results announcement, which will be accessible on the company's investor-relations website [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This key performance indicator (KPI) for the restaurant count will also be found within the supplemental schedules, specifically Exhibit 99.2, attached to the company's Form 8-K earnings release [^][^][^].
8. Which geographic segments are the primary drivers of McDonald's restaurant count changes in 2026?
| Primary Growth Driver 2026 | International Developmental Licensed Markets (IDL) segment [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| China Q1 2026 Net New Restaurants | 951 [^][^][^] |
| Total Planned Openings 2026 | Approximately 2,600 [^][^] |
International Developmental Licensed Markets heavily drive McDonald's restaurant count growth. The International Developmental Licensed Markets (IDL) segment is the primary driver of McDonald's restaurant count changes in 2026, with China identified as the largest single-market contributor [^][^][^]. In the first quarter of 2026, the IDL segment alone contributed a net increase of 1,455 restaurants. During the same period, China was a significant contributor, adding 951 net new restaurants [^][^][^]. The company's total systemwide restaurant count saw a Q1 net increase of 1,943 [^][^].
McDonald's achieved substantial systemwide growth in early 2026. As of March 31, 2026, the total systemwide restaurant count reached 45,699, an increase from 43,756 at the end of 2025 [^][^]. For the full year 2026, McDonald's plans approximately 2,600 total gross restaurant openings. Developmental licensees and affiliates are expected to contribute capital for over 1,800 of these planned openings [^][^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
McDonald's Corporation had 45,699 total systemwide restaurants as of March 31, 2026 [^] [^] . For the full year 2026, McDonald's expects to open approximately 2,600 restaurants, targeting approximately 2,100 net restaurant additions [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 04, 2026
- Closes: September 04, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: McDonald's Corporation had 45,699 total systemwide restaurants as of March 31, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: For the full year 2026, McDonald's expects to open approximately 2,600 restaurants, targeting approximately 2,100 net restaurant additions [^] .
- Trigger: Upcoming earnings releases serve as scheduled catalysts.
- Trigger: McDonald's Q1 2026 results were released on May 7, 2026 [^] [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
