Ferrari total shipments in Q2
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Ferrari total shipments in Q2 2026 to be Above 3300, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~2d): Model for "Above 3450" surged +19.9pp (to 52.3%), compressing its edge despite market gains.
- Headline model probability for Above 3300 rose +2.2pp, compressing its edge as market held steady.
- Model probability for "Above 3550" decreased -3.3pp, widening the edge against a static market.
- Confidence score decreased by -2.0pp, reflecting reduced certainty.
- Shipments are expected to exceed 3,436 units, per analyst consensus for sequential acceleration.
- Planned model changeovers likely limit significant sequential acceleration above 3,450 units.
- Management confirmed full-year guidance, despite macroeconomic headwinds in Greater China.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3500 | 6.0% | 13.2% | Model higher by 7.2pp |
| Above 3550 | 2.0% | 4.8% | Model higher by 2.8pp |
| Above 3400 | 77.0% | 64.2% | Market higher by 12.8pp |
| Above 3350 | 97.0% | 82.0% | Market higher by 15.0pp |
| Above 3450 | 50.0% | 52.3% | Model higher by 2.3pp |
Current Context
Ferrari's Q2 2026 shipment data is not yet public. As of July 13, 2026, specific total vehicle shipment numbers for Q2 2026 are not publicly disclosed [^]. Ferrari is scheduled to release its Q2 2026 financial results on July 30, 2026 [^][^][^]. In Q1 2026, Ferrari's total shipments were 3,436 units, which reflected a planned model change-over [^][^][^].
Market sentiment for Ferrari remains positive as of July 2026. Wolfe Research initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a 382 Euro price target [^]. Prediction markets on Kalshi have set a threshold of 3,450 car shipments for Q2 2026 as a performance benchmark [^]. Ferrari's 2026 F1 operational updates focus on technical performance and are separate from corporate financial shipment data [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price action indicates high but thinly traded conviction. The contract opened at 92.0% and traded sideways before moving to 96.0% around July 12. This 400 basis point move represents the entirety of the price range to date. The context provided does not contain a specific news catalyst for this upward shift. Ferrari's Q1 2026 shipments were 3,436 units, and the official Q2 2026 results are scheduled for release on July 30, 2026. The price move occurred in the absence of the official data release.
Trading volume is exceptionally low, with only one contract traded in total. This illiquidity is the most significant feature of the chart. The price jump from 92.0% to 96.0% could be the result of a single trade and does not necessarily reflect a broad shift in market consensus. The lack of volume suggests that conviction, while priced high, is not supported by significant capital flow. Any price discovery in this market is therefore unreliable.
The chart implies a narrow sentiment band, with a floor at 92.0% and current pricing at the 96.0% ceiling. This suggests a persistent belief that the outcome is highly probable. However, given the near-zero liquidity, the price level is a weak signal. The market reflects the opinion of a very small number of participants rather than a robust, two-sided view.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if Ferrari N.V. reports above 3450 total car shipments for Q2 2026, and NO if 3450 or fewer are reported. The market opened on May 21, 2026, and will close upon the outcome of Q2 2026 shipments, or by August 29, 2026, at 7:00 AM EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Outcome verification is performed by Fiscal.ai, and insider trading is prohibited.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3300 | $0.98 | $0.03 | 98% |
| Above 3350 | $0.98 | $0.03 | 97% |
| Above 3400 | $0.78 | $0.23 | 77% |
| Above 3450 | $0.51 | $0.50 | 50% |
| Above 3500 | $0.07 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Above 3550 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 2% |
Market Discussion
Ferrari N.V. (RACE) is scheduled to release its Q2 2026 financial results on July 30, 2026, with prediction markets active on whether total car shipments will exceed 3,450 units [^][^][^][^][^]. Analysts, including UBS, anticipate a sequential acceleration in shipments for the quarter [^]. While broader investor sentiment appears positive, recent public discourse largely centers on the Formula 1 team's performance and technical upgrades, rather than commercial shipment figures [^][^][^][^].
4. How might macroeconomic indicators in Ferrari's key markets, particularly Greater China and the Americas, influence demand and final delivery numbers for Q2 2026?
| Greater China Revenue Exposure | Approximately 8% [^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Guidance Status | Maintained as of July 13, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Order Book Visibility | Extends to 2027 [^][^][^][^][^] |
Macroeconomic conditions in key markets pose challenges for Ferrari's Q2 2026 demand. Greater China continues to experience significant headwinds for luxury automotive demand, primarily due to a prolonged property sector slump and decreased consumer sentiment [^][^]. Simultaneously, the Americas market, critical for Ferrari's 2026 performance, faces pressures from U.S. import tariffs and potential macroeconomic shocks [^][^][^][^]. Ferrari's revenue exposure to Greater China is relatively low at approximately 8%, which limits geographic diversification and increases reliance on the Americas market [^].
Ferrari maintains its guidance through strategic agility and robust order visibility. Despite these macroeconomic uncertainties and broader geopolitical tensions, Ferrari affirmed its full-year 2026 guidance as of July 13, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^]. The company demonstrated operational agility in Q1 2026 by rerouting shipments and utilizing alternative logistics to mitigate Middle East disruptions, which resulted in shipment numbers that met internal targets [^][^][^]. This strategy of leveraging allocation flexibility remains the primary defense against localized macroeconomic volatility in Q2 2026, supported by strong order book visibility extending into 2027 [^][^][^][^][^].
5. How do Ferrari's projected Q2 2026 shipment numbers compare to its actual performance in Q2 2025 and Q2 2024?
| Q2 2026 Shipment Prediction Threshold | Above 3,450 units (Kalshi) [^] |
|---|---|
| Q2 2025 Total Shipments | 3,494 units [^][^] |
| Q2 2024 Total Shipments | 3,484 units [^][^] |
Ferrari's Q2 2026 shipment outlook is currently tracked by market predictions. While specific projected shipment numbers for Ferrari in Q2 2026 are not publicly available, a prediction market follows whether the company's total shipments for that quarter will surpass 3,450 units [^]. This threshold serves as a contemporary market expectation for Ferrari's performance in the upcoming quarter.
Ferrari's recent Q2 performance provides a strong historical context for comparison. The company reported a total of 3,494 units shipped in Q2 2025 [^][^]. Prior to that, Ferrari's Q2 2024 total shipments amounted to 3,484 units [^][^]. These consistent shipment volumes from previous second quarters offer a baseline against which future projections and market predictions can be assessed.
6. What guidance did Ferrari's management provide regarding their Q2 2026 outlook during the Q1 2026 earnings call?
| Q2 2026 Shipment Guidance | Not provided [^] |
|---|---|
| Full-Year 2026 Guidance | Confirmed [^][^] |
| Profitability Distribution | More evenly spread between H1 and H2 [^][^] |
Ferrari confirmed full-year guidance but adjusted profitability outlook for 2026. During the Q1 2026 earnings call, Ferrari's management did not provide specific numerical shipment guidance for Q2 2026. However, they did reaffirm their previously established full-year 2026 guidance [^][^]. A key adjustment was made to profitability expectations, with the company now anticipating a more even distribution between the first and second halves of the year than initially forecast [^][^].
Profitability shifts stemmed from Q1's strong product and country mix. This revised profitability outlook was a direct result of a stronger product and country mix observed in the first quarter [^][^]. The improved mix was attributed to Ferrari's effective adaptation to logistical disruptions, particularly those encountered in the Middle East [^][^]. The company successfully navigated geopolitical challenges in the Middle East by employing operational flexibility, including rerouting shipments, which helped maintain stable year-over-year deliveries [^].
7. What alternative data sources, such as European vehicle registration data, can signal Ferrari's Q2 2026 shipment trends ahead of the official July 30 announcement?
| EU New Car Registration Relevance | Proxy for general market activity (not direct for Ferrari shipments) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Ferrari Order Book Visibility | Extends to end of 2027 [^][^] |
| Ferrari Shipment Primary Drivers | Production capacity and company-defined delivery schedules [^][^] |
European car registration data provides limited direct insight into Ferrari's shipments. European new car registration data, aggregated by bodies such as the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) and the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), serves as a proxy for general market activity [^][^][^]. However, this information is not a direct indicator for Ferrari's specific internal shipment figures for Q2 2026. This limitation arises primarily from the inherent time lag between vehicle production, its subsequent shipment, and final market registration [^][^][^].
Ferrari's substantial order book dictates shipments, overriding external registration trends. Ferrari's shipment trends are predominantly influenced by its internal operational dynamics, including specific model ramp-up phases, strategic geographical allocation, and sophisticated supply chain management [^]. For Q2 2026, the company's guidance indicated that deliveries in EMEA were planned with particular ramp-up dynamics, and Ferrari has actively utilized flexible logistics to navigate regional geopolitical constraints [^][^][^]. A significant forward-looking indicator for the company's performance is its substantial order book, which provides clear visibility extending through to the end of 2027 [^][^]. This extensive backlog suggests that Ferrari's shipment volumes are more closely tied to its established production capacity and company-defined delivery schedules rather than being immediately responsive to external macroeconomic registration trends [^][^].
8. How will the planned model change-over, referenced in Ferrari's Q1 2026 report, impact production schedules and shipment volumes in Q2 2026?
| Q1 2026 Shipments | 3,436 units [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 YoY decrease | 157 units [^][^][^] |
| Model Changeover Impact | Lowest in Q1 2026, growing through year [^][^] |
Ferrari's Q1 2026 shipments decreased due to strategic delivery pacing [^] [^] [^] . The company reported 3,436 units shipped in Q1 2026, a year-over-year decrease of 157 units [^][^][^]. This reduction was attributed to intentional delivery pacing designed to ease model changeovers and address geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East [^][^][^]. Ferrari's Q1 2026 report explicitly stated that the impact of planned model changeovers on production and deliveries was lowest in Q1, with impacts expected to grow throughout the remainder of the year [^][^].
Q2 2026 is expected to face a more substantial impact from model changeovers [^] [^] . This indicates that the impact on production schedules and shipment volumes will be more significant in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026 [^][^]. While some market observers expressed concern that an accelerated pace of deliveries in Q1 could create headwinds for Q2, management maintained its full-year guidance [^]. Management further stated that the product mix and pricing strategy would continue to offset any variations in delivery volume [^][^]. The specific magnitude of the anticipated impact on Q2 2026 production schedules or shipment volumes is not detailed beyond the expectation of growing impacts after Q1 [^][^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Ferrari is scheduled to release its Q2 2026 group financial results on July 30, 2026 [^] [^] . Market analysts, including UBS, expect Ferrari to deliver sequential acceleration in shipments during Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026, alongside potential for a guidance upgrade for the full year 2026 [^]. Q1 2026 shipments were deliberately lower, at 3,436 units, to manage model change-overs, which established a low base for volume growth expectations in subsequent 2026 quarters [^][^].
Key bullish catalysts for Ferrari in 2026 include successful ramp-ups of F80 Supercar deliveries, strong product mix and pricing power, and ongoing institutional share buybacks [^] [^] [^] . 2026 GUIDANCE CONFIRMED" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^]. Conversely, bearish risks center on Middle East geopolitical instability, potential US tariff impacts, and broader luxury market choppiness [^][^][^].
Ferrari's performance in the 2026 Formula 1 season is significantly influenced by the FIA's Additional Upgrade and Development Opportunities (ADUO) mechanism, which permits engine upgrades after a 4% performance deficit assessment compared to the benchmark engine [^] [^] [^] . The new engine rule that could shake up 2026 and Mercedes, Ferrari title race - ESPN" data-source-lanes="curated">[^][^]. Recent upgrades, including a power unit update introduced for the 2026 Austrian Grand Prix, have fueled speculation and competitive concern from rivals regarding Ferrari's development trajectory [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: August 29, 2026
- Closes: August 29, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Ferrari is scheduled to release its Q2 2026 group financial results on July 30, 2026 [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Market analysts, including UBS, expect Ferrari to deliver sequential acceleration in shipments during Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026, alongside potential for a guidance upgrade for the full year 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Q1 2026 shipments were deliberately lower, at 3,436 units, to manage model change-overs, which established a low base for volume growth expectations in subsequent 2026 quarters [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Key bullish catalysts for Ferrari in 2026 include successful ramp-ups of F80 Supercar deliveries, strong product mix and pricing power, and ongoing institutional share buybacks [^] [^] [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
