Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Anthropic will IPO first, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- OpenAI holds significantly higher valuation than Anthropic leading into 2026-2027.
- Market consensus appears to favor an Anthropic IPO before OpenAI by late 2027.
- A public S-1 filing acts as the key IPO catalyst for either company.
- SoftBank faces significant liquidity pressure from its OpenAI investment.
- Forge Global reported secondary share prices for both firms in May 2026.
- Prediction markets suggest Anthropic is more likely to IPO first as of May 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 81.0% | 80.0% | No specific financial information about Anthropic's IPO readiness was provided in the excerpt. |
| OpenAI | 31.0% | 18.6% | No specific financial information about OpenAI's IPO readiness was provided in the excerpt. |
Current Context
Current State Summary: OpenAI vs. Anthropic IPO
Anthropic is currently favored to complete an IPO before OpenAI. The prediction market signal, based on sources captured, indicates Anthropic has a 68% probability of IPOing first, compared to OpenAI's 32% [^][^]. This market resolves based on which company completes an initial public offering by December 31, 2027 (ET) [^][^].
OpenAI's IPO timeline faces internal debate and varied targets. As of October 29/30, 2025, Reuters reported that OpenAI was considering filing with securities regulators as early as the second half of 2026, according to people familiar with the matter [^]. However, internal discussions reveal differing views: CFO Sarah Friar is reportedly advocating for delaying the IPO until 2027, while CEO Sam Altman aims for a Q4 2026 listing, highlighting internal disagreement over timing, readiness, and potential constraints [^].
Anthropic lacks official filings but recent funding signals progress. As of late April 2026, Anthropic had not filed an S-1 or confirmed an IPO date [^][^][^]. While some reports cited a target window of Q4 2026, this remains unconfirmed [^][^]. More recently, mid-May 2026 reports discuss a potential $30 billion fundraising round at a valuation around $900 billion, though a term sheet is not yet finalized [^][^]. Such a significant funding event is often considered a preliminary step that could accelerate an IPO process and influence its timing probabilities [^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market has exhibited a long-term downward trend, with the probability of OpenAI IPOing first declining from a starting price of 39.0% to its current level of 31.0%. The period between May 11 and May 16, 2026, was marked by extreme volatility. The price initially spiked to 40.0% on May 11, likely due to news that Anthropic was seeking a large private funding round, which may have been perceived as delaying its IPO timeline. This was followed by drops to 32.0% and a low of 11.0%, with the first drop on May 12 appearing to be a reaction to OpenAI's announcement of a new $4 billion venture. A clear catalyst for the sharp 19.0 percentage point drop on May 14 could not be identified from the provided information. The price then saw a significant recovery, with consecutive spikes on May 15 and May 16 likely driven by an internal reorganization at OpenAI and market anticipation of a favorable legal outcome.
Trading volume appears to have been highest during periods of significant price movement, such as the 64.0 contracts traded on May 11, suggesting strong market conviction in reaction to major news events. More recent volume has been lower, indicating a potential period of price consolidation or market uncertainty. The chart has established a clear price range, with a potential support level around the 11.0% low and resistance near the 41.0% high. The 30.0% level seems to be a significant psychological point that the price has repeatedly tested.
Overall, the chart suggests that market sentiment has soured on the prospect of OpenAI going public before Anthropic over the long term. However, the recent and rapid price swings demonstrate that sentiment is highly sensitive and reactive to news related to corporate strategy, funding, and internal organization at both companies. While the odds currently favor Anthropic, the market still prices in a substantial chance for OpenAI to IPO first, reflecting the dynamic and uncertain nature of the AI industry's path to public markets.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: OpenAI
📈 May 16, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 19.0% to 28.0%
What happened: No specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were identified as leading to the 9.0 percentage point spike in OpenAI's prediction market price on May 16, 2026. The primary driver appears to have been the market's anticipation of a favorable outcome in OpenAI's legal dispute with Elon Musk, which resulted in a courtroom win officially dated May 18, 2026 [^][^]. This victory cleared a major legal obstacle, potentially accelerating OpenAI's path to an IPO [^]. Therefore, social media was not a primary driver based on the available information.
📈 May 15, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 11.0% to 19.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 8.0 percentage point spike in the "OpenAI" outcome on May 15, 2026, was likely the announcement of an internal reorganization at OpenAI [^]. On that date, news emerged that Greg Brockman would lead product strategy, consolidating ChatGPT, Codex, and developer-facing API teams [^]. This traditional news event, which appeared to coincide with the price move, likely boosted confidence in OpenAI's operational readiness and a potential 2026 IPO [^]. Social media was likely a contributing accelerant, amplifying the initial news of the internal memo and reorg.
📉 May 14, 2026: 19.0pp drop
Price decreased from 30.0% to 11.0%
What happened: No specific social media activity, traditional news, or market event could be identified in the provided sources to explain a 19.0 percentage point drop for "OpenAI" on May 14, 2026, in the "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?" market [^][^]. While OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar has expressed concerns about a potential IPO delay to 2027, this general sentiment is not tied to the specific date of the alleged market movement [^]. Without specific correlating events, the primary driver for this particular price move remains unsubstantiated. Therefore, social media was not identifiable as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or having any relevant role for this unvalidated event based on the given information.
📉 May 12, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 40.0% to 32.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point drop for "OpenAI" on May 12, 2026, was the company's announcement of a new $4 billion AI deployment venture [^]. This news, reported by traditional outlets, likely decreased market confidence in OpenAI IPOing first, potentially by signaling a shift in strategic focus or reinforcing concerns about IPO readiness and the reported internal debate regarding a 2026 versus 2027 listing [^][^][^]. The announcement coincided directly with the price movement and its negative impact on related markets [^][^][^]. Based on the available research, social media was irrelevant to this specific price movement.
Outcome: Anthropic
📉 May 11, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 75.0% to 60.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 15.0 percentage point drop in the "Anthropic" outcome on May 11, 2026, was likely information regarding Anthropic's ongoing talks to raise $30 billion at an approximate $900 billion valuation [^][^][^][^]. This pursuit of substantial private funding likely reduced the perceived urgency for Anthropic to go public, signaling a potential delay in its IPO and diminishing the probability of it listing before OpenAI. While Anthropic also announced a successful technical fix on May 11, 2026, for agentic misalignment [^][^][^], this positive development is unlikely to have caused a price drop. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver based on the available information.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the OpenAI contract in this market, a "Yes" resolution occurs if OpenAI confirms an Initial Public Offering (IPO) first among the two companies before January 1, 2040. A "No" resolution triggers if OpenAI does not IPO first by that date, meaning Anthropic IPOs first or neither company IPOs before the deadline.
The event must occur before January 1, 2040; the market opened on August 6, 2025, and will close early upon the event's occurrence or by December 31, 2039, 11:59 PM EST if the event has not happened. Resolution is determined by sources such as the SEC, NYSE, NASDAQ, and major financial news outlets, and insider trading is prohibited.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | $0.83 | $0.20 | 81% |
| OpenAI | $0.31 | $0.73 | 31% |
Market Discussion
The market heavily favors Anthropic to IPO first, with an 81% chance compared to OpenAI's 31%. However, discussion among traders largely expresses skepticism towards Anthropic, citing their alleged loss of a government contract and concerns over potential cyber risks from their AI models as reasons against an imminent IPO. A notable insight from the discussion also highlights concerns about the market's design, particularly how collateral might resolve if neither company IPOs by the 2040 deadline.
5. How do OpenAI's and Anthropic's reported revenue, valuation, and fundraising histories compare leading into the 2026-2027 period?
| OpenAI Latest Valuation | $852B (April 1, 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Anthropic Latest Valuation | $380B (February 12, 2026) [^][^][^] |
| OpenAI 2026 Revenue Estimate | $24B–$25B [^][^][^] |
OpenAI holds a significantly higher valuation than Anthropic leading into 2026-2027. OpenAI's latest sourced funding round, reported around April 1, 2026, placed its valuation at $852 billion [^][^][^]. This figure positions OpenAI considerably above Anthropic, which announced a $30 billion Series G funding round on February 12, 2026, at a $380 billion post-money valuation [^][^][^].
OpenAI's estimated revenue surpasses Anthropic's, though Anthropic showed strong valuation growth. OpenAI's estimated revenue for 2026 is projected to be between $24 billion and $25 billion [^][^][^]. In comparison, Anthropic reported a 2026 run-rate or revenue of $14 billion [^][^][^]. Anthropic's $380 billion post-money valuation in 2026 represented approximately 2.1 times its prior $183 billion post-money valuation from a Series F round on September 2, 2025 [^][^].
6. What evidence supports the market consensus favoring an Anthropic IPO before OpenAI in the 2026-2027 timeframe?
| Anthropic IPO odds vs OpenAI | 65-68% odds to IPO first by Dec 31, 2027 (Polymarket) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Anthropic IPO target | As soon as October 2026 (Yahoo Finance) [^] |
| Anthropic projected listing (Futuresearch.ai) | Around March 2027 [^] |
Market consensus favors Anthropic IPOing before OpenAI by late 2027. Prediction market odds, particularly from Polymarket, strongly indicate Anthropic as the frontrunner to complete an initial public offering (IPO) before OpenAI within the 2026-2027 timeframe. Anthropic currently maintains approximately 65-68% odds to go public first, with the market's resolution conditions set for an IPO by December 31, 2027 [^][^].
Several reports indicate Anthropic's focused pursuit of a public listing. A Yahoo Finance report from May 16, 2026, suggests Anthropic is targeting a public listing as early as October 2026 [^]. The same report highlights investor skepticism regarding OpenAI's 2026 IPO timeline, citing reported revenue-target misses and general concerns about its IPO readiness [^]. Additionally, financial media commentary links Anthropic's significant funding push of around $30 billion in May 2026 to its IPO optionality, indicating it is securing major funding in anticipation of a potential IPO [^].
Third-party models further project Anthropic's IPO ahead of OpenAI's. As of March 31, 2026, Futuresearch.ai forecasts Anthropic to list around March 2027 [^]. In contrast, OpenAI is projected to list later in 2027, which aligns with the prediction market's preference for Anthropic to conduct an IPO first [^].
7. What are the key procedural milestones, such as a public S-1 filing, that would act as the most significant near-term catalyst for either OpenAI or Anthropic's IPO?
| Anthropic S-1 Filing Expectation | Could be just weeks away (as of May 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| OpenAI S-1 Filing Expectation | Second half of 2026 (Reuters, October 2025) [^][^] |
| OpenAI Target Listing Year | 2027 [^][^][^][^] |
A public S-1 filing is the key IPO catalyst. This regulatory document formally signals a company's intention to list publicly and is a mandatory requirement for U.S. companies seeking to list securities on a public exchange [^][^]. The S-1 filing provides essential details for investor decisions and forms the basis for public market valuation [^][^][^][^][^]. The process of drafting an S-1 typically spans 6 to 12 weeks, followed by a review period of several months by the SEC [^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Anthropic appears closer to an IPO, engaging legal counsel. The company has reportedly retained legal counsel for preparations and held initial discussions with investment banks regarding an IPO [^][^][^][^][^]. As of May 2026, reports indicate Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing could be "just weeks away," with a projected Nasdaq listing in October 2026 [^].
OpenAI has not filed IPO paperwork, targeting 2027 listing. The company has not yet submitted any IPO documentation [^]. While Reuters suggested in October 2025 that an S-1 filing might occur in the second half of 2026 [^][^], OpenAI's CFO has indicated a target listing year of 2027, citing the stringent public company reporting standards [^][^][^][^]. Some advisors, however, propose an earlier timeline for OpenAI, potentially to preempt Anthropic's market entry [^][^][^][^]. OpenAI also faces hurdles concerning financial transparency and profitability, as the company is currently operating at a loss and does not anticipate achieving profitability until around 2030 [^][^][^].
8. What data is available from secondary markets like Forge Global regarding pre-IPO share prices and trading volume for OpenAI and Anthropic in 2026?
| OpenAI Share Price | $715.37/share as of May 6, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Anthropic Share Price | $264.57/share as of May 16, 2026 [^] |
| Anthropic Implied Valuation | approximately $1 trillion in April 2026 [^][^][^] |
Secondary markets provided specific share prices for OpenAI and Anthropic in May 2026. As of May 2026, Forge Global reported derived share prices for both OpenAI and Anthropic. OpenAI's derived share price was $715.37 per share as of May 6, 2026 [^]. Anthropic's derived share price was $264.57 per share as of May 16, 2026 [^]. These "Forge Prices" are indicative figures, reflecting recent transactions and overall investor activity within the secondary market [^][^].
Anthropic's implied valuation surpassed OpenAI's on secondary markets in April 2026. In April 2026, secondary market valuations on Forge Global indicated Anthropic reaching an implied valuation of approximately $1 trillion [^][^][^]. This figure exceeded OpenAI's approximate $880 billion valuation on the same platform [^][^][^]. Activity in the secondary market for these private companies shows distinct supply-demand imbalances. OpenAI experienced higher sell-side interest compared to buy-side demand, while Anthropic encountered significant buyer-side demand [^][^].
Secondary market valuations reflect speculative interest in these private companies. Both OpenAI and Anthropic remain private companies, meaning their secondary market valuations are primarily driven by speculative interest and the trading of illiquid minority stakes, rather than official IPO timelines [^][^]. While these factors characterize the nature of trading and investor engagement, specific numerical trading volume data for OpenAI and Anthropic from secondary markets in 2026 is not available from the provided information.
9. Which major investors in OpenAI (e.g., Microsoft) and Anthropic (e.g., Amazon, Google) face the most pressure to seek liquidity via an IPO before 2028?
| SoftBank Loan to OpenAI | $40 billion [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Anthropic IPO Optionality | 12 to 24 months [^][^][^] |
| OpenAI & Anthropic IPO Groundwork | 2026 or 2027 [^][^][^][^] |
SoftBank faces significant pressure for liquidity from its OpenAI investment. The company notably secured a $40 billion loan to support its commitment to OpenAI, indicating a strong need for liquidity and IPO readiness for this investor. Microsoft and Nvidia are also identified as major investors in OpenAI who are keenly interested in the company's path to an initial public offering [^][^][^].
Anthropic's strategic investors do not explicitly face IPO liquidity pressure. Major strategic investors Amazon and Google have tied their investments to cloud-compute agreements. The research does not explicitly state that Amazon or Google face pressure to seek liquidity via an IPO, only describing the nature of their investment agreements. However, Anthropic itself has significant pricing power and optionality for an IPO within 12 to 24 months, with third-party investors in recent rounds competing for allocation [^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, currently indicate a higher probability for Anthropic to conduct an IPO before OpenAI, with implied probabilities consistently between 65% and 74% as of May 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] . Odds — Anthropic 67¢">[^][^][^]. Anthropic appears to be taking more concrete steps towards a public listing, reportedly engaging Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan as lead underwriters and retaining Wilson Sonsini as legal counsel [^][^][^][^]. Reports suggest a potential listing for Anthropic could be as early as October 2026 [^][^][^][^].
In contrast, OpenAI's IPO timeline is subject to significant internal debate [^] [^] [^] [^] . While CEO Sam Altman has advocated for an accelerated path, CFO Sarah Friar has cautioned that the company is not yet prepared for public reporting standards, suggesting a potential delay until 2027 [^][^][^][^]. Both companies face massive capital requirements; Anthropic is reportedly targeting a $900 billion valuation in a $30 billion funding round [^][^][^], while OpenAI has raised $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation and faces high compute-related cash burn [^][^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2040
- Closes: January 01, 2040
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, currently indicate a higher probability for Anthropic to conduct an IPO before OpenAI, with implied probabilities consistently between 65% and 74% as of May 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Anthropic appears to be taking more concrete steps towards a public listing, reportedly engaging Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan as lead underwriters and retaining Wilson Sonsini as legal counsel [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Reports suggest a potential listing for Anthropic could be as early as October 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: In contrast, OpenAI's IPO timeline is subject to significant internal debate [^] [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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