Short Answer

Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Anthropic is most likely to IPO first before 2040, with only minor residual uncertainty.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market, which asks if OpenAI will IPO before Anthropic, has traded in a stable, sideways pattern. The contract price for "YES" (OpenAI) has remained within a narrow 10-point band, between 15% and 25%. It opened at 20% and currently trades near the bottom of its range at 18%. The most significant movement was a brief rise to 25% around July 28, which was quickly followed by a retreat to 18% by August 4. The price action suggests a clear resistance level at 25% and a potential support level near 15%.
The low probability assigned to an OpenAI-first IPO is consistent with recent news. Reports indicate Anthropic is targeting a public listing as early as October 2026, while OpenAI's CEO is reportedly aiming for a 2027 debut at a higher valuation. This timeline differential strongly favors Anthropic, explaining the contract's persistently low price. The brief spike to 25% on July 28 lacks a clear catalyst in the provided information and was not sustained, suggesting it was either a short-lived reaction to other information or a low-conviction move that the market corrected. The subsequent price drop back to the lower end of the range realigned the market with the dominant news narrative.
Total volume is moderate at 7,761 contracts. The volume of 191 contracts traded during the move to 25% indicates some capital was deployed behind that peak, but the subsequent fade on low volume suggests a lack of broad follow-through. Overall, the chart indicates a strong and stable market consensus. Traders have consistently priced in a low probability of OpenAI winning the race to an IPO, aligning with public reports that position Anthropic as the likely first mover. The current 18% price reflects the market's view that an OpenAI-first IPO is an unlikely outcome.
  • Since last update (~78d): The model increased Anthropic's probability by +9.6pp, leading the market, as the edge flipped.
  • OpenAI's market probability dropped -13.0pp, driving the model, with the edge compressing.
  • Overall model probability decreased by -12.4pp, and the model-market edge compressed slightly.
  • Anthropic targets an October 2026 IPO, backed by a June 1, 2026 S-1 filing.
  • Anthropic reported operating profit in Q2 2026, positioning for earlier market entry.
  • OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027 for a $1 trillion valuation.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Anthropic 83.0% 89.6% The evidence overwhelmingly supports Anthropic IPOing first, as they are reportedly targeting an IPO as early as October 2026 with a higher private valuation and more favorable path to profitability, while OpenAI is leaning toward delaying its IPO until 2027 due to valuation demands and market volatility.
OpenAI 18.0% 6.2% The evidence strongly indicates Anthropic is expected to IPO first by October 2026, with OpenAI reportedly delaying until 2027 due to valuation targets and market volatility, pushing the probability of OpenAI IPOing first significantly lower; however, IPO timelines are fluid, and unexpected shifts could still lead to OpenAI IPOing earlier or Anthropic later.

Current Context

Anthropic is positioned to IPO ahead of OpenAI. Anthropic is widely expected to debut on public markets first, with recent reports indicating the company is scheduling investor meetings and targeting a potential listing as early as October 2026 [1][2][3]. OpenAI, by contrast, leans toward delaying its IPO until 2027. This delay is attributed primarily to CEO Sam Altman’s reported insistence on a $1 trillion valuation target and market volatility following the SpaceX IPO [2][4][3][5]. Prediction markets and industry observers heavily favor Anthropic to list first, with some estimates placing this probability at over 70% [1][2][3][6]. OpenAI’s 2026 IPO chances, which were 75% last month (June 2026), have since dropped [7].
Anthropic holds a higher private valuation with stronger growth. As of August 2026, Anthropic’s private valuation is approximately $965 billion, surpassing OpenAI’s $852 billion [1][2][8][9]. Anthropic reportedly shows faster growth and a more favorable path to operating profitability [1][2][8][9]. The company, which remains private and has not publicly confirmed an IPO date as of 2026, reported a run-rate revenue exceeding $30 billion by April 6, 2026 [10][11][12]. Both OpenAI and Anthropic are widely regarded as "mega-IPOs" expected in the near future, influencing major index providers to adjust rules for potential index inclusion by June 2026 [13]. This suggests market observers consider these listings imminent [13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Anthropic moves closer to IPO as bankers line up investor...cnbc.com
  2. 2How SpaceX Split the AI IPO Timeline for OpenAI and Anthropic — NonPublicnonpublic.com
  3. 3Anthropic vs OpenAI IPO Date: Who Will List First?indmoney.com
  4. 4What happens if OpenAI delays its IPO to 2027? - PitchBookpitchbook.com
  5. 5OpenAI Leans Toward Holding Up I.P.O. Until Next Yearnytimes.com
  6. 6OpenAI Or Anthropic—Who Will Make Their Public Debut First? - Benzingabenzinga.com
  7. 7Chip Stocks Crash, $20B Fund Margin Called, Frontier Labs: SLOW DOWN AI, Mamdani's Grocery Storesyoutube.com
  8. 8OpenAI Vs Anthropic IPO: How They Compare And What...forbes.com
  9. 9The AI Lab IPO Race Is Now a Profitability Contest | Value Add Pulsevalueaddvc.com
  10. 10Federal Government and Anthropic: Considerations for AIcongress.gov
  11. 11Federal Government and Anthropic: Considerations for AI Innovation and Competitioncongress.gov
  12. 12Federal Government and Anthropic: Considerations for AI...congress.gov
  13. 13Natalia Renta Testimonycongress.gov

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Based on the provided content, the exact triggers for a YES or NO resolution are not explicitly detailed. The market asks which company, OpenAI or Anthropic, will IPO first. The maximum payout date for this market is December 31, 2039. No special settlement conditions are mentioned in the provided text.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Anthropic $0.83 $0.18 83%
OpenAI $0.20 $0.82 18%

Market Discussion

As of August 2026, prediction markets strongly favor Anthropic to conduct its initial public offering (IPO) before OpenAI, with Anthropic confidentially filing for an IPO on June 1, 2026, and reportedly targeting an October 2026 listing window, while OpenAI leans toward delaying its IPO until 2027 [1][2][3]. This sentiment is driven by Anthropic's perceived more credible path to profitability and higher private-market valuation compared to OpenAI, which faces significantly higher projected losses and complex legacy structure questions [1][2]. Both companies are identified as "megaIPOs" and are actively anticipated by the market as of June 2026, though social media commentary reflects widespread skepticism about the sustainability of their business models [4][5][6][7].

Sources (7)
  1. 1The AI Lab IPO Race Is Now a Profitability Contest | Value Add Pulsevalueaddvc.com
  2. 2Anthropic IPO: Filing, Valuation, and What's Next - Yaabotyaabot.com
  3. 3OpenAI Leans Toward Holding Up I.P.O. Until Next Yearnytimes.com
  4. 4OpenAI IPO Delayed: When Will It Go Public? Kalshi Traders Predict 2027 Announcement (2026)foggysky.com
  5. 5Anthropic vs OpenAI IPO | Crazy stock market - Blindteamblind.com
  6. 6Your thoughs on the Anthropic and Open AI IPOreddit.com
  7. 7Natalia Renta Testimonycongress.gov

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 70 Good

Corporate action: boards, bankers, and counsel hold the answer before the announcement

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score73Good

Info fairness is low (40), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score59Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score70Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 3 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
94Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
40High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Corporate action: boards, bankers, and counsel hold the answer before the announcement

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
72Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

2 contracts · worst first

OpenAI23
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Anthropic80
Deep · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
65Mostly confirmed

Most moves carried real volume

2 contracts · worst first

Anthropic65
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

OpenAI—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Anthropic100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
OpenAI100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
59Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 75 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 1.8c slippage (~19% of a 9.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Anthropic80Market scoreLiquidity80Move quality65Rule clarity100
Why 80
Liquidity
80 · Deep · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
65 · Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
OpenAI23Market scoreLiquidity23Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 23
Liquidity
23 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 19, 2026

5. How do Anthropic's and OpenAI's paths to profitability and revenue growth compare heading into their potential IPO windows?

Anthropic ProfitabilityOperating profit in Q2 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]
Anthropic Enterprise RevenueApproximately 80% of total revenue [1][2][5][3][4]
OpenAI Projected Breakeven2030 or later [1][2][3][4]
Anthropic demonstrates a clearer path to near-term profitability than OpenAI. Anthropic reported an operating profit in Q2 2026, unlike OpenAI, which remains significantly unprofitable [1][2][3][4][5]. Anthropic's revenue model heavily relies on enterprise solutions, generating approximately 80% of its total revenue from business clients and products like Claude Code [1][2][5]. This contrasts with OpenAI's approach, which is more dependent on consumer subscriptions and targets a broader, albeit less monetized, active user base [1][2][3][4]. This strategic difference positions Anthropic for a much earlier projected breakeven date, whereas OpenAI is not anticipated to achieve profitability until 2030 or potentially later [1][2][3][4].
Anthropic appears positioned for an earlier IPO than OpenAI. Both companies have confidentially submitted filings for initial public offerings [6]. However, as of mid-2026, OpenAI is reportedly reconsidering the aggressiveness of its near-term IPO plans, influenced by prevailing market conditions and internal discussions, potentially leading to a delay until next year [7][8][9]. Conversely, Anthropic is viewed as progressing toward a sooner public offering, with prediction markets consistently indicating that Anthropic will list before OpenAI [10][11][12][13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1OpenAI Vs Anthropic IPO: How They Compare And What...forbes.com
  2. 2Better IPO Stock: Anthropic vs. OpenAIfinance.yahoo.com
  3. 3Anthropic vs. OpenAI: First AI Large Model IPO, Who Has More Investment Value? Will SpaceX IPO Magnify Anthropic Investment Risk?tradingkey.com
  4. 4IPO AI Market: Anthropic vs. OpenAI [Analysis] [2026] - Klover.aiklover.ai
  5. 5OpenAI Filed for a Trillion-Dollar IPO. The Same Week Anthropic Booked Its First Profit. | TensorFeed.aitensorfeed.ai
  6. 6OpenAI files for US IPO after Anthropic as AI giants head to...reuters.com
  7. 7The AI Lab IPO Race Is Now a Profitability Contest | Value Add Pulsevalueaddvc.com
  8. 8OpenAI's IPO Wait Gives Altman Room to Pace AIrelvehq.com
  9. 9OpenAI Leans Toward Holding Up I.P.O. Until Next Yearnytimes.com
  10. 10Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
  11. 11Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Oddspredictionhunt.com
  12. 12Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? | Prediction Marketscoinbase.com
  13. 13Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO First?lines.com

6. What specific actions and reports support the consensus that Anthropic is targeting an IPO as early as October 2026?

Anthropic IPO TargetOctober 2026 [1][2][3][4]
Anthropic S-1 FilingJune 2026 [1][2][3][4]
OpenAI Revised IPO Target2027 [1][2][4]
Anthropic is targeting an Initial Public Offering as early as October 2026. This timeline is supported by concrete actions, including scheduled investor meetings with major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan Chase. Furthermore, the company confidentially filed an S-1 prospectus with the SEC in June 2026, signaling a clear progression toward a public offering [1][2][3][4].
Market consensus indicates Anthropic leads OpenAI in the IPO process. While Anthropic aims for a 2026 debut, OpenAI is reportedly now looking towards a 2027 debut, having previously targeted late 2026 [1][2][4]. This perceived lead is further corroborated by prediction markets, including Polymarket and Coinbase, which track the "Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?" question and frequently reflect significant market conviction favoring Anthropic [5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Anthropic moves closer to IPO as bankers line up investor...cnbc.com
  2. 2Anthropic and OpenAI race to a $60B+ IPO before end of...app.dealroom.co
  3. 3Anthropic Nears IPO, Schedules Investor Meetings with Banks » HashLyticshashlytics.io
  4. 4Anthropic Is Said to Plan IPO Investor Meetings as Listing...finance.yahoo.com
  5. 5https://polymarket.com/event/will-anthropic-or-openai-ipo-firstpolymarket.com
  6. 6Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com

7. What role does CEO Sam Altman’s reported $1 trillion valuation target play in OpenAI’s IPO timeline?

Minimum IPO Valuation Target$1 trillion [1][2][3][4]
Reported IPO Delay Target2027 [1][2][3][4]
Anthropic's Likelihood of Earlier IPO75-80% [5][6][7][8][9][10]
OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027 due to valuation targets. CEO Sam Altman is reportedly insisting on a minimum IPO valuation of $1 trillion, which is the primary driver for a potential delay in the company's public debut [1][2][3][4]. Altman has reportedly rejected a 2026 IPO if it would mean accepting a lower valuation, with advisors suggesting a 2027 delay as an alternative to meet this target [1][2][3][4]. While OpenAI confidentially filed for an IPO with the SEC on June 8, 2026, the company has publicly stated that no specific timeline has been finalized [4][11].
Market predictions indicate Anthropic is likely to IPO before OpenAI. This reported delay, tied to the ambitious $1 trillion valuation target, correlates with a decreased likelihood for OpenAI to go public in 2026 [12]. As of August 2026, prediction markets reflect this potential postponement, with rival company Anthropic overwhelmingly favored to complete its IPO before OpenAI [5][6][7][8][9][10]. These markets consistently show Anthropic's implied probability of an earlier debut polling above 75-80% [5][6][7][8][9][10].
Sources (12)
  1. 1OpenAI Leans Toward Holding Up I.P.O. Until Next Yearnytimes.com
  2. 2Sam Altman Is Waiting for a $1 Trillion OpenAI Valuation....finance.yahoo.com
  3. 3Altman won't go public for less than $1 trillion, so OpenAI's IPO may slip to 2027the-decoder.com
  4. 4OpenAI IPO 2026: S-1 Filed, $1 Trillion Target, What We Knowaibusinessweekly.net
  5. 5OpenAI IPO Reportedly Delayed To 2027: 'There's No Rational Argument' For $1 Trillion Valuation, Says Gar - Benzingabenzinga.com
  6. 6Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Odds & Predictions 2039kalshi.com
  7. 7Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? | Prediction Marketscoinbase.com
  8. 8Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
  9. 9Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? — Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  10. 10Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? Odds — Anthropic 85¢predictionhunt.com
  11. 11OpenAI confidentially files for IPO, prepping Wall Street...cnbc.com
  12. 12Chip Stocks Crash, $20B Fund Margin Called, Frontier Labs: SLOW DOWN AI, Mamdani's Grocery Storesyoutube.com

8. How does the performance of the SpaceX IPO influence the IPO strategy and timing for OpenAI?

SpaceX Initial Market ValuationOver $2 trillion on first day of trading [1][2][3][4]
SpaceX Stock Performance Post-IPODown 24% since IPO [5][6]
OpenAI Target IPO Year2027 [5][7]
SpaceX's significant IPO debut was followed by stock volatility. SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history on June 12, 2026, raising over $85 billion and achieving a market valuation exceeding $2 trillion on its first day of trading [1][2][3][4]. However, its post-IPO stock performance has been volatile, with shares currently down about 24% since the IPO [5][6]. This performance directly influenced OpenAI's decision to delay its own public offering [5].
OpenAI has delayed its IPO, impacting market expectations. OpenAI is now reportedly leaning toward a 2027 listing, as its CEO aims to avoid going public below a $1 trillion valuation threshold [5][7]. This revised timeline for OpenAI has shifted industry expectations, with prediction markets now heavily favoring Anthropic to complete its IPO first [8][9]. Anthropic is targeting an IPO in October 2026, having confidentially filed its S-1 on June 1, 2026, and is widely expected to go public before the end of 2026 [10][9][11][12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1SpaceX shares debut after biggest IPO in history | CNN Businesscnn.com
  2. 2SpaceX (SPCX) IPO: Live updatescnbc.com
  3. 3SpaceX is public: Everything you need to know post-IPO | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com
  4. 4Elon Musk Becomes World’s First Trillionaire on SpaceX’s First Day of Trading - The New York Timesnytimes.com
  5. 5Altman won't go public for less than $1 trillion, so OpenAI's IPO may slip to 2027the-decoder.com
  6. 6SpaceX Stock Has Plunged: Buy it Now?youtube.com
  7. 7OpenAI Could Delay Its IPO Until 2027. What That Means for Microsoft Stock.barchart.com
  8. 8How SpaceX Split the AI IPO Timeline for OpenAI and Anthropic — NonPublicnonpublic.com
  9. 9Anthropic IPO 2026: $965B Valuation & October Listing Dateaibusinessweekly.net
  10. 10Anthropic IPO: Filing, Valuation, and What's Next - Yaabotyaabot.com
  11. 11Anthropic IPO 2026: $965B, October Listingvalueaddvc.com
  12. 12Anthropic IPO date Odds & Prediction Market Analysis | CryptoSlatecryptoslate.com

9. How does the investor composition of Anthropic versus OpenAI create different pressures or timelines for a public offering?

Anthropic IPO FilingJune 1, 2026 [1]
OpenAI IPO FilingJune 8, 2026 [1]
OpenAI Infrastructure CommitmentOver $600 billion through 2030 [2]
Anthropic targets an October 2026 IPO, prioritizing a first-mover advantage. Despite a significant overlap in their investor bases, including shared venture capitalists and hedge funds [2], [3], Anthropic and OpenAI face distinct pressures influencing their public offering timelines [2]. Anthropic is actively pursuing an IPO with a target date of October 2026, having confidentially filed on June 1, 2026 [1], [2]. This strategy aims to secure a first-mover pricing advantage in the market [1], [2]. Prediction markets currently indicate Anthropic is more likely to go public first, reflecting the reported divergence in listing timelines observed after both companies' confidential filings in June 2026 [4], [5], [6].
OpenAI's 2027 IPO timeline addresses high capital needs and valuation goals. In contrast, OpenAI, which confidentially filed its intentions on June 8, 2026, is reportedly leaning towards a 2027 timeline for its public offering [1]. The company is under considerable pressure due to its substantial capital burn and massive infrastructure commitments, which are projected to exceed $600 billion through 2030 [2]. This delayed timeline is a deliberate strategic effort to ensure the company can meet its ambitious valuation targets, including Sam Altman's stated $1 trillion floor, and to address concerns about market volatility [1], [2]. Therefore, the delay is not indicative of a lack of capital need but rather a calculated move to achieve optimal market conditions and valuation [1], [2].
Sources (6)
  1. 1How SpaceX Split the AI IPO Timeline for OpenAI and Anthropic — NonPublicnonpublic.com
  2. 2OpenAI and Anthropic May Be Rivals, but Investors Aren't...wired.com
  3. 3With AI, investor loyalty is (almost) dead: At least a dozen OpenAI VCs now also back Anthropic | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com
  4. 4OpenAI vs. Anthropic: The Race to IPO Before the AI Hype Peaks Is On - 24/7 Wall St.247wallst.com
  5. 5Who IPOs first? | Myriadmyriad.markets
  6. 6Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO First?lines.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Anthropic is positioned for an initial public offering (IPO) with target dates in October 2026, supported by an active, advanced investor meeting schedule and a June 1, 2026, confidential S-1 filing [1][2][3]. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket show high conviction over 70-80% that Anthropic will complete its IPO in 2026 [2][4][5]. The company reported approximately $47 billion in annualized revenue as of May 2026, with significant enterprise growth [2][6][3]. This revenue trajectory followed a run-rate of $14 billion in February 2026, surging to over $30 billion by April 2026, with an 80% enterprise customer base [7][8].
OpenAI has signaled a likely delay of its IPO until 2027, prioritizing a $1 trillion valuation threshold and citing market volatility as a major factor for not proceeding in 2026 [2][4][3]. Betting on OpenAI in prediction markets has shifted toward 2027 [2][4][5]. This positions Anthropic with a distinct financial profile compared to OpenAI's consumer-focused model [2][6][3].
As of June 25, 2026, major index providers adjusted rules to fast-track inclusion of recently-public, large companies in anticipation of upcoming mega-IPOs, specifically citing Anthropic and OpenAI [9]. Current market expectations, as reflected in testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives, indicate that both OpenAI and Anthropic are expected to conduct initial public offerings in the coming months following June 2026 [9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 08, 2040
  • Closes: January 01, 2040
Sources (9)
  1. 1Anthropic moves closer to IPO as bankers line up investor...cnbc.com
  2. 2How SpaceX Split the AI IPO Timeline for OpenAI and Anthropic — NonPublicnonpublic.com
  3. 3Anthropic vs OpenAI IPO Date: Who Will List First?indmoney.com
  4. 4OpenAI IPO timeline delayed, Kalshi predictionscnbc.com
  5. 5Kalshi, Polymarket Diverge on Anthropic, OpenAI IPO Odds - Blockchain.Newsblockchain.news
  6. 6OpenAI Vs Anthropic IPO: How They Compare And What...forbes.com
  7. 7Federal Government and Anthropic: Considerations for AI Innovation and Competitioncongress.gov
  8. 8Federal Government and Anthropic: Considerations for AIcongress.gov
  9. 9Natalia Renta Testimonycongress.gov