Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Cerebras to officially announce an IPO this year, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Space Exploration Technologies Corp. announced its IPO roadshow on June 4, 2026.
- Quantinuum announced closing an upsized initial public offering on June 5, 2026.
- OpenAI and Anthropic confidentially filed S-1s in June 2026.
- OpenAI and Anthropic are targeting H2 2026 IPOs after S-1 filings.
- Ripple Labs consistently indicates no current plans for a 2026 IPO.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | 99.0% | 99.4% | Public statements indicate an IPO is not currently planned despite high valuation. |
| OpenAI | 57.0% | 65.3% | Its unique corporate structure and Microsoft partnership complicate a traditional IPO. |
| Anduril | 6.0% | 2.2% | As a defense tech company, it typically pursues strategic private funding rounds. |
| Anthropic | 91.0% | 99.0% | Rapid growth and significant funding rounds position it for a potential public offering. |
| Databricks | 11.0% | 4.2% | The data and AI firm is often cited as a strong candidate for an IPO soon. |
Current Context
SpaceX has officially launched its initial public offering process. The company initiated its IPO roadshow on June 4, 2026, for Class A common stock, which will trade under the ticker SPCX. Expected pricing for the shares was set for June 11, 2026, with the first day of trading anticipated for June 12, 2026. An underwriter option is also being contemplated as part of the offering [^][^][^].
Major AI companies OpenAI and Anthropic have confidentially filed for IPOs. OpenAI announced on June 8, 2026, that it confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the SEC. While the company stated that a decision on IPO timing has not yet been made, CNBC reports indicate preparations for a potential offering as early as the fourth quarter of 2026 [^][^]. Anthropic is also reported by CNBC to have confidentially filed its S-1 approximately one week prior to OpenAI's announcement. Both companies are widely considered among the significant AI IPOs expected in late 2026, with market observers frequently targeting the fourth quarter for their public debuts [^][^][^].
Several other high-profile companies are also considered potential IPO candidates. While Fidelity and other industry roundups frequently mention additional companies such as Databricks, Stripe, Revolut, and Canva in their IPO pipelines for the year, these do not yet constitute "official IPO announcements" in the same manner as SpaceX's launched process or the confidential S-1 submissions by OpenAI and Anthropic [^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a very stable, sideways trend, trading within an extremely narrow range between 90.0% and 93.0%. The price began at 93.0% and has since settled at 90.0%, indicating a consistently high perceived probability that multiple companies will announce an IPO. The most notable price movement was a minor drop from the 93.0% resistance level down to the 90.0% support level around June 11. This tight trading channel suggests a market with a very strong and established consensus on the likely outcome.
The market's high valuation is supported by recent news. Context indicates that SpaceX is reported to have launched its IPO process, while major AI firms OpenAI and Anthropic are reported to have confidentially filed for IPOs. These developments strongly support a "YES" resolution. The slight price decrease is counterintuitive given this positive news and may not reflect a change in sentiment. Instead, it could be a minor fluctuation in a low-volume market that had already priced in a high likelihood of these events occurring. Total trading volume is moderate, but sample data points show very low daily volume, which suggests that conviction is high among traders and there is little activity challenging the prevailing price.
Overall, the chart reflects a market with very strong and unwavering sentiment that the conditions for a "YES" resolution will be met. The price has remained above 90.0% for the entire period, establishing this level as a firm floor. The lack of significant price appreciation following the positive news suggests that these announcements were largely anticipated by market participants. The sideways movement within a tight band indicates that the market is now simply awaiting the formal conclusion of these expected IPO announcements.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For the "OpenAI IPO" market, a "Yes" resolution is triggered if OpenAI officially confirms an IPO before January 1, 2027. An IPO is confirmed if the SEC declares its Form S-1 effective, the IPO is priced, or a securities exchange assigns a ticker. Conversely, a "No" resolution occurs if an IPO is not confirmed by this date.
The market opened on November 19, 2025, and will close early if the IPO event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM EST. Resolution happens immediately upon confirmation, even if trading begins after January 1, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Anthropic | $0.91 | $0.10 | 91% |
| Jersey Mike's | $0.93 | $0.08 | 90% |
| Discord | $0.60 | $0.42 | 62% |
| OpenAI | $0.57 | $0.44 | 57% |
| Kraken | $0.46 | $0.60 | 46% |
| Ramp | $0.19 | $0.87 | 19% |
| Shein | $0.19 | $0.85 | 19% |
| Skims | $0.16 | $0.89 | 16% |
| Plaid | $0.15 | $0.86 | 15% |
| Beast Industries | $0.14 | $0.88 | 14% |
| Stripe | $0.13 | $0.91 | 13% |
| Airwallex | $0.08 | $0.94 | 12% |
| Ripple Labs | $0.11 | $0.91 | 12% |
| Databricks | $0.10 | $0.93 | 11% |
| Deel | $0.11 | $0.90 | 11% |
| Applied Intuition | $0.14 | $0.90 | 10% |
| xAI | $0.08 | $0.95 | 10% |
| Mistral AI | $0.13 | $0.91 | 9% |
| Glean | $0.10 | $0.93 | 7% |
| Rippling | $0.07 | $0.94 | 7% |
| Anduril | $0.08 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Anysphere (Cursor) | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Vanta | $0.07 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Brex | $0.04 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Celonis | $0.08 | $0.97 | 3% |
Market Discussion
Traders are actively discussing the IPO prospects of Discord, OpenAI, and Kraken, with Discord holding the highest 'Yes' probability at 62%, supported by claims that the company has already filed. OpenAI's probability has seen a significant drop to 57%, while Kraken's has slightly increased to 46%. Some participants also noted other companies like Cerebras, believing they are close to meeting the market's criteria for an IPO confirmation.
4. How do the reported valuations and funding histories of OpenAI and Anthropic influence their respective IPO strategies and timelines for H2 2026?
| Anthropic Valuation | $965 billion (as of May 2026 Series H) [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| OpenAI Valuation | $852 billion (as of March 2026 funding round) [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| S-1 Submission Date | June 11, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
Both AI firms target H2 2026 IPOs after S-1 filings. OpenAI and Anthropic have formally initiated preparations for potential public listings by submitting confidential S-1 registration statements to the SEC on June 11, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. These submissions pave the way for potential IPOs in the second half of 2026, with OpenAI reportedly targeting September and Anthropic looking at October within Q4 2026, subject to favorable market conditions [^][^][^][^][^].
Anthropic's higher valuation could influence IPO strategy. Anthropic currently holds the distinction of being the most valuable private AI company, with a valuation of $965 billion following a Series H funding round in May 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This valuation surpasses OpenAI's $852 billion, which was established after a March 2026 funding round [^][^][^][^][^][^]. This financial positioning underpins their strategic approaches to entering the public market.
Analysts favor Anthropic's financial narrative for public investors. Financial analysts suggest that Anthropic may have a stronger competitive narrative for its public debut due to its reported superior enterprise revenue trajectory and a clear path to profitability compared to OpenAI [^][^]. This could be a significant factor in how each company is received by public investors.
5. What market conditions, such as VIX levels or index performance, could accelerate or delay IPO announcements from late-stage candidates like Databricks and Stripe before year-end?
| Open IPO Window VIX Threshold | Below 20 for extended periods [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Closed IPO Window VIX Threshold | Approximately 25 or higher [^][^] |
| Databricks 2026 IPO Sentiment | Described 2026 as a "terrible year to go public" [^][^] |
Market volatility significantly impacts the timing of late-stage IPO announcements. An "open" IPO window is typically identified by extended periods where the VIX, a key indicator of market volatility, remains below 20 [^][^]. Conversely, IPO activity generally declines when the VIX rises above 20, with the window potentially closing if the VIX reaches approximately 25 or higher [^][^]. Market commentary from mid-June 2026 indicated that cooling volatility could accelerate IPO plans, whereas increased volatility would likely lead to delays [^].
A crowded IPO market deters late-stage candidates like Databricks and Stripe. In addition to volatility, a congested IPO environment is a critical factor in timing new listings [^][^]. Databricks' CEO Ali Ghodsi explicitly stated that 2026 was a "terrible year to go public," preferring a quieter window due to the presence of other major IPOs such as SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI [^][^]. Similarly, Stripe's approach, which includes ongoing tender offers and a "no rush" stance, reflects a heightened sensitivity to prevailing capital market conditions and potential IPO crowding [^][^]. Despite some predictions of a Stripe announcement before June 1, 2027, the overall market landscape remains a primary determinant for such companies [^].
6. What public statements, recent C-suite hires, or regulatory filings from Ripple Labs and Kraken signal their readiness for an IPO in 2026?
| Kraken IPO Readiness | About 80% ready, targeting Q3 2026 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Ripple IPO Plans | No plans or timeline, intends to remain private [^][^][^] |
| Kraken Regulatory Filing | Confidential draft S-1 submitted Nov 19, 2025 [^][^] |
Ripple consistently indicates no current plans for a 2026 initial public offering. The company has consistently expressed its intention to remain a private entity, with no current plans or timeline to pursue an initial public offering (IPO) in 2026. In January 2026, President Monica Long stated that Ripple plans to stay private and does not require public-market capital [^][^][^]. This stance was reinforced in June 2026 by CEO Brad Garlinghouse, who emphasized "no rush, no timeline" for an IPO and referenced the challenges faced by other crypto firms after listing [^][^].
Kraken has actively prepared for a potential IPO, targeting Q3 2026. Conversely, Kraken has signaled its readiness for an IPO, with its parent company, Payward, confidentially submitting a draft registration statement on Form S-1 with the SEC on November 19, 2025 [^][^]. Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi confirmed this filing in April 2026, noting that an earlier attempt was paused due to market conditions [^]. By May 2026, Sethi stated Kraken was "about 80% ready" to go public, with a potential target window of Q3 2026, pending market conditions and SEC review [^][^][^].
7. Beyond a confidential S-1 submission, what are the key procedural milestones required by the SEC for OpenAI and Anthropic to complete their IPOs in 2026?
| Confidential S-1 submissions by OpenAI and Anthropic | June 2026 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Typical time for initial SEC comments | 27-30 days [^][^][^][^] |
| Typical number of SEC review rounds | 2 to 5 rounds [^][^][^][^] |
OpenAI and Anthropic confidentially filed S-1s to preserve IPO options. Both companies submitted these filings in June 2026, characterizing the action as a means to maintain the 'option' to go public [^][^]. They have not yet confirmed any official IPO dates for 2026, noting that such a decision would depend on prevailing market conditions and their respective business strategies [^][^].
The standard IPO process involves several key SEC review stages. Following a confidential S-1 submission, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) typically issues its initial comments within approximately 27-30 days [^][^][^][^]. This initiates an iterative review process that commonly includes 2 to 5 rounds of comments and subsequent revised filings [^][^][^][^]. Before a company can commence its 4-7 day roadshow, it is required to publicly file its registration statement with the SEC at least 15 days beforehand [^][^][^]. The final procedural milestones involve the SEC declaring the registration statement effective, the pricing of the offering, and the execution of the underwriting agreement, with trading commencing on the subsequent day [^][^][^].
8. What specific regulatory hurdles from the SEC could impact the IPO ambitions of crypto-focused companies like Kraken and Ripple Labs this year?
| Ripple Labs IPO Priority | Staying private due to strong balance sheet, strategic investment, and lingering legal complexities [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Kraken IPO Filing Status | Confidential draft S-1 registration statement filed with SEC [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Kraken IPO Delay Reason | Market volatility and valuation fluctuations, conditional on improved market conditions [^] |
Ripple Labs is currently prioritizing private status due to legal and market factors. Ripple Labs is presently choosing to remain a private company, citing its strong balance sheet and strategic investments as primary reasons [^][^][^][^]. This decision is also significantly influenced by lingering legal complexities concerning the classification of its equity as a security and broader regulatory uncertainties [^][^][^][^]. Although Ripple successfully reached a settlement framework with the SEC in May 2025, which de-risked its legal standing [^][^], management still considers legal clearance a necessary but insufficient prerequisite for a potential IPO in 2026 [^][^].
Kraken's IPO is stalled by market conditions, not specific SEC hurdles. Kraken's parent company, Payward, has confidentially filed a draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC [^][^][^][^][^]. However, the company's IPO plans have faced delays primarily due to market volatility and fluctuations in valuation [^]. Leadership has indicated that a potential public offering is conditional on improved market conditions [^]. Critically, the available research does not identify any specific SEC regulatory hurdles currently impacting Kraken's IPO ambitions for the current year.
Future SEC regulatory shifts are not immediate IPO impediments. While the SEC is poised to implement substantial regulatory changes in 2026, including new guidance on crypto asset classification [^][^], and the proposed 'Registered Offering Reform' may offer long-term benefits to crypto companies [^][^][^], these upcoming shifts are not cited as current impediments to the immediate IPO plans of either Kraken or Ripple Labs.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. announced the launch of its initial public offering roadshow on June 4, 2026, for 555,555,555 Class A shares, with an expected offering price of $135.00/share and an application to list under "SPCX" on Nasdaq [^][^]. Quantinuum announced the closing of an upsized initial public offering on June 5, 2026, at $60.00/share for 28,000,000 Class A shares, with expected trading starting June 4, 2026 [^]. INNIO launched a roadshow for its initial public offering on May 26, 2026 [^], and later announced the pricing of an upsized initial public offering on June 3, 2026, at $27.00/share for 90,000,000 common shares, expected to begin trading June 4, 2026, on Nasdaq [^].
Other companies have also announced recent IPO pricings, with Liftoff Mobile announcing its IPO pricing on June 3, 2026, for 19,000,000 shares at $23.00/share, expected to begin trading June 4, 2026, on Nasdaq [^] . Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining announced IPO pricing on June 3, 2026, for 20,000,000 shares at $13.50/share, also expected to begin trading June 4, 2026, on NYSE [^]. PayPay announced pricing on March 11, 2026, for an IPO of 54,987,214 ADSs at $16 per ADS, with expected trading beginning March 12, 2026, on Nasdaq [^]. Humacyte, Inc. also announced a proposed public offering on June 10, 2026 [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
- Trigger: Announced the launch of its initial public offering roadshow on June 4, 2026, for 555,555,555 Class A shares, with an expected offering price of $135.00/share and an application to list under "SPCX" on Nasdaq [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Quantinuum announced the closing of an upsized initial public offering on June 5, 2026, at $60.00/share for 28,000,000 Class A shares, with expected trading starting June 4, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: INNIO launched a roadshow for its initial public offering on May 26, 2026 [^] , and later announced the pricing of an upsized initial public offering on June 3, 2026, at $27.00/share for 90,000,000 common shares, expected to begin trading June 4, 2026, on Nasdaq [^] .
12. Related News
Last updated: June 11, 2026, 16:42 UTC
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13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXIPO-26-CEREBRAS: YES (May 14, 2026)
