Which Companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Cerebras is most likely to officially announce an IPO before 2027, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Specific macroeconomic indicators signal an open IPO window for tech firms.
- Anduril has not yet filed an S-1, eyeing a late 2026 IPO.
- Deel appears better positioned for a public offering before 2027.
- Kraken has largely resolved SEC legal challenges, but ongoing issues persist.
- Exyn Technologies, Inc. IPO pricing was announced May 14, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | 98.0% | 97.4% | SpaceX has matured as a private company, and market conditions may favor a public offering. |
| Anduril | 6.0% | 2.2% | Anduril may prioritize private funding rounds over a public offering this year. |
| OpenAI | 89.0% | 85.5% | OpenAI's rapid growth and significant valuation make it a strong candidate for an IPO. |
| Databricks | 20.0% | 10.1% | Databricks may continue to secure private funding rather than pursuing an IPO this year. |
| Anthropic | 76.0% | 68.6% | Anthropic's increasing market presence and valuation could lead to an IPO. |
Current Context
Confirmed IPOs have occurred early in the year. PayPay announced the closing of its initial public offering on March 30, 2026, with its American Depositary Shares (ADSs) beginning to trade on Nasdaq under the ticker PAYP on March 12, 2026. The offering involved 54,987,214 ADSs priced at $16 per ADS, with underwriters fully exercising their option for an additional 8,248,081 ADSs [^]. Similarly, METiS TechBio (7666.HK) confirmed its IPO milestone, listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) on May 13, 2026. The company raised over HKD 2.1 billion by offering 201,229,000 H shares globally [^].
SpaceX's IPO plans are in motion but not officially confirmed. Reports indicate that SpaceX is planning to price its IPO as early as June 11, with Nasdaq chosen as the listing venue, and a roadshow set to launch on June 4. However, this information, presented in a Reuters-syndicated report, represents an "aiming/planning" statement and does not constitute an official company announcement of final IPO terms [^].
General IPO calendars provide estimates, but lack official company announcements. While resources like Renaissance Capital's IPO calendar provide scheduled IPOs, showing a list for May 25, 2026, including Tarsier Pharma (TARX) and MetaOptics (MOT), the provided excerpt lacks full company-official announcement details [^]. Likewise, the Nasdaq IPO listings page states no announcements were found for a specific date, and it notes that expected IPO dates are estimates based on filings rather than official company confirmations. Therefore, these pages do not serve as proof of companies officially announcing IPOs this year [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a stable, sideways trading pattern, consistently reflecting a high probability of a YES resolution. The price has remained within a narrow 6-point range, fluctuating between a support level around 89.0% and a resistance level at 95.0%. The market began trading at 94.0% and is currently at the same price, indicating a lack of significant trend over the observed period. The high starting probability suggests that traders entered the market with a strong expectation that at least some companies would announce IPOs during the year.
The market's high conviction appears to be grounded in real-world events that occurred early in the year. The price has held firm, reflecting the news that PayPay announced the closing of its IPO in March 2026 and METiS TechBio confirmed its listing in May 2026. Since the market question is plural ("Which Companies"), these events likely satisfied the resolution criteria for many traders, cementing the price near its peak. The total traded volume of 764 contracts, combined with recent periods of zero volume, suggests that trading activity has slowed significantly. This pattern indicates a strong market consensus, with little disagreement or speculation remaining, as the outcome is widely considered to be determined.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 May 19, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 42.0% to 50.0%
Outcome: Kraken
What happened: No social media activity regarding Kraken's IPO on May 19, 2026, is evidenced in the provided research. Traditional news reports from around that period indicated that Kraken's IPO was likely delayed until at least 2027 due to market conditions, rather than an impending 2026 announcement [^]. Therefore, the 8.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for Kraken appears to be primarily driven by either speculative trading, misinformation, or market noise, as no specific, positive catalysts for a 2026 IPO were identified. Social media activity was irrelevant in explaining this price movement.
📉 May 18, 2026: 16.0pp drop
Price decreased from 58.0% to 42.0%
Outcome: Kraken
What happened: The primary driver of the 16.0 percentage point drop was the market's ongoing reassessment of Kraken's IPO prospects due to persistent unfavorable crypto market conditions. Kraken had paused its IPO plans in March 2026 due to these conditions [^][^][^][^], and its valuation reportedly fell significantly to $13.3 billion in April 2026 from $20 billion [^][^]. While the confidential filing was reaffirmed in April, these financial challenges likely lowered confidence in an official IPO announcement during 2026, leading to the price movement on May 18, 2026. Social media was irrelevant, as no related activity was found.
📈 May 16, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 48.0% to 57.0%
Outcome: Kraken
What happened: The primary driver of Kraken's prediction market price spike on May 16, 2026, appears to be the reaffirmation of its confidential IPO filing and commitment to a public offering by Co-CEO Arjun Sethi at a Semafor World Economy event on April 14, 2026 [^][^]. This official statement, occurring approximately a month before the spike, likely fueled renewed investor confidence despite earlier pauses in IPO plans. Additionally, a recovery in Bitcoin's price, seeing an approximately 9% gain in April 2026, may have acted as a contributing catalyst for optimism around crypto-related IPOs [^]. Based on the available information, no specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives directly preceding or coinciding with the price move was identified.
📉 May 15, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 57.0% to 48.0%
Outcome: Kraken
What happened: The primary driver of the Kraken prediction market price drop on May 15, 2026, was likely a continued market re-evaluation following the company's announcement on March 18, 2026, that it had paused its IPO plans due to difficult market conditions and a slump in the crypto sector [^][^][^][^]. While a listing in the second quarter of 2026 or later was initially considered a possibility, the absence of further positive developments by mid-May likely caused market participants to further reduce their expectations for an IPO this year [^][^]. No specific social media activity or new traditional news announcements were identified as immediate triggers for the May 15th movement. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a primary or contributing driver in this instance.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if Kraken officially confirms an IPO before January 1, 2027. An IPO is confirmed if the SEC declares their Form S-1 effective, the IPO is priced, or a securities exchange assigns a ticker. If an IPO is not confirmed by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "No" and close at 11:59 pm EST, with projected payout 5 minutes after closing. The resolution occurs immediately upon confirmation, regardless of when trading begins.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | $1.00 | $0.03 | 98% |
| Jersey Mike's | $0.94 | $0.07 | 94% |
| OpenAI | $0.92 | $0.11 | 89% |
| Anthropic | $0.77 | $0.24 | 76% |
| Discord | $0.59 | $0.43 | 56% |
| Kraken | $0.49 | $0.52 | 49% |
| Databricks | $0.20 | $0.83 | 20% |
| Ramp | $0.15 | $0.89 | 16% |
| Applied Intuition | $0.14 | $0.88 | 15% |
| Beast Industries | $0.14 | $0.88 | 14% |
| Plaid | $0.15 | $0.88 | 12% |
| Rippling | $0.11 | $0.92 | 12% |
| Skims | $0.14 | $0.93 | 12% |
| Anysphere (Cursor) | $0.11 | $0.93 | 11% |
| Mistral AI | $0.13 | $0.92 | 11% |
| Shein | $0.18 | $0.90 | 11% |
| Stripe | $0.11 | $0.91 | 10% |
| Deel | $0.14 | $0.90 | 9% |
| Celonis | $0.10 | $0.94 | 8% |
| Ripple Labs | $0.15 | $0.93 | 8% |
| xAI | $0.09 | $0.92 | 8% |
| Anduril | $0.09 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Glean | $0.14 | $0.92 | 6% |
| Brex | $0.06 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Vanta | $0.10 | $0.96 | 4% |
| Airwallex | $0.09 | $0.99 | 2% |
Market Discussion
Traders on this market are most confident in Anthropic announcing an IPO this year, with its probability holding steady at 76%. Discord's likelihood recently dipped to 56%, while Kraken remains a near 50/50 prospect at 49%. Discussions feature 'Yes' arguments for companies like Discord, citing prior filings, and strong belief in imminent IPOs for others like Cerebras, though the inclusion of acquired entities like xAI is also debated.
5. What macroeconomic indicators, such as VIX levels and the Renaissance IPO Index performance, signal that an 'IPO window' is open for tech firms like Databricks and Ramp before 2027?
| Databricks Valuation | $134 billion (December 2025) [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Ramp Valuation | $32 billion (November 2025) [^][^] |
| Ramp IPO Odds (before May 2027) | Approximately 30% (May 2026) [^][^] |
Specific macroeconomic indicators signal an open IPO window for tech firms. An IPO window for tech firms is anticipated before 2027, driven by specific macroeconomic indicators. Favorable conditions for new share pricing are typically marked by the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) remaining under 20, ideally in the mid-teens, signaling lower market uncertainty, while a VIX of 25 or above indicates market turbulence [^][^][^][^]. Other crucial factors include a stable economy, moderating inflation, and easing interest rates, which contrast with the "IPO winter" of 2022-2024 caused by rising interest rates and uncertainty [^][^][^]. A strong performance of the Renaissance IPO Index also contributes to an open window [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. A rebound in IPO activity was observed in 2025, with cautious optimism for 2026, particularly for AI-related technology companies [^][^][^].
Databricks and Ramp exhibit strong investor interest, eyeing potential IPOs. Both Databricks and Ramp are prominent tech firms that benefit from strong investor interest and performance within the artificial intelligence (AI) sector [^][^]. Databricks, valued at $134 billion in December 2025, is a highly anticipated IPO candidate, with its CEO suggesting a potential 2026 listing [^][^][^][^][^]. However, substantial funding rounds have granted Databricks financial flexibility, potentially allowing it to delay its IPO to a more opportune market, with timing influenced by AI market sentiment and overall macroeconomic conditions [^][^][^][^][^]. Similarly, Ramp, valued at $32 billion in November 2025, aims to be "IPO-ready" by late 2026 [^][^][^]. Despite this, Ramp has no set timeline due to sufficient capital, and as of May 2026, the likelihood of it going public before May 2027 was approximately 30% [^][^].
6. What do the latest S-1 or confidential filing statuses for high-valuation candidates like Anduril and Celonis reveal about their concrete steps toward an IPO before 2027?
| Anduril IPO Timeline | Expected late 2026 to 2027 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Anduril Valuation (Series H) | Approximately $60 billion [^][^][^] |
| Celonis Valuation | $13 billion (as of August 2022) [^][^] |
Anduril has not yet filed an S-1, eyeing a late 2026 IPO. While Anduril, a defense technology company, has not yet filed an S-1 registration statement with the SEC [^][^][^], its founder, Palmer Luckey, has indicated that an IPO is "definitely" on the roadmap and expected "in the next few years," with a plausible window being late 2026 to 2027 [^][^][^][^]. Key prerequisites for a public listing include achieving profitability and demonstrating the success of its manufacturing facilities [^]. Notably, Fury production commenced ahead of schedule in March 2026 [^][^].
Recent growth and significant contracts underscore Anduril's increasing market presence. Recent developments further illustrate Anduril's financial momentum, including a reported Series H funding round that valued the company at approximately $60 billion [^][^][^]. In March 2026, the company secured a significant 10-year, $20 billion enterprise contract with the U.S. Army [^][^][^]. Anduril's revenue is projected to more than double, growing from an estimated $2 billion in 2025 to $4.3 billion in 2026 [^][^].
Celonis remains private, with no announced S-1 filing or IPO timeline. In contrast, Celonis, a prominent leader in process mining technology, remains a privately held company [^]. The company has not publicly announced an S-1 filing or provided a specific timeline for an IPO before 2027 [^]. Celonis has successfully raised over $2.5 billion in funding, achieving a reported valuation of $13 billion as of August 2022 [^][^]. Investors interested in potential IPO plans are advised to monitor official company communications for any future updates [^].
7. How do the late-stage private funding and valuation growth of fintechs Deel and Ramp compare as indicators of their readiness for a public offering before 2027?
| Deel Annualized Revenue | $1.4 billion by February 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Ramp Valuation | $32 billion in late 2025 [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Deel IPO Target | As soon as 2026 [^][^][^] |
Deel appears better positioned for a public offering before 2027. Explicit IPO statements and strategic hires underscore Deel's readiness, despite facing a pending lawsuit [^][^][^][^][^]. The company reported a $1 billion annual revenue run rate in the first quarter of 2025, with an estimated $1.4 billion in annualized revenue projected by February 2026 [^][^]. Deel has also achieved profitability for three consecutive years, maintaining approximately 16% EBITDA margins [^][^]. In October 2025, Deel secured $300 million in Series E funding, which elevated its valuation to $17.3 billion [^][^][^][^][^]. Further signaling its intent, Joe Kauffman was appointed President and CFO in November 2025 [^], and the company has publicly declared its IPO preparations for as early as 2026 [^][^][^].
Ramp shows strong growth but prioritizes private funding over immediate IPO. Ramp exhibits robust financial growth, achieving $1 billion in annualized revenue by August 2025 and forecasting $1.4 billion in annual recurring revenue by the second quarter of 2026 [^][^][^][^]. The company reported being free cash flow positive in early 2025 and anticipates generating approximately $125 million in free cash flow in 2026 [^][^][^]. In November 2025, Ramp completed a $300 million primary financing round, increasing its valuation to $32 billion [^][^][^][^][^]. By May 2026, the company was reportedly in discussions to raise $750 million at a pre-money valuation exceeding $40 billion [^][^][^][^][^]. While Ramp aims to be "IPO-ready by late 2026" by building necessary infrastructure, it has not established an official IPO date [^]. Its sustained pursuit of significant private funding rounds suggests a potential preference for continued private expansion before a public offering [^], with prediction markets indicating a low likelihood of an IPO announcement before mid-2027 [^].
8. Beyond media reports, which official sources and SEC filing types provide the definitive signal for an IPO announcement from candidates like Databricks and Jersey Mike's?
| Definitive IPO Signal 1 | Public filing of Form S-1 registration statement [^] |
|---|---|
| Definitive IPO Signal 2 | RULE-424(b) prospectus filing [^] |
| Jersey Mike's Confidential S-1 Submission | 2026-04-20 [^] |
Definitive IPO announcements rely on specific public SEC filings. The definitive signals for an Initial Public Offering (IPO) announcement are the public filing of a Form S-1 registration statement or a subsequent RULE-424(b) prospectus filing [^][^]. A publicly filed Form S-1, or an S-1/A amendment, is considered the conclusive SEC document indicating a company has officially entered the IPO registration process. Following the effectiveness and pricing of an offering, a RULE-424(b) prospectus filing also represents a definitive IPO-offering-stage SEC record [^][^]. While emerging growth companies can confidentially submit a draft registration statement, this preliminary step is not the final IPO progress signal; it must eventually be made public [^].
Jersey Mike's and Databricks' filings are not definitive IPO announcements. For Jersey Mike's, the company publicly announced a "confidential submission of a draft registration statement on Form S-1" on April 20, 2026 [^]. This action demonstrates an intent to pursue an IPO, but it is not equivalent to a public S-1 registration statement filing, which is the definitive signal [^][^]. In the case of Databricks, the identified SEC document is a Form D/A (Regulation D) filing [^]. This specific form indicates a private offering rather than an IPO registration statement (Form S-1), meaning it does not constitute a definitive IPO announcement signal [^].
9. What specific SEC legal challenges or approvals are critical for crypto firms Kraken and Ripple Labs to clear before they can announce a US IPO?
| Kraken Staking Settlement | $30M, ceased staking program (Feb 2023) [^] |
|---|---|
| Ripple Civil Penalty Payment | Over $125 million, with $50M paid to SEC (May/June 2025) [^], [^] |
| Ripple Bad Actor Waiver | Restored ability to raise private capital [^] |
Kraken has largely resolved its major SEC legal challenges, but ongoing issues persist. In February 2023, the SEC charged Kraken for operating an unregistered staking-as-a-service program, which led to the company discontinuing the service and paying a $30 million settlement without admitting wrongdoing [^]. A significant development occurred in March 2025 when the SEC dismissed its civil enforcement action against Kraken "with prejudice," preventing the SEC from refiling those specific charges [^]. However, a federal judge reportedly rejected certain Kraken defenses in January 2025, suggesting that the posture of ongoing SEC enforcement litigation could still influence pre-IPO disclosure requirements [^].
Ripple Labs has navigated a complex and protracted SEC lawsuit, nearing resolution. The company has faced significant legal scrutiny from the SEC since December 2020, with summary judgment outcomes including a permanent restraint or enjoinment and a civil penalty of "over $125 million" [^]. More recently, in May/June 2025, the SEC and Ripple jointly requested a court ruling to dissolve a Final Judgment injunction and determine the release of a $125,035,150 civil-penalty escrow, with $50 million earmarked for payment to the SEC [^]. Critically for IPO prospects, Ripple secured an SEC waiver removing its "bad actor" designation, which has restored its ability to raise private capital using exemptions, directly impacting the timing and feasibility of announcing an initial public offering [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Upcoming IPOs include HawkEye 360, Inc., with underwriters expecting delivery on or about May 8, 2026, at an initial public offering price of $26.00 [^] . Exyn Technologies, Inc. IPO units were priced at $7.75, and underwriters expect delivery on or about May 18, 2026 [^]. Pricing for Exyn Technologies, Inc. was announced May 14, 2026 [^]. Nasdaq's IPO calendar page cautions that expected IPO dates are estimated, not official, and did not indicate IPO announcements for 2026-05-25 [^].
Separately, SpaceX IPO timing is widely reported as targeting a June 12, 2026 Nasdaq debut with pricing June 11 [^] [^] [^] . This reported timing is not equivalent to a universally verifiable, official IPO announcement schedule without cross-checking company or SEC filings and official press releases [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Upcoming IPOs include HawkEye 360, Inc., with underwriters expecting delivery on or about May 8, 2026, at an initial public offering price of $26.00 [^] .
- Trigger: Exyn Technologies, Inc.
- Trigger: IPO units were priced at $7.75, and underwriters expect delivery on or about May 18, 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Pricing for Exyn Technologies, Inc.
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXIPO-26-CEREBRAS: YES (May 14, 2026)
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