EUR/USD price range on Apr 29, 2026 at 10am EDT?
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully higher odds than the market for the EUR/USD price range on Apr 29, 2026 at 10am EDT to be 1.17000 to 1.17199, with model probability at 35.2% versus market probability at 25.0%.
1. Executive Verdict
- Here are the key claims:
- Historical interest rate differential futures data for Dec 2025 is unavailable. IMF projects different 2025 real GDP growth rates for Euro Area/US. Italian BTP-Bund spread showed varied movement during Q1 2026. March 2026 EUR futures positioning data is currently unavailable. * Specific CBO 2026 federal budget deficit projections are currently unavailable.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.17200 to 1.17399 | 19.0% | 26.8% | Stronger Eurozone economic growth relative to the US could boost the Euro. |
| 1.17000 to 1.17199 | 25.0% | 35.2% | Anticipated dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy may weaken the US Dollar. |
| 1.16800 to 1.16999 | 17.0% | 24.0% | Positive investor sentiment towards Eurozone assets could support the currency. |
| 1.17600 to 1.17799 | 1.0% | 1.4% | Significant interest rate divergence favoring the European Central Bank could strengthen the Euro. |
| 1.15799 or below | 2.0% | 2.8% | Persistent high inflation in the US might lead to a more hawkish Fed stance. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the limited data available, this prediction market is in its earliest stages of price discovery. The price action has been minimal, opening at a 0.0% probability and establishing a very narrow trading range between 0.0% and 2.0%. The most significant movement was a single spike from 0.0% to the current price of 2.0%. With no additional context or news provided, this price increase cannot be attributed to any specific external event. Given the nascent stage of the market, the movement is likely due to initial bids being placed rather than a reaction to new information.
The total trading volume is extremely low, with only two contracts traded to date. This minimal activity indicates that the market is highly illiquid and lacks broad participation. The conviction behind the current 2.0% price is therefore very weak, as it reflects the actions of a very small number of traders. It is too early to identify any meaningful support or resistance levels; the only observable price points are the 0.0% floor and the current 2.0% ceiling. The chart suggests that market sentiment is still forming and is highly uncertain, with the current price representing a tentative opening valuation rather than a firm consensus.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the EUR/USD open price on April 29, 2026, at 10 AM EDT is between 1.17000 and 1.17199; otherwise, it resolves to "No" as the event is mutually exclusive. Trading for this market opens on April 28, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT and closes on April 29, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT, with payouts projected immediately after. The outcome is verified using data from ICE (TradingView), and individuals employed by Source Agencies or possessing material, non-public information are prohibited from trading.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.17000 to 1.17199 | $0.38 | $0.73 | 25% |
| 1.17200 to 1.17399 | $0.19 | $0.87 | 19% |
| 1.16800 to 1.16999 | $0.33 | $0.73 | 17% |
| 1.17400 to 1.17599 | $0.10 | $0.95 | 7% |
| 1.15799 or below | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| 1.17600 to 1.17799 | $0.06 | $0.97 | 1% |
| 0 or above | $0.03 | $1.00 | 0% |
| 1.15800 to 1.15999 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| 1.16000 to 1.16199 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| 1.16200 to 1.16399 | $0.06 | $1.00 | 0% |
| 1.16400 to 1.16599 | $0.08 | $0.97 | 0% |
| 1.16600 to 1.16799 | $0.18 | $0.92 | 0% |
| 1.17800 to 1.17999 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| 1.18000 to 1.18199 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 0% |
| 1.18200 to 1.18399 | $0.03 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Why Can't Fed Funds/Euribor December 2025 Differential Be Determined?
| Market-implied differential | Cannot be determined from research [^] |
|---|---|
| Required contracts | 30-Day Fed Funds December 2025 futures (ZQZ25), 3-Month Euribor December 2025 futures (IMZ25) [^] |
| Required historical period | April 1-7, 2026 [^] |
Historical futures data is unavailable for the requested interest rate differential. The market-implied interest rate differential between the December 2025 Fed Funds futures contract and the December 2025 Euribor futures contract, as priced during the first week of April 2026, cannot be determined from the provided web research results. The available sources, while generally relevant to Fed Funds and Euribor futures, do not contain the specific historical price data for the December 2025 contracts as they were traded during the requested April 1-7, 2026 period.
Specific contract prices are essential to calculate the precise differential. To calculate this differential, specific settlement or closing prices for the 30-Day Fed Funds December 2025 futures contract (ZQZ25) and the 3-Month Euribor December 2025 futures contract (IMZ25) would be necessary for the specified timeframe. While sources such as Barchart.com [^] and Investing.com [^] typically offer futures quotes and historical data, the exact historical data points for these precise date ranges and contracts were not present in the furnished research results. Without these specific historical contract prices, it is not possible to derive the implied interest rates and subsequently compute their differential.
5. What is the projected 2025 GDP growth difference between Euro Area and US?
| US 2025 Real GDP Growth | 1.7% [^] |
|---|---|
| Euro Area 2025 Real GDP Growth | 1.1% [^] |
| Euro Area vs US 2025 GDP Growth Difference | -0.6 percentage points [^] |
IMF projects different 2025 real GDP growth rates for major economies. According to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) October 2025 World Economic Outlook, the United States is projected to achieve a real GDP growth rate of 1.7% in 2025 [^]. In comparison, the Euro Area's real GDP growth is forecast at 1.1% for the same year [^]. These projections are detailed in Table A1, "Summary of World Output Projections," within the report's appendix [^].
The Euro Area's 2025 GDP growth is projected slower than the United States. To determine the difference in 2025 real GDP growth between the Euro Area and the United States, subtracting the Euro Area's projected growth from that of the United States reveals a difference of -0.6 percentage points (1.1% for the Euro Area minus 1.7% for the United States) [^]. This indicates that the Euro Area is expected to experience a slower real GDP growth rate than the United States by 0.6 percentage points in 2025, according to the IMF's analysis [^].
6. What was the Italian BTP-Bund spread in Q1 2026?
| Spread on Feb 12, 2026 | 61 basis points [^] |
|---|---|
| Spread on Mar 31, 2026 | 95 basis points [^] |
| Q1 2026 Market Review | Long-term interest rates analysis available [^] |
The BTP-Bund spread showed varied movement in Q1 2026. During the first quarter of 2026, the yield spread between 10-year Italian government bonds (BTPs) and 10-year German Bunds exhibited fluctuations. Specific observations within this period include a spread of 61 basis points on February 12, 2026 [^]. By the quarter's end, on March 31, 2026, the spread was recorded at 95 basis points [^], indicating an upward trend over this period.
A precise 90-day average for the quarter is unavailable. While these data points provide insights into the spread's range of movement, a specific 90-day average for the entire January 1 to March 31, 2026, period is not explicitly provided. A more comprehensive analysis, including a detailed overview of long-term interest rates for Q1 2026, could potentially be found in resources such as a 'Q1 2026 Market Review' [^].
7. When Will March 2026 EUR Futures COT Data Be Released?
| Report Status | Not yet released, covers future period [^] |
|---|---|
| Report Date Covered | Last Tuesday of March 2026 (March 31, 2026) [^] |
| Expected Release | Early April 2026 [^] |
Information for March 2026 EUR futures positioning is currently unavailable. The specific net positioning of 'Non-Commercial' traders in EUR futures, as a percentage of total open interest, for the final CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report of March 2026, cannot be provided at this time. This report would typically cover positions as of March 31, 2026, a future date for which data has not yet been officially released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or its aggregators [^].
Data from the CFTC for March 2026 is not yet public. No specific data points or statistics from web research related to March 2026 COT reports are currently available. While URLs for potential future reports, such as a historical viewable link for March 31, 2026, exist [^], the actual content will only be publicly accessible after its official release, which is anticipated in early April 2026. Therefore, specific facts, data, and statistics for this future period cannot be provided yet.
8. When Will CBO Release 2026 Federal Budget Deficit Projections?
| FY 2026 Budget Deficit Projection | Not yet available from CBO's early 2026 Outlook [^]. |
|---|---|
| CBO Report Status | Future publication, not yet released [^]. |
| Expected Publication Date | Early 2026, around February 2026 [^]. |
Specific CBO projections for the FY 2026 budget deficit are unavailable. The Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) early 2026 'Budget and Economic Outlook', which would contain these specific projections for the U.S. federal budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for fiscal year 2026, has not yet been published. This report is a future publication, with its anticipated release around February 2026 [^]. As the current date precedes the scheduled release, the CBO has not yet made these official projections public.
The future CBO report's anticipated release and scope are known. Available sources refer to the upcoming early 2026 CBO report, indicating its title, expected publication period, and the general subject matter it will cover. This includes the fiscal outlook for the years 2026 to 2036 [^]. Specific data points, statistics, or the projected deficit as a percentage of GDP for FY 2026 from that report cannot be provided at this time. Detailed projections for the federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2026 will become publicly available once the CBO releases its 'Budget and Economic Outlook' in early 2026.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: April 29, 2026
- Expiration: May 06, 2026
- Closes: April 29, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 19 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXEURUSD-26APR2810-T1.18799: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXEURUSD-26APR2810-T1.16200: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXEURUSD-26APR2810-B1.187: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXEURUSD-26APR2810-B1.185: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXEURUSD-26APR2810-B1.183: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
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