Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Rigetti Computing to be the company the US takes a stake in this year, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- US government signed letters of intent with nine quantum computing companies.
- Commerce Department awarded nine quantum firms $2bn for non-controlling equity stakes.
- US government considers strategic equity stakes in defense contractors.
- Discussions for a US government stake in OpenAI began early 2025.
- Anthropic's national security issues could trigger government equity stake discussions.
- US government is not pursuing equity in TSMC or Micron.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spirit Airlines | 6.0% | 2.2% | The US government may take a stake to stabilize the airline industry. |
| Anduril | 32.0% | 19.5% | A US stake in Anduril could bolster advanced defense technology development. |
| Anthropic | 30.0% | 17.8% | A US stake may secure advancements in critical artificial intelligence research. |
| Palantir | 20.0% | 10.1% | The US may invest to secure strategic data analytics and national security interests. |
| OpenAI | 32.0% | 19.5% | A US stake may ensure responsible development of leading artificial intelligence. |
Current Context
The U.S. government now directly invests in national security companies. The Trump administration, in its second term, has implemented a policy of acquiring direct equity stakes in private sector companies deemed critical to national security, moving beyond traditional subsidy models like loans and grants [^][^][^]. As of June 2026, the U.S. government has already acquired equity stakes in companies such as Intel and IBM, as well as several quantum computing and critical mineral firms [^][^][^]. While federal funding through grants and loans remains common, as seen in the June 2026 deal with USA Rare Earth for up to $1.6 billion, it is distinct from, though sometimes part of the same strategic policy framework as, direct equity acquisition [^][^][^][^].
OpenAI discussions highlight prediction markets tracking potential government stakes. OpenAI is currently in ongoing discussions with the White House regarding a potential government equity stake, a topic that has garnered significant attention in prediction markets [^][^][^]. As of early June 2026, prediction markets estimate a 64% probability of this stake occurring [^]. Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are actively monitoring which companies might be next to receive government investment [^][^].
Several other companies are frequently cited for future government stakes. IonQ, Anduril Industries, and Micron Technology are often identified by prediction markets as candidates with high speculative interest for government stakes in 2026 [^][^]. These markets actively track potential targets as the government continues its strategy of direct investment in strategic sectors.
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has traded in a narrow range between 8.0% and 11.0%, with the overall trend being sideways after an initial price adjustment. The most significant movement occurred early in the period when the price jumped from its starting point of 8.0% to 11.0%. This spike appears to be a direct reaction to reports from June 2026 confirming that the U.S. government had already taken equity stakes in several technology and critical mineral companies. This news likely caused traders to increase their assessment of the probability that another investment would occur within the market's timeframe, as it confirmed the government's direct investment policy was actively being implemented.
Since that initial repricing, the market has stabilized at the 11.0% level, which is now acting as a resistance point. The initial price of 8.0% served as a support level before the breakout. Volume analysis shows a notable cluster of activity during the price jump, with 16 contracts traded on June 5, suggesting conviction behind the upward move. However, the total volume of 506 contracts spread over 290 data points indicates generally moderate trading activity. The chart suggests that market sentiment has settled, pricing in the new reality of the government's investment strategy. The flat trading at 11% indicates the market has reached a temporary consensus and is likely awaiting new catalysts or specific news about potential new target companies before making another significant move.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: OpenAI
📈 June 10, 2026: 20.0pp spike
Price increased from 24.0% to 44.0%
What happened: The primary driver was traditional news reporting on June 5, 2026, confirming ongoing, preliminary discussions between the Trump administration and OpenAI regarding a potential US government equity stake [^][^][^]. This news directly addressed the prediction market's topic, likely initiating an upward re-evaluation of the outcome's probability. The subsequent confidential S-1 filing for OpenAI's IPO on June 8 [^][^][^] may have further accelerated this sentiment by highlighting the company's strategic importance, intensifying perceived urgency for the US to secure a stake, leading to the 20.0 percentage point spike on June 10. Social media activity, while present regarding the IPO [^], was not identified as a primary driver for the government stake discussions itself.
📉 June 09, 2026: 14.0pp drop
Price decreased from 40.0% to 26.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 14.0 percentage point drop for OpenAI on June 09, 2026, was a traditional news report published the day prior. On June 08, 2026, WinBuzzer reported that discussions regarding a potential US government equity stake in OpenAI still had "structure/details subject to change and no deal/timeline confirmed" [^]. This news likely tempered market expectations that had become overly optimistic regarding the finalization or immediacy of such a stake, despite ongoing discussions [^][^]. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver in the provided research.
📈 June 05, 2026: 36.0pp spike
Price increased from 19.0% to 55.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 36.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market price for "OpenAI" on June 5, 2026, was a traditional news report. On that date, Tech Startups reported that OpenAI was in talks to give the U.S. government an equity stake in the company, ahead of a potential IPO [^]. This news directly concerned the market's outcome and appeared to coincide with the significant price movement, building on previous acknowledgments by President Trump of exploratory discussions [^][^][^]. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver or significant accelerant based on the provided information.
📈 June 02, 2026: 11.0pp spike
Price increased from 2.0% to 13.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 11.0 percentage point spike in OpenAI's prediction market price on June 2, 2026, was likely the company's official announcement of new enterprise-focused Codex capabilities and the launch of the "OpenAI Deployment Company." This joint venture, capitalized with over $4 billion, aims to embed OpenAI's systems into corporate workflows [^][^]. This significant corporate development, announced precisely on the date of the price movement, served as a direct catalyst for increased market interest and valuation [^][^]. Social media activity does not appear to be a primary driver based on the provided information.
Outcome: Anthropic
📈 June 07, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 39.0% to 49.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the Anthropic price spike on June 07, 2026, was news reporting concerning former President Trump's statements. On that date, reports indicated the US government was considering taking direct equity stakes in AI companies, specifically naming Anthropic among the potential candidates [^]. These traditional news announcements, relaying comments from a key political figure, directly coincided with the market movement [^]. Based on the available information, social media was mostly noise or irrelevant, as the primary source of the information appears to be traditional news reporting on public statements, not direct social media posts.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if the U.S. federal government acquires a direct equity stake, voting shares, or equivalent ownership in Unusual Machines before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. The market opened on May 28, 2026, will close by December 31, 2026, and may close early if a stake acquisition is announced.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rigetti Computing | $0.79 | $0.22 | 79% |
| GlobalFoundries | $0.74 | $0.27 | 73% |
| D-Wave Quantum | $0.72 | $0.29 | 72% |
| Performance Drone Works | $0.61 | $0.47 | 53% |
| Unusual Machines | $0.54 | $0.53 | 52% |
| Neros Technologies | $0.55 | $0.53 | 47% |
| Anduril | $0.34 | $0.68 | 32% |
| OpenAI | $0.32 | $0.69 | 32% |
| Anthropic | $0.30 | $0.71 | 30% |
| Micron | $0.27 | $0.74 | 26% |
| Palantir | $0.21 | $0.80 | 20% |
| Boeing | $0.16 | $0.85 | 16% |
| IonQ | $0.17 | $0.84 | 16% |
| Nvidia | $0.16 | $0.85 | 16% |
| Lockheed Martin | $0.14 | $0.87 | 14% |
| TikTok US | $0.11 | $0.90 | 11% |
| TSMC | $0.11 | $0.90 | 11% |
| Eli Lilly | $0.10 | $0.91 | 10% |
| Freeport-McMoRan | $0.08 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Pfizer | $0.09 | $0.92 | 8% |
| Spirit Airlines | $0.07 | $0.94 | 6% |
Market Discussion
As of June 2026, the administration and leaders of major AI companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI, have engaged in ongoing discussions regarding the federal government potentially acquiring equity stakes in these firms to help seed a proposed Public Wealth Fund [^][^][^][^]. The administration previously took equity stakes in Intel, IBM, and companies in quantum computing and critical minerals during the president's second term, and government stakes were also discussed for a proposed railroad merger and a possible Spirit Airlines bailout [^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets are actively tracking whether the US federal government will take a stake in any company by the end of 2026 [^].
5. What specific supply chain vulnerabilities could prompt the U.S. to take a strategic stake in Boeing or Lockheed Martin?
| Potential U.S. Equity Stakes | Under consideration for Boeing and Lockheed Martin (August 2025) [^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Key Supply Chain Vulnerabilities | Critical mineral dependencies, manufacturing concentration, labor/infrastructure shortages [^][^][^] |
| Pentagon's Current Strategy | Equity investments in solid rocket motors (L3Harris deal) and critical minerals (MP Materials) [^][^][^] |
The U.S. government is considering strategic equity stakes in defense contractors. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick articulated this consideration in August 2025, describing major defense contractors like Boeing and Lockheed Martin as "an arm of the U.S. government" due to their significant reliance on federal contracts [^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Supply chain vulnerabilities drive the Pentagon's strategic investment strategy. These identified vulnerabilities include critical mineral dependencies, particularly for rare earth elements sourced from China, manufacturing concentration in hazardous or capital-intensive sectors such as munitions and solid rocket motors, and broader labor or infrastructure shortages [^][^][^]. The Pentagon has already implemented an "acquisition transformation strategy" that incorporates equity investments in specific supply chain segments. This strategy is exemplified by a $1 billion L3Harris deal for solid rocket motors and investments in critical minerals companies like MP Materials, intended to mitigate fragility, capacity constraints, and dependence on adversarial nations [^][^][^].
Government aims for capacity, domestic production, and long-term deals. The administration's rationale behind these potential stakes is to utilize government investment to incentivize private sector capacity expansion, ensure the "anchoring" of strategic production domestically, and secure more favorable long-term deals for taxpayers. This approach is designed to address critical national security interests without seeking direct operational control over the involved companies [^][^][^][^].
6. What publicly disclosed communications or policy frameworks support the high market probability of a U.S. government stake in OpenAI before 2027?
| Discussions Initiated | Early 2025 (between Trump administration and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| OpenAI Policy Proposal | April 2026 (supports Public Wealth Fund concept) [^][^][^] |
| Sanders' Legislative Proposal | Mandatory 50% equity tax on major AI firms [^][^][^] |
Discussions for a U.S. government stake in OpenAI began early 2025, involving the Trump administration and CEO Sam Altman [^][^][^]. These preliminary talks center on a voluntary equity donation to the U.S. government. The framework for these discussions is the "Public Wealth Fund" concept, which is consistent with OpenAI's April 2026 policy proposal and President Trump's February 2026 executive order on sovereign wealth funds [^][^][^].
Bipartisan interest highlights varied approaches to AI wealth distribution, with proposals ranging from voluntary to mandatory. Senator Bernie Sanders, for instance, introduced the "American A.I. Sovereign Wealth Fund Act," proposing a mandatory 50% equity tax on major AI firms to secure public ownership [^][^][^]. As of June 2026, no formal investment terms, specific equity percentages, or legal mechanisms for the transfer of equity have been finalized [^][^][^]. However, the market probability for a U.S. government stake in OpenAI has notably increased due to these high-level discussions and bipartisan interest in AI wealth distribution [^][^][^].
7. How do U.S.-based Micron and GlobalFoundries differ from Taiwan-based TSMC regarding their eligibility and strategic rationale for a direct U.S. government equity stake?
| TSMC/Micron Equity Stakes | U.S. government officials indicated “no similar plans” for equity stakes in bigger firms like TSMC and Micron increasing U.S. investment [^] |
|---|---|
| GlobalFoundries CHIPS Act Equity | GlobalFoundries stated its CHIPS Act framework “does not involve any type of equity” [^] |
| GlobalFoundries Quantum Initiative Equity | U.S. Department of Commerce to receive an approximately 1% strategic equity investment in a separate quantum initiative involving GlobalFoundries [^][^] |
U.S. government is not pursuing equity in TSMC or Micron. U.S. government officials have clarified that there are no plans to take equity stakes in larger firms increasing U.S. investment, specifically naming Taiwan-based TSMC and U.S.-based Micron [^]. While initial reports had suggested that equity stakes might be considered for CHIPS Act funding recipients, later reporting confirmed this was not the approach taken for TSMC and Micron [^][^]. TSMC CEO C.C. Wei also stated that the U.S. would not acquire a stake in his company [^].
GlobalFoundries has a distinct U.S. government equity investment. In contrast, for U.S.-based GlobalFoundries, its CHIPS Act framework explicitly states it “does not involve any type of equity” [^]. However, a separate arrangement related to a quantum initiative between the U.S. Department of Commerce and GlobalFoundries does include a strategic equity investment. Under this distinct agreement, the U.S. Department of Commerce is set to receive an approximately 1% minority, non-controlling equity stake in a new quantum spinoff or initiative tied to GlobalFoundries [^][^].
8. What is the evidence from government reports and investment patterns suggesting IonQ is a leading candidate for a national security-related equity stake?
| Future Equity Stake Odds | Approximately 32% by 2027 (prediction markets) [^] |
|---|---|
| Major Defense Contract | $151 billion (MDA SHIELD IDIQ) [^] |
| CHIPS R&D Incentives Value | $2 billion (May 2026 announcement) [^] |
IonQ heavily engages in U.S. defense quantum computing initiatives. Its extensive involvement in U.S. defense sector quantum computing and networking technology positions it as a leading candidate for a national security-related government equity stake. The company has secured several significant national security contracts, including a $151 billion MDA SHIELD IDIQ defense contract [^], a $54.5 million project with the Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) [^], and another $21.1 million AFRL project focused on secure quantum networking [^]. Additionally, IonQ participates in DARPA's Heterogeneous Architectures for Quantum (HARQ) program [^].
Government incentives target quantum firms, IonQ a likely future equity recipient. In May 2026, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced $2 billion in CHIPS R&D incentives for nine quantum computing companies [^][^][^][^]. A key condition of this funding is for the U.S. government to take a minority equity stake in each recipient [^][^][^][^]. Although IonQ was not among the initial nine companies to receive equity-linked funding in this announcement [^][^][^][^], prediction markets estimate approximately 32% odds of a future government equity stake for IonQ before 2027 [^]. This identifies IonQ as a leading candidate despite its initial exclusion from the first round of awards [^].
9. What national security or competitive milestones for Anthropic or Palantir could trigger a government equity stake negotiation in 2026?
| Anthropic Equity Talks Status | Not currently in talks with administration (as of June 2026 reporting) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Palantir Equity Justification | Deepening DoD program-of-record status and battlefield integration [^][^] |
| US Government Equity Discussions | Preliminary discussions with major AI firms about government buying shares [^][^][^][^] |
Anthropic's national security issues could trigger government equity discussions. Ongoing concerns such as "Pentagon/DoD supply-chain risk" and a contract dispute over Claude access, which escalated in February-March 2026 and involves a continued legal battle, are key potential triggers [^][^][^]. The government has a strong incentive to ensure continuous access to this labeled-in-risk vendor [^][^][^]. Additionally, the administration's move towards faster AI adoption for national security through NSPM-11 in June 2026, or any shift from compliance to governance leverage, could catalyze equity as a tool to align incentives and mitigate future risks [^][^][^]. However, contemporaneous reports indicate that Anthropic is not presently engaged in discussions with the administration regarding equity provision [^][^][^].
Palantir's essential battlefield role might prompt a strategic government investment. A significant competitive or national security milestone that could lead to a government equity stake is the deepening of its DoD program-of-record status and its comprehensive integration into battlefield operations [^][^]. If Palantir's platforms become so essential that their removal would compromise battlefield intelligence, it could justify a government "strategic investment," which would be distinct from a traditional rescue stake [^][^]. Market commentary suggests that for profitable firms like Palantir, a legislative or executive expansion of federal investment authority would be necessary to facilitate such an investment [^][^].
Legal mechanisms and political momentum underpin any government equity acquisition. Across both Anthropic and Palantir, a fundamental prerequisite for any equity purchase is the existence of a legal or authoritative mechanism [^][^][^]. The feasibility of such a mechanism is dependent on whether Congress restricts or expands relevant authorities, for example, through discussions around DPA modernization [^][^][^]. As of June 2026 reporting, senior U.S. officials have engaged in preliminary discussions with major AI companies about the government acquiring shares through voluntary equity cession [^][^][^][^]. Furthermore, former President Trump has publicly indicated the possibility of federal equity stakes for leading AI firms, creating a broader political momentum [^][^][^][^]. This environment makes any company-specific national security event more likely to evolve into equity negotiations in 2026 [^][^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The market resolution for Polymarket extquotesblleft Which companies will the US take a stake in. extquotesblright resolves by December 31, 2026 (11:59 PM ET), if a US federal government stake is acquired, with extquotesblctakes a stake extquotesblc defined around equity/voting/convertible rights or equivalent ownership [^][^]. Current prediction market examples for 2026 candidates show Anduril at 28% implied probability and Boeing at 23% as leading outcomes on Polymarket [^]. CNBC, citing Kalshi trader odds, reports IonQ at 32%, Anduril at 31%, and Micron at 28% for 2026 stake outcomes [^].
Reporting indicates US officials discuss equity-stake arrangements with major AI firms, with OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI named as companies under discussion [^] [^] . However, these are presented as discussions or possibilities rather than documented completed equity transfers in the reviewed sources [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The US government signed letters of intent with nine quantum computing companies on May 21, 2026, to receive minority, non-controlling equity stakes.
- Trigger: These companies include IBM, GlobalFoundries, D-Wave, Rigetti Computing, Infleqtion, Atom Computing, PsiQuantum, Quantinuum, and Diraq [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The market resolution for Polymarket extquotesblleft Which companies will the US take a stake in?
- Trigger: Extquotesblright resolves by December 31, 2026 (11:59 PM ET), if a US federal government stake is acquired, with extquotesblctakes a stake extquotesblc defined around equity/voting/convertible rights or equivalent ownership [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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