Meta family daily active people in Q2
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Since last update (~24h): Model conviction for "Above 3.58 billion" dropped -8.1pp, flipping the edge as the market held.
- For "Above 3.64 billion", model probability decreased -8.8pp, widening the edge while market was flat.
- Overall confidence decreased -1.0pp; the model's headline probability dropped -2.4pp, widening the edge.
- Above 3.56 billion is expected, supported by historical Q1 to Q2 growth.
- Growth above 3.6 billion faces headwinds from persistent geopolitical disruptions.
- Higher thresholds are challenged by new EU regulatory scrutiny on user engagement.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.68 billion | 2.0% | 2.7% | Model higher by 0.7pp |
| Above 3.66 billion | 8.0% | 7.4% | Market higher by 0.6pp |
| Above 3.62 billion | 38.0% | 44.4% | Model higher by 6.4pp |
| Above 3.6 billion | 54.0% | 78.0% | Model higher by 24.0pp |
| Above 3.64 billion | 18.0% | 23.3% | Model higher by 5.3pp |
Current Context
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves "YES" if Meta Platforms Inc. reports over 3,620,000,000 family daily active people in Q2 2026, and "NO" otherwise. The outcome is verified by Fiscal.ai.
The market opened on May 28, 2026, and closes once the event occurs, or by August 28, 2026, 4:00pm EDT at the latest, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.56 billion | $0.94 | $0.07 | 93% |
| Above 3.58 billion | $0.86 | $0.15 | 85% |
| Above 3.59 billion | $0.82 | $0.24 | 82% |
| Above 3.6 billion | $0.54 | $0.47 | 54% |
| Above 3.61 billion | $0.48 | $0.58 | 47% |
| Above 3.62 billion | $0.39 | $0.62 | 38% |
| Above 3.64 billion | $0.18 | $0.83 | 18% |
| Above 3.66 billion | $0.08 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Above 3.68 billion | $0.03 | $0.98 | 2% |
| Above 3.63 billion | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Above 3.63 billion | $0.28 | $0.78 | 0% |
| Above 3.65 billion | $0.10 | $0.93 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Meta Platforms is scheduled to report its Q2 2026 financial results on Wednesday, July 29, 2026 [^][^][^]. As of July 14, 2026, the Q2 2026 Family Daily Active People (DAP) figure has not been reported; the most recent available is 3.56 billion on average for March 2026 from the Q1 2026 report [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Prediction market contracts for Meta's Q2 2026 DAP reflect speculation on whether the figure will exceed specific thresholds like 3.6 billion or 3.62 billion [^].
4. What major geopolitical or regulatory developments in key international markets during Q2 2026 could materially affect Meta's reported DAP figures?
| Q1 2026 Family Daily Active People | Quarter-over-quarter decline [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Manus acquisition value | $2 billion [^][^] |
| EU regulatory actions Q2 2026 | Pause on AI model training; warnings on 'addictive' design [^][^][^] |
5. How do third-party estimates on user engagement and app download trends for Q2 2026 compare between Meta's platforms and key competitors like TikTok and Snap?
| Meta Q1 2026 Time Spent Growth | Facebook 10.3%, Instagram 9.8% YoY (Q1 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| TikTok Q1 2026 Engagement Growth | 6.7% (Q1 2026) [^][^] |
| Meta Q1 2026 Daily Active People | 3.56 billion (Q1 2026) [^] |
6. Based on Meta's historical performance, what are the typical seasonal trends for daily active people growth between Q1 and Q2?
| Historical Q1-Q2 DAP Growth Range | 0.35% to 4.66% (2019-2025) [^] |
|---|---|
| March 2026 DAP | 3.56 billion [^][^][^] |
| Q2 2026 DAP > 3.6B Probability | Approx. 85% [^][^] |
7. What third-party app analytics data is available to track user activity and download trends for Meta's apps throughout Q2 2026?
| AppGoblin Data Update | Q2 2026, updated June 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Similarweb Tracking Scope | Usage, engagement, growth, audience, SDKs, store performance for Meta apps [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Public Q2 2026 Meta App Data | Not available as a published dataset from third-party analytics [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
8. Which specific product developments or marketing campaigns by Meta during Q2 2026 are expected to have the most significant impact on daily active people growth?
| Q1 2026 Family Daily Active People | 3.56 billion (March 2026 average) [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 Family DAP Year-over-year growth | 4% [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Q4 2025 Family Daily Active People | 3.58 billion [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: August 28, 2026
- Closes: August 28, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Meta Platforms is scheduled to report its Q2 2026 financial results on Wednesday, July 29, 2026, after the US market close [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: A conference call will follow at 5:00 PM ET [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: For Q1 2026, Meta reported Family daily active people (DAP) of 3.56 billion for March 2026, which represented a 4% year-over-year increase [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Several catalysts will likely drive market probabilities.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.