Will Trump run for a third term?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Trump to announce his candidacy for a third term before Election Day 2028, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Trump family's new non-political ventures suggest a strategic pivot.
- Dismissed Georgia RICO charges remove a potential presidential disqualification.
- Conventional campaign staff hiring typically begins over a year before Iowa caucuses.
- Key Q2 2025 fundraising data for GOP PACs remains unavailable.
- Early head-to-head 2028 GOP primary polling data is largely unavailable.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 7.0% | 4.7% | Trump family's new non-political business ventures in 2025 suggest a pivot to private enterprise. |
| Before 2028 | 14.0% | 9.4% | Trump family's new non-political business ventures in 2025 suggest a pivot to private enterprise. |
| Before Election Day | 25.0% | 16.9% | Trump family's new non-political business ventures in 2025 suggest a pivot to private enterprise. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the provided chart data, the prediction market for "Will Trump run for a third term?" has exhibited a stable, sideways trading pattern since its inception. The perceived probability has been confined to a narrow range, trading between a low of 4.0% and a high of 8.6%. The market opened at its peak of 8.6% and has since drifted down to its current price of 7.0%. This price action suggests an early, modest level of belief that has slightly eroded over time but has not experienced any dramatic shifts. The 8.6% level acts as an initial resistance, while the 4.0% mark has served as a clear support level that has held so far.
The trading volume for this market has been relatively light, with a total of 759 contracts traded over 311 data points. The low volume indicates a lack of strong market conviction and suggests that price movements are likely driven by small trades rather than a large influx of capital reacting to new information. As no specific news or external events were provided for context, the price fluctuations within the established range appear to be the result of general market mechanics and positioning rather than reactions to significant developments. Overall, the chart reflects a market sentiment that assigns a consistent but very low probability to this event occurring. The lack of volatility and volume suggests traders are largely in a holding pattern, waiting for more definitive information before establishing more significant positions.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A "YES" resolution occurs if Donald Trump publicly announces his candidacy for U.S. President in 2028, including running for a party's nomination, before November 7, 2028. This announcement must come from Trump or his official campaign, be for the specific office and election year, and be reported by a listed source agency. A "NO" resolution occurs if no such qualifying announcement is made by the deadline.
The market will close early upon such an announcement; otherwise, it closes on November 7, 2028, at 10:00 AM EST, with projected payouts 30 minutes after closing. Employees of the specified source agencies are prohibited from trading.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | $0.07 | $0.95 | 7% |
| Before 2028 | $0.15 | $0.86 | 14% |
| Before Election Day | $0.25 | $0.78 | 25% |
Market Discussion
The market currently indicates a 25% probability of Donald Trump announcing a run for President in 2028 before Election Day. Traders supporting a "Yes" outcome often cite Trump's unpredictable nature and a perceived willingness to push legal boundaries, with some even suggesting a third-party run. Conversely, "No" positions are fueled by direct opposition or by highlighting the market's strict rules, which require a formal campaign announcement from Trump himself or his official campaign to resolve the market to "Yes," thereby excluding casual remarks or jokes.
4. Is Q2 2025 Fundraising Data for GOP PACs Available?
| Save America Q2 2025 Fundraising | Not yet publicly available (Future reporting period) [^] |
|---|---|
| Republican National Committee Q2 2025 Fundraising | Not yet publicly available (Future reporting period) [^] |
| Non-Trump 2028 GOP Challengers PACs Q2 2025 Fundraising | Not yet publicly available (Future reporting period) [^] |
Q2 2025 fundraising data for key committees remains unavailable. Specific fundraising figures for Save America, the Republican National Committee (RNC), and the PACs of potential non-Trump 2028 GOP challengers are not publicly accessible at this time. This is because Q2 2025 represents a future reporting period, and such fundraising data is typically disclosed after the conclusion of the relevant reporting period.
Historical FEC records lack future fundraising projections. While past financial activity for political committees, including Save America [^] and the Republican National Committee [^], is accessible through FEC disclosure forms, these records do not contain projections or actual figures for future quarters. Consequently, providing factual fundraising ratios for Q2 2025 based on verifiable public sources is currently not possible.
5. Can a Convicted Felon Serve as U.S. President?
| Georgia RICO Case Status | Charges dismissed (Georgia prosecutor) [^] |
|---|---|
| Federal Jan 6 Max Penalty | 20 years in prison for most serious charges [^] |
| Presidential Eligibility | U.S. Constitution does not explicitly prevent convicted felon from running/holding office [^] |
Georgia RICO charges were dismissed, eliminating any sentencing or disqualification. The charges against Donald Trump in the Georgia Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) case were dismissed by the Georgia prosecutor, which means there is no potential sentencing or disqualification arising from this specific case [^]. Had the case proceeded to conviction, Georgia's RICO Act outlined a potential prison sentence of 5 to 20 years, a fine of $25,000, or a fine of three times the money gained from the criminal activity, whichever was greater [^].
Federal January 6th charges carry significant penalties, but disqualification is complex. In contrast, the federal January 6th case involves charges such as conspiracy to defraud the United States and obstruction of an official proceeding [^]. The maximum penalty for the most serious of these federal charges is 20 years in prison [^]. Regarding potential disqualification under the 14th Amendment, Section 3 (the Insurrection Clause), the Supreme Court has ruled that states lack the authority to disqualify a presidential candidate based on this clause. However, the Court did not address whether Congress could enact legislation to enforce Section 3 for federal officeholders [^].
A federal conviction would not legally bar presidency, but practical hurdles exist. Legally, a conviction in the federal January 6th case before 2027 would not inherently bar an individual from holding the office of President, as the U.S. Constitution sets specific eligibility requirements (age, citizenship, residency) but does not include a prohibition based on a felony conviction [^]. While a conviction could lead to imprisonment, practically impeding the ability to serve, the Supreme Court's current stance limits state-level enforcement of the 14th Amendment, Section 3, leaving the question of potential congressional action regarding federal office open [^].
6. Are 2028 GOP Primary Head-to-Head Polls Available for Early States?
| Polling Type Primarily Found | National multi-candidate hypothetical primary fields (RealClearPolling, RealClearPolitics) [^] |
|---|---|
| Availability of State-Level Head-to-Head Data | Largely unavailable for Iowa, NH, SC (Jan 2025-Jan 2026) [^] |
| Feasibility of Early Polling Trend Analysis | Difficult for specific state-level, head-to-head contests four years out [^] |
Specific head-to-head polling data for 2028 GOP rivals is largely unavailable. Comprehensive head-to-head polling data specifically tracking potential 2028 GOP primary rivals Ron DeSantis, Glenn Youngkin, and J.D. Vance against Donald Trump in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina between January 2025 and January 2026 is not readily accessible in the provided research. Most available information pertains to national multi-candidate hypothetical primary fields or general nomination odds, rather than specific state-level head-to-head matchups or trends over this particular timeframe [^].
National aggregators present hypothetical multi-candidate primary fields. Platforms like RealClearPolling and RealClearPolitics for the 2028 Republican Presidential Nomination primarily show general support levels for various potential candidates within a multi-candidate field [^]. While these platforms update averages based on new polls, specific polls detailing head-to-head matchups in early primary states for the defined period are not consistently tracked or presented to demonstrate an evolution in numbers [^]. Early polling for presidential elections four years out is generally limited, particularly at the state level and for direct head-to-head contests, making consistent trend analysis for such an early window difficult [^].
Some sources mention candidates but lack specific head-to-head evolution. For instance, a Rasmussen Reports article notes J.D. Vance holding a 'commanding lead in 2028 GOP Primary Field,' but this refers to his standing within a multi-candidate race rather than a head-to-head against Donald Trump [^]. Similarly, RealClearPolitics provides a page for the '2028 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary,' yet it typically aggregates polls that may not exclusively feature head-to-head matchups between the specified candidates or cover the exact timeframe for showing evolving numbers [^]. Overall, the web research primarily points to national hypothetical primary polling data, often without the granular, state-specific, and head-to-head evolution sought for this early stage of the 2028 election cycle [^].
7. What New Business Ventures Are the Trump Family Launching in 2025?
| Projected Family Business Revenue | $4 billion after re-election [^] |
|---|---|
| American Bitcoin Funds Raised | $220 million [^] |
| India Office Project Sales | $289 million by March 2025 [^] |
The Trump family businesses are diversifying into new, non-political sectors. The Trump Organization and its immediate family members are initiating several significant new, non-political business ventures and capital commitments in 2025, indicating a strategic pivot beyond traditional real estate. Following Donald Trump's re-election, his family's businesses are projected to generate $4 billion in revenue, with a new focus on emerging sectors such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), cryptocurrency, and nuclear energy [^].
Key family members are launching distinct ventures in emerging industries. This diversification includes the launch of American Data Centers by Dominari Holdings, involving Donald Jr. and Eric Trump, to develop data infrastructure [^]. Furthermore, Eric Trump's American Bitcoin successfully raised $220 million through a private stock sale specifically to acquire more Bitcoin [^]. Separately, Ivanka Trump debuted a new produce business in May 2025, marking her entry into the agricultural sector [^].
Traditional real estate projects continue alongside new investments. Alongside these new ventures, the Trump Organization remains involved in established real estate projects. A new Trump-branded office project in India is expected to achieve $289 million in sales by March 2025 [^], and the Trump International Golf and Residential Project in Hung Yen, Vietnam, has broken ground [^]. These ongoing developments, combined with significant capital commitments in technology, finance, and agriculture, highlight a long-term strategic pivot towards diversified business interests.
8. When Do Conventional Presidential Campaigns Begin Key Activities for Iowa Caucuses?
| Conventional Staff Hiring Start | December 2026 (based on McCain's 2006 timeline) [^] |
|---|---|
| Conventional Staff Hiring Range | Late 2026 to mid-2027 (based on McCain, Romney, Trump) [^] |
| Conventional Iowa Media Buys Start | January 2028 (based on Romney and Trump) [^] |
National campaign staff hiring typically begins well over a year before Iowa caucuses. For a conventional campaign trajectory targeting the 2028 presidential race, national-level campaign staff hiring could commence as early as December 2026. This aligns with John McCain's 2006 organizational timeline, approximately 14 months before the 2008 Iowa Caucuses [^]. Other non-incumbent nominees, like Mitt Romney, formed an exploratory committee in April 2011, roughly nine months before the January 2012 Iowa Caucuses [^]. Donald Trump announced his candidacy in June 2015, approximately seven to eight months before the February 2016 Iowa Caucuses [^]. Based on these precedents, a conventional range for initial national staff hiring for a 2028 campaign would span from late 2026 to mid-2027.
Paid media buys in Iowa traditionally start approximately one month before the caucuses. In contrast to staff hiring, paid media advertising in Iowa on a conventional trajectory would typically not begin until much closer to the caucus date. The last two non-incumbent Republican nominees who ran in contested primaries initiated their paid media advertising in Iowa approximately one month prior to the caucuses. Mitt Romney launched his first TV ad in Iowa on December 1, 2011, for the January 2012 caucuses [^]. Similarly, Donald Trump's first TV ad aired in early January 2016 for the February 2016 caucuses [^]. Therefore, for a hypothetical February 2028 Iowa caucus, conventional paid media buys in Iowa would likely commence in January 2028. This indicates that making such buys in 2026 would be significantly earlier than past conventional patterns.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis unavailable.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2028
- Closes: November 07, 2028
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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