Palantir total customers in Q1 2026
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Palantir requires 72 new customers, less than recent quarterly additions.
- Strong AIP bootcamp conversion and increasing volume drive customer growth.
- Expanding channel partnerships significantly contribute to commercial customer growth.
- Potential new government contracts, including NHS FDP, could add customers.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1080 | 6.0% | 10.3% | Strong bootcamp conversion rates and new partnerships could push Palantir above 1080 customers. |
| above 1040 | 13.0% | 20.6% | Palantir needs 72 new customers, fewer than recent additions, aided by strong bootcamp conversions. |
| above 1100 | 5.0% | 8.7% | Increasing bootcamp volume, potential government contracts, and partnerships could help Palantir exceed 1100 customers. |
| above 1060 | 11.0% | 17.8% | Increasing bootcamp volume and expanding channel partnerships could drive Palantir above 1060 customers. |
| Above 1020 | 49.0% | 58.9% | Palantir's strong bootcamp conversion rates and increasing volume make reaching 1020 customers achievable. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 20, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 38.0% to 46.0%
Outcome: Above 1020
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to YES if Palantir Technologies Inc. reports above 1020 total customers in Q1 2026; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The outcome is verified by Fiscal.ai. The market opens on April 6, 2026, at 2:55 pm EDT, closing either after the outcome occurs or by June 3, 2026, at 4:00 pm EDT, with early closure if the event happens and payout 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 980 | $0.93 | $0.11 | 94% |
| Above 960 | $0.97 | $0.06 | 93% |
| Above 1000 | $0.84 | $0.23 | 83% |
| Above 1020 | $0.52 | $0.51 | 49% |
| above 1040 | $0.10 | $0.94 | 13% |
| above 1060 | $0.11 | $0.95 | 11% |
| Above 1080 | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| above 1100 | $0.07 | $0.98 | 5% |
| Above 1120 | $0.03 | $1.00 | 5% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What is the Conversion Rate and Volume of Palantir's AIP Bootcamps?
| AIP Bootcamp Conversion Rate | 75-85% within two quarters (Palantir Q4 2025 earnings call transcript [^]) |
|---|---|
| Q4 2024 Bootcamps Completed | 110 (Palantir Q4 2024 [^]) |
| 2025 Projected Avg. Quarterly Bootcamps | 170-190 (Palantir [^]) |
6. How Many New Government Customers Expected Before Q4 2025?
| UK NHS FDP Potential Deployments | 42 Integrated Care Systems (ICSs) [^] |
|---|---|
| Palantir UK FDP Role | Lead supplier [^] |
| US DoD Enterprise Contracts Status | Already secured, no new bids identified before Q4 2025 [^] |
7. Does Palantir Disclose Gross Churn Rates by Customer Segment?
| Gross Churn Rate Disclosure | Not publicly disclosed for specific ACV tiers or customer types [^] |
|---|---|
| Primary Reporting Focus | Overall customer count growth, U.S. commercial customer expansion, and net dollar retention [^] |
| Existing Client Spending | Existing clients are spending significantly more, contributing to strong net retention [^] |
8. How Do Palantir's Channel Partnerships Drive Commercial Growth?
| PwC UK Partnership | Multi-year, multi-million-pound agreement in November 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 U.S. Commercial Customer Growth | 69% year-over-year [^] |
| Channel Initiative Traction | Significant traction reported during Q4 2025 earnings call [^] |
9. What is Palantir's required customer growth rate to reach its target?
| Starting Customer Count (Q2 2024) | 509 [^], [^] |
|---|---|
| Target Customer Count (Q1 2026) | 1040 [^] |
| Required Avg. Quarterly Additions | 75.86 [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 03, 2026
- Closes: June 03, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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