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- Marriott total rooms in Q1
Marriott total rooms in Q1
Short Answer
1. Executive Verdict
- Marriott's net rooms growth met lower-end medium-term targets in Q4 2025.
- A large global development pipeline supports continued room expansion.
- 57% of the development pipeline is signed but not yet under construction.
- High interest rates may cause financing delays, constraining room growth.
- The development pipeline is heavily concentrated in Asia Pacific and EMEA.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.82 million | 18.0% | 15.9% | Market higher by 2.1pp |
| Above 1.8 million | 41.0% | 35.6% | Market higher by 5.4pp |
| Above 1.92 million | 1.0% | 5.5% | Model higher by 4.5pp |
| Above 2.04 million | 6.0% | 5.5% | Market higher by 0.5pp |
| Above 1.96 million | 5.0% | 5.5% | Model higher by 0.5pp |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 1.82 million
📈 April 25, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 12.0% to 20.0%
Outcome: Above 1.84 million
📉 April 22, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 14.0% to 6.0%
📈 April 18, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 5.0% to 14.0%
Outcome: Above 1.8 million
📈 April 17, 2026: 46.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 47.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if Marriott International reports over 1,800,000.0 total rooms for Q1 2026; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The outcome will be verified using Fiscal.ai. The market will close early if the event occurs, or by June 5, 2026, at 7:00 am EDT, with projected payouts 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| above 1.76 million | $1.00 | $0.05 | 95% |
| Above 1.8 million | $0.41 | $0.63 | 41% |
| Above 1.82 million | $0.17 | $0.87 | 18% |
| Above 1.84 million | $0.07 | $0.98 | 6% |
| Above 2.04 million | $0.03 | $1.00 | 6% |
| Above 1.96 million | $0.04 | $0.99 | 5% |
| Above 1.92 million | $0.04 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 2 million | $0.03 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above 1.78 million | $0.97 | $0.07 | 0% |
| Above 1.88 million | $0.05 | $0.99 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. How Does Marriott's Net Rooms Growth Compare to Targets?
| Q4 2025 Net Rooms Growth | 5.0% (year-over-year) [^] |
|---|---|
| Full Year 2025 Net Rooms Growth | 4.7% [^] |
| Medium-Term Growth Target | 5.0%-5.5% [^] |
6. What is Marriott's Development Pipeline in Asia Pacific and MEA?
| Global Pipeline Share (APEC excl China + MEA) | Approximately 31.1% [^] |
|---|---|
| Rooms in APEC excl China + MEA Pipeline | 178,000 rooms [^] |
| Saudi Arabia Expansion by EOY 2025 | Over 20 new properties and more than 4,000 rooms [^] |
7. What is Marriott's M&A Appetite and Financial Capacity for Growth?
| Cash and Cash Equivalents | $0.4 billion (Q1 2025) [1, p [^]. 5] [^] |
|---|---|
| Total Debt | $12.3 billion (Q1 2025) [1, p [^]. 5] [^] |
| Available Revolving Credit | $4.5 billion (Q1 2025) [1, p [^]. 30] [^] |
8. What is Marriott's average annual room removal rate and contract status?
| Average Annual Room Removal Rate | Approximately 1.39% (2020-2023) [^] |
|---|---|
| Host Hotels & Resorts Contract Term | Weighted-average 11.5 years remaining (as of Dec 2023) [^] |
| Service Properties Trust Contract Expiration | January 31, 2036 (for 97 hotels) [^] |
9. How Do Hotel Investors View Debt Availability and Project Delays?
| Investors Expect Improved Debt Availability | 44% anticipate more capital in 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| Marriott Global Pipeline Rooms | 610,000 rooms at year-end 2025 [^] |
| Marriott Pipeline Vulnerable to Delays | 57% (345,000 rooms) signed but not yet under construction [^] |
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 05, 2026
- Closes: June 05, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis unavailable.
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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